Hey guys and gals, welcome to This Week in Dynasty. This is a new feature this year where we're going to discuss relevant developments from around the league with a dynasty slant. Everything is fair game, from high-level strategy to nitty-gritty player evals. If you have an suggestions for topics you'd like to see covered in this space, or if you'd just like to join the conversation, feel free to let me know on Twitter at @AdamHarstad.
THE BIG TAKEAWAY
For most fantasy leagues, Week 14 marks the beginning of the playoffs and the culmination of a long season’s effort. For some teams, they dominated from the first snap and the playoff berth was never in question. For other teams, their spot wasn’t secure until the very last snap of the Washington / New York game this last weekend. Regardless of how they got there, though, each and every one of these teams is still alive to walk away with the league championship. Not even the best team is guaranteed a title. Even the worst team still has a chance.
To rain on every playoff team’s parade a little, though, I thought I’d quantify just how good of a chance everyone really has. Using the ultra-scientific method of looking through a lot of leagues and noting the all-play record of the best team, top teams seem to have about a 63-69% chance of winning any particular game. The best team I’ve seen this year had an all-play winning percentage of 78%. The best team in the history of any of my dynasty leagues had an all-play winning percentage of 84%. So, let’s call it 66% for a typical “best team”, 75% for a true dynasty at its peak, and 85% for one of those extremely rare teams that makes you ask whether its owner is playing in a two-team league. Using those values, it’s simple enough to calculate the odds of winning two or three games in a row for a championship.
At 66% and armed with a first-round bye, the best team in the league has a 44% chance of winning the title. If they somehow failed to secure the bye, their chances of winning it all drop to just 29%. In other words, in a typical league, the best team is more likely to lose in the playoffs than win the championship.
At 75% and armed with a first-round bye, a true dynasty is actually an odds-on favorite for the title, with a 56% chance of winning it all. If they miss out on the bye, their odds drop to 42%.
At 85%, the once-in-a-generation squad would be expected to win the title a whopping 72% of the time with a bye. Even without a bye, it would still have a 61% chance of emerging victorious. So if you’ve managed to roster 8-10 guys who will be going in the first three rounds of startups next year, congratulations, the odds are in your favor. Except…
Except that these all-play odds are for every team vs. every other team, including the bottom feeders. Once you reach the fantasy playoffs, there are a lot fewer bottom-feeders to feast on. Simply using season-long all-play odds will overestimate everyone’s chances at the title- if you calculate those odds for every team, you’ll wind up with a total well over 100%, which only makes sense if your league awards more than one championship every year. So if you’re a typical top seed and you were already disappointed that you were 50% more likely to lose than to win, your day is about to get a lot worse.
One quick and dirty way to account for this is to figure out how many All-Play wins a team has as a share of all the all-play wins by all playoff teams. It won’t be exact, but it’ll get you in the right ballpark. Perhaps this is best illustrated with an example:
In our first-year Footballguys staff dynasty league, the six teams that made the playoffs had all-play records of 94-49, 89-54, 83-60, 80-63, 76-67, and 63-80. Those six teams combined for 485 all-play wins. If those wins were all evenly distributed, each of those teams would have been 81-62, good for a 57% All-Play winning percentage. The top seed got 94 all-play wins, which is 16% more than the average from the group, so his chances of winning against that group should be about 16% higher than 50%, which works out to 58%. So, using just his all-play record during the regular season, we would estimate that team’s chances of winning a title to be 43%. Adjusting his all-play record to account for the level of the competition, his odds of winning the title, even with a first-round bye, fall to 34%. Or, to put it another way, there’s probably a 2-in-3 chance that the best team in this particular league is going to end the season feeling disappointed.
Meanwhile, repeating these calculations for the worst of those six teams, and even accounting for the fact that he has to play three games instead of two, there’s probably between a 5-6% chance that he winds up winning it all this year. Those are long odds, but not remarkably so. As a point of comparison, current Super Bowl futures have the Carolina Panthers at about 8% to win it all this year. Unlikely, but not at all implausible.
