Hey guys and gals, welcome to This Week in Dynasty. This is a new feature this year where we're going to discuss relevant developments from around the league with a dynasty slant. Everything is fair game, from high-level strategy to nitty-gritty player evals. If you have an suggestions for topics you'd like to see covered in this space, or if you'd just like to join the conversation, feel free to let me know on Twitter at @AdamHarstad.
The Big Takeaway
Last week in this space we talked about backup running backs to stash with an eye towards the 2014 season. This week, let’s move our gaze over to the ranks of backup quarterbacks to single out some players worth rostering.
For starters, a lot of people are resistant to the idea of rostering backup quarterbacks. If you look at many rankings, you won’t see backups appearing until you’re 25 or more names deep. Often, high-quality backups will appear behind known mediocrities like Alex Smith and Carson Palmer. My philosophy on quarterback rankings is that I’m not concerned with guys who might get me a low-end QB1 season or two. Low-end QB1 production is cheap. Guys like Palmer and Ben Roethlisberger are always available for pennies in dynasties, and if those guys aren’t available, there are always fill-ins like Matt McGloin, Josh McCown, or Scott Tolzien available on the waiver wire, all of whom are capable of stepping in and providing startable numbers on a short-term basis. Since low-end QB1 / high-end QB2 production is so easily replaceable, there’s no reason to spend time and effort acquiring players with that kind of upside. Guys like Eli Manning and Joe Flacco have incredible job security and will be around for years, but if you can get similar production out of no-name guys off the wire, why pay the brand name premium for the stars?
Since I’m not interested in the known mediocrities, I’d much rather stock the ends of my roster with guys who are complete unknowns with very high upside. Players of that vintage in recent years have included Colin Kaepernick and Nick Foles, who have both surprised many in stepping into a starter’s role and immediately producing top-10 fantasy numbers. Just like with the running backs, history demonstrates how good of a gamble backup quarterbacks has been. Of the top 30 fantasy scorers since the 2002 season, 11 earned the starting job during their rookie season (Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Donovan McNabb, Jay Cutler, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Kerry Collins, Alex Smith, Jeff Garcia, Matt Stafford), while 19 started 2 or fewer games their rookie year. That’s an identical rate to the number of top-30 RBs who were backups at some point during their career. Here’s the breakdown of those backups and their situations:
- Drew Brees (Drafted 32nd, sat for 1 year behind Doug Flutie)
- Tom Brady (Drafted 199th, sat for 1 year behind Drew Bledsoe)
- Brett Favre (Drafted 33rd, sat for 1 year behind Chris Miller)
- Matt Hasselbeck (Drafted 187th, sat for 2 years behind Brett Favre)
- Carson Palmer (Drafted 1st, sat for 1 year behind Jon Kitna)
- Philip Rivers (Drafted 4th, sat for 2 years behind Drew Brees)
- Michael Vick (Drafted 1st, sat for 1 year behind Chris Chandler)
- Tony Romo (Undrafted, sat for 2 years behind Vinny Testeverde and Drew Bledsoe)
- Aaron Rodgers (Drafted 24th, sat for 3 years behind Brett Favre)
- Matt Schaub (Drafted 90th, sat for 3 years behind Michael Vick)
- Marc Bulger (Drafted 168th, bounced around the league for 2 years before sticking with the Rams)
- Daunte Culpepper (Drafted 11th, sat for 1 year behind Jeff George and Randall Cunningham)
- Jake Delhomme (Undrafted, backed up a rotating cast in New Orleans for 4 years)
- Jon Kitna (Undrafted, sat for 1 year behind Warren Moon)
- David Garrard (Drafted 108th, sat for 3 years behind Byron Leftwich)
- Kurt Warner (Undrafted, bounced around for 5 years before getting a start)
- Trent Green (Drafted 222nd, bounced around for 5 years before getting a start)
- Chad Pennington (Drafted 18th, sat for 2 years behind Vinny Testeverde)
- Ryan Fitzpatrick (Drafted 250th, bounced around for 3 years before earning a starting job)
As with the backup running backs, lining all of the successful backup quarterbacks against each other like this highlights a few common themes. 8 of the 19 backups were selected within the top 33 picks, with 5 of those 8 sitting just one year, 2 of the 8 sitting two years, and just 1 of the 8 sitting for three years (Aaron Rodgers, stuck behind first-ballot Hall of Famer Brett Favre). The average wait time for this group was just 1.5 seasons. These guys were clearly drafted as the heir apparent to the quarterback job. The second big group is made up of 9 quarterbacks who were all drafted 168th or later. These guys were all pleasant surprises, who had no expectations surrounding them after the draft. On average, this second group had to wait 2.8 seasons before getting the starting job, or nearly twice as long as the “heir apparent” group. In between these two groups, we saw just two quarterbacks drafting in the middle rounds (between 33rd and 168th) who went on to have long, productive careers over the last decade plus. Also, these quality backups were far more likely to be stuck behind a strong, productive veteran than just some average joe QB.
