Hey guys and gals, welcome to This Week in Dynasty. This is a new feature this year where we're going to discuss relevant developments from around the league with a dynasty slant. Everything is fair game, from high-level strategy to nitty-gritty player evals. If you have an suggestions for topics you'd like to see covered in this space, or if you'd just like to join the conversation, feel free to let me know on Twitter at @AdamHarstad.
The Big Takeaway
Let’s talk about backup running backs. For many owners, backups are synonymous with handcuffs. A lot has been written about the strategy over the years, and I don’t know how much value I have to add to that discussion, so I will simply say this; handcuffing (understood to be taking a less valuable player over a more valuable player simply because he is the NFL backup of one of your starters) is a solid strategy to mitigate a lack of depth somewhere on your roster in the short term, but a bad strategy to mitigate that same lack of depth in the long term. By that, I mean than handcuffing is more likely to give you a short-term fill-in should injury strike sometime this season, but drafting the more valuable player is more likely to give you someone who develops into a long-term answer at the position. With that in mind, it’s clear that there are times when handcuffing is a good strategy. If you’re a strong contender whose only weakness is RB depth, then absolutely grab your handcuffs, even if it represents a small downgrade for you. If you’re a rebuilding squad and you’re handcuffing, though, you’re rebuilding wrong. And that’s all I’m going to say on handcuffing today.
Instead, I want to talk about true, honest-to-goodness NFL backups. Guys you’re drafting, not because they’re backing up one of your starters, but simply because you like them for the long-term. Unless you’re Jonathan Stewart, talented players find that backup status is always a temporary condition in the NFL. Contracts eventually expire, and talented players always find a market for their services, whether they have been starting or not. For the most part, backups don’t carry a “purchase by” date stamped across their forehead. When you roster backups, you do so with no real knowledge of when (or even if) you might see a return on the investment. Really, the only thing to do is get them when you can, then hold them for as long as you can, and then hope for the best.
Put that way, rostering backups can seem like a terrible idea. Indeed, the process of waiting out a backup can easily get frustrating. Fortunately, the rewards for a patient owner often far outstrip the costs. Of the 30 most productive fantasy RBs since 2002, only eleven were a backup for a half season or less during their productive careers (Tomlinson, Portis, Peterson, Jamaal Lewis, Chris Johnson, Edgerrin James, Fred Taylor, Matt Forte, Warrick Dunn, Reggie Bush, and Ronnie Brown). That means nearly 2/3s of the top fantasy RBs over the last decade+ were, at some point in time, available at a huge discount because they were “just a backup”. Here’s that list of “backups”, along with all of their backup seasons during their productive career (i.e. ignoring any stints that came after their last fantasy-relevant season):
- Steven Jackson (1 year in St. Louis behind Marshall Faulk)
- Frank Gore (1 year in San Francisco behind Kevan Barlow)
- Thomas Jones (2 years in Arizona behind Michael Pittman, 1 more year in Tampa Bay, also behind Michael Pittman)
- Maurice Jones-Drew (3 years in Jacksonville behind Fred Taylor)
- Shaun Alexander (1 year in Seattle behind Ricky Watters)
- Brian Westbrook (1.5 years in Philadelphia behind Duce Staley and Correll Buckhalter)
- Willis McGahee (3 years in Baltimore behind Ray Rice)
- Tiki Barber (3 years in New York behind Tyrone Wheatley, Gary Brown, Joe Montgomery, and assorted others)
- Marshawn Lynch (~1 year in Buffalo behind Fred Jackson)
- Michael Turner (4 years in San Diego behind LaDainian Tomlinson)
- Ricky Williams (2 years in Miami behind Ronnie Brown)
- Ray Rice (1 year in Baltimore behind Willis McGahee)
- Larry Johnson (2.5 years in Kansas City behind Priest Holmes)
- Ahman Green (2 years in Seattle behind Ricky Watters)
- DeAngelo Williams (2 years in Carolina behind DeShaun Foster)
- Deuce McAllister (1 year in New Orleans behind Ricky Williams)
- Priest Holmes (3 years in Baltimore, off and on, behind Bam Morris, Eric Rhett, and Jamal Lewis)
- Arian Foster (1 year in Houston behind Steve Slaton and others)
- Rudi Johnson (2.5 years in Cincinnati behind Corey Dillon)
And lest you think I am gerrymandering the cutoffs to make my case look good, it should be noted that 16 of the 20 RBs in the 31-50 range over that span also spent some time as a backup, including notables such as LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, Fred Jackson, and Darren Sproles.