Now, keep in mind that these are rough adjustments and they won’t be 100% accurate, but they’re easy to do and they’ll get you in the right ballpark. To the extent that they are off, they actually still overestimate chances slightly (for instance, repeating that calculation for every playoff team and adding them up gives us 105.4%, when the real odds should add up to 100%). If we wanted to be as precise as possible, we could make still further adjustments, and there might be another method that yeilds a more accurate results... but the goal here is just to produce a quick and dirty estimate. Provided your league management software keeps track of all-play record for you, these steps should get you a good ballpark estimate in about two minutes.
What’s the point of going through these calculations? My aim here is twofold. The first is a reality check. In my experience, people badly overestimate their own championship odds, often to their own detriment. If you feel tempted to drop a quality prospect like a Justin Hunter or a Ladarius Green in order to secure a short-term fill-in like a Nate Burleson or a Heath Miller, you’re far more likely than not to wind up regretting it in the long run. Championships are the ultimate goal, but you shouldn’t compromise your future core in order to gain what amount to extremely marginal increases in your already-weak championship odds. No matter how good your team is, you’re probably not going to be winning the championship this year. Remember, the difference in playoff odds in that particular league between a bad team that snuck into the playoffs and a great team that easily led the league is just about 27%. If an entire roster only makes that much difference, how much difference is one last waiver pickup or one last win-now trade going to make? Improve your odds if you can do so, but you have to know how much you reasonably stand to gain in order to decide how much you should reasonably be willing to sacrifice.
My second goal in writing about these numbers is just a reminder of the crazy nature of fantasy football. We spend countless hours every week for years on end trying to get to this point, and we’re still more likely to earn heartbreak for our troubles than bliss. It is a strange hobby we have all chosen. Appreciate the ride while it lasts.
HEARD AROUND THE WATER COOLER
The Eye Test
If Darren McFadden ever turns into anything worthwhile again I'll legitimately be shocked. He's a shadow of that guy who exploded before.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
That run basically sums up Bell. Great vision, patience, quickness to cut outside, doesn't have the after burners to get the TD.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
BenJarvus Green-Ellis is the Chad Pennington of running backs.
If BJGE had even one strong physical trait he could be so good.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Really, really big fan of the '13 class of RBs.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
To the Josh Gordon tweets: He doesn't perform against better CBs. Needs to develop as a route runner.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Agreed. Gordon really struggles vs press. Rarely separates when CBs get physical with him at the line.
-Brendan Leister (@BrendanLeister)
Probably the most underrated group of players in the NFL: The Jaguars' running backs. Some talent in there(and I don't mean Denard).
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Arian Foster is still one of my favourite players in the NFL to watch. An absolute stud when fully healthy.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Watched all of Gerhart's touches yesterday, I'd be excited if my team signed him in the offseason. Talent is there.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
He runs in a style similar to Jamal Lewis - big w/burst.
-Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman)
I was surprised how fluid he was, but that may be because I watched Michael Bush immediately before that.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Nope. He's always been a solid prospect at RB, just stuck in one of the worst supporting roles for an RB in NFL history.
-Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman)
I don't agree. Ridley is clearly NE's best back when he doesn't fumble IMO RT @Ethanhamm: With Vereen healthy, Ridley is sort of redundant.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Both Cam Newton & Carson Palmer have the same mechanical issues that lead to high throws going to the opposite hash
-Emory Hunt (@FBallGameplan)
Rob Gronkowski was put on this earth to score touchdowns.
-Adam Harstad (@AdamHarstad)
Gronkowski. Catch radius. Absurd.
-Scott Kacsmar (@FO_ScottKacsmar)
Chris Johnson's acceleration there from a stopped start was incredible.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Chris Johnson just made a defender miss in the open field. Impressive move, great effort at the end of the play too.
-Chris Wesseling (@ChrisWesseling)
12 yard run from Trent Richardson!!!!!!....on third and 20...
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Andrew Luck doesn't drop into a pocket, he is put into a plastic bag that he has to escape before it strangles him.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Echoing an opinion expressed a few weeks back: Rob Gronkowski looks as athletic now as he has at any point in his career.