So, with these examples in mind, what current NFL backups are appealing players to roster in dynasty leagues?
Tier 1:
Brock Osweiler - Osweiler ticks a lot of boxes. He was drafted relatively high (late 2nd round) by a Broncos squad that intended to turn him into the future of the franchise. He plays behind a first-ballot Hall of Famer, but that Hall of Famer is aging and his future is uncertain. Perhaps most importantly, Osweiler is surrounded by the most deadly array of offensive weapons in the NFL today. If Osweiler does manage to get the Denver job, he will likely have no trouble punishing owners who don’t believe in rostering backups.
Tier 2:
Ryan Mallett - Mallett was a later pick than Osweiler (3rd round), but otherwise ticks many of the same boxes- reasonably high pick stuck behind a first-ballot Hall of Famer in a fantastic offense. The biggest difference between the two is that the most likely outcome for Osweiler is that he eventually takes over in the weapon-loaded Denver Broncos offense, while the most likely outcome for Mallett is that he is either traded or leaves in free agency following the 2014 season and takes over a lesser offense somewhere else. As I mentioned above, since ranking QBs is all about upside, that likely difference in weapons is enough to leave Osweiler a cut above.
Michael Vick - Including Vick is cheating to some extent, because Vick is not a rookie backup patiently waiting for a chance to show what he has. Vick is a pretty known commodity at this point. Nevertheless, he still finds himself a backup once again, and he finds himself a free agent after this season. We can argue all day about his merits as an NFL quarterback, but the one thing that cannot be argued is that Vick runs… a lot. Since most fantasy leagues reward rushing yardage at least twice as heavily as passing yardage, quarterbacks who aren’t afraid to run it will have the highest upside. And since upside is the name of the game, Vick will always represent a strong “what the heck” flier to stash as a 3rd QB and hope for the best.
Tier 3:
Kirk Cousins - Cousins is another player who fell into the mid-rounds, which means he wasn’t drafted highly enough to be the heir apparent, and he wasn’t drafted low enough to be a pleasant surprise. The biggest knock on Cousins is that he has no clear path to playing time; the starter in front of him is firmly entrenched and neither player is set to hit free agency any time soon. Cousins will likely require much more patience than some of the other quarterbacks on this list. Still, as Aaron Rodgers and Kurt Warner and Trent Green and Philip Rivers demonstrated, the rewards for a little bit of patience can be very high, indeed. Probably not worth burning a roster spot on for an extended period in shallow leagues (unless you already happen to be the Robert Griffin III owner), but Cousins should definitely be rostered in all deeper leagues.
Josh Freeman - Like Vick, including Freeman is cheating to some extent, since he’s already been an established starter in the league. Still, his situation in Tampa was particularly toxicant if anyone deserved a mulligan for the season, Freeman would be it. He had some phenomenal seasons early in his career, and has as good of a chance as anyone of recapturing the magic.
Matt McGloin - Technically not a backup anymore thanks to a recent injury to Terrell Pryor, McGloin also fits the profile of a young undrafted quarterback from whom no one expected anything. In his first starts, McGloin has looked fairly impressive- perhaps even impressive enough to end the Terrelle Pryor experiment and earn the starting job on a more permanent basis going forward.
Chase Daniel - One of my favorite candidates for the “pleasant surprise” category. Daniel has spent most of his career backing up Drew Brees, and recently found himself in Kansas City hoping for a shot. Alex Smith is certainly no world beater, so Daniel’s shot may come sooner rather than later. Like all undrafted players, he’s a long shot… but I’d rather gamble on a longshot unknown than a proven dud.