Looking at that list of backups-turned-stars, we can easily note a few commonalities. For starters, 12 of the 19 players were playing behind another RB who was a star in his own right, in a situation where no matter what one of those top RBs would have to be the backup. 12 of the 19 were first or second round draft picks, presumably taken with the intention of becoming the starter eventually. 14 of the 19 broke out in their first crack at the starting job, while 5 of the 19 earned the starting job at some point and then later returned to a backup role (Thomas Jones, Willis McGahee, Marshawn Lynch, Ricky Williams, Priest Holmes). 13 of the 19 backups eventually saw fantasy value for the same franchise, while six (Holmes, Green, Turner, Lynch, McGahee, and Thomas Jones) required a change of scenery before achieving fantasy value (Jones had to change scenery twice). 7 of the 19 were a backup for a year or less, 11 of the 19 spent two or fewer years as a backup, 18 of the 19 spent three or fewer seasons holding a clipboard, and just one back (Michael Turner) took four seasons before achieving fantasy value. On average, an owner would have had to hold those 19 backs for 2 seasons before receiving a return on the investment.
Perhaps most importantly (and most surprisingly), 14 of the 19 backs listed above earned the starting job during the offseason, while just 4 earned it during midseason (Brian Westbrook, Larry Johnson, Rudi Johnson, and Marshawn Lynch, via the incredibly rare midseason trade). Those last two numbers don’t add up to 19 because Ricky Williams, ever the exception, never actually earned the starting job again; instead, he put up a top-10 season in 2009 as a true backup and injury fill-in. That’s the main difference between drafting backups and drafting handcuffs. With handcuffs, you want to roster them early in the season to protect against the risk of an in-season injury. With backups, you want to roster them late in the season and hope for a favorable landing spot during the offseason shakeup. If you missed out on the backup sweepstakes earlier, fret not, because we’re just now entering the most fertile and productive time of the season for rostering backup RBs.
Looking at the profile above, it seems we have a good idea of what kind of backups we should be targeting. We ideally want someone who is young and highly drafted. We’d prefer situations where the starter is talented and productive in his own right, and ideally where that starter is a veteran nearing the end of his contract. We’re not totally opposed to retreads, but should typically prefer unknowns. The less time the player has spent as a backup, the better. With those general rules in mind, what NFL backups stand out as good investments? Here are my picks for the best of the bunch:
Tier 1:
Giovani Bernard - File this one under “Duh, genius” for the most obvious pick of the bunch. Bernard is technically a backup because he has yet to receive a start, but he’s already a top-10 fantasy back, performing well ahead of Cincinnati’s nominal starter. He’s 22, was the first RB selected in last year’s draft, and has earned a deserved place in the conversation for the top 5 backs in dynasty today.
Tier 2:
Montee Ball - he checks pretty much every box on the list. He’s young (22), highly drafted (2nd round), stuck behind a productive veteran (26-year-old Knowshon Moreno, a top-10 fantasy back) who is in the last year of his contract. There are questions about his talent level, but he perfectly fits the profile of a backup primed for a breakout.
Ben Tate - He’s older (25) and the guy in front of him has a long time left on his contract (signed through 2016), but Ben Tate is otherwise a great match. He’s a former 2nd round draft pick playing behind an entrenched All Pro, and while he’s probably reliant on a change of scenery to secure any fantasy value, his contract expires this season, which means that change is just around the corner. As an added bonus, Ben Tate has a strong history of production, averaging 4.9 yards per carry for his career. That’s not been a pre-requisite for a breakout, (Tiki Barber, for instance, averaged just 3.7 yards per carry with 9 fumbles in his first three seasons), but it certainly doesn’t hurt.
Shane Vereen (PPR) - A 24-year old former 2nd round pick, Vereen has the age and pedigree that we’re looking for. Unfortunately, he shares the backfield with another talented young back in Stevan Ridley, which is a problem… in standard leagues. In PPR leagues, it’s more like Ridley is the starting “running back” and Vereen is the starting “receiving back”, and several recent players (most notably, Darren Sproles and Danny Woodhead) have demonstrated that “receiving backs” can be every bit as valuable as “running backs”. In that respect, Vereen is also a backup in name only, and a clear buy in dynasty leagues… provided you can pry him away from his current owner.
Tier 3:
Joique Bell (PPR) - It’s hard to think of a player who is a worse fit for the profile. He’s old (27), has terrible pedigree (undrafted free agent out of Wayne State), has bounced around the league (6 teams in 3 years), and is stuck behind an established starter with a long-term contract (Bush is signed through 2016). So what’s he doing on this list? Quite simply, his production has been too much to ignore. He finished 2012 as the #23 fantasy RB in PPR leagues despite never receiving a single start. So far in 2013 he ranks 16th. He is a phenomenal receiver, which makes him incredibly valuable in the PPR format. Best of all, Bell is a free agent after this season. It’s not hard to imagine Joique Bell becoming the Danny Woodhead of the 2014 season. The profile is a guideline, it is not destiny. Remember, Priest Holmes, Thomas Jones, and Tiki Barber were also terrible fits for the profile.