-Field Yates (@FieldYates)
Look, Jimmy Graham is out of this world, but if you don't think Rob Gronkowski is the best TE in the NFL, we're watching a different game.
-Adam Harstad (@AdamHarstad)
Shane Vereen has a score today, but also went out at the 1-foot line, and just dropped another possible score. Could easily have 3 by now.
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
Jake Locker was much better this year than most gave him credit for, his absence is the biggest reason the Titans won't win the AFC South.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
The only mobile QB I've seen that has been able to escape to his backside and still make good/great throws is Russell Wilson. Amazing talent
-Joe Bussell (@NFLosophy)
Won't get as much credit as he deserves because of his situation, but Moreno has been outstanding this year.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Roddy White isn't making hard cuts, but he is looking a lot quicker and making really nice plays today. Won battle up sideline for 30-yards
Ryan actually showing confidence in White on these boundary plays is the most telling aspect of this performance.
-Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman)
If you can point me to a game where Gordon beats a good cornerback as often as the other elite WRs then I'll build a new bandwagon for ye.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
If you can't throw on the Chargers … MT @RotoPat: Andy Dalton having a horrific game.
-Gregg Rosenthal (@greggrosenthal)
Ball is looking a lot better than Moreno running the ball today.
It's bizarro week in Denver. Manning is a mad bomber, and Montee Ball is the best RB.
-Adam Harstad (@AdamHarstad)
Michael Crabtree is such a baller. Wonder if that goes the distance if he was 100 percent.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Crabtree soooo sloooow. He's going to need a few weeks.
-Chris Wesseling (@ChrisWesseling)
In a must-win game, I'm still taking Alex Smith over Andy Dalton. Smith played a helluva game today
-Chris Wesseling (@ChrisWesseling)
Alshon Jeffery is everything I thought Michael Floyd would be.
-Steve Wyremski (@SteveWyremski)
RG3 getting caught from behind by Justin Tuck just doesn't happen last year...
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
Not only are Washington linemen not interested in helping RG3 up after a sack, the receivers have stopped trying to catch his passes.
-Scott Kacsmar (@FO_ScottKacsmar)
Jordan Todman. Remember the name in the offseason.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
I've been really down on Ace Sanders all season, this was his most impressive game. No surprise they schemed him open a lot.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Ben Tate looked like a completely different runner even with his first carry alone today. Must be the ribs.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Andre Johnson cut Aqib Talib's reputation to pieces today...sheesh. Just bullying really.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Nick Foles is the epitome of how important accuracy and decision making is for a QB. Not flashy, boring for fans. But kid understands reads.
-Joe Bussell (@NFLosophy)
I really hate Larry Fitzgerald in the Hines Ward role. It's such a waste. He and Floyd are so good, but Arians isn't helping.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Foles kinda reminds me of the Chiefs when they were unbeaten. He's still good, just shocked at some of the superlatives I've seen from many others. Although, admittedly I do need to watch more of him.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Graham needed a little more "man" on that effort. Pretty sure Gronk completes that play.
-Scott Kacsmar (@FO_ScottKacsmar)
I don't know what the question is, but Russell Wilson is the answer.
-Karl Safchick (@KarlSafchick)
Confirmed: Russel Wilson is a robot.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Hopefully, all of the people asking me why I gush over Wilson but hold reservation on other young QBs understands why I love Wilson now.
Lot of people acting like Russ Wilson's height is irrelevant. It's not. It's a hinderance that he overcomes by being superb in other areas.
Watch Brees crane his neck and stand on his tip toes in the pocket to see over linemen and try telling me he isn't affected by his height.
Height is just something that needs to be noted and evaluated. If a QB isn't ideal height, have to study how he overcomes that disadvantage.
Wilson overcomes his short stature via ability to move & find passing lanes that others couldn't. Brees w/ pocket manipulation, high release
-Joe Bussell (@NFLosophy)
1. Calvin 2. Andre J 3. Dez 4. AJ 5. Julio 6. Jordy 7. Marshall 8. Brown 9. Fitz 10. Kendall
There's a real preference for really tall WRs from most people I think. It's nice to have em, but it's not mandatory for being top 10 IMO.
