Hey guys and gals, welcome to This Week in Dynasty. This is a new feature this year where we're going to discuss relevant developments from around the league with a dynasty slant. Everything is fair game, from high-level strategy to nitty-gritty player evals. If you have an suggestions for topics you'd like to see covered in this space, or if you'd just like to join the conversation, feel free to let me know on Twitter at @AdamHarstad.
The Big Takeaway
Let’s talk trade.
The NFL’s trade deadline expired this past Tuesday as it usually does- with a whimper- marking the official end to the “let’s pretend” season. Now that trades are no longer an option, teams are who they are; their only chance to improve going forward is by adding street free agents, players who none of the other 31 franchises want enough to include on their 53-man roster. In truth, teams are who they are long before the trade deadline officially expires, as the structure of the NFL is simply not conducive to trades. Between the salary cap and the way the league accounts for guaranteed money that has already been paid, most potential blockbuster trades are financially impossible. Even when the financials work, the simple fact is that it takes a long time for a player to learn a specific scheme and find his fit in a new location. Because of that, nearly every player in the league is more valuable to his current franchise (whose system he already knows) than to any potential suitors (for whom he would be limited while he got up to speed). Luckily, fantasy football is a different beast entirely. The majority of leagues do not have salary caps or contracts serving as barriers to player movement. Further, there’s never a new scheme to learn, which means players score the same number of points for one owner that they would for another. As a result, trading in fantasy football is easy and effective.
There are two main reasons why fantasy owners would want to engage each other in a trade. The first reason is that those owners disagree about the true value of the pieces involved in the trade. If Owner A owns Larry Fitzgerald and thinks he’s an overrated fraud, while Owner B believes Fitzgerald is a superstar going through a rough patch but poised to return to greatness, then it makes perfect sense for the two owners to discuss a potential trade. Ultimately, trades stemming from a disagreement over value always have a winner and a loser. Either Fitzgerald will continue to struggle and Team A was right to move him, or Larry Fitzgerald will turn it around, and Team B was right to acquire him. In essence, these trades are wagers, with each side betting they know the situation better than the other.
The second reason for two owners to trade is not because they disagree over the value of the players involved, but because those players have different values to each franchise. Hakeem Nicks is more valuable to a franchise starting Lance Moore, Kris Durham, and Austin Pettis than he is to a franchise starting Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, and Justin Blacmon. Similarly, everyone can agree that Tony Gonzalez is a first-ballot Hall of Famer, but his value to a rebuilding squad will be radically different than his value to a contender. Two owners can work together to find trades that exploit these differences so that they both gain value. Unlike the first type of trade, which is inherently win/lose, the second type of trade is inherently win/win, and can very easily leave both teams better positioned to achieve their respective goals.
Essentially, all trades are driven by one or both of those motivations, and neither is inherently “better” or “more pure” than the other. In fantasy football, people are going to disagree over player values, and trades are an important mechanism for delivering players to the people who value them the most. Likewise, people are going to have specific needs that sometimes differ from those of the rest of the league, and trades are perhaps the best way to get those needs met. An open marketplace for players filled with active buyers and sellers is the best way for a league to determine value and worth. Whether a trade has a winner and a loser, or two winners, or, (more rarely), two losers, each trade is a chance for owners to demonstrate skill and to assemble a roster that more closely resembles their ideal.
If trades are such a good thing, then, why do most dynasty leagues follow the NFL’s lead and institute a trading deadline? One reason, undoubtedly, is simply following the NFL’s lead, even though the situations are very different. Mostly, though, it seems that trade deadlines are designed to prevent teams that are “contenders” from dealing with teams that are “eliminated”. Most leagues place their deadlines based on how likely teams are to be eliminated at that point. Some leagues simply outlaw trading once the fantasy playoffs start. Other leagues place the deadline several weeks in advance. I have even seen leagues that allow trading year-round, but do not allow teams that have been mathematically eliminated to trade with teams that have not. The reasoning I’ve often been given behind these deadlines is that leagues don’t want teams making a run to “take advantage of” teams going nowhere.