Andre Ellington (PPR) - Ellington isn’t as bad of a fit for the profile as Joique Bell, but he’s valuable for many of the same reasons. He’s young (24), and he’s playing behind a starter on the shortest of contracts (Mendenhall is only signed through 2013). Ellington has poor pedigree (6th round selection), but his production to date has been eye-popping enough to gloss over that fact (6.3 yards per carry). That efficiency is insane and will regress over a larger sample size, and his coaching staff has openly spoken about limiting Ellington’s workload, but as I mentioned, in today’s NFL even Danny Woodhead can be a top-12 fantasy back. Ellington could easily settle into a situation where he averages 4 receptions a game and pitches in a bit of yardage on the ground en route to a strong fantasy finish in PPR leagues.
Christine Michael - Michael has the youth (just turned 23) and the pedigree (2nd round pick) that we’re looking for, but he lacks the clear path to playing time with Marshawn Lynch signed through 2015. He’s still a clear buy-and-hold in hopes that he can turn into the next Michael Turner, but he should be approached with the understanding that we’re looking at a longer timeline, which decreases his appeal in shallower leagues.
Marcus Lattimore - He’s young (just turned 22), and while he doesn’t have the pedigree (4th round pick), odds are good that he would have been selected in the 2nd round had he been healthy entering the draft. Most importantly, the player ahead of him ticks every box, as Frank Gore is old (30), productive (working on his third straight top-12 season), and nearing the end of his contract (signed through 2014).
Tier 4:
Bernard Pierce and Bryce Brown - I lump these two together because they’re so similar. Honestly, they’re not great fits for the profile. Neither was highly drafted (Pierce was a late 3rd-rounder, Brown was a 7th-round selection). Both play behind established starters with long contracts (Rice is signed through 2016, McCoy through 2017). These two were high on the list of must-own backups this past offseason based on phenomenal production during 2012, but both have struggled on the field in 2013. They have talent and are worth rostering, but it is best to do so with the understanding that it will take a long time before they yield any rewards. This leaves them a cut below all of the other names on this list, and in fact, their best value right now might be as true handcuffs.
Knile Davis - He doesn’t get included with Brown and Pierce, but honestly, based on his profile, he probably deserves to be. He’s a clear backup in a situation every bit as favorable as the other two. He doesn’t have any on-field production yet, but he was drafted in the 3rd round of the NFL draft. Again, based on the profile, he’s more of a true handcuff than a talented backup we can expect to earn his own starting job at some point, but I felt he deserved to be mentioned given how undervalued he often is, even in deeper leagues.
Toby Gerhart - Based strictly on profile, he deserves to rank higher. He’s a former 2nd round draft pick in the last year of his contract who has been stuck behind a Hall of Fame talent at RB. A few things make me skittish about Gerhart. One, he’s already getting long in the tooth himself, at 26. Two, Minnesota uses him a lot less than you’d expect, even with Adrian Peterson on the team. Compare Gerhart, for example, to his best case scenario- Michael Turner. Like Gerhart, Turner spent four years stuck behind a first-ballot Hall of Famer, only to hit free agency late in his career. However, Turner got much more usage in San Diego. Discounting his rookie year, Michael Turner had 208 carries for 1153 yards and 6 TDs in San Diego. Pro-rate his numbers this year over a full season, and over his last three years Gerhart is on pace for 177 carries for 852 yards and 4 TDs. And that’s with Gerhart playing 3 more games (48 vs. 45) and 5 more starts (5 vs. 0). So far this season, Minnesota is giving Gerhart just 1.1 rushing attempt per game. Contrast that with Ben Tate, who averaged 6 attempts per game last year and has at least 7 rushing attempts in every game in 2013. It’s possible that I’m underrating him, but the fact that Minnesota simply isn’t using him suggests to me that Gerhart might simply not be that good… which is why he finds himself in tier 4. On the other hand, I have been known to be wrong before, and as an impending free agent, Gerhart is very much worth a flier.
If history is any indication, with the full benefit of hindsight we will look back in the coming years and say that several of the RBs on this list were clearly among the 20 most valuable dynasty RBs in the league today. Despite that, you will rarely see true backups appearing anywhere near there in forward-looking dynasty rankings, as many owners are very conservative about preferring a backup over a less-talented back with a clear starting opportunity. Anyone who has seen my rankings knows how I feel about that, as I am the highest staff member on 6 of the 8 RBs in the 2nd and 3rd tier above (only Chad Parsons is higher than I am on Christine Michael and Marcus Lattimore). I have a bit of a reputation as “the injury guy” on the staff, but really, it would be more accurate to say I’m the “players not currently producing” guy. I think that true backups are undervalued for the exact same reason that injured players are undervalued; if they’re not producing points right this very second, people tend to forget about them. Hopefully the list above of just how many fantasy studs have been NFL backups can convince you to start acquiring some currently unproductive players, too. The cost is tiny, and the potential rewards are huge.
