Hey guys and gals, welcome to This Week in Dynasty. This is a new feature this year where we're going to discuss relevant developments from around the league with a dynasty slant. Everything is fair game, from high-level strategy to nitty-gritty player evals. If you have an suggestions for topics you'd like to see covered in this space, or if you'd just like to join the conversation, feel free to let me know on Twitter at @AdamHarstad.
The Big Takeaway
Yesterday afternoon I was busy putting the finishing touches on a piece about what, exactly, makes a player "valuable" in dynasty. I got everything wrapped up early this week, then silenced my phone and unplugged so I could spend the evening with my wife and friends celebrating my son's first birthday. We had a nice little party, ate some cake and ice cream, opened some presents, and then sent our guests on their way and put the baby to bed. I cleaned up a bit and then decided to quickly check my phone before heading in to bed, myself. And that's when I saw that my email inbox and twitter timeline had been blown up with news that, in perhaps the most unexpected trade of all time, Trent Richardson was now an Indianapolis Colt. So general discussions about "value" and "worth" will have to wait a week, because this news is too momentous to leave unaddressed.
My initial take on the trade is overwhelmingly positive for Trent Richardson. Indianapolis' offense is substantially better than Cleveland's, and there will be more production to go around. Andrew Luck should be around for another decade at least, giving Richardson long-term stability. From a fantasy standpoint, this seems like a good thing(™) with no negatives to speak of. After that initial optimism subsides a bit, though, I think this trade still does raise some concerns. Entering the season, Trent Richardson was the consensus #1 or #2 running back in dynasty, and many (including yours truly) rated him as the #1 overall player, regardless of position. These rankings were based off of two key points. The first was Richardson's age, and the second was his talent, or at least the perceptions of his talent. I think this trade does carry implications for that latter point.
If we want to look at star running backs to get traded, four names jump out as comparable to Trent Richardson: Clinton Portis, Marshall Faulk, Herschel Walker, and Eric Dickerson. In terms of compensation received, the Portis, Walker, and Dickerson trades are not very flattering comparisons for Richardson. Herschel Walker was famously traded (along with two of Dallas's third round draft picks) for five players, three first round picks, three second round picks, and a third round pick. The Eric Dickerson trade is less famous (because St. Louis squandered the draft picks they received in compensation), but no less lopsided- Dickerson commanded three first round picks, three second round picks, and a pair of veteran RBs. Clinton Portis was traded for Champ Bailey- a former top-10 draft pick at cornerback coming off of four consecutive pro bowl appearances- and a high 2nd round pick. Trent Richardson, on the other hand, netted only a 2013 1st round draft pick from Indianapolis. Indianapolis won 11 games and made the playoffs in 2012; while some regression is expected in 2013, their draft pick is still likely to fall in the latter half of the round, and the addition of Richardson himself will just push that pick even later. Trent Richardson commanded more in trade than did Marshall Faulk, who was sent to the Rams for a second and fifth round draft pick in the 1999 draft… but Faulk was only traded because he was dissatisfied with his contract and threatening to hold out. Portis and Dickerson were both traded during contract squabbles, as well. Trent Richardson has been a model citizen to this point, and had several years remaining on his rookie contract at an extremely team-friendly cost. By all reports, the Browns have already paid over $13 million of Richardson's $20 million contract, leaving the Colts on the hook for just about $6.6 million over the next three seasons. For comparison purposes, that's pretty similar to the 3 year, $6 million contract the New York Jets gave Chris Ivory this last offseason. For the Indianapolis Colts to receive Richardson's services so cheaply- both in terms of draft picks and cash compensation- suggests that the league simply did not value Trent Richardson on par with those other four running backs to hit the trade market.