This reasoning falls apart quickly when you consider the two types of trades. Remember, win/win trades can only occur when two teams have different needs. If one team needs immediate help to make a run, and the other team needs long-term help because they’re eliminated, this seems like the perfect time to engage in trades that help them both achieve their respective goals. Moreover, dynasty leagues are explicitly set up to give bad teams a hand in getting better. Why do the worst teams get the best picks every year, while the best teams get the worst? Because it creates a mechanism that pushes every team towards the middle and gives every team a chance. Why are we giving bad teams an avenue to improve in the draft while denying them a similar avenue to improve by trading their aging stars for future value once they’ve been eliminated? At the same time, trading future assets for aging stars will just provide one more mechanism pushing successful teams back towards the middle, as the future assets they gave up will soon be more valuable than the expiring assets they acquired. Eliminating the trade deadline accomplishes much the same purpose as awarding draft picks in reverse order of finish, which is standard practice in dynasty leagues.
Trade deadlines do offer a bit of protection against malfeasance. If an owner has decided that this is his last year in a dynasty league, then once he’s been eliminated he has nothing left to lose, and if he’s interested he can easily throw a stick in the spokes of the league’s competitive framework. Of course, a motivated owner can screw up a league whether there’s a trade deadline or not. Often the owners who miss the playoffs are the least skilled owners in the league, and a trade deadline can be seen as a tool to protect them from themselves. Of course, bad or inexperienced owners can be fleeced before the deadline just as easily as after. Much like the league veto, a trade deadline strikes me as a pessimistic measure that assumes the worst about your league mates. If you’re in a stable, reliable league with quality owners you trust, there’s no real reason to have one. In redraft leagues, trade deadlines exist to ensure that teams cannot make any more moves once they have nothing left to play for. In dynasty leagues, teams never have nothing left to play for.
As yet another trading season passes with a collective shrug, it seems to me the best way to celebrate the pointlessness of the trade deadline in the NFL is to recognize the pointlessness of the trade deadline in dynasty leagues.
Heard Around the Water Cooler
The Eye Test
Rewatched NE-NYJ - Even when Geno Smith's downfield passes are incomplete they are almost always on target. Deep accuracy coming along well
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
Does anyone put Terrelle Pryor in his totem pole of young QBs? I'd be tempted to at this point.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
(I think any “totem pole” that includes Ryan Tannehill at this point has to also include Terrell Pryor)
Tim Wright's a stud. If the Bucs re-design the offense, he's going to be fantastic. (Yes, that includes for fantasy purposes)
Tim Wright is a WR playing TE. His blocking is not good. But let's find a true TE and use him as a slot receiver and we're good.
-Joe Bussell (@NFLosophy)
ESPN's Ron Jaworski on Jordan Reed: "Sensational ... Jumps off tape ... Is going to scare the hell out of defenses"
-Evan Silva (@evansilva)
In my original draft eval of Stephen Hill, I described him as 6' 4" version of Ted Ginn Jr Jr. Starting to think I gave Hill too much credit.
At least Ted Ginn Jr Jr is 5' 11" and plays his height. Hill is 6' 4" and the way he always tries cradle his catches, he may as well be 5' 11".
-Paymon Shokoohi (@SetMyRoster)
Great QB matchup in Detroit. No one wants to hear it, but Stafford and Romo have been top 10 QBs this year.
-Gregg Rosenthal (@greggrosenthal)
At this point, it's hard to imagine the Patriots offense looking worse with Ryan Mallett in there. #Justsayin
-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)
Jason Campbell only has 180 yards, it seems like Josh Gordon has 400.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
I'm not sure where I have Terrance Williams ranked among dynasty WRs, but it's probably too low.
-Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23)
Took heat for saying I thought Terrance Williams's game would translate to NFL. Makes plays
-Chris Brown (@smartfootball)
Maurice Jones-Drew is playing a "come get me" game today. He's been outstanding.
MJD has broken tackles all day, been a smart, disciplined runner and is probably the best pass blocking RB in the NFL.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
In case you were wondering . . . Kenny Stills is pretty good in the red zone.
-Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman)
Kenny Stills y'all, Kenny Kenny Stills
-Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23)
Brady's comeback overshadowed Stills' sick long TD to give #saints late lead in Week 7. Don't think he'll be overlooked now.
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
(On the other hand, Joe Morgan…)
Watched Peyton Manning all through warmups. If his ankle/s are bothering him, he's not showing it.
-Lindsay Jones (@bylindsayhjones)
#broncos should keep feeding Moreno, looks like he is running angry
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
Hey Andre Ellington 80 yd TD run. Good thing they were limiting his touches to keep him fresh for this game.
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
I see Andre Ellington is having a game that is predictable for his skill set. Not sure why Mendenhall is still the "lead" back.
-Joe Bussell (@NFLosophy)
AJ Green makes Andy Dalton look great.
So I guess Andy Dalton's performance today makes him elite. My bad for thinking his film says more about him than today's game. Mea culpa.
