Hey guys and gals, welcome to This Week in Dynasty. This is a new feature this year where we're going to discuss relevant developments from around the league with a dynasty slant. Everything is fair game, from high-level strategy to nitty-gritty player evals. If you have an suggestions for topics you'd like to see covered in this space, or if you'd just like to join the conversation, feel free to let me know on Twitter at @AdamHarstad.
The Big Takeaway
Another week, another round of star players suffering severe injuries. Recency bias ensures that every year always seems like the weirdest or most _______ year ever, but this year really does feel like it’s provided us with an unusually large number of severe injuries to top fantasy players. Luckily, we are not forced to rely on our flawed and misleading intuitions; we can actually check the results for ourselves.
First, I looked up MFL ADP data since 2010. Then, I tracked down each individual player drafted in the first two rounds to determine how many games they combined to miss. The results? So far in 2013, players drafted in the first two rounds have combined to miss 32 games. With three of those players on IR (Doug Martin, Arian Foster, and Julio Jones), that total is guaranteed to reach at least 41 by the end of the season. In addition, three more players (Aaron Rodgers, Adrian Peterson, and Maurice Jones-Drew) are currently dealing with injuries and might increase that total even further still. By the end of the season, players from the first two rounds should combine for about 50 missed games, give or take.
That seems like a lot, but how does it compare to other recent seasons? Well, in 2012, the players drafted in the first or second round combined to miss just 35 total games. It turns out that 2012 was a bit of an anomaly, though; in 2011, players from the first two rounds combined to miss 53 total games. In 2010, they combined to miss 52. In recent years, 2012 stands out as much more of an outlier than 2013.
Part of the reason why this year seems to be so injury-rich is something called the availability heuristic. The availability heuristic is a bias where we estimate how common something is by how easy it is to think of examples. It’s very easy to think of the three star players who wound up on IR in 2013. It’s much harder to remember examples from 2010. How many here remember that Ryan Grant spent 15 games on injured reserve in 2010? Heck, how many here remember that Ryan Grant was considered a fantasy star in 2010? Because that season was so long ago, it’s harder to remember examples, so we think they were less common. 2012 is recent enough that we could probably remember examples, but 2012 was an unusually healthy year, so there are fewer examples to remember. The result is that we can think of a lot more season-shaping injuries in 2013, so we assume that they’re more common this year than is typical.
Another part of the reason why this season seems to be so injury-rich is because there were an unusual number of injuries during the offseason. Michael Crabtree, Percy Harvin, and Rob Gronkowski all might have very easily been drafted in the first two rounds had their offseason been uneventful and injury-free. Randall Cobb also might have gone in the top 24 had it not been for a preseason injury; as it was, he fell to 28th. Add those names to the total, and that’s as many as seven stars or near-stars who have missed significant time due to an injury they suffered within the last 365 days. Adding those four players into the mix increases the games missed by 37, with Gronkowski, Cobb, and Harvin due to miss several more games, each. By including offseason injuries, the number of games missed by star players nearly doubles, and 2013 legitimately qualifies as one arguably the most injured season in recent memory (although, in fairness, the 2011 data also doesn’t account for Peyton Manning, who missed the year after offseason surgery).
So, hopefully that settles the matter. 2013 is a completely normal fantasy season, injury-wise. Either that, or it’s the Injurypocalypse. Definitely one or the other.