Now, one could easily argue that the league is different today than it was 25 years ago, and that running backs simply do not command the same kind of value. That's a fair point, but the league is not different today than it was ONE year ago, when Cleveland traded the #4 overall pick plus their selections in the 4th, 5th, and 7th rounds to move up to #3 and earn the rights to select Trent Richardson. The league is no more pass-dominated today than it was when Trent Richardson the prospect was a consensus top-10 pick. Running backs are no more fungible today than they were in 2012. If Trent Richardson's value has declined, it's not because the position he plays is getting further devalued, it's because opinions of his talent are lower today than they were a year ago. And that's a piece of negative information dynasty league owners need to account for. I know that there is a different regime in place in Cleveland than the one that initially drafted Richardson, but the player I have most commonly seen Richardson compared to is Adrian Peterson. What are the odds that Minnesota, regardless of who was in charge, would have traded Adrian Peterson for a 1st round pick at any point during his career? No matter how we spin it, I think it's clear we need to adjust to the reality that Trent Richardson might not be as talented as we initially thought. At least, not in the NFL's estimation.
If the Trent Richardson trade causes us to revise our opinions of his situation upward and our opinions of his talent downward, where does that leave him? Personally, I still have him as my #1 dynasty running back. While the Portis, Faulk, Walker, and Dickerson comparisons might not be too flattering to Richardson, all four of those running backs were able to sustain high-end RB1 production for several years for their new franchise, and I see no reason why Richardson could not do the same in Indianapolis. Richardson is still only 22 or 23 years old (see note below), and should still have a long and productive career ahead of him. There's no other back in dynasty I'd rather own. The only impact for me is that I'd be a bit less willing to trade an A.J. Green for Trent Richardson today than I might have been two weeks ago.
One final note before we go. There's a lot of confusion surrounding Trent Richardson's date of birth. All sources agree that he was born on July 10th, but some sources say he was born in 1991 and some say he was born in 1990. Rather than one rogue outlier, there are literally dozens of reports on each side of the divide, which makes for quite a mess as we try to sort through those reports to find the original sources. Tracing the origins of information on the internet is a pretty tricky business, as examples exist of edits being made to a wikipedia page, reports being written based on that information from wikipedia, and then wikipedia listing those reports as a source on the original page. It's very easy for a single mistake to get reported and widely disseminated until the incorrect information is as common as the correct, which has obviously happened here. In an especially ironic twist, Trent Richardson's Wikipedia page actually lists both dates, saying he was born in 1990 in the opening paragraph, but listing the 1991 date of birth under Richardson's personal information.
In terms of sources putting Richardson's date of birth in 1990, the source Wikipedia lists is the voter registration information for Trent Richardson in Pensacola, Florida. Like all government documents, voter registration records are a compelling primary source, and that 1990 birth date is also supported by Pro-Football-Refernce.com and our very own Footballguys.com, and has been reported by major news outlets such as ESPN and Sports Illustrated.
So case closed, right? We have a government document suggesting a birth date which has been supported by numerous other credible outlets. The problem gets back to one of original sources. When tracking down original sources, I like to play a game called "how likely is it that this source got its information from elsewhere on the internet?" In the case of the 1990 birth date, I think the chances are very good that all of the different outlets got their initial information from elsewhere on the internet. Given the presence of Doug Drinen at both organizations, I would wager it's very likely that Footballguys gets its player ages from Pro-Football-Reference. I know that any journalist, when trying to determine Richardson's age, is going to be hitting up Google, Wikipedia, or Pro-Football-Reference. I don't know where Pro-Football-Reference gets its player ages, but if they likewise rely on an internet source, that means the entire pro-1990 case could rest on as little as a single document: the aforementioned voter registration.
Meanwhile, on the "pro-1991" side of the ledger, we have a broad range of sources of varying credibility that all pass the "how likely is it that this source got its information from the internet?" test. NFL.com and the official site of the Colts, for instance, both list Richardson's age as 22, which would fit with a 1991 birthday. While those websites are both run by web masters who may or may not be getting information from the internet, I would believe there's a better-than-average chance they have access to some other primary sources (such as, say, Richardson himself). Additionally, several articles exist reporting on Trent Richardson's birthday parties, and every single one of those articles comports with the 1991 birth date. While at Alabama, there are several mentions of a booster attending Richardson's 19th birthday party in 2010. After the NFL draft, TMZ reported that Jamie Foxx attended Richardson's 21st birthday party. TMZ might not seem like the most credible of sources, but a 21st birthday party passes the "internet test" with flying colors. The 21st birthday is a big deal. It's unlikely that anyone in attendance was unaware of just which birthday party they were celebrating and later had to look it up online to be sure. Also, several recruiting ranking services, such as Scout.com, list Richardson as being born in 1991. As those rankings mark the earliest point where Richardson was famous enough for information about him to be readily available online, it's unlikely that the recruiting services relied on Google to determine Richardson's date of birth.