I love AJ Green, but I've seen him drop too many passes that would have gone for big plays this year. Still an elite WR.
I haven't seen anyone come close to being able to cover Kendall this year. He's lightning and very dangerous after the catch
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
(Note: I’m officially placing a moratorium on tweets where Cian gushes about Kendall Wright. I think we all know where he stands by now.
The Numbers Game
RG3 is averaging more Net Yards per Attempt and more Adjusted Net Yards pet Attempt than Cam Newton this year
-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)
(But what about the #narrative?)
During that game, Calvin broke Jerry Rice's record for most receiving yards in a 3-year span... and he still has 4 games left this year.
-Detroit Lions (@NFLDetroitLions)
Heard a crazy stat on ESPN Radio this morning. Nick Foles’ November QB rating was the highest one month total of all time.
-Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23)
Maurice Jones-Drew has more passing touchdowns over the last five weeks than Geno Smith.
-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)
Adrian Peterson has averaged 5 ypc over the course of his career w mostly following QBs: TJackson, Frerotte, old Favre, old McNabb, Ponder
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
Josh Gordon has all the receiving yards.
-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)
Josh Gordon is first player in NFl history with back to back 200+-yard receiving games.
-Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter)
Nick Foles has been a top 6 QB in all 5 games that he has started and finished this year
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
(Although I have to cry foul a little, because Foles wouldn’t have been top 6 against Dallas even if he’d finished the game.)
Andrew Luck loses Reggie Wayne and turns in the worst 5-game stretch of his career. Just a 39.8 QBR (71.9 w/Wayne).
-Scott Kacsmar (@FO_ScottKacsmar)
Trent Richardson played only 13 snaps yesterday. Donald Brown worked 52.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Josh Gordon missed 20 snaps yesterday. What could've been...
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Since Week 10, Ladarius Green is #fantasyfootball's TE2 behind Rob Gronkowski.
-Josh Moore (@4for4_Josh)
The Browns lead the league in pass attempts, but that doesn't make Josh Gordon a fraud. He's #2 to Megatron in yards per route run
-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)
Nick Foles can become just the 4th QB since the merger to lead the NFL in both INT rate and TD rate. Pre-merger: Unitas, Lamonica, Dawsonx2
-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)
The good news for Jordan Cameron owners: Targets the last 3 weeks: 7 - 9 - 7
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Michael Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald are dead even with 42 targets each over the Cardinals last six games (includes game Floyd got hurt)
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Nick Foles averaging ~15% of the Eagles designed runs this season. Massive. Michael Vick was seeing ~13% pre-injury.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Adrian Peterson is on pace to produce his 3rd season with 100 rushing yards per game. Which means he only needs four more to catch Jim Brown
Adrian Peterson is 116 yards from passing Barry Sanders for 2nd most rush yards in first 7 seasons. Needs 594 to pass LT for #1.
-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)
sounds like a dare
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
Michael Crabtree ran 30 of a possible 38 routes for the 49ers yesterday.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Ryan Mathews has seen 9 targets to Danny Woodhead's 8 over the Chargers last 3 games. So that's weird.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
With Reggie Wayne out, TY Hilton has exploded from 23% of the team's targets to 24%!
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Best as WR3 on NFL team IMO
-Chad Parsons (@ChadParsonsNFL)
What the Patriots missed. Rob Gronkowski leads all TEs with 2.86 yards per route run. Jimmy Graham in 2nd with 2.55.
-Pro Football Focus (@PFF)
Only 5 end zone targets for Jimmy Graham this year (4 TD). Had 7 last year and 21 in 2011.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Josh Gordon (623) is the only WR with more receiving yards than Michael Floyd (396) over the past 3 weeks. Nobody within 225 of Gordon.
-Chris Wesseling (@ChrisWesseling)
Harry Douglas on pace for 88 receptions and 1,208 yards. Falcons will have to make him a bigger part of offense in 2014 with Gonzalez gone.