Since we’re looking at the injury data, anyway, let’s take a look at the list of players who have suffered serious injuries since 2010. For this exercise, I defined a “serious” injury as anything that caused a player to miss four consecutive games, or anything that landed a player on Injured Reserve (so if a player tore his ACL in week 15, it would still count as a serious injury). Here is a list of such players:
2010: Frank Gore, DeAngelo Williams, Ryan Grant, Tony Romo
2011: Peyton Manning, Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, Andre Johnson, Darren McFadden, Matt Forte
2012: LeSean McCoy, Maurice Jones-Drew, Rob Gronkowski, Demarco Murray, Darren McFadden
Since Gore returned from his injury, he’s on pace for his third consecutive top-12 season. Tony Romo is on pace for his third consecutive top-8 finish. Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, Andre Johnson, and Matt Forte have put up back-to-back top-12 finishes since their 2011 injury. LeSean McCoy and Demarco Murray both bounced back from their 2012 injury and rank in the top 10 this season. There have been some busts on that list (Grant, DeAngelo, McFadden), but by and large, if you’d bought low on all of those players, odds are great you’d be looking at multiple championships as a reward. A team with Peyton and Romo at quarterback, an RB corps of Charles, McCoy, Peterson, Forte, and Murray, and Andre Johnson at WR would almost certainly be the highest-scoring team in most leagues by a substantial margin. Going back even further, Tom Brady and Wes Welker were also once available at a steep injury discount. And looking beyond just the stars, it may be hard to remember now, but Demaryius Thomas was once ranked outside of the consensus top-50 receivers after a severe Achilles tear, and Matt Stafford was once considered injury prone and unable to make it through a full season.
My point is that, when a player like Rob Gronkowski tears his ACL, the initial reaction is almost always to drop him heavily. In the early mock drafts I’ve seen, Gronkowski has dropped from the first round down to the third. It’s scary considering investing a lot of value in a player who will be undergoing his fourth surgery in the past year. At one point in time, Frank Gore was a soon-to-be 28 year old RB with a season-ending hip fracture. It was scary to invest in him, too. Peyton Manning was a 35-year-old QB attempting to be the first player in history to return from spinal fusion surgery. It was scary to invest in him. Demarco Murray was once just a guy who couldn’t stay healthy. There’s no question that a serious injury adds risk to a player. The only question is whether the fantasy community accurately prices that risk. The results from recent seasons suggest that it does not. You’ll sometimes lose when you gamble on players with an injury history, but at typical market prices, you’ll wind up coming out well ahead in the long run. Even if they’re old like Foster, even if they have a long history of injuries like Gronkowski, even if they’re attempting to return from an injury that has historically been a career-killer like Crabtree. Some of these players have undoubtedly reached the end of the road… but most of them have long years left to go, and can help hang a few championship banners in the meantime.
Heard Around the Water Cooler
The Eye Test
Nuk! Overshadowed lately but don't forget this kid in dynasty. Going to be a star.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Tate doesn't make that run two weeks ago.
Tate has barely featured, but he's been really good with the touches he has got.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
So I see Eddie Lacy has some strength in his lower body. #Understatement
-Josina Anderson (@JosinaAnderson)
Le’Veon Bell looking really good today. It’s like he played in a cold weather state like Michigan before.
-Football and Brackets (@footballandbrackets)
Antonio Brown doin WORK. He’s a WR1 in any weather, kids. Short catch, long run. Top 10 drafted WR next year? In PPR, I say yes.
-Football and Brackets (@footballandbrackets)
CHRIS IVORY running like he stole something! Just POUNDING people. "A spectacular run!" says Marvelous, like it were a Michael Jordan dunk.
-Jason McIntyre (@jasonrmcintyre)
Toby Gerhart has looked far better this year than at any other time in his pro career. Just in time for free agency.
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
*Notes to revisit Toby Gerhart for rankings*
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
That may have been Toby Gerhardt's best run since Andrew Luck was a redshirt freshman at Stanford
-Chris Brown (@SmartFootball)
He's still raw, but in his rookie season Patterson has made it easy to see why many loved him at draft time. His awareness as a runner >.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
I love Josh Gordon's talent. I just don't understand how he still racks up yards. He's not a secret anymore.
-Joe Bussell (@NFLosophy)
Stud. RT @UTKevinAcee: Keenan Allen's 43-yard TD was his fourth of season, moves him to 886 yards for the season.
-Joe Bussell (@NFLosophy)
49ers came to play. That was terrific body control by Crabtree to haul in the back shoulder throw.
-Joe Bussell (@NFLosophy)
The level of talent around the QB in Tennessee is incredible
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Why hasn't Stedman Bailey been playing for the Rams more of the year? Keeps making plays now he's getting opportunities
-Chris Brown (@SmartFootball)
Is any player in the NFL in a more perfect situation for their skillset than Danny Woodhead?