Heard Around the Water Cooler
The Eye Test
Jarrett Boykin was the Packers' best player in Week 10, per @BobMcGinn. Thought the same when I watched Game Rewind
-Chris Wesseling (@ChrisWesseling)
The moon RT @Raynall21 what is Hunter's ceiling?
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Donald Brown finally looks like the back we thought he could become when the #Colts took him in first round. Very similar to Ryan Mathews
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
Wright is Welker with a greater wingspan IMO.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
I'd be way more boisterous about Trent Richardson never being good if Mark Ingram didn't look so good the other night. Weightloss may be key
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
’13 Trent Richardson reminds of '12 Ryan Mathews. Lacks confidence/instincts. Often "runs dumb." Not trusted by team in critical situations.
-Evan Silva (@evansilva)
In a matchup of huge weaknesses, Bears rush D looking far worse than Ravens rush O.
-Gregg Rosenthal (@greggrosenthal)
It's unlikely, but Antonio Brown should probably be an all-pro this year.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Santonio Holmes looks as sharp as ever adjusting to ball wind hung up against grabby coverage by Gilmore. Great wk 12 WW pickup if healthy
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
Bucs proving why runningbacks are a commodity that is on the decline. Bobby Rainey looking like a 1st round pick.
-Joe Bussell (@NFLosophy)
Add James Harrison to the list of players who have made better runs this year than Trent Richardson.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
(I’ve seen the list. It’s pretty long.)
Vincent Jackson just made an unbelievable one-handed catch vs Asante Samuel for 47 yards. Ronde Barber: "Oh my goodness, son."
-Evan Silva (@evansilva)
Let your Case Keenum flag fly!
-Chris Wesseling (@ChrisWesseling)
Keenum looks more and more like a young Romo every week
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Case Keenum is the anti-Schaub. Gets out of trouble and takes chances. Great TD.
-Scott Kacsmar (@FO_ScottKacsmar)
(this was written about a quarter before Gary Kubiak opted to reinsert the anti-anti-Schaub)
Given Doug Martin's struggles this year, it's surprising how well TB's been running it the last few weeks w/backups.
-Scott Kacsmar (@FO_ScottKacsmar)
Sanu Redzone nightmare. Can't cover that guy.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
LeVeon so good. Weekly reminder that I hate that pick still, but love him as a player. Great talent.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
#StoryOfHisCareer RT @Justin_Rogers: I understand Stafford is putting up monster numbers, but he's getting way with some awful, awful throws
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Beautiful throw from Mike Glennon. That arm makes folks drool. Understandably.
-Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman)
Smith with a pass nowhere near Stephen Hill, which was great to see, as it proves that Hill is actually still alive. #Whew
-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)
If this is really Matt McGloin's audition, he's nailing his lines. Going to be a fascinating week in Oakland.
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
Terrell Pryor might want to get used to the bench. Matt McGloin has as many TD tosses in 2 1/2 quarters as Pryor's had in his past 5 starts
-Jody Smith (@JodySmith_NFL)
Recurring 2013 theme: Geno Smith looks like potential franchise QB in clean pockets. Looks like a bust under slightest hint of pressure.
-Evan Silva (@evansilva)
He's never going to be that top-tier WR like Calvin/Green/Dez/Julio, but Antonio Brown is definitely a No. 1. Mike Wallace's not missed.
-Scott Kacsmar (@FO_ScottKacsmar)
Bobby Rainey to the second level yet again. Stat check-in: 22-137-2 on ground, 2-4-1 as receiver. 0-for-1 as southpaw passer.
-Evan Silva (@evansilva)
What a terrific development it is for the #Bills to see Manuel flourish in this windy weather. Great sign for his fit in Buffalo.
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
Another Torrey Smith GL TD? Yes, please. More well-rounded by the week.
-Chad Parsons (@ChadParsonsNFL)
Ladarius Green with yet another big play this week. Window is closing to stash him for next year....
-Chad Parsons (@ChadParsonsNFL)
If not for Brees' ability to maneuver in the pocket, we'd be discussing how very bad the OL for New Orleans is.
-Joe Bussell (@NFLosophy)
Percy's back.
-Evan Silva (@evansilva)
Percy Harvin is kinda good.
-Joe Bussell (@NFLosophy)
Oh boy are you lucky/good if you were able to stash Harvin away...
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
I love that people still say Harvin isn't that good and just call him a slot receiver. Y'all are insane.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
(certifiably so, imo)
Rice is a mudder.
-Jason Lisk (@JasonLisk)
I think I say this every week, but this class of rookie RBs has been so much better than I expected it to be
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Ryan Tannehill is coming up huge late in this game against the Chargers. Spot on throws as they milk the clock late.
-Chad Parsons (@ChadParsonsNFL)
Oh man Christine Michael is siiiick.
-Evan Silva (@EvanSilva)
Probably feels like rocks in his knees RT @FantasyDouche: Colston runs like he has a rock in his shoe.