-Chris Wesseling (@ChrisWesseling)
Over past 5 weeks, only Peterson has more rushing yards than Rashad Jennings. Only Peterson, Forte have more total yards.
Among RBs, Le'Veon Bell is 4th in yards from scrimmage over the past 5 weeks.
-Chris Wesseling (@ChrisWesseling)
Larry Fitzgerald is only averaging 7.75 targets/game this year. Bailing out owners with serious TD production (2nd in OTD).
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Rob Gronkowski 1 of 4 on end zone targets this year. He was 7-of-13 last season. 14-of-20 in 2011. 6-of-6 in 2010. Elite production.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Next time someone drafts a WR on a bad team and says SOMEONE has to catch the football, tell him it's December and no Jet has 350 yards yet.
-Adam Harstad (@AdamHarstad)
James Jones has 16 TDs in the last two years. 14 of them came in 2012. Regression is a harsh mistress.
-Adam Harstad (@AdamHarstad)
Sometimes NFL stats aren't either RT @nfldraftscout: College production (stats, wins, etc) aren't a great indicator of NFL ability.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Also of Interest
Interesting conversation a few minutes ago regarding dynasty TEs, mainly Tyler Eifert and Ladarius Green and where they should be ranked. Personally, they are both top 10 options in dynasty redrafts. I have Eifert at 6 and Green around the 8-9 slot, but I think that's too low. Green is a physical freak, amongst 5-6 physical freaks at his position. But when you look at what he's done with such little opportunity... it's kind of amazing - and they hype is warranted. In PPR, Green has just 50.9 points... nothing to write home about, but look at his PPO (Points per Opportunity), he's sporting a robust 0.80. That's freaky good, but again, very small sample size. Compared to Graham (huge sample size), Green leads him in that cat by 0.16 PPO. It's not the PPO that has me giddy, either.. Usually, when someone, especially a TE, has a high PPO, it means they're reliant on the TD. Not the case here. Fauria (0.79 PPO) has 6 TDs Fauria's 6 TDs came on just 11 receptions... completely TD reliant as of right now, perhaps that can change. Green on the other hand, 1 TD. Green has 1 TD on 14 receptions. He's gained 309 yards on those rec, while Fauria has gained 130 yards on his 11. It's an odd comp, I know, but again, Green is someone who will eventually socre TDs once Gates is gone. Dude is 6'6 and weighs 240 pounds. A man that big shouldn't run like a gazelle (4.4s in the 40). In a McCoy offense, the sky really is the limit for Green. I love these kinds of convos on Twitter because it makes me reflect on my own rankings and opinions. I thought Green would be safe at 8-9. But I'm beginning to think he's more of a top 5 guy. The upside is just too great here...
Sorry to bogart your TLs... sometimes I need to tweet my thoughts to make sure I have them in my head correctly. GO BUY GREEN NOW
-Chad Scott (@Chad_Scott13)
Ladarius Green is the topic of the day. I really like him but wouldn’t give a 1st for him. Good chance you can get Ebron/Jace in 2nd instead
-Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23)
Remember when David Wilson did nothing as a rookie, then went in the 2nd round of startups? #christinemichael
-Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23)
(Michael may indeed work his way into the 2nd round of startups, and he’ll belong there every bit as much as David Wilson did. Which isn’t very much at all.)
This is where we're at w/ the NFL: Reviewing plays to see if a helmet came off before ball crosses goal line while player is knocked out.
-Jimmy Traina (@JimmyTraina)
I have received an abundance of "win now vs deep bench stash" questions lately. Let me make this clear: Even in #Dynasty you want to win now
Many of us in the #Dynasty community (myself included) can get enamored with potential. Rightly so, if you're a non-contender.
If you made the playoffs in your #Dynasty league, you must pull out all stops to win that championship.
-Karl Safchick (@KarlSafchick)
(Never let it be said I’m unwilling to present both sides of the debate…)
Man, Larry Fitzgerald's numbers are really underwhelming again this year. Have to think next year his fantasy ADP finally sinks.