-Chad Parsons (@ChadParsonsNFL)
This is what Denver envisioned when they drafted Ball. Montee vs. nickel defenses = unfair.
-Adam Harstad (@AdamHarstad)
Guess who...Justin Hunter gets loose deep. Again. #Snowflake
-Chad Parsons (@ChadParsonsNFL)
NO! TAVON IS TOO SMALL!
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Oh my goodness, even Brian Schottenheimer couldn't stop Tavon Austin from making that play.
-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)
Most incredible thing about Manning's TD record(that he's going to get) is that he's made it look so unbelievably easy.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
This: RT @PFF_Sam: I like Vereen, he's talented and versatile, but people tend to go OTT with his skill set imo. He's not Marshall Faulk
Vereen has another drop yesterday too. Ball but him in chest. Had nothing to do with his hand.
Vereen's saving grace he's probably a better runner than many of the better receiving backs in the NFL.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Chris Johnson has his flaws, but I do like him as a RB. Should be a good FA addition in offseason.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Jeffery's instinctive ability to get bw defender and ball in flight is hard to beat. Like Marshall, always seems to be attacking ball in air
Landing w Marshall was big development for Jeffery. Ideal WR to mold himself after, and Jeffery has ability to be even better than BMarsh
Marshall's experience as a safety at Central Florida shows thru. He's the receiver that inspired the term "my ball mentality"
When the ball is in flight, Alshon Jeffery plays like all there is on the field is him and the ball. Special ball skills and concentration
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
Scary thing is, I think Justin Hunter can be better at those kind of plays than Jeffery.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
The #cowboys had to talk Cole Beasley into playing pro football. Looks like they were right.
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
It's detailed in the article, but it's fascinating how Belichick showed very little respect to Gordon.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
RG3 probably has the same straight line speed as before but that sudden, and rare, movement is missing this year.
-Paymon Shokoohi (@SetMyRoster)
The Numbers Game
The last time Kendall Wright was held under 55 yards Eddie Royal was leading the NFL in touchdowns.
-Chris Wesseling (@ChrisWesseling)
Larry Fitzgerald 2nd to only Calvin Johnson in OTD and end zone targets entering Wk14. More work near GL there. TD!
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
With one more passing TD, I think Manning's number of TDs will equal the temperature (w/ wind chill), which is pretty good, I guess.
-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)
14-78-1 for Moreno, 15-77-1 for Ball - That's some nice committee action right there
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
I think @MikeClayNFL talked about target concerns for Boldin/Crabtree/Davis because Kaep does not throw enough. Only 3 for Davis today.
-Raymond Summerlin (@RMSummerlin)
Ryan Mathews has 651 yards & 4 TDs on his last 140 carries (4.65 YPC). 0 missed games in '13. 1 lost fumble all year. Quiet breakout season.
-Evan Silva (@evansilva)
Josh Gordon joins Walter Payton, Tiki, Faulk, O.J., Thurman, and Priest as only players to total 800 yards from scrimmage in 4 straight gms.
-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)
Rod Streater only needs to avg 71 yds per game over the next 3 weeks to have his first 1000 yd season #doingitquietly
-Doug Veatch (@Harahduh2)
79%+ of the Texans carries have gone to Ben Tate in 4 of the team's last 5 games.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Over the Jaguars last 4 games, Ace Sanders has 32 targets to Cecil Shorts' 29.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Montee Ball has 259 yds & 3 TDs on 43 carries last 4 games (6.02 YPC). After slow start, Ball's season YPC up to 4.43. Knowshon Moreno 4.26.
-Evan Silva (@evansilva)
Chris Ivory finally staying on field and he has run for 4.4 ypc with Geno Smith @ QB. Still think there's a good future ahead of 25yr old
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
Three RBs have averaged 4.9 or more YPC on at least 100 carries this year. McCoy/Charles are two of them... The third? DeMarco Murray.
