This Week in Dynasty
Hey guys and gals, welcome to This Week in Dynasty. This is a new feature this year where we're going to discuss relevant developments from around the league with a dynasty slant. Everything is fair game, from high-level strategy to nitty-gritty player evals. This week features an abbreviated column as we wait for the season to kick off. If you have an suggestions for topics you'd like to see covered in this space, or if you'd just like to join the conversation, feel free to let me know on Twitter at @AdamHarstad.
The Big Takeaway
It's nearly here. After 8 months of anticipating, ranking, mocking, researching, discussing, drafting, and waiting, Week 1 is finally upon us. We've seen too many of our favorite players leave home or get forced out, and we'll have to adjust to seeing Ed Reed in the Texas heat, Darrelle Revis in the Florida humidity, Wes Welker in the Denver altitude, and Brian Urlacher in the studio air conditioning. We've seen too many of our new favorite players succumb to injury, submit to surgery, or fall to suspension. We've seen too many of our old favorite players in court, fighting against an institution they believe has done them wrong. We learned that people still use fax machines, (although apparently not very well). For an all-to-brief moment, events in New England managed to remind us that some things are bigger than football.
This Thursday night at 8:30 EST, we put it all behind us. Matt Prater or Justin Tucker will put leather to pigskin, we'll all hold our breath as Jacoby Jones or Trindon Holliday stands with his eyes to the sky, and with the suddenness of an electric return, a bone-jarring tackle, or (most likely, given the venue), a ball sailing harmlessly through the end zone, football will be here again. Suddenly, everyone will begin keeping score again. The points will matter. The games will count. The plays will be remembered.
Knowing the NFL, we'll all have plenty to discuss in this space next week. Contenders and pretenders will both stand up and announce themselves to the world, and we'll be tasked with sorting out which is which. Stars will disappoint, and we'll watch intently, hoping to discern which performances are harbingers of things to come, and which are one-week aberrations destined to be forgotten. Week 1 last year brought us surprise top-12 finishes from Reggie Wayne, Demaryius Thomas, and James Jones, giving us our first clue that they would dramatically outperform expectations. It also brought us 20-point games and top-3 finishes from both Kevin Ogletree and Stephen Hill, who combined to reach double-digit fantasy points just once more all season. After one week last year, we knew that Robert Griffin was a star and Matthew Stafford was a bust- never mind that we also knew that Mark Sanchez was in line for a career year and Cam Newton was about to suffer a major sophomore slump. Week 1 is a dangerous time for dynasty leaguers. After an offseason with very little to go on, everything seems more significant than it is; at the same time, with a long season still ahead, everything seems less significant than it truly is, as well. We must walk a fine line to avoid reading either too much or too little into any one performance.
In truth, week 1 doesn't provide clarity so much as it provides an illusion of clarity. Any results that confirm our earlier beliefs seem significant. Any results that contradict our prior opinions seems like a fluke. Somehow, we manage to emerge from an entire week of NFL action even more convinced than ever that we were right all along.
While it may fail to deliver the clarity and insight we've been hoping for as fantasy owners, week 1 never fails to live up to our expectations as football fans. A new season of football is a special kind of magic all its own. Today, for the first and the last time, every team remains undefeated with reason for hope. For some, the hope will last for months. For others, it will last weeks. For the unlucky few that are beset by early injuries, it might only last hours. Eventually, 31 fan bases will be left shaking their heads and wondering where they went wrong. In fantasy leagues, every team but one will spend their January looking back at what they could have done differently. But today, for one last glorious day, everyone is still a winner. The season has not yet kicked off, but the anticipation is building.
It's nearly here.
Heard Around the Water Cooler
A stupid prediction can travel halfway around Twitter while smart, nuanced football talk is putting on its cleats-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)Just a quick daily fantasy football thought, still have to be contrarian to hit big [lineups]. If everyone plays same values, where is your edge?
-Bryan Fontaine (@Bryan_Fontaine)
Common advice in dyno is to make sure you have a good mix of youth and vets. This advice is poison. Ignore it. Peaks win you titles. Crashes win you #1 rookie picks. Average seasons win you nothing.-Adam Harstad (@AdamHarstad)
I couldn't be more excited for the Terrell Pryor experiment. He looks legitimately crappy as an NFL QB and yet... FANTASY POINTS!-Fantasy Douche (@FantasyDouche)
Gronkowski is a 2nd round pick if he misses just 2 gms. He'll battle Graham for PPG crown. 1st round #fantasy pick if you knew he'd start 14-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)Ron Gronkowski is BACK practicing.-Doug Kyed (@DougKyedNESN)(Ed. Note: I'm assuming he meant Rob) Re: Da'Rick Rogers, I was told by an insider his problem is 100% attitude. Coaches cannot stand him. Until he changes, he will bounce around
-Barbara Millera (@_barabara_mi)
What's goin 12th man just checkn in ...I'm making serious progress ...keep an eye on week 7...don't hang them 11's up.....we workn-Percy Harvin (@Percy_Harvin)Welp, that's two hours of trying to create a kicker model that I'm not ever getting back.-Fantasy Douche (@FantasyDouche)
(Ed. note: Seriously, projecting kickers sucks.)
Final Thoughts
Normally, I'd take this opportunity to offer some thoughts and observations on the week's action. Lacking any real football to comment on, now seems like as good of a time as any to engage in the most pointless and humiliating task any prognosticator can find himself faced with: making predictions.
Dynasty players whose value will be much higher 2 months from now: Robert Griffin III, Ryan Tannehill, Demarco Murray, Stevan Ridley, Percy Harvin, Michael Crabtree, Jermichael Finley
Dynasty players whose value will be much lower 2 months from now: Matthew Stafford, Arian Foster, Darren McFadden, Lamar Miller, Michael Floyd, Kenbrell Thompkins, Zach Sudfeld, Owen Daniels
Your guess is as good as mine: Josh Freeman, Montee Ball, Ronnie Hillman, Kenny Britt, Vernon Davis
Best of luck to everyone in their week 1 games. I'll see you back here next week with plenty of NFL action to break down and plenty of dynasty implications to discuss!