-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)
Pete Carroll said nothing structurally wrong with Percy Harvin's hip. Enough worry w/ Harvin to visit his surgeon, however.
Have said from beginning that hip rehab a slower process than the optimism shown, but reason to worry after second episode of soreness.
-Jene Bramel (@JeneBramel)
No chance the Vikings won the Percy Harvin trade IMO.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Having a hard time ranking the top 6 WRs in dynasty, but in reality, it doesn’t matter. You’re happy to have any of the 6.
If you have 2 or more on the same team, you’re in the playoffs. Also, not likely trading one of them for another.
-Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23)
(I would disagree with Ryan on one thing. The top 6 Ryan is referring to are Calvin, Green, Julio, Demaryius, Dez, and Gordon. I would be ecstatic to trade Gordon for any other name on that list, because they all have just as much upside with a longer track record and a fraction of the risk.)
Announcers: "Everybody we talked to from Colts (in production meetings) was excited about Da'Rick Rogers."
-Chris Wesseling (@ChrisWesseling)
Many overreacted to Tate's game last week. I guarantee you instead of learning their lesson, they're now overreacting the other way.
The lesson here should be "don't draw big conclusions from any one game, no matter what." Won't be, but should be.
-Adam Harstad (@AdamHarstad)
Really good point being made on ARI-PHI telecast about how playing other sports when younger helps football players develop diverse skillset
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
What does Nick Foles have to do to make y'all believers?
-Joe Bussell (@NFLosophy)
Quarterbacks I would take Nick Foles over in dynasty: Brady, Kaep, Manning, Ryan. Waffling on Stafford, but leaning Foles.
-Adam Harstad (@AdamHarstad)
I own him in so many leagues that I actually have his rights in leagues I'm not in.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Yeah, pretty sure I've been way too slow to warm to Jeffery.
Honestly, I should be giving all Marc Trestman players the same treatment as I've been giving Chip Kelly players. Both too smart.
-Adam Harstad (@AdamHarstad)
Ronnie Hillman active over C.J. Anderson. This is why the saying isn't "where there's hype, there's fire".
-Adam Harstad (@AdamHarstad)
The reason behind Stevan Ridley being inactive, per Bill Belichick: "Because there were 46 players ahead of him that were active."
-Field Yates (@FieldYates)
There's no Luck or Elway this year. You're wrong if you think it's bad the Jags are winning. Important for new HC to build winning mentality
-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)
Trent Richardson & Mark Ingram fantasy owners see Knowshown Moreno and Donald Brown as new photo ex. replacing Ced Benson under patience.
-Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman)
Alshon Jeffery with 249 today, which is the over/under on how many pounds he'll weigh when he shows up for training camp next year.
-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)
(Easiest. Over. Ever.)
Overshadowing the Jordan Reed scratch, Rex Grossman is also out for Washington. RG3 will get the start at QB again.
-Josh Moore (@4for4_Josh)
David Wilson is about as memorable as a furbee right now.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Victor Cruz disappears far too often for me to consider him a true WR1. The 1500+ yards & fluky long TD's were a long time ago...
-Eric Hardter (@EDH_27)
Why is everyone who is having a good season a must sell in dynasty?!?!
-Eric Hardter (@EDH_27)
Pretty bad you trade a 1st-round pick for a RB and your QB is damn near out-rushing him.
Twitter's going to be fun the day the Colts release Trent Richardson. We should have a contest (ending 12/31/2013) for guessing the date.
-Scott Kacsmar (@FO_ScottKacsmar)
Much value can be gained from numbers analysis, and the information providers do the work for you. I have chosen a low information diet.
A low information diet makes it difficult to put in to words what you should look for in a player. Also difficult to speak it in a podcast.
-Josh Haymond (@JPesoFF)
If Alshon Jeffery is not a top 8 dynasty WR in your book than your book should be thrown in the trash.
If Michael Floyd is not a top 8 dynasty WR in your book than your book should be thrown in the trash.