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
Le'Veon Bell now has three nine-target games. He's seen 20% of the Steelers targets over the last 3 weeks.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Michael Crabtree played 61 of 69 possible snaps yesterday. He's back! #49ers
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Exactly 2 targets in each of Andre Ellington's last 3 games. Not good. As valuable as Shonn Greene without targets.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
McCown has seven consecutive games with a passer rating over 90.0. Cutler has never had more than three consecutive in any season.
-Chris Wesseling (@ChrisWesseling)
With three games left in the season, Dez Bryant is already the only active WR to log 35+ receiving TDs in first four seasons.
The last WR before Dez Bryant to have 35+ TDs in their first four seasons? Randy Moss in 1998-2001.
Dez Bryant also on pace for 12+ TDs for the second time in his first four NFL seasons. Other active WR on that list? Calvin Johnson.
-Chad Parsons (@ChadParsonsNFL)
Alshon Jeffery now has 16+ PPR points in 8-of-last-10 games this season.
-Chad Parsons (@ChadParsonsNFL)
More touchdowns (104) and more points (859) were scored this week than in any on other week in NFL history.
-NFL Access (@NFL_Access)
Seahawks TE Luke Willson has more total yards after catch on 21 targets/16 catches than Tony Gonzalez has on 93/65. Via @PFF
Last point on TE Luke Willson: Blazed a 4.51 at his pro day, nearly 6'6", 250 lbs. Only Kearse, Harvin play faster on Seahawks O.
-Chris Wesseling (@ChrisWesseling)
Also of Interest
If your opinion on a player is changing week to week, you're doing it wrong. It's about body of work.
-Benjamin Allbright (@AllbrightNFL)
Adrien Robinson and A.J. Jenkins were adds for me on a non-playoff dynasty team today. Prepping for offseason. #DropKickers #DropDefense
-Chad Parsons (@ChadParsonsNFL)
Ill be a buyer of Trent Richardson this offseason if I can buy from an owner looking to move on. He’s not playing well but isn’t THIS bad.
-Paymon Shokoohi (@SetMyRoster)
Can't decide who is a superior NFL prospect: Julio Jones out of Alabama or Sammy Watkins this year. The Clemson star is that good.
-Ryan Lownes (@ryanlownes)
There was a time when I thought Charles Rogers was going to be a better pro receiver than Andre Johnson.
-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)
(There was a time when almost everyone thought Charles Rogers was going to be a better pro receiver than Andre Johnson.)
So about those shovels that were going to be used to dig Andre Johnson's grave? They're still collecting cobwebs and rust in the shed...
Andre Johnson's 11.5 targets per game this year are why you don't project decreased workloads based on a potential change in circumstance.
-Eric Hardter (@EDH_27)
Feel like I am the only one really mentioning Luke Willson in dynasty. Felt like that with Ladarius Green or a couple years too....
-Chad Parsons (@ChadParsonsNFL)
I was the only one that even ranked Adrien Robinson too. A forgotten name. post-hype name to know IMO. At least stash this offseason in case
-Chad Parsons (@ChadParsonsNFL)
Huge range on Michael Crabtree in the Footballguys dynasty rankings...from WR11 to WR57 in the last four weeks....
-Chad Parsons (@ChadParsonsNFL)
(I’m the guy who has him at WR11. For reasons that should be clear after this week's Big Takeaway…)
Watched some Melvin Gordon for the first time yesterday. Umm, yeah, that kid should be in running for 1.01 in rookie drafts if he comes out.
-Chad Parsons (@ChadParsonsNFL)
Torrey Smith has a range of WR11-17 in the Footballguys dynasty rankings. A year from now, do you think that is higher or lower?
While I like Torrey Smith plenty, have feeling this is career year. Time to cash out.
-Chad Parsons (@ChadParsonsNFL)
So I see Eddie Lacy has some strength in his lower body. #Understatement
-Doug Veatch (@Harahduh2)
If Josh Gordon didn't come with a suspension risk, is there any question that he would be the 2nd overall #Dynasty pick next year?