At the end of the day, we're left with a single verifiable origin source for the 7/10/1990 birth date and multiple origin sources for the 7/10/1991 birth date. The source for the 1990 date is by far the most credible and conclusive, but at the same time, any single source is always vulnerable to typos or mistakes. All it would have taken is one Florida official misreading a 1 as a 0 for half of the internet to become convinced that Trent Richardson is currently 23 years old. It's much harder to tell a compelling story to account for the prevalence of the 1991 birth date, as it would involve Richardson consistently lying about his age over a 4-year period- lying to recruiters, lying to his teams, lying to boosters, and lying to Jamie Foxx. Anecdotal evidence also favors the 1991 birth day being the correct one, as for Richardson to already be 19 when he entered school at Alabama in 2009, he would have either had to start Kindergarten at age 6 or have been held back for a year in school, both of which are much more uncommon than the alternative. In all, there's a compelling case suggesting that Trent Richardson was truly born in 1991.
This might seem like a purely academic distinction. In the short term, it's largely meaningless. Even if he was born in 1990, Trent Richardson is still younger than any other starting running back in the NFL except for Eddie Lacy, Lamar Miller, and Le'Veon Bell, (the 1991 date of birth makes him younger than any except for Bell). As of today, it doesn't matter much whether Trent Richardson is 22 or 23 years old; either way, he's still one of the very few young backs in a league where the entire RB population is aging rapidly. Three years from now, however, you can bet discussion of whether Trent Richardson is 25 or 26 will be far less academic when it comes to his long-term dynasty value.
Heard Around the Water Cooler
The reason to spend time to form more accurate opinions of players is so you can make better moves involving those players - thinking is for doing.
-Poster ZWK from the Footballguys message boards
(Read that again. Let it sink in. Put it into action.)
For the first time in a game since 2009, Tom Brady had zero targets to his tight ends.
-Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter)
After years of tight end dominance, the #Patriots TEs have a combined one catch for five yards through two games. #Hoomanawanui
-Chad Parsons (@ChadParsonsNFL)
(important lesson: New England doesn't run a TE-heavy offense, any more than they ran a WR-heavy offense when Moss and Welker were in town. New England runs a "throw the ball to the good players"-heavy offense. The same can be said for many other teams, too.)
IMO, hysteria over RGIII's mechanics overblown. Go back and watch Brady in early 2009 after knee surgery -- took a couple games to plant.
-Doug Farrar (@SI_DougFarrar)
@SI_DougFarrar And RG3 looked like a totally different QB in the 4th quarter. He'll be fine.
-Joel Bussell (@NFLosophy)
@NFLosophy Yes he did. 15-of-21 for 169 and 2 TDs in fourth quarter.
-Doug Farrar (@SI_DougFarrar)
@SI_DougFarrar Mechanics and drive were much better. Someone's rac...er, crazy if they're saying his mechanics are messed up
-Joel Bussell (@NFLosophy)
@NFLosophy Well, no Jets game to talk about today. Need to shift the panicky narrative, I guess.
-Doug Farrar (@SI_DougFarrar)
Good to hear Mikel Leshoure is open to a trade. In other news, I am open to another growth spurt.
-Gregg Rosenthal (@greggrosenthal)
(For those who didn't know… Gregg Rosenthal is short)
get him out of your lineup! even better abolish kicker as a fantasy position! RT @packers Kai Forbath inactive for Redskins.
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
(Another week, another joke about kickers in fantasy.)
Keep an eye out for #fantasyfootball players who struggle statistically today. Post-Wk 2 among best times of year to execute buy-low steals.
-Evan Silva (@evansilva)
I think Eddie Royal's return to prominence may have a lot to do with Whisenhunt. The old Randle El role.