#1 overall dynasty player in 2014 drafts should be Julio. #1 overall dynasty player in 2015 drafts will be Julio.
-Josh Haymond (@JPesoFF)
Players like Andre Holmes make me wish the waivers in my leagues didn't close prior to week 13...
-Eric Hardter (@EDH_27)
(Do leagues actually do this? This is a bigger travesty than trade deadlines!)
So Trent Richardson's fantasy value is now similar to that of Shonn Greene. Handful of touches off the bench, injury away from high volume
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
how do you value him in dynasty?
-Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23)
Still a baby from a RB perspective, but I was low on him before this season...so not too highly. I think , even if he's a late bloomer, that his ceiling is dramatically lower than what it first appeared. Shonn Greene-ish?
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Here's one topic I can easily foresee as a hot offseason debate - Is Nick Foles a QB1 moving forward?
-Eric Hardter (@EDH_27)
(Yes. End of debate.)
Is there any other player that is more disrespected by the #FantasyFootball (and #Dynasty) community than Pierre Garcon is?
If someone tells you to "sell high" on Garcon, be very skeptical. They may just be trying to prove their preseason prediction right.
Many people just can't admit they were wrong, so instead of doing that they call a player a "sell-high" instead of saying "I was wrong"
Don't trust those people. Instead look for forward thinking people with fluid rankings. They are the smartest people anyways.
-Karl Safchick (@KarlSafchick)
Chip Kelly on Nick Foles: “He’s the starting quarterback for the next 1,000 years here."
-Reuben Frank (@RoobCSN)
(Quick, someone offer a 3010 first rounder for him!)
I'm considering eliminating the trade deadlines in my dynasty league. What are the pros & cons?
-Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23)
I'm for removing them. You're dealing with smart owners right? Maybe don't allow it during playoffs. Otherwise, dump it.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
(Cons: some people will complain. Pros: everything else.)
You shouldn't be buying Gordon right now. You should be buying Crabtree, Harvin and Cobb. Just my opinion.
-Mark Rockwell (@Mark_Rockwell)
Never buy guys coming off of career games. Never. Just don't do it.
-Adam Harstad (@AdamHarstad)
Alshon. Better offense, less risk of suspension or other trouble RT @yodair21: If you could only keep 1 in dynasty, Gordon or Alshon?
-Chris Wesseling (@ChrisWesseling)
It has come to this.....Orwin Smith, a player I have never heard of, has a higher FanDuel salary this week than Trent Richardson.
-Chad Parsons (@ChadParsonsNFL)
What would you rather have in your #Dynasty league, Trent Richardson, or the ability to name your rivals team?
-Karl Safchick (@KarlSafchick)
Anyone have Trent Richardson burnout? I'm really kinda sick of hearing about him...
I'd much prefer if we talked about AFC South running back Jordan Todman who could be a star some day.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
2015 NFL Draft debate... Winston or Mariota? Start it up now. Like the great Matt Barkley - Landry Jones ones we had two years ago.
-P. Schrager (@PSchrags)
(Oh History, why do you have to so cruelly mock our wasted hours?)
I'm trying to figure out the right amount of leagues to be in. I feel like six is too many and not enough.
-Karl Safchick (@KarlSafchick)
SECOND THOUGHTS
Several weeks back, I mentioned that Jimmy Graham owners might regret not trading him back when he could fetch Rob Gronkowski plus another valuable piece in return. Sure enough, those two are starting to look a lot more like equals ever since Gronkowski returned to the field. Since week 7 (Gronk's debut), Gronkowski is outscoring Graham 80 to 75.5 in standard scoring and 117 to 106.5 in PPR. Over the course of the full season, Graham's 14.23 ppg average would be the third highest by a tight end in history... while Gronkowski's 13.33 ppg would give him three of the top six seasons. Both of these guys are phenomenal talents, and if you ever get a chance to trade one for the other plus an extra significant piece, to boot... you should take that chance.
Reed's concussion has cost me a chance to talk about him much in this space, but he still ranks 5th in fantasy points by a TE since week 7, despite missing two games and having a bye. That's extremely impressive, but doubly so for a rookie. Now, if only he could get healthy and get back to the business of setting records...
