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Hey guys and gals, welcome to This Week in Dynasty. This is a new feature this year where we're going to discuss relevant developments from around the league with a dynasty slant. Everything is fair game, from high-level strategy to nitty-gritty player evals. If you have an suggestions for topics you'd like to see covered in this space, or if you'd just like to join the conversation, feel free to let me know on Twitter at @AdamHarstad.
The Big Takeaway
For the vast majority of fantasy owners, week 16 is a special week, a hallowed week, a week that is circled on the calendar before the year ever begins. For the vast majority of fantasy owners, week 16 is Super Bowl week, the week where, for one skilled (and, it must be said, more than a little bit lucky) owner, all of his weeks, months, and years of planning all come together and result in a championship.
In light of that, it seems somehow profane to devote the Big Takeaway this week to something as mundane as strategy, or odds, or goals, or the future. There are already 51 other weeks for that. Instead, I’d like to use the Takeaway this week as a celebration of this crazy, ridiculous hobby we’ve all devoted so much time and energy to. I’d like to tell a fantasy football story. It’s not my only story, but it’s certainly my best.
My first experience with fantasy football came back in 2001. I was on a gaming message board, and a guy named Tom was trying to get some people to join a Sporting News Salary Cap league with him. At the time, I had no idea what fantasy football was. In fact, the mere thought of knowing not just the stars on other teams, but even the second and third receivers, or the backup running backs… it seemed crazy to me. I wasn’t planning on joining, until someone else posted claiming that fantasy football was just for nerds with nothing better to do. In case you haven’t figured it out after reading my column for a season, “nerd with nothing better to do” is probably going to be carved on my tombstone, so let’s just say that had me intrigued. Still, I was hesitant. Tom- a complete stranger- offered to pay my entry fee for me, and out of excuses, I agreed.
That first year, I was a mess. As a Broncos fan, I had seen them play pretty frequently, but I knew absolutely nothing about the NFL outside of Denver. I could probably only name half of the teams off the top of my head, and I had no clue at all about conference affiliation, to say nothing of divisional. I could name about a dozen players who didn’t play on the Broncos, and in some cases, I’d be lucky if I could name their position. Speaking of positions, I didn’t really know what the deal was with those. I knew the running back ran the ball, and the receiver caught the ball, but what did a fullback do? What did a tight end do? What was the difference between a linebacker and safety? None of this knowledge was really important when my enjoyment of football basically just boiled down to watching the Broncos and hoping they scored more than the other team.
I don’t even remember how I did that year- probably pretty badly- but Tom, who had been playing fantasy football since the ‘80s, offered me advice along the way. By the end of the season, I was hooked. When Tom wanted to start a redraft league with the guys from our TSN league, I didn’t hesitate. Over the years, we just kept adding more leagues with the same core group of guys- more salary cap leagues, a second redraft league with “real-life friends”, a keeper league, and finally, in 2007, my very first dynasty league. Over that time, Tom and I started calling each other every week to chat about the NFL, our fantasy teams, the latest scuttlebutt on Footballguys (we were the only owners in our leagues who were members), and just life in general. In 2008, when unexpected health problems left him unprepared in August, I ran his rookie draft for him. I even drafted him Chris Johnson (with a first round pick that I’d traded to him), a fact that I have never let him forget. When I announced I was getting married, I was surprised to come home one afternoon and find that, without prompting, he’d shipped me an engagement gift. And when my soon-to-be wife and I were finalizing our invitations, one was sent out addressed to Tom. Some people might think it was crazy to send a wedding invitation to a guy I’d never met before. They would be right, but Tom was one of my best friends, and trying something a little bit crazy was what got me into fantasy football in the first place.
I got married in Miami the week before Christmas. To make things more fun for all the family flying in from out of state, we got married on a cruise ship and invited everyone to enjoy a nice vacation and a big family holiday when we got back. To my delight, Tom was able to make it down for the wedding and stay for the cruise. Even more to my delight, the Fantasy Gods were favorable that year, and the season ended with Tom and I facing each other in the fantasy Super Bowl. My wife and I spent the majority of our honeymoon avoiding our friends and family, which was pretty easy to do on a boat that large. We made a few exceptions, and one of them came Sunday, when I tracked down Tom and headed to a lounge for a few hours to catch the afternoon action. We’d both set our lineups a week in advance, and neither of us remembered with 100% certainty who we had chosen to start in some cases. We didn’t really know how the early games had gone, or who was leading, or how many points we needed. We had agreed ahead of time that, instead of blowing the $20 for internet access to check our scores, we’d leave it as a surprise until we each got home. Instead, we just sat, watched some football, and hung out.