-Chad Parsons (@ChadParsonsNFL)
Earlier today I said I felt like Charles Clay “was gonna sneak in a TD”. Boy was I wrong. Absolutely nothing sneaky about that TD. Wow.
-Paymon Shokoohi (@SetMyRoster)
To those who haven't seen much Denver this year: Demaryius is 88, Julius is 80. Only way to tell them apart.
-Adam Harstad (@AdamHarstad)
The #Chiefs have no answer for Julius Thomas, nobody does really
-Cecil Lammey (@cecillammey)
I believe 9 of Julius' 10 TDs have come on passes caught outside of the end zone and run in for the score. Big load to bring down.
-Adam Harstad (@AdamHarstad)
That's two straight weeks Montee Ball has looked impressive in small doses. The rich get richer.
-Chris Wesseling (@ChrisWesseling)
Nice bounceback by my guy Foles yesterday. Fair to say wind was, in fact, a legit issue in Green Bay last week.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
No concerns about Percy Harvin explosiveness post-hip injury. Highlight-reel 17-yard catch & jets showed on 58-yd kick return. Game breaker.
-Evan Silva (@evansilva)
Watched 3 Melvin Gordon games on Sat. Had seen Jamaal Charles comps before & think they are spot on. Similar run style, movement, explosion.
-Evan Silva (@evansilva)
Still puzzled about the Keenum benching. Watched replay last night. Don't see the reason for it.
-Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman)
Can't wait to get the end zone angle of the Bucs game to show how tiny these holes were that Rainey fit through. Incredible vision.
-Joe Bussell (@NFLosophy)
Rex on Stephen Hill's disappointing season: "We've been expecting bigger things for Stephen. Quite honestly, it hasn't happened."
-Manish Mehta (@MMehtaNYDN)
Been brilliant all year RT “@LRiddickESPN Le'Veon's feet were fantastic...and how he was able to avoid negative yd runs.”
That's where LeVeon and Stacy are so similar to me. No negative runs. Smart runners.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Dobson has been the Patriots best receiver over the last few games. He's really coming along well.
-Joe Bussell (@NFLosophy)
Steve Smith has to be one of the best under 6-foot deep threats ever. Always amazed when Delhomme would throw it up and he'd make the play.
-Scott Kacsmar (@FO_ScottKacsmar)
Dobson just looks so unnatural when it comes time to play the ball sometimes. He could become excellent if he irons that out
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
Just the four guys on Gronk...he's in there somewhere: pic.twitter.com/s5kPaCGMNM
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
If they remake Revenge of the Nerds, Gronk has to play Ogre. NERDS!
-Scott Kacsmar (@FO_ScottKacsmar)
The emergence of Cam Newton? Come on, Tirico. The guy had the best rookie QB season in NFL history.
-Chris Wesseling (@ChrisWesseling)
Auburn's coaches called Cam - "The Dinosaur!" Asked why.. They said "Because he's the only one of his kind left". #truth #CamIAm
-George Whitfield Jr. (@georgewhitfield)
Footwork RT @greggrosenthal: Cam mixes in about 4-5 errant uncontested throws like that a week. Has hit his number now.
-Chris Wesseling (@ChrisWesseling)
Said it at the start of the year, Ted Ginn found his natural home in this offense.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Been thoroughly underwhelmed by Ace Sanders as a rookie. Think he's been the Jags worst WR.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
The Numbers Game
Drew Brees has a 148.3 QB Rating when targeting Kenny Stills, the best mark for any WR in the NFL this season.
-Pete Damilatis (@PFF_Pete)
Alshon Jeffery has seen 12 end zone targets this season. Only Calvin/Green have more
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
The touchdown production is way down, but did you know Alfred Morris is averaging over 90 yards rushing per game and 5.2 YPC?
-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)
Riley Cooper in games started by Foles: 4.5-112-1.5. In games started by Vick: 1.7-17-0.17
-Heath Cummings (@heathcummingssr)
Through four weeks in 2012, CJ?k had 265 total yards, 3.2 ypc, 0 TDs. Top 10 the rest of the way, with 1200 yards, 10 scores, and 4.8 ypc.
Through four weeks in 2013, CJ?k had 290 total yards, 3.3 ypc, 0 TDs. On pace for 1150 yards, 12 scores, and 4.3 ypc the rest of the way.
-Adam Harstad (@AdamHarstad)
Best nugget from @evansilva's column this week. 8.2% of Andre's career TDs have come in Keenum's last 2 starts
-RyFo (@RyFo18)
Ryan Tannehill is @PFF #7 rated QB this year. Seems to struggle in the spotlight, but he hasn't been bad.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
8+ targets in 5 straight and 6 of last 7 games for TY Hilton.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Peyton Manning has 33 TD passes in 9 games. The Chiefs have 30 TD passes since 2011 (41 games).