-Joe Bussell (@NFLosophy)
Ugly game for RGIII. He will get back to 2012 form eventually, but it wasn't last week and it won't be next week.
-Chris Wesseling (@ChrisWesseling)
Denver is the best wide receiver screen team in the league, in no small part because of when Manning checks to them
-Chris Brown (@smartfootball)
Cordarrelle's speed is incredible...incendiary as some might say.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
@Cianaf He's the most impressive non-RB ball carrier I've ever seen.
-Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman)
Who else in the league makes that throw other than Aaron Rodgers?
-Joe Bussell (@NFLosophy)
Everyone else can just go home now. Aaron Rodgers won at life.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
That was an insane throw to Jordy Nelson by Rodgers. Not fair.
-Paymon Shokoohi (@SetMyRoster)
Jordy = Top-5 NFL receiver. Complete player.
-Evan Silva (@evansilva)
Eddie Lacy is probably the biggest surprise to me this season outside of Terrelle Pryor.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Comp that I don't know would hold up to numbers but to me Aaron Dobson = Braylon Edwards. Gets open effortlessly and then 50/50 on the catch
-Fantasy Douche (@FantasyDouche)
(Throw Stephen Hill into the comparison, too…)
Will be broken down in detail on FBG, but of Dalton's 5 TDs, two were impressive throws, one was wide open and two were Jones being crazy.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
The Numbers Game
Jordan Reed's low PPR week this year is 8.8 points, higher than all TEs except for Gronk, who has played just one game.
-Chad Parsons (@ChadParsonsNFL)
(Note: this was tweeted before week 8’s games. Jordan Reed now stands alone)
#Patriots RB Stevan Ridley now has 269 yards & 4 TDs on his last 53 carries (5.06 YPC).
-Evan Silva (@evansilva)
Gronkowski + Amendola + Edelman + Thompkins = 7 catches, 49 yards #WOW
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
#Saints Graham was indeed limited. But just really good. He only played one snap in second half, and scored on the play.
-Mike Triplett (@MikeTriplett)
Tom Brady has finished as QB27 on three different weeks this season and only has one finish among the top 10 QBs
-Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23)
Aaron Rodgers sporting a 130.5 passer rating tonight while playing without 3 WRs/TEs who account for 54% of his yards this season.
-Chris Wesseling (@ChrisWesseling)
Since Week 4, Terrance Williams is fantasy football's #6 WR with 21-384-4 in five games.
-John Paulsen (@4for4_John)
Joseph Fauria was not targeted yesterday. Only ran 7 routes.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
(Worth pointing out: this was even after Tony Scheffler’s release from the team)
Holy cow, Eddie Lacy. Carries over the last 4 games: 23 - 23 - 22 - 29
Jordy Nelson has seen 23% of the Packers targets on the season and over the last 2 weeks. No boost without JJ/Cobb/Finley
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Julian Edelman only ran 11 routes yesterday. Kenbrell Thompkins ran 6. Austin Collie? 19.
Ridley and Blount have combined for 7 targets this season. Shane Vereen has 10 (in 1 game)
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
There are only 13 running backs in the league averaging more rushing yards per game than Terrelle Pryor's 65.1.
-Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan)
Matthew Stafford was 14-of-18 targeting Calvin Johnson Sunday, avg18.3 YPA. When targeting all others, he was 19-of-30 and averaged 5.3 YPA
he's Don Mega. Calvin Johnson had 7 20+ yd receptions Sunday. 3rd time he's done that. No other WR has done it once since the start of 2001
-Cecil Lammey (@cecillammey)
Robert Griffin III III was sacked or put under duress on 42% of his dropbacks vs #Broncos, the highest percentage of his career
-Cecil Lammey (@cecillammey)
Adrian Peterson is currently sitting on his best Elusive Rating score ever, and is gaining 3.4 yards per carry AFTER contact.
-Pro Football Focus (@PFF)
Also of Interest
I love it when I say something like Dwayne Bowe is free and has a decent upcoming schedule and people are like "he sucks" which he might...
.. and then I go look at leagues I'm in and Doug Baldwin is owned and it's like what's your real upside there?
Bowe might suck, or it could just be variance or it could just be a difficult schedule, but again - he's free pretty much.
DWAYNE BOWE SUCKS - Sincerely, a Vincent Brown owner.
DWAYNE BOWE SUCKS - Sincerely, a Marlon Brown owner.