-Karl Safchick (@KarlSafchick)
Toby Gerhart, Chris Johnson, Ben Tate, and Darren McFadden are all going to be free agents next year & Gerhart will be the best value by far
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
Last off-season, I loved Gordon/ Reed/Ladarius not only because of their talent, but the value they offered. That’s gone. Find replacements.
-Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23)
So, does Shane Vereen go in the 2nd round in PPR startups? #dynasty
-Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23)
I think Josh Gordon may be the touchiest #dynasty subject I've seen in a long time. Doesn't matter how you rank him, ppl are upset.
-Eric Dickens (@DLFootball)
I’m just asking question on AD and Gronk. Remember, I’m the one who believes injury-prone label is primarily retrospective label.
How much of these injuries are bad luck, related to position/offensive role? How much are due to “tissue issue?”
For those that say “anyone would suffer same injury,” many felt DeMarco Murray, Ryan Mathews etal injury prone despite similar situations.
-Jene Bramel (@JeneBramel)
(This is just it. Random chance is such that, even if we expect the injuries to be completely randomly distributed, some guys are going to get hit with a lot of them in a short time. It doesn’t mean that those guys are injury prone, it means that random is sometimes streaky.)
Pitta: "I felt good throughout the game, and I didn't think about my hip, which is encouraging moving forward"
-Matt Zenitz (@mzenitz)
The touchdown montage is going to take 12 minutes, and it's going to be amazing.
-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)
NFL media is nonsense at times. You just need one or two events (see Tony Romo in Seattle) to create a reputation.
-Scott Kacsmar (@FO_ScottKacsmar)
@FO_ScottKacsmar NFL media is nonsense more often than not unfortunately.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Ryan Mathews is quietly doing the things we have been hoping for over the last three years.
-Chet (@Chet_G)
Think about all the damage Josh Gordon will do over the next 3 years. When that 3 years is up, he'll still only be 25 years old.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
If you're still able to trade in your league. Start making offers for Gronk!!The next week or so may be the cheapest he'll ever be.
-Doug Veatch (@Harahduh2)
With the Gronk injury (history of injuries), can we rank him any lower than 2nd among tight ends for dynasty?
-Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23)
(No.)
Career-high 11 carries for Knile Davis yesterday. Had 22 coming in. Like this kid from a dynasty perspective. #chiefs
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
If you told me Rob Gronkowski's career only lasts one or two more years I wouldn't be surprised.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Ward's hit on Gronkowski has nothing to do with the NFL's policy on helmet to helmet hits. Everyone goes low on big TEs regardless.
-Joe Bussell (@NFLosophy)
It's the start of the silly season of dynasty football. My advice - ignore the too-soon gut reactions & "look at me" hyperbolic commentary.
More importantly, if someone touts all the picks they got right as a reason to listen, most likely they're hiding the ones they missed.
-Eric Hardter (@EDH_27)
Shouldn't be. Straightforward surgery in young, well-conditioned athlete. MT @big_gulps_huh_ long term health concern with Julio's foot?
-Jene Bramel (@JeneBramel)
Complicated by MCL injury. Could delay surgery. 6-9 month recovery likely if rehab smooth. RT @jjohnson0522 How's Gronk's outlook for 2014?
-Jene Bramel (@JeneBramel)
Would think he'll try. Tough situation to overcome. RT @akdecember2013 Will Denario Alexander play again?
-Jene Bramel (@JeneBramel)
Christine Michael was just drafted before CJ Spiller in 14 team PPR #dynasty You on board with that?
-Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23)
Larry Fitzgerald was just drafted as the WR26 (58th overall) in a ppr #Dynasty as a teams WR3. Thoughts?
Larry Fitzgerald went 58 overall. Michael Floyd went 16 overall. I'd rather have Fitz regardless of ADP.
-Karl Safchick (@KarlSafchick)
The thing about "thinking outside the box" it's all about explaining your thought process. It's not about being right or wrong.
As some1 who regularly is accused of being a contrarian, I know its also easy to be tempted to just give in and say what everyone else says.