-Scott Kacsmar (@FO_ScottKacsmar)
Still wonder if Chip Kelly's offense works? Foles and Marcus Mariota have combined for 38 TDs and 0 INTs this season.
-Chris Wesseling (@ChrisWesseling)
Raw math: Eagles have faced Nickel on a called run play 230 times this year. 49ers have 20 times. #NotATypo #ChipKellyIsSmarterThanYou
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
#Texans Ben Tate leads #NFL in yards after contact per rush 2.35, ADP 2.21, Alf 2.21, FJax 2.12, Lynch 2.04, Lacy 2.01 league avg is 1.6
-Cecil Lammey (@cecillammey)
Would probably surprise you to know that the Eagles target the tight end 22% of the time, which is 12th highest in the NFL.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Drew Brees has targeted his wide receivers on an NFL-low 37% of his throws this season. Wow.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
If Nick Foles's next 31 passes were all picks, he'd have a 68.7 passer rating. Eli's actual right now: 68.5. #NYG #eagles #fantasyfootball
-Michael Salfino (@MichaelSalfino)
Mendenhall hasn't played more snaps than Ellington in a game since Week 4.
-Chris Wesseling (@ChrisWesseling)
In three games Rob Gronkowski has more than twice as many targets (32) as the rest of the Patriots TEs used this season combined (15)
-Pro Football Focus (@PFF)
Larry Fitzgerald and Nuk Hopkins battling for best drop rate among WRs. Neither has dropped a pass yet, Fitz on 67 targets.
-Pro Football Focus (@PFF)
Cowboys WR Terrance Williams on pace for 885 yards and 9 TDs, higher totals than any rookie produced last season.
-Chris Wesseling (@ChrisWesseling)
Teams that have allowed 3+ touchdowns to Matt McGloin: Northwestern, Eastern Michigan, Navy, Indiana, the Houston Texans.
-Sir Broosk (@celebrityhottub)
Nick Foles is averaging roughly 13 yards per pass attempt since his Week 7 concussion.
-Chris Wesseling (@ChrisWesseling)
Geno Smith is now averaging 3.93 ANY/A, the worst of any current starting QB.
-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)
In three games since Marvin Jones' 8 catch, 122 yard, 4-touchdown outburst, he has TOTALED six catches for 77 yards with no TDs.
-Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan)
Wow - did you know the Bears are 3rd in points scored? #Trestman
-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)
Alex Smith - 107 net yards on 29 passes (3.7 net yards per attempt). Jamaal Charles 63 yards on 13 carries (4.8 YPC). Note the 29/13 ratio.
-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)
Amazingly, Stephen Hill led the Jets WRs in snaps (53 of 59) and routes (31 of 35) yesterday. 0 rec on 5 targ
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Love Ladarius Green in dynasty, but note that he only played 20 snaps yesterday. SD still '11' passing O most of Sunday.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Optimism for Rishard Matthews PPR owners. Ran 41 routes yesterday. Hartline/Wallace ran 42.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Named the Jaguars #2 RB just weeks ago, Denard Robinson played zero snaps yesterday.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Trent Richardson's carries by game with the Colts (starting with Week 3): 13 - 20 - 18 - 10 - 14 - 8 - 5 - 8
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Glennon threw 3 incomplete pass yesterday. The last incompletion came with 2:49 in the 1st quarter.
Of Glennon's 3 incompletions, 1 was a definite throwaway. Can make the case that his 2nd incompletion was a throw away too. 20-23 on the day
-Joe Bussell (@NFLosophy)
Alshon Jeffery has a carry in 5 straight games and all but 3 games this year. 12 total.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Percy Harvin played exactly 20 snaps in his Seahawks debut. 12 routes, 8 run blocks.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
(Plus two snaps on special teams)
Joe Flacco's accuracy percentage on deep balls is 22.6%, worst in the league
-Steve Palazzolo (@StevePalazzolo)
Only 11 WRs have more TDs over the whole season than Rueben Randle has in his last 6 games.
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
With that run Cam became 1st player in NFL history with 10,000 pass yds and 1,750 rush yds in his first four seasons. It's year 2.5 for Cam
-Collin Hoggard (@ColinWFNZ)
Patriots WR Aaron Dobson took a lot of heat early this year, but he's on pace for 60+ catches, 850+ yards and 7 TD. Great rookie season!
-Scott Bischoff (@Bischoff_Scott)
Patriots depth chart is always changing. Yesterday, Edelman paced WRs with 58 snaps. Dobson (53) and Amendola (50) just behind.
-Mike Clay (MikeClayNFL)
Also of Interest
Carolina being competitive is really impressive when you think about the money they lit on fire by overpaying running backs.
-Fantasy Douche (@FantasyDouche)
Trent Richardson faces tough matchup tonight vs. line of scrimmage.