If history is any indication, with the full benefit of hindsight we will look back in the coming years and say that several of the QBs on this list were clearly among the 20 most valuable dynasty QBs in the league today. Despite that, you will rarely see true backups appearing anywhere near there in forward-looking dynasty rankings, as many owners are very conservative about preferring a backup over a less-talented passer with a clear starting opportunity. I think that true backups are undervalued for the exact same reason that injured players are undervalued; if they’re not producing points right this very second, people tend to forget about them. Hopefully the list above of just how many fantasy studs have been NFL backups can convince you to start acquiring some currently unproductive players, too. The cost is tiny, and the potential rewards are huge.
Heard Around the Water Cooler
The Eye Test
.@iHateLockouts Super raw. And the coaching at Tennessee was awful. He and Patterson were at a disadvantage there. Bray and Rivera too.
-Joe Bussell (@NFLosophy)
(This tweet is regarding Justin Hunter)
Bobby Rainey is not a finesse runner. What stood out was how tough he ran on Sunday. Broke a ton of tackles. Averaging 4 yards after contact
-Joe Bussell (@NFLosophy)
The more I watch Nick Foles, the more I love him as a QB. This kid sure looks like the real deal.
Foles' best trait is quickly identifying the defense both pre and post snap, understanding how his route combos match, hits the right WR.
Foles is the perfect fit for this offense. Quick decisions, good ball placement, puts ball where WR can get it but hard for CB to get to it
Efficient decision making, smart, poised, accurate, and consistent. Foles' is hot right now and I suspect he can keep it up.
-Joe Bussell (@NFLosophy)
(Speaking of NFL backups who should have been ranked ahead of lots of starters…)
28 of 33 plays from Kaepernick vs. NO appeared to be focused only on his first read. 33 of 40 against GB in Week 1 did the same.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Nifty play for Tavon Austin TD run. Tavon reversing field is faster than most running straight
-Chris Brown (@SmartFootball)
Keenan Allen is ridiculous. So good after catch. Making a run at OROY.
-Gregg Rosenthal (@greggrosenthal)
Ben Tate has looked so slow in recent weeks.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Case Keenum is turning back into a pumpkin
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
Keenum misses Johnson wide open as he throws the ball too high. Rough day. Doesn't look as confident either tbh.
Don't be fooled, Keenum isn't playing like he was last week. Last week he was making plays when he was benched, this week he looks shot.
It's speculation and too easy to think because it fits the narrative, but he doesn't look to have that confidence/aggression from before
Major concerns about Keenum based on this game
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Justin Hunter and Mikey Floyd both over 100 receiving yards. Get used to those names.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Titans drafted my top ranked WR in back to back years (Wright, Hunter). So for me, I firmly believe they are set there. Now, get the QB.
-Paymon Shokoohi (@SetMyRoster)
With the right QB, Hunter and Wright will be the best WR duo in the NFL within three years #BookIt
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Draft twitter, @MattWaldman was right about LeVeon Bell, you were wrong. He's been outstanding in PIT.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Two draft things that were really, really overblown: Tavon Austin is too small and LeVeon Bell runs too high.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Ladarius Green has back to back 80+ yard games. He looks like a stud in the making.
-John Paulsen (@4for4_John)
Anquan Boldin is rarely wide open, but he's ALWAYS open
-Cecil Lammey (@cecillammey)
This is the thing though, Vernon Davis is an absolute monster and is on the level of Gronk and Graham as an all-around TE.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
RG3 looks good to me, but then again, I watch a ton of Jets football.
-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)
I'm not his biggest fan, but you know what RGIII is? Young. Neither terrible or great yet. He's still developing even outside of injury.
What I do like about al the coverage of both of these quarterbacks is that more people will look at the QB position differently.
"He can run. He can throw it far. He can throw it accurately." It's more than that.
And no, that doesn't mean, "He has to be a winner" because that's just nonsense talk. It means he has to develop mentally.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Every time RG3 runs I think it might be his last run.
-Will Brinson (@WillBrinson)
Get Justin Hunter and Kendall Wright a quarterback. Love that tandem in dynasty leagues going forward
-Bryan Fontaine (@Bryan_Fontaine)
I talked to one of our scouts that said RG3 wouldn't make it as a QB in the NFL in 2011. He's been more correct than I have so far.
To the WAS fans in my mentions, I'm not saying RG3 is done. Just saying that I'm beginning to have doubts.