It was a good memory, made all that much sweeter two days later when we both got home, rushed directly to our computers, navigated to our league… and discovered that I’d won, 136.7 to 117.5, as each of us had one of our worst games of the season. Tom and I didn't have many playoff meetings after that. In fact, while Tom and I had two of the best teams in the league, that was the last time we both made the playoffs in the same season until this year. There will be no Super Bowl rematch, as Tom already fell in the Semi-finals to my Jamaal Charles onslaught. Even if we get another rematch one day, there’s not going to be another day in fantasy football quite like December 21st, 2008 for me.
I’m sure you all have your own stories about how you got into fantasy football and the friends you’ve made and games you’ve won along the way. I’m sure you’ve all drawn your own share of raised eyebrows and strange looks, even as fantasy football has become more popular and begun to shed its “nerds with nothing better to do” stigma. I understand your passion in a way that only someone who shares it can. To all of my readers who have managed to reach the championship game this week, I wish you the best of luck, and I hope that you manage to hang another banner above your mantle this year. Even more, I hope that you manage to make another enduring memory in the process.
Heard Around the Water Cooler
The Eye Test
I love watching Cutler. That guy can make throws maybe 2 other guys in the league can make. A lot of "WTF! ...OH hey, great throw!"
-Joe Bussell (@NFLosophy)
Best broken/open field running receiver in the draft this past year was Keenan Allen
-Emory Hunt (@FBallGameplan)
Keenan Allen off the top turnbuckle for the touchdown
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
Ryan Mathews showed great signs in preseason he was running different and carried it into season. Sometimes preseason NFL does matter.
-Paymon Shokoohi (@SetMyRoster)
Mathews always had every physical trait you want in runner. Was missing reliability. Been reliable in '13, now reflected in usage. Bellcow.
-Evan Silva (@evansilva)
EJ Manuel looks worse than last week, which defies laws of physics
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
I do wonder if Kaepernick would have looked as bad as EJ if he started during his rookie season.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Manuel looks so much better pushing the ball down the field.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
I'm still preaching patience on Trent Richardson, but this is a runner with no confidence and even less burst through the hole right now.
-Patrick Daugherty (@Rotopat)
Pierre Garcon is the cheapest WR1 in #Dynasty
-Karl Safchick (@KarlSafchick)
It's not me. It's you, Case Keenum.
-Chris Wesseling (@ChrisWesseling)
Jordan Todman is proving that the Jaguars don't need to re-sign MJD...and MJD has been really, really good this year
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Zach Ertz just gave his dynasty owners a nice warm fuzzy feeling.
-Adam Harstad (@AdamHarstad)
Been saying for years Edelman could replace Welker with ease in this offense.
-Scott Kacsmar (@FO_ScottKacsmar)
What a play by Kap and Crabs. Kept the play alive and then a strike on the run.
-Joe Bussell (@NFLosophy)
Alshon Jeffrey is out of control. 4th TD catch in last 3 games. Don't need separate as route runner when you win his % of jump balls.
-Todd McShay (@McShay13)
Matt Asiata may have had the least impressive three-touchdown performance in NFL history
-Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan)
Eddie Lacy is already one of the best backs in the NFL IMO.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
This Holmes kid might be a keeper. Former Cowboys backup.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Unreal one-handed catch by Andre Holmes. He's made more wow plays in the last month than Miles Austin has made in three years.
-Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan)
Andre Ellington is just straight lightning in a bottle...
-Eric Hardter (@EDH_27)
It looks like Mendenhall was just waiting to get healthy earlier in the season. Been very good recently seemingly.
I've always been a Mendenhall fan. Was under-appreciated before torn ACL.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
No rational #NFL can watch Eddie Lacy and Montee Ball & prefer the #Broncos back - said it from day one #ShouldaBeenLacy
-Cecil Lammey (@cecillammey)
I love this battle for OROY right now between Eddie Lacy and Keenan Allen. I lean Lacy. Foundation of the Pack offense, already top-five RB.
-Andrew Mishler (@andrewmishler)
Le'Veon Bell is really, really fun to watch if you like smart RBs and you haven't seen much of him this year.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Again, I'm counting ~17 QBs I'd take over Tannehill, so that still makes him average.