Thought process is more important than result because it's not an exact science.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Have to think that Josh Gordon and Alshon Jeffery are both enjoying their peaks right now. Won't always look this easy.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
If I'm in a deep dyno with a spot to kill, I'm adding TE DJ Williams - quietly signed by NE today.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
McCown is a 34-year-old journeyman. Gannon was a 36-year-old journeyman when Trestman got his hands on him in 2001.
Gannon never had a comp % over 60.0 before Trestman. Won MVP with 67.6 in 2002. McCown's career completion % was 59.0. Now 66.8% for 2013.
-Chris Wesseling (@ChrisWesseling)
Several people tweeted it tonight, making connection between McCown and Gannon. Hadn't thought of that honestly before, makes sense to me
-Bryan Fontaine (@Bryan_Fontaine)
I was surprised myself at the gap in competition that McCown has faced vs. what Cutler has faced. Those DVOA stats are telling.
-Joe Bussell (@NFLosophy)
The biggest takeaway for me in this QB situation is that there's a real possibility that Trestman's system is just THAT good.
-J.J. Zachariason (@LateRoundQB)
Fun Fact - Josh McCown is older than Michael Vick and Carson Palmer.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
I just saw Dalton go before Brady in a startup. I love me some youth, but do not agree with that order at all.
-Chad Parsons (@ChadParsonNFL)
The Robert Griffin III Saga
I'll be trying to trade for him in offseason RT @chimp_magnet how do we feel about RG3 dynasty career? Should owners look at getting out?
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
RG3 can run any O but a) needs a good one (as all QBs do) and b) needs to improve in all areas in offseason (as w/ any young QB)
-Chris Brown (@SmartFootball)
A note of hope for young QBs: Drew Brees was once benched for 41-year old Doug Flutie. In Brees' 3rd year.
-Gregg Rosenthal (@greggrosenthal)
Shanahan is also setting Cousins up to look really good. Atlanta and Dallas next two weeks, two of the worst pass defenses (besides his own)
so this controversy is going nowhere, because Cousins SHOULD put up pretty good numbers just based on what everyone else has done
Josh McCown and Matt Flynn combined to complete 75% of passes for 8.9 yards per attempt against Cousin's next two opponents last week.
-Jason Lisk (@JasonLisk)
Silly drama in Washington, but I think there are some plusses to putting in Cousins. If he plays well, can get a high pick for him in '14
-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)
Until Shanahan moves RG3 to safety, there are still more levels of escalation available.
-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)
(Interesting note: Denver used to have a backup QB named Jarious Jackson during the Mike Shanahan era. Jackson hung around the team for four years, but Mike Shanahan eventually got so frustrated with him that he… moved him to safety. Just saying, the option is on the table…)
Second Thoughts
Nobody is coming out of this Robert Griffin III saga looking good, and Griffin himself is no exception. I thought he was a phenomenal quarterback last year as he put up the best rookie season I had ever seen. This year, he’s not been the same guy. I’ve been willing to give him a pass because of his injury history, but with a benching, doubt creeps in. Not a lot of doubt- I still think this is just a speed bump in his development- but some. As I’m fond of saying, it’s all about pricing in the risk. RGIII now carries more and different risk than he carried a week ago. I’m not saying you should bury him because the Redskins are a mess- I know I’m not- but if you aren’t downgrading him the slightest bit, you’re ignoring what’s happening.
Rob Gronkowski's injury again raises questions of what does and does not constitute "injury prone" among a professional athlete. Let me make my thoughts on this clear: lots of injuries does not make a player injury prone. If every single player in the league had a 1% chance of getting hurt every time he touched the ball, one guy might go 1,000 consecutive touches without an injury, while another might get hurt 5 times in a 100 touch span. Random, as I'm fond of saying, is random. Injuries are not going to wind up evenly distributed, even if everyone has an equal chance for injury. It's dangerous to look at past injuries and draw the conclusion that the player is therefore at greater risk for future injuries, just like it would be dangerous to see a coin that had come up heads five times in a row and assume that it's more likely to come up heads on the sixth flip, too.