I'm always the one to say it's too early on players, especially QBs. I'm not judging long term on RG3. Just saying right now it looks bad.
-Joe Bussell (@NFLosophy)
If Josh Gordon only had a quarterback...man. Maybe he's a risk but that kid is a huge talent.
-Joe Bussell (@NFLosophy)
I call it "oh shit" speed. Very possibly fastest guy in NFL RT @Marcus_Mosher Saw Goodwin in person last week and my goodness is he fast
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
Only discussion should be whether he's a unanimous All-Pro or just an All-Pro RT @Marcus_Mosher discussion if Antonio Brown is a #1 WR.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Eddie Lacy broke so many tackles last week that I think the Vikings as a franchise may not recover for a few years.
He really is just Marshawn Lynch 2.0 right now...
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Arm talent to me isn't just strength, it's the control of the trajectory and the touch. Why Rodgers is at the top IMO. Kaep probly second.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
The Numbers Game
Weeks 6-7-8 Marvin Jones put up 64 fantasy points. Weeks 1-2-3-4-5-9-10-11 = 28 pts
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Michael Floyd is 26th in FF points at WR. One of the more consistent producers, as well.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Lacy had 20+ carries just twice in 34 games at Alabama. Already 20+ in 6 of 9 games with Packers.
-Chris Wesseling (@ChrisWesseling)
Julio Jones is still the season team leader in targets inside the 10-yard-line for the Falcons, 30% more than Harry Douglas. Still.
-Chad Parsons (@ChadParsonsNFL)
Among 1st year undrafted players through their first four starts, Case Keenum's 99.0 passer rating ranks No.1 ahead of Warren Moon (80.5).
-NFL Access (@NFL_Access)
Yikes. Ike Taylor has allowed 316 receiving yards to Calvin Johnson and Josh Gordon last two games. And this game not over yet.
-Gerry Dulac (@gerrydulac)
Philip Rivers had about 100 yards and no TDs when Justin Houston went out 28 min into game. Ended up at 392 and 3 TDs.
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
LeGarrette Blount has 12 fumbles among 508 career carries (2.36%). Stevan Ridley has 9 fumbles among 512 career carries (1.76%).
-Evan Silva (@evansilva)
Manning had 23 reg. season games in a row with passer rating of 90+. Previous record was 15 (he set it). That will end.
-Scott Kacsmar (@FO_ScottKacsmar)
Mike Glennon is 144 of his last 224 (64.3%) for 1,589 yards (7.09 YPA), 12 TDs, 2 INTs. Best rookie QB this year & it isn't even close.
-Evan Silva (@evansilva)
Justin Hunter with a 41 to 5 snap advantage over Kenny Britt, who dropped both of his targets. Hunter caught all 6 for 109 and a TD.
-Pat Thorman (@Pat_Thorman)
34% of the Vikings throws have gone to Cordarrelle Patterson over the last 2 weeks. That's a massive number.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Eagles QB Nick Foles had a 152.8 passer rating in November; the highest in any calendar month in NFL history (minimum 50 attempts).
-NFL Access (@NFL_Access)
(Those backup quarterbacks…)
Only Calvin Johnson (119.8) is averaging more receiving yards per game than Josh Gordon (109.8).
-Patrick Daugherty (@RotoPat)
For the YPC crowd…. In Pittbsurgh's last three games, all wins, Le'Veon Bell has 173 yards on 63 carries - 2.75 YPC.
-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)
37 carries on 63 snaps for Knowshon Moreno. That is a crazy ratio at that volume of snaps.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Denard Robinson was 4th among Jaguars tailbacks with 2 snaps played yesterday.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Trent Richardson out-snapped Donald Brown 40 to 16 yesterday. Didn't expect that.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Larry Fitzgerald has caught 6 EZ targets this yr, trailing only Brandon Marshall (7) LF was 0-for-9 on end-zone targets last year
-Cecil Lammey (@cecillammey)
Knowshon Moreno had 208 rushing yards in between the tackles, the most in a game since 2007 (Jamal Lewis, 219).