-The Fake ESPN (@TheFakeESPN)
Dexter McCluster has turned his career trajectory around from "truly terrible" to "merely underwhelming"
-Fantasy Douche (@FantasyDouche)
Colts say they would trade for TRich again. Related: Pats have signed Michael Turner and are offering him to the Colts for a 1st round pick.
-Fantasy Douche (@FantasyDouche)
A yr ago dynasty owners were quick to put Kap/Wilson into their top 10 QBs after late season performances. Why not doing the same for Foles?
-Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23)
Everything that happens once, can never happen again. But everything that happens twice will surely happen a third time.
-Joe Bussell (@NFLosophy)
Darren McFadden will not play Sunday. The Rashad Jennings Era has arrived, with Latavius Murray on deck for next season.
-Steve Corkran (@CorkOnTheNFL)
It's not easy explaining advanced football strategy in 140 characters.
-Brian Burke (@Adv_NFL_Stats)
(You can get 280 characters if you send two tweets…)
Before meeting Bill O'Brien, the odds that Matt McGloin would start at QB in the NFL one day were 1324234:1. Walk-on at PSU. Crazy.
-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)
While Terrelle Pryor has definitely improved, hasn’t convinced coaching staff he is #Raiders QB of the future. They’re leaning other way
-Vic Tafur (@VicTafur)
...and sadly the trade deadline is in about 30 minutes in nearly every single one of the fantasy leagues. #SadDayInMudville
-Chad Parsons (@ChadParsonsNFL)
Loved the last wave of trades with most of my leagues' deadlines today at 1:00.
-Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23)
(Feel free to insert obligatory “End the deadline!” comment here.)
Ray Rice runs for a touchdown. This really happened, I swear.
-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)
What we're seeing w/ TB happens a lot after an injury. The vet gets the early touches but the young guy gets a shot after a week of practice
-Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23)
You have to think the emergence of Rainey and James hurts Martin. Because the Dynasty RB pool wasn't weak enough already.
-Adam Harstad (@AdamHarstad)
Even if you did not like them for the stretch run, Bobby Rainey and Marquise Goodwin showing why you stash guys with open opportunity.
-Chad Parsons (@ChadParsonsNFL)
I think 193 yards a score today officially ends the window to get Michael Floyd for any discount in dynasty formats.
-Chad Parsons (@ChadParsonsNFL)
Ray Rice owners- just remember this Bears D made a semi-retired Brandon Jacobs look like Earl Campbell earlier this season.
-Dennis M. Esser (@coachesser)
Really think #Bills need to work Marquise Goodwin into starting lineup permanently, even if comes at expense of some snaps for Robert Woods.
-Evan Silva (@evansilva)
It's really crazy that the Chargers haven't gotten Ladarius Green on the field more this year.
At what point should coaches be held responsible for not playing players that can help them put points on the board?
-Fantasy Douche (@FantasyDouche)
Champ Bailey is inactive tonight...oh well, guess Dwayne Bowe will have a chat with someone else while he pretends to run his routes.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
We chuckled at AJ Jenkins for Jon Baldwin trade, but we see more every week how much missing on those picks is hurting KC/SF pass Os
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
there's a concern he's maxed out already RT @brian_schnee Or just make Moreno your 1 and only. AP style? #Broncos
-Cecil Lammey (@cecillammey)
Almost forgot the Chiefs had Jamaal Charles in the backfield. So did Andy Reid apparently.
-Joe Bussell (@NFLosophy)
Only 2x before tonight has a team punted in a similar situation to KC there: the QBs were Matt Barkley and EJ Manuel. #ReferendumonAlexSmith
-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)
Vincent Brown and Eddie Royal are basically sharing the #2 WR job for Chargers now. Royal is ahead. Disappointed with VB. Chance to bust out
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
@smartfootball feels like foles has a mind meld w kelly on how to navigate decision tree on any given playcall/defense combination
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
@SigmundBloom Foles came up in systems where it's about making quick, decisive decisions and getting ball out. Never been Vick's strength
-Chris Brown (@smartfootball)
Here's to hoping the Vikings continue starting and targeting Patterson 9 times going forward.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
DeAndre Hopkins benched by Texans on Sunday for mental mistakes
-NFL Access (@NFL_Access)
(Case Keenum benched by Texans on Sunday for…)
If you've gone from RGIII is an elite QB to Washington shouldn't have drafted him this quickly I worry about how you analyse the game.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Schwartz explained Reggie Bush's lack of playing time Sunday in part by saying Bush is not a "mudder."
-Gregg Rosenthal (@greggrosenthal)
I love it when coaches use their big athletic QB I'm short yardage. Not sure why it's not more common.
-Joe Bussell (@NFLosophy)
And for the most part, I just want people to think for themselves instead of going to a site to simply affirm their own beliefs.
If it disagrees with your opinion, consider maybe you're the one that's wrong and think again. It's the best way to learn.