-Cian Fahey (@cianaf)
(If what Cian suspects is true, that does suggest that Royal's a good sell-high candidate. Antwaan Randle El never topped 750 offensive yards.)
The Panthers take a 7-3 lead. Mike Shula closes his playbook and leaves the stadium. His work is done for the day.
-David Ely (@David_Ely)
We're 92 minutes into the Cleveland Browns season, and Brandon Weeden has one carry. That's the only carry all year not by Richardson.
-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)
(note: On Sunday when I marked this tweet for inclusion, I had no idea how ironic it would soon seem)
Michael Vick has now missed DeSean Jackson three times while wide open for an easy TD.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Also in reviewing this Eagles game DeSean Jackson could've maybe had 300 yards receiving. Missed several open deep shots, still had 193yards
-Chris Brown (@smartfootball)
(Desean also had a TD called back due to penalty. As crazy as his numbers have been so far, they could have been much, much better.)
If we're drafting today, is McCoy #1 overall pick as @FootballRobert suggested? I think he is.
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
James Starks is first Packers RB to rush for 100+ yards in 45 games. Redskins defense is a joke.
Packers are closing in on 600 yards of offense against this fraud of a Redskins D.
Redskins D in a nutshell: Aaron Rodgers, James Jones, Randall Cobb and James Starks all posted career-highs today.
-Chris Wesseling (@ChrisWesseling)
Jay Cutler has only been sacked once through two games.
-Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero)
(In a season full of shocking stats, that one is #1 on my list with a bullet.)
The #Jaguars had 123 yards when MJD left the game with 8 minutes left in first half. They have 1 yard since
-Hays Carlyon, Jacksonville beat writer (@HaysCarlyon)
this is crazy. 3 offensive points this year. RT @JohnOehser: Jaguars have seven second-half yards
-Gregg Rosenthal (@greggrosenthal)
The fact that Chad Henne has a 92 passer rating today is all you need to know about passer rating.
-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)
Of all the much-ballyhood 2nd year starters at QB, the best game so far today belongs to... Ryan Tannehill.
-Adam Harstad (@AdamHarstad)
Per @GregABedard, the Bucs, in fact, only had 10 defenders on the field and still stopped the Saints on fourth-and-1.
-Jeff Duncan, New Orleans Times-Picayune columnist (@JeffDuncan_)
Welp. pic.twitter.com/BEMw9pyKbe
-Tom Gower (@ThomasGower)
Jordy Nelson missed 4 games last year and played injured in others. Still has more TDs than any other WR since the start of 2011 season.
-Chris Wesseling (@ChrisWesseling)
Filed to ESPN: Browns RB Trent Richardson traded to Indy for Colts' first-round pick.
By trading RB Trent Richardson to Indianapolis, Browns now have two picks in 2014 draft in rounds 1, 3, 4. QB of future on the way...
Trent Richardson joins DL John Matuszak as only players since NFL merger to be drafted Top-3, then play for another team the following year.
When Browns signed RB Trent Richardson, they gave him a $13,341,672 signing bonus. Money's gone, gone, gone.
Colts will play RB Trent Richardson vs SF. Why wouldn't they when Chuck Pagano calls him "a rolling ball of butcher knives."
-Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter)
Second Thoughts
The Andy Reid effect part 1: On Kansas City's opening drive, the Chiefs marched down the field until they had first and goal from the 2 yard line. They then called back-to-back passes.
The Andy Reid effect part 2: Each of the passes was thrown to running back Jamaal Charles, who caught the second one for a TD. A lot is made about how pass-heavy Andy Reid's offenses are, and that's all true- by some measures, Reid is one of the 5 most pass-heavy coaches in history. What this misses, though, is just how heavily involved his running backs are in the passing game. Andy Reid may not call a lot of runs, but few coaches feature their running backs more.
Through two weeks, Ryan Mathews has been on the field for just 47 of San Diego's 137 offensive snaps, or about a third. Danny Woodhead has been on the field for 52, and Ronnie Brown has been on the field for 40. San Diego runs the ball 64% of the time when Mathews is on the field, and just 17% of the time when Woodhead or Brown are on the field. An offense cannot continue to be that predictable all season long, which means either Mathews is going to see his playing time increase... or else the bottom is about to drop out on his fantasy value altogether.