-Cecil Lammey (@cecillammey)
Michael Crabtree - responsible for 30% of the 49ers targets and 44% of the TD receptions - set to return in Week 13 (likely limited)
Vernon Davis saw 15% of the 49ers targets last year. Averaging 26% in 2013 with Crabtree out.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Since the Reggie Wayne injury in Week 8, Coby Fleener has been the #4 TE in PPR, TY Hilton the #7 WR and TRich is the #37 RB...
-Chad Scott (@Chad_Scott13)
Falcons with Julio Jones this year: 2.6 offensive TDs-per-game ... Without Julio Jones: 1.7 per game.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Stephen Hill has not caught a pass in his last three active games. Is this another Kenny Britt?
Stephen Hill has 107 receiving yards in his last eight games...after having 86 yards and 108 yards in W2/3 this season.
-Chad Parsons (@ChadParsonsNFL)
A.J. Jenkins caught Jon Baldwin in receiving yards (28) yesterday, but still trails in catches 3-2.
-Heath Cummings (@heathcummingssr)
Dynasty issue indeed RT @heathcummingssr In standard scoring leagues, 5 of the top 10 RBs are 28 or older...8 of the top 15.
-Chad Parsons (@ChadParsonsNFL)
Kendall Wright's stats in Fitz's 5 games of extensive play: 7-78; 5-69; 6-74; 9-80; 6-103-1. Every-week WR2 in PPR. Getting there in non.
-Evan Silva (@evansilva)
Over TY Hilton's last 16 games, he has 23 catches, 217 yds, 0 TD playing outdoors (6 gms). Has 45 catches, 901 yds, 7 TDs indoors (10 gms).
-Evan Silva (@evansilva)
Also of Interest
Hard to believe Dennis Pitta is already 28. Will be 29 when 2014 season kicks off.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Think FF world still waking up to possibilities of how valuable Marquise Goodwin could be long term. Already a "long TD every other week" WR
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
Consider their contract equal, would you rather have Trent Richardson or Mark Ingram right now?
-Scott Kacsmar (@FO_ScottKacsmar)
As I mention in today's Dynasty Stock Market, now is the ideal time to search your dynasty waiver wire for stash worthy players.
Unlike most years, there are very few RBs/WRs worth grabbing. Anyone who has shown any upside is already rostered, most likely.
That is due, in part to the lack of quality RBs. Anyone showing anything is added quickly, and then rostered, hoping they again show promise
WRs on the other hand, are the new studs owners are building teams around, so everyone wants them all, even if they've done zilch so far.
This leaves some quality QBs/TEs worth adding as we approach the offseason. You might even find the next, Cameron/JT, as we all hope for.
-Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23)
Beat writers are tabbing Brandon Bostick as the future starting tight end for GB. Go get him now.
-Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23)
It may not surprise many that A.Morris still leads the league in YPC (min 100 carries), but it may surprise you that D.Murray is 2nd (4.9)
-Karl Safchick (@KarlSafchick)
Ryan Mathews is averaging as many YPC (4.4) as Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte, Marshawn Lynch, Arian Foster, Jamal Charles, and Frank Gore.
-Karl Safchick (@KarlSafchick)
Alshon Jefferey is quickly becoming a WR1 and given their respective ages, his value should be approaching B.Marshall's level.
-Karl Safchick (@KarlSafchick)
Someone should ask the SD coaches why they haven't tried to get Ladarius more involved this year. Seriously.
-Fantasy Douche (@FantasyDouche)
@FantasyDouche They want to buy low in dynasy leagues this offseason.
-Michael (@mjreardon62)
Jason Witten has been used a ton more near the end zone this year. Explains why he's finally scoring TDs.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
He said he ruined Willie Parker’s career & doesn’t want to ruin Ellington’s RT @Andrew_Garda: Bruce Arians hates Andre Ellington doesn't he?
-Tyson Langland (@TysonNFL)
(This is a very important point. More to follow in this week’s second thoughts…)
Ryan Mathews and Knowshon Moreno? What's gotten into AFC West backs this year? At least McFadden is still McFadden.
-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)
Assuming Calvin/Green/Julio/DT/Dez/Gordon are among the top 10 dynasty WRs, who are the other 4?
I received around 50 responses and the following is how the “voting” broke down, in reverse order.
Andre Johnson, Keenan Allen, Wes Welker, Vincent Jackson, Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd all got one vote as a top 10 #dynasty WR
TY Hilton & DeSean Jackson got 2 votes, while Pierre Garçon & Torrey Smith got 5 votes each.