-Scott Kacsmar (@FO_ScottKacsmar)
Curious who you'd take over him?
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Brady, Ben, Flacco, Luck, Peyton, Rivers, Smith, Romo, Eli, Rodgers, Cutler, Stafford, Brees, Cam, Ryan, Wilson, Kap.
-Scott Kacsmar (@FO_ScottKacsmar)
Think I'd take 10 of them.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
I'm not factoring in age. If anything, youth is a negative here since there's less to go on/trust.
-Scott Kacsmar (@FO_ScottKacsmar)
I know. I'm taking 10 just thinking about who I'd want now.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Plays like that are why I've completely thrown out LeVeon's numbers for his rankings this year.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Ninth TD for Marvin Jones. Unlikely to match that in 2014, but should be on your watch list. Can be a WR3 if he ever nails down the #2 job
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Eric Decker will be top FA receiver & is candidate to be badly overpaid. Like him as 2/3 but not pass game carrier & may get paid like one.
-Evan Silva (@evansilva)
Discussed best screen-pass backs on #NFLATL Podcast. Charles might have moved ahead of Pierre Thomas. Lions' Joique Bell pretty good too.
-Chris Wesseling (@ChrisWesseling)
Rice hasn't been THAT bad this year. Everything is just a little bit slower and a horrible offensive line multiplies the impact of that.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
I like Joique Bell, but I wouldn't want him carrying the ball 300 times a year. His vision isn't great.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
The Numbers Game
Actually here's an incredible stat: Julius Thomas has caught 23 of 26 (88%) targets when in the slot this year. 281 yards, 4 TD
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Ryan Mathews is a 100-yard game machine. Now tied with Shady, Peterson for most this season. 5 times in last 9 games
-Chris Wesseling (@ChrisWesseling)
Another end zone target for Hakeem Nicks. No dice. Hasn't converted one since 2011.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Vikings score 48 without Adrian Peterson. The most they've scored with AP is 44 (and even that day he had 10 touches). Yeah, makes sense.
-Scott Kacsmar (@FO_ScottKacsmar)
#eagles havent allowed more than 21 points since Week 4. Of course the Adrian Peterson-less #vikings break through for 48. Of course they do
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
Jamaal Charles has more fantasy points than rushing yards.
-Jordan Heck (@JordanHeckFF)
Alex Smith's 5 TD passes traveled a combined 13 yards downfield
-Josh Dubow (@JoshDubowAP)
Matt Flynn's led a 23-point comeback win and 16-point tie. Largest for Favre? 14 points. Rodgers? 14 points.
-Scott Kacsmar (@FO_ScottKacsmar)
9th end zone target of the year for Antonio Brown. 4th conversion. Was 2-of-17 career entering 2013.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
After that catch Antonio Brown is now 1/16 in terms of converting red zone targets into TDs in 2013.
For his career Brown is 5/35 in converting red zone targets into TDs.
-Fantasy Douche (@FantasyDouche)
Roethlisberger has 51 TD, 18 INT under Haley and the two lowest sack rates of his career. Though, other areas (YPA, 3rd down, red zone) down
-Scott Kacsmar (@FO_ScottKacsmar)
Jamaal Charles joins Marshall Faulk as the only RBs since 1970 with 195 receiving yards in a game.
-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)
Entering tonight: 5 carries from the 1 for Green-Ellis (11 inside 5). 0 from the 1 for Bernard (2 inside 5) #Bengals
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Jimmy Graham with 36 TDs (and counting) in first four seasons, tied for ninth-most among WR/TEs since 1970. Dez 40, Gronk 43, other actives.
-Chad Parsons (@ChadParsonsNFL)
More work for Marquise Goodwin? Not so much. Only 15 snaps.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Jordan Todman was in on 67 of 77 snaps. Only 9 for Denard Robinson.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Bryce Brown did not play a snap for the Eagles yesterday. Chip gave Chris Polk (9) a look as the 2.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Surprised to see that Pierre Thomas leads all RBs with 71 receptions, 21 more than his previous career high.
-Chris Wesseling (@ChrisWesseling)
Kendall Wright is one of 15 WRs with 1,000 yards. Only 6 WRs have more than his 85 receptions -- including Julian Edelman.