Of course, this doesn't mean that such a thing as "injury prone" can't exist. My grandmother would be at a greater risk for injury playing football than I would, for instance. She's older, her bones are more brittle, and her ligaments are tighter. That's a natural part of the aging process. Similarly, it's entirely possible that someone just has weaker ligaments than his peers, just like some people have weaker muscles than their peers. There's a lot of variability in human performance. The problem is that, by and large, those guys with weak ligaments aren't going to be making it to the NFL level. There are multiple choke points before the NFL designed to weed a sub-optimal player out. Those guys with weaker ligaments are more likely to get injured in high school and never make it to college, or get injured in college and never make it to the pros. The fact that every NFL player has already passed through those checkpoints suggests that it's unlikely that he is predisposed to injury.
If an NFL player WERE more predisposed to injury, though, that would show up in a pattern of injuries. If a guy has weak ligaments, he'd get a lot of sprains and ligament tears, like Danario Alexander. If a guy had tight hamstrings, he'd suffer a string of hamstring pulls, like Miles Austin. If a guy had brittle bones, you'd see a lot of bones breaking, perhaps like Ryan Mathews. Sometimes, when a player compensates for one injury, they can cause another- if they change their gait to deal with a pulled hamstring, they might sprain their opposite ankle. This is called a "cascade injury", because one injury causes another which causes another in a long cascade.
None of this explains the most recent injuries to Rob Gronkowski and Adrian Peterson. Peterson tore his ACL, and now he has a mid-foot sprain. The ACL injury is fully healed at this point, so the foot sprain isn't a cascade. If he had weak ligaments (leaving him more susceptible to sprains), you'd think it would have shown up long before now in his career. Instead, you have two unrelated injuries. Odds are, Peterson just got unlucky. Same thing for Gronkowski. He broke his arm last year, but he doesn't have any other history of broken bones to suggest he's predisposed to them. He got an infection that required two follow-up surgeries, but nobody would dream of suggesting he is predisposed to surgical infections. He does have a history of back injuries that might qualify as "injury prone", but he's had good success treating them and recovering so far. This most recent injury is an ACL tear that occurred when a 240 pound defender smashed his helmet into Gronk's knee at full speed. The new injury doesn't provide any additional information about Gronk other than he'll tear his ACL when subjected to hits that would tear the ACL of any player in the league who happened to get subjected to them. As far as I'm concerned, if you didn't think Gronk was injury prone before he tore his ACL, there's no reason to think he is injury prone after.
I saw someone raise an interesting point this past weekend: how does everyone account for the ranking difference between Cordarrelle Patterson and Justin Hunter? Both started their careers off slowly, but have come alive in recent weeks. Both show flashes of phenomenal game-breaking talent, but also disappear for long stretches. Both have comparable production to date (Hunter has 350 yards and 4 TDs, Patterson has 430 yards and 3 TDs). Sure, Patterson was a 1st round pick and Hunter was a 2nd round pick... but Patterson was taken 29th overall and Hunter went 34th, meaning just five picks separated them in the NFL draft. Even with Hunter coming on strong in recent weeks, I think his perceived value is still lagging behind his actual value. If I wanted to buy a young up-and-coming receiver, I'd probably pass on the name-brand value of Patterson and target the off-label Hunter, instead.
With Jordan Reed officially getting shut down for the season, I'm not going to get any more chances to point out how crazy his rookie statistics were. A few partial games pulled down his averages, but Reed still ended his rookie season among the top 5 all-time in receptions per game, yards per game, and fantasy points per game by a rookie TE. Unfortunately, his season was ended by a concussion that lingered. I may not believe in "injury prone" most of the time, but there are a few exceptions, and concussions are one of them. Here's hoping Jordan Reed is able to get healthy over the offseason and resume his sophomore campaign right where he left off.
Best of luck to everyone in their Week 15 games. I'll see you back here next week with plenty of NFL action to break down and plenty of dynasty implications to discuss!