The next “tier” included Antonio Brown (9 votes), Victor Cruz (10) & Percy Harvin (11)
That leaves our 4 top vote getters- Jordy Nelson (16), Brandon Marshall (17), Alshon Jeffery (20) and Randall Cobb (22).
Based on that, we can some consistent agreement on a top 10- Calvin, Green, Julio, Dez, DT, Gordon, Cobb, Jeffery, Marshall, Jordy. #dynasty
-Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23)
Dynasty note: Garrett Graham scheduled for unrestricted free agency this offseason. Turns 28 in 9 months. Starting job will be on radar.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
It's just harder for little guys to be dominant. Tavon Austin can go off, Wes Welker can get 10 catches, but...Gronk/Graham can DOMINATE.
-Chris Raybon (@ChrisRaybon)
Every fan thinks their own coach is the league's worst game/clock manager. And they're all wrong. Unless they live in Washington.
-Brian Burke (@Adv_NFL_Stats)
The elite QB tier that looked 10 deep 3 months ago isn't looking so strong now. Makes Manning/Brees worth a lot more, even in dynasty.
-Ryan Mcdowell (@RyanMc23)
Adrian Peterson responsible in part for how RG3 situation has unfolded. Only kind of joking. Pre-AD, expectations for ACL return rational.
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
Jordan Reed's year in injuries & missed time: Thigh (OTAs), mid-foot sprain (preseason opener), Quad (Wk 4), Hip (None), Concussion (Wk 11)
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
Julian Edelman was available as a free agent this yr for about a month, ended up signing a 1 yr/765K deal. Guessing that won't happen again.
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
As the FF season winds down, I am reminded that the most successful owners in my leagues are the ones that are also most active. #dynasty
-Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23)
I traded what's going to end up being the 1.02 straight up for Michael Floyd. I don't regret my decision at all.
-Doug Veatch (@Harahduh2)
Eagles coach Chip Kelly has officially named Nick Foles the stating QB for the remainder of the season.
-NFL Access (@NFL_Access)
(Score yet another one for rostering high-upside backups over low-upside starters. Had this list been compiled two months ago, Foles would have ranked very high.)
A youth strategy in a dynasty startup will setup your squad for years. Maybe not year one, but year two and so on will be ridiculous.
-Doug Veatch (@Harahduh2)
Danny Woodhead on pace for Triple Crown of PPR backs: leads the league in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns.
-Ryan Boser (@Ryan_Boser)
Easiest #RegressionAlert of all time. RT @adamlevitan: Tavon Austin: I would never use him in fantasy. Has 9 offensive touches in last 4 gm
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Placing a draft pick value on a veteran player can be difficult at times, and of course varies across leagues.
Nearly impossible to definitively say "X player is worth the 1.10 in all leagues." One strategy I use is to compare vets to incoming rookies
Rather than asking what pick is Matt Ryan worth, I compare Ryan to Teddy Bridgewater.
If I already rank Teddy higher & can get him w/ the 1.06, then that's the value I place on Ryan. Doesn't mean I have to take Teddy...
but gives me an idea of how I should value the veterans.
-Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23)
A cool dynasty rule I implemented for a startup this year is compensatory picks for players that retire. The pick depends on their finish.
-Doug Veatch (@Harahduh2)
Looks like that time of year when every backup RB on an expiring contract suddenly becomes the next Michael Turner. #TemperYourEnthusiasm
-Eric Hardter (@EDH_27)
Usually this time of year, there are 3 or 4 incoming rookies considered top prospects/1st round locks. This year there are a dozen of those.
Wait until guys blow up at the combine, pre-draft workouts go well, hype builds. There will be 18 guys we can’t wait to get on our teams
-Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23)
Just 6-8 for me. I'm that high on Sammy Watkins. RT @NFL_Dynasty How many current WR would you not trade for 1.01?
-Eric Dickens (@DLFootball)
Developments in SEA O (OL getting healthy too) point to Russell Wilson reclaiming the top 3-5 QB status he had in the 2nd half of 2012.