-Chris Wesseling (@ChrisWesseling)
Also of Interest
Looking at my rankings, I see 15 QBs I wouldn't mind being my starter at all heading into offseason. Need great value to reach in startups
The least sexy name within that top-15 is Ryan Tannehill and those who are not comfortable with him in that QB1 mix, will be a year from now
Oh, and list did not include Roethlisberger, who has been hot of late and can be argued into that mix. A Tanny/Big Ben QBBC, cheap-effective
Cutler-Dalton also outside that list, so those bullish on them can boost that 15-ish QB1 types up to 17 or 18.
-Chad Parsons (@ChadParsonsNFL)
Washington player in text to me: "95 percent of the players agree with decision to go to Cousins."
-Mike Freeman (@MikeFreemanNFL)
If I put Russell Wilson at the top of my #Dynasty QB rankings, would anyone call me crazy at this point?
-Karl Safchick (@KarlSafchick)
not sure he passes enough to earn that spot
-Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23)
Justin Hunter violated team rules before Kenny Britt this year? That's award-worthy.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Jamaal Charles puts my season to a quick end. Thanks for making it a quick kill JC.
-Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23)
Admit it, you were thinking "Why did I ever believe a Cleveland Brown would be the key to a fantasy championship?" before that Gordon TD
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
From a dynasty standpoint, Andrew Quarless is an interesting guy. Could be the starter next year with Finley gone.
-John Paulsen (@4for4_John)
At some point you'd think the Cowboys would make a good decision just by accident.
-Fantasy Douche (@FantasyDouche)
So Dallas has blown two 23+ point leads at home since 2011. San Diego has one. The other 30 teams have 0 since 1999.
-Scott Kacsmar (@FO_ScottKacsmar)
No matter how many times I correct my grandma, she still insists Bill Belichick is Tom Brady's father.
-Scott Kacsmar (@FO_ScottKacsmar)
Someone just tweeted they are praying Reggie Bush gets paralyzed on the first play of the game tomorrow. Rethink your life, dude.
-Chad Scott (@Chad_Scott13)
Hakeem Nicks' FA market will be fascinating. Smart GMs wont offer more than one-year, prove-it deal but someone could get real desperate.
-Evan Silva (@EvanSilva)
gonna come down to medicals. hard to say, but he might have lost something he'll never get back bc of all of the leg injuries
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
Kendall doesn't score enough touchdowns in a similar fashion to how Antonio Brown didn't score enough touchdowns.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
One of two things happening here.
1. Freeman has been so bad since he arrived in MIN that they don't think he's worth another look. 2. They're trying to kill his FA market
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Love the notion of "grinding" tape. You're watching T.V., not operating a jackhammer or laying railroad ties.
-Patrick Daugherty (@RotoPat)
Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Updated @DraftTV (click Dynasty) Let me know what you think! http://drafttv.com/content/fantasy-rankings/
-Shane P. Hallam (@ShanePHallam)
Second Thoughts
Jamaal Charles: Kingmaker. Unless he lays an egg this week, I think Charles might set a new record for the most commonly-owned player on championship teams this decade.
So the word out of Minnesota is that, if they had been in the playoff hunt, Peterson could have played last week? At this point, I want Adrian Peterson to be compelled to submit to a blood test. Not because I think he's taking any performance-enhancing drugs, but because I'd like some confirmation that he's actually human.
Honestly, after 16 weeks of action, opinions on players aren't going to change very much. Nor should they. I mentioned early in the season that every observation represented an incredibly small sample. Well, after a season's worth of observations, we have a very substantial sample, and it takes more and more evidence to change our opinions every passing week. That means feel free to give yourself permission to watch a few games for fun this weekend, rather than making everything yet another scouting exercise. There are only a few more weeks of real football left before we all enter the long offseason slog.
The major exception to the above is players that we have still seen very little of this year- guys like Michael Crabtree and Shane Vereen. If you really want to focus your attention where you'll get the best return, watch the injury-list all stars and see if any of them are able to change your mind about them.
If you're one of the majority of teams that have already been eliminated, you tend to get short shrift in week 16. I feel your pain in every league but one this year. For you, this week is an opportunity to greive for a season lost. Next week, we perform a postmortem on a season gone wrong, and begin the long run up to 2014, where a brand, shiny new week 16 stands, waiting for us to claim our place...
Best of luck to everyone in their fantasy championships. I'll see you back here next week with plenty of NFL action to break down and plenty of dynasty implications to discuss!