Tight end Fred Davis has played 67 snaps for Washington compared to 53 for rookie Jordan Reed, but Davis has run a route just 37 times compared to 46 for Reed. That's one of the upsides to being a terrible blocker- you spend a lot more time out in pass patterns.
It's not often that a team enters week 3 of the NFL season without anyone who has attempted either a single rush or pass. It's probably rarer still for a team's week 3 starters at QB and RB to have failed to log so much as a single snap yet. Ladies and gentlemen... your 2013 Cleveland Browns.
The last time Michael Vick passed for 400 more yards than he rushed for was... never. Prior to last week, Michael Vick had never in 104 career starts thrown for 400 more yards than he rushed for. It was just the 4th game in his career where he threw for as much as 300 more yards than he rushed for. In case anyone was wondering, Peyton Manning has done that 70 times.
Do you think Tom Coughlin hates fumbles? In week 2, Da'Rel Scott played more than half again as many snaps as David Wilson (39 vs. 24). Despite reports that Brandon Jacobs was not yet in game shape, Jacobs tied with Wilson for the team lead in rushing attempts. Andre Brown is scheduled to return in week 10.
To the horror of everyone who drafted C.J. Spiller in the first round of their drafts this year, Fred Jackson has not only received 41% of the RB snaps and 42% of the RB touches in Buffalo, he's also been more effective than Spiller on a per-touch basis. Jackson has been one of the most effective running backs in the league for years, and it seems everyone was mistaken to believe that would suddenly change in 2013. At the same time, it's important to remember that Fred Jackson is the oldest back in the NFL. Spiller's time will still come. In the mean time, let's give Jackson some recognition as perhaps the most underappreciated back in the league over his career.
How old is the current crop of RBs in the NFL? In standard scoring, 30 RBs have scored at least 16 points through the season's first two weeks. 15 of them are 27 or older. Just 3 of them, (Doug Martin, Daryl Richardson, Giovani Bernard), are 24 or younger. Ben Tate, who has been in the league for four seasons, is the fourth-youngest member of the 16 point club.
For comparison purposes, of the top 30 backs during the 2010 season, 9 were 27 or older compared to 12 who were 24 or younger. Since then, all of those elite young 23 and 24 year olds have turned 26 and 27, and very few young talents have entered the league to take their place.
With the Browns rumored to have traded Richardson to stockpile ammunition in an attempt to acquire a franchise quarterback in 2014, now seems like an opportune moment to point out that Brandon Weeden is a year and a half older than Matt Ryan and just two months younger than Aaron Rodgers. This is why it's so important to know a player's actual age rather than just knowing how long they've been in the league. For instance, Lesean McCoy is just 6 months older than Alfred Morris. Despite entering the league in the same year, Jimmy Graham is three and a half years older than Rob Gronkowski. Since decline is linked more heavily to age than to previous workload, knowing information like this can give you a huge advantage over the rest of your league in negotiations. As I mentioned in the Big Takeaway, even if a player is so young that this age information doesn't seem relevant right now, you can be sure that in two or three years that kind of information will have a huge impact on each player's respective value.
This now brings us full circle. The importance of knowing ages underscores the value of knowing Trent Richardson's birthday. If, as I suspect, Trent Richardson was born in 1991, he becomes one of just 16 backs in the league with a 1991 date of birth. Tossing out the guys currently 3rd or lower on the depth chart, you have Giovani Bernard, Bryce Brown, Knile Davis, Eddie Lacy, Lamar Miller, Bernard Pierce, and David Wilson. These guys will always be more valuable than a player with similar talent or in a similar situation who is 2 years older. The only back currently in the league with a 1992 birthday is Le'Veon Bell... who, it should be noted, just participated in his first full practice today. Given my fondness for acquiring injured players, I feel I would be remiss if I didn't point out that this is possibly the last chance you'll have to buy Bell at an unwarranted discount.
Best of luck to everyone in their week 2 games. I'll see you back here next week with plenty of NFL action to break down and plenty of dynasty implications to discuss!