-Joe Bussell (@NFLosophy)
Da'Rick Rogers may do nothing the rest of 2013, but he's a savvy bench stash in deep leagues. Void at #2WR in Indy, esp w/Whalen waived
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Random guy I've been throwing on the end of my benches: Knile Davis. Picture overworked Jamaal Charles injured. Now picture Davis' FF value.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Shane Vereen
I'm sorry but when did Shane Vereen become such a big deal? He had 106 career touches in 19 games coming into tonight.
-Scott Kacsmar (@FO_ScottKacsmar)
@FO_ScottKacsmar Losing Hernandez opened up the need for a swiss army knife player. That's Vereen. I think he'll be a huge part of O.
-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)
Vereen is so hard to cover on that wheel route. Wow.
-Joe Bussell (@NFLosophy)
Biggest take away from tonight: Shane Vereen is a high-end PPR RB2. Sproles-esque.
-Davis Mattek (@DavisMattek)
Shane Vereen led the Patriots running backs with 34 snaps last night. 33 of those snaps were pass plays!
Shane Vereen has 20 targets over 2 games this season. 10 in Week 1 and 11.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Shane Vereen has more targets than Frank Gore, Eddie Lacy, Zac Stacy and Darren McFadden this season.
-Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23)
Random Twitter Rant:
I've said before that I think the idea that some RBs are inherently good and some aren't sort of ignores situation, scheme and development
And then what happens when an RB that was universally regarded as not good suddenly starts producing fantasy points (Moreno)
Or an RB that was universally regarded as good suddenly stops producing fantasy points (Ray Rice)
This is somewhat related to my point about QBs that their results are dependent on receivers and yet almost all analysis ignores that point.
Like what would have happened to Matt Ryan if the *start* of his career had been sans Roddy White?
Or what if Cam Newton's first OC had been Shula?
And so after some piece of evidence presents itself people go "Oh yeah... Roddy White is pretty important." but before that, we ignore it.
But back to TRich, I don't think the range of RB ability is really that wide, so scheme and opportunity can be some of biggest factors.
Before you say "Yeah, but Donald Brown!" - guess what. he's another illustration of the exact same point. was 100% universally given up on
-Fantasy Douche (@FantasyDouche)
Second Thoughts
Even more than his big game this last week, Ray Rice owners have to be enjoying the resurgance of Chris Johnson again this year. Left for dead once again a few weeks ago, Johnson has demonstrated that even an aging RB who is a shell of his former self can put up some pretty fantastic fantasy numbers if you give him enough volume. Rice doesn't look like the same player he was two years ago, but even this new, less effective version of Rice can be a valuable fantasy back going forward, especially if Baltimore ever gets its running game in order.
Seattle heads into its bye, so it'll be another two weeks before we see the fully unleashed version of Percy Harvin, but the early returns were positive. Harvin showed off his trademark acceleration and top-end speed, made a few explosive plays, and most importantly, didn't aggravate any injury. With two more weeks to digest the playbook and get worked into the game plan, I expect Percy Harvin to hit the ground running next week- something that will surprise a lot of people who assumed there was no way we'd see him until the 2014 season, at the earliest.
Interestingly, with just one kickoff return for 58 yards, Harvin now leads the league in kickoff return average again. That would mark the third consecutive season he did so, should he be able to continue it once he's seen more than one kickoff return. Should Harvin falter, the kickoff return crown will probably go to Cordarrelle Patterson, which would mark the third consecutive season a Vikings receiver has led the league in the statistic. Harvin is already just the second player to lead in back-to-back seasons since the merger (Michael Bates, 1996-1997). Chicago is the only team to lead the league in 3 out of 4 seasons (Ron Smith, Carl Garrett, and Walter Peyton, from 1972-1975). The only player to lead the league three times in his entire career was Abe Woodson for San Francisco back in the late '50s and early '60s, back when the NFL was a 12-14 team league. It should be an exciting race over the season's final 6 weeks, with kickoff return history at stake. We could be witnessing the birth of the greatest kickoff return rivalry since Woodson and Bobby Jancik. And yes, I know that in all likelihood, nobody cares except for me.
Just a reminder that, if you're not making the playoffs this year, it's time to start ignoring current production entirely and making some aggressive moves at the end of your roster. There's no reason at all for a team that will miss the playoffs to be carrying Tony Gonzalez right now. I don't care if you're already past your trade deadline (side note: end trade deadlines), if your only option is to cut him, then cut him. Similarly, there's no reason to be rostering a Josh McCown or Jason Campbell, and you can probably find better long-term options on the wire than a Rashad Jennings or Brian Leonard. Remember, every point a player scores this year isn't just pointless, it's actually counterproductive, moving you ever further from that #1 overall rookie pick. In order to continue rostering someone who is scoring points right now, he has to provide a pretty compelling reason in the form of value starting in 2014.
Best of luck to everyone in their Week 12 games. I'll see you back here next week with plenty of NFL action to break down and plenty of dynasty implications to discuss!