The flare-up in Percy Harvin's hip would provide a perfect chance to see if his owner is starting to get frustrated with owning him, if it weren't for the fact that nearly every league is past the trade deadline at this point. What's the deal? I thought we all joined dynasty leagues because we wanted a chance to be active year-round. There are few things more frustrating than seeing a buy-low window open and being unable to take advantage of it. The same goes for players like Ladarius Green, who are showing all sorts of potential. This might be the last chance to get him before his owner realizes what he has, and nobody can take advantage.
So, how about Montee Ball? His fumble against New England aside (in a game where no one could hold on to the football, as the teams combined for 11 fumbles and many more drops), Ball has been looking very impressive in recent weeks. As good as Knowshon Moreno has been, every strong game by Ball increases the chances that Denver lets him leave in free agency after the season. Kudos to anyone who bought him low before he got named the starter in that high-flying Denver offense. If you missed the boat on Ball, maybe it's not too late to at least grab C.J. Anderson. Denver hasn't been using him very much, but they wouldn't have kept an injured and undrafted RB on the roster all season if they didn't have plans for him in the future. Remember, Julius Thomas was another guy who made the team last year despite being injured and inactive for most of the season. The Broncos plan for the long term.
Speaking of the Broncos offense, how about that Eric Decker? His four receiving TDs were the most in team history, and it was just the fourth time any Denver player has scored 4 TDs of any type in one game (joining Mike Anderson and Clinton Portis, twice). Denver now has five players with at least 7 touchdowns. You don't know who is going to score in any given week, but you can be sure there will be plenty of TDs to go around. If you do own Decker, enjoy it while you can, because all signs point to him leaving Denver in free agency this offseason.
Two players who won't be leaving in free agency are Alshon Jeffery and Josh Gordon, and what a week the pair of them had. I've mentioned Gordon here a lot of times, and my thoughts on him haven't changed. He's a phenomenal talent who carries some pretty big risks. Difference-makers are so important in fantasy football that his talent is enough to overshadow a lot of those risks, but if I could move him for someone who paired that kind of talent with a lower risk profile, I'd be happy to do so. Someone like, I don't know... Alshon Jeffery.
Speaking of Jeffery, it's impressive how much he's produced with Brandon Marshall sharing the spotlight, until one looks deeper into Chicago's receiving corps. I'm not saying the rest of Chicago's WRs are bad, but all of the WRs outside of Marshall and Jeffery have combined for 193 receiving yards at 7.7 yards per reception. So I'm not saying they're very good, either.
I try not to do too much moralizing from my soap box here, but I've had some big discussions on the concept of tanking this week, and I do want to say one thing about it here. When we join fantasy leagues, we do so with certain unspoken expectations, and anything that violates those expectations is a problem. As an example, we expect that we will be engaging in an individual competition, and when two owners start colluding with one another, that expectation is violated. That's a problem. Another big expectation is that every week, we're going to be facing teams that are actually trying to win. More importantly, the teams we're competing against in a playoff race will also be facing teams that are actually trying to win. Tanking (defined as intentionally trying to lose a game) violates this expectation. Tanking is never fair play. Even if it helps your playoff seeding, even if it helps your draft pick, even if there aren't any specific rules against it, Tanking is poor sportsmanship and bad for the league. Unless your league has specifically discussed the subject and explicitly stated that tanking is fine, don't do it. You don't have to sacrifice the future to try to get some meaningless wins at the end of the season, but you absolutely have an obligation every week to submit the lineup you think gives you the best chance of winning your games. That improved draft pick or that better playoff seeding might look awfully tempting, but in the long run, you'll benefit more from playing in a league free from acrimony and drama.
And yes, I know I would have been a lot better off writing that last week instead of this week, but I didn't think about it at the time, and I figured it was better late than never.
Best of luck to everyone in their Week 14 games. I'll see you back here next week with plenty of NFL action to break down and plenty of dynasty implications to discuss!