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
Know this about #Broncos RB rotation: even though fumble was credited to Manning, team is taking CJ Anderson's ball security very seriously
All three young RBs (Montee, Ronnie, CJ) will have to prove they can hold onto the rock this week in practice #Broncos HUGE issue for team
-Cecil Lammey (@cecillammey)
Second Thoughts
It was nice to see Bruce Arians come out and make explicit what we'd been speculating about for weeks. As I said two weeks ago, coaches are smart, and they see a lot more of a player than we do. It seems Bruce Arians has very good reason to keep Andre Ellington's workload limited, or at least he believes he has very good reason to do so. It's also very interesting to hear him discuss ruining Willie Parker's career.
For those who have forgotten, after earning the starting job his sophomore year, Willie Parker logged 255, 337, 321, and 210 carries (in just 11 games). His yards per carry for those four seasons fell every year, from 4.7 to 4.4 to 4.1 to 3.8. The idea that Parker declined because Arians overruled his instincts and overworked Willie seems to make intuitive sense based on the data.
One last interesting note about Willie Parker: He was 5'10" and 209 pounds, good for a BMI of 30.0. By traditional metrics, Parker's body type was pretty much ideal for handling a large workload. And yet, Parker still wasn't built to handle a large workload. Like I keep saying, coaches are smart, they see more than us, and they know more than us. It's easy to say "he's got the perfect body type, he'll handle the work just fine", and it's equally easy to say "he has a terrible body type, there's no way he could handle the load". And yet, guys like Willie Parker with perfect body types break down due to overuse under even a moderate workload, and guys like Warrick Dunn whose body type was essentially just "Tavon Austin" (5'9" 180 pounds for Dunn vs. 5'9" 174 pounds for Austin) still managed to log 10,000 career rushing yards. Now, maybe Bruce Arians is wrong about Andre Ellington, but as of right now, it seems clear that the best course of action is to price him as if there's a good chance he'll never be a 200-carry back.
Of course, just because Ellington is never going to have a huge workload doesn't mean he can't have fantasy value, especially in PPR leagues. I present to you Darren Sproles, Danny Woodhead, Shane Vereen, and Joique Bell.
One of the hardest things to do as fantasy owners is to look at players where everything is seemingly going right, and still pick apart their value anyway. Or to take a player who is trending down in a hurry and still identify him as a player on the rise. It's so easy to heap praise on a player when everything is going his way. It's much harder to do so when nothing is. Nevertheless, doing the former will never win you leagues, while doing the latter just might. Everyone has a tendency to chase last week's points, when they should really be less afraid of going off on their own and going after next week's points.
With that in mind, he's a guy who I've praised a lot this season, but I don't think Le'Veon Bell gets the appreciation he deserves. Cian Fahey wrote an excellent article detailing what Bell is doing well. As I've said often, Bell is the youngest back in the league. His numbers haven't always looked great, but he's played well beyond what his efficiency stats would suggest. Perhaps most importantly, (and relating to the Ellington discussion), his coaches have no qualms about giving him a huge workload. Bell is one of the very few RBs who is involved in all downs, all distances, and also plays a big role in the passing game. Here's a complete list of all RBs with 20 total touches per game, with at least 3 of those touches being receptions: Reggie Bush, Knowshon Moreno, LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, Jamaal Charles... and Le'Veon Bell.
Another guy who is falling off the radar is Tyler Eifert. Many are disappointed in his production to date and beginning to worry about his prospects. The problem is that rookie TEs almost all struggle out the gate, historically. Tyler Eifert is averaging 34.3 receiving yards per game right now. Here are some of the tight ends that finished their rookie season with +/- 2.5 yards per game of that mark: Ozzie Newsome, Kellen Winslow Sr., Rob Gronkowski, Mark Bavaro, Jackie Smith. That's three Hall of Famers, a near Hall of Famer, and the best young tight end in NFL history. I'd say that it's excusable for Eifert to start so slowly, but the truth is, he's not even starting that slowly for a rookie tight end. If any of his owners are panicking and getting unreasonable expectations for him based on Jordan Reed's early success, then make an offer to take Eifert off their hands for them.
Finally, I wanted to wish everyone a happy Thanksgiving and safe travels. If you find yourself stuck in an airport for hours on end at any point, might I suggest trying to make a from-scratch set of player rankings? There are not many better things a dynasty owner can do to really clarify their thoughts about their roster and the rest of the league, and help come up with a plan of action for league-wide domination from there.
Best of luck to everyone in their Week 13 games. I'll see you back here next week with plenty of NFL action to break down and plenty of dynasty implications to discuss!