-Fantasy Douche (@FantasyDouche)
Jarrett Boykin is going to be an integral part of the Packers offense going forward—and an integral part of lots of fantasy teams.
-Dexter’s Library (@Dexter’s_Library)
Both of TE Jordan Reed's touchdowns have come when lined up wide right at the goal line Wk2 and Wk7....2 rec, 6 yards, 2 TD #mismatch
-Bryan Fontaine (@Bryan_Fontaine)
Don't let Antonio Gates' late-career flourish this season cloud the potential of Ladarius Green. 5-113 on 7 TGTs. Good dyno stash.
-Chad Parsons (@ChadParsonsNFL)
Kenbrell Thompkins is only 10 months younger than Michael Crabtree. #FunFact
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Come off-season, Larry Fitzgerald and Cards will be on clock, when some believe a divorce is somewhere between possible and inevitable.
-Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter)
(I’d say such news would qualify as somewhere between huge and monumental)
Spiller officially out. Here's hoping he's out next wk too. What makes him special=speed/cutting ability. If can't do that what's the point?
-Paymon Shokoohi (@SetMyRoster)
First 30 minutes of the season were exciting, but remember: Chip Kelly took over a terrible team, will take some time to turn them around.
I declare Chip Kelly a failure in the NFL, as he clearly can't make his offense work with a third string, fourth round rookie QB.
-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)
So if Ryan Williams isn't worth having up when Rashard Mendenhall is inactive, why he is on the #cardinals roster?
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
Cincinnati edging the Jets in the yardage battle, 181-1.
The Bengals were a bad matchup for the Jets this week, because the Cincinnati is good at football.
The 0-7 Bucs have been outscored by 63 points this year; the Jets have been outscored by 68 points this season.
-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)
Love Jordan Reed, but he's missed snaps with some minor, nagging injuries in at least half his games this year, IIRC.
-Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23)
Couldn't help but notice Stephen Hill breaking wide open deep on that Pick 6. Geno never even looked that way.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Exhibit A in "better to be a year early than a year late" abandoning an RB RT @RotoPat The Ghost of Steven Jackson has 11 carries for 2 yds
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
Arians said Ellington couldn't handle a full workload. Expect a split between him and Stepfan Taylor.
-Joe Bussell (@NFLosophy)
Greg Jennings is invisible. But hey, if you can piss away a talent like Adrian Peterson I suppose expectations should be low for everyone.
-Paymon Shokoohi (@SetMyRoster)
Cord Patterson still fourth on Vikings at WR. Can't imagine it will be long until he's running as the 2, however.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
If Jimmy Graham's snap count doesn't rise, he's essentially going to produce like Joe Fauria. That's not too appealing.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Chris Cooley just said on 980 that Jordan Reed was so worked up about his pass drop that he caught 300 passes on his own this afternoon.
-Michael Phillips (@michaelpRTD)
For Brady owners: Jake Locker has produced on a par w any QB in NFL over last 3 starts + weak 2nd half sked. The "secret" FF QB1 on your WW
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
Jake Locker worth owning in all FF leagues. Cakewalk sked. Secret stud in per-game scoring. Dual threat & #Titans use him on designed runs.
-Evan Silva (@evansilva)
Andre Roberts is one of the players who are not having a good season that I want to stash on my dynasty roster late in the year.
-Shane P. Hallam (@ShanePHallam)
The really depressing thing about Tom Brady's performance to date is that their pass schedule looks like cake in hindsight.
-Fantasy Douche (@FantasyDouche)
We've stopped talking about it, but Peyton Manning is on pace for 5,838 yards, 58 TDs, and 12 INTs while completing 71.2% of his passes.
But it kind of feels like it's an "oh by the way, Peyton Manning is having the greatest season in NFL history."
-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)
Marvin Jones (Pros and Cons)
Marvin Jones is turning into a red zone wonder. Contorts and extends to make tough catches in tight quarters. Another TD.
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
Marvin Jones >>>>>> Mohamed Sanu.
-Evan Silva (@evansilva)
Friend of mine is a Bengals fan and said people don't understand how good Marvin Jones is. Good day to say that.
-Joe Bussell (@NFLosophy)
Even though Marvin Jones picked up 122 yards yesterday - he only ran 13 routes! That's 9.38 yards per ROUTE RUN.
By way of contrast the 329 yards of Calvin Johnson on 51 routes earned him a 6.45 yards per route run figure. 2nd highest of the year.
-Pro Football Focus (@PFF)
Before you spend on Marvin Jones, know that he played 19 snaps yesterday. Still No. 3 at WR (and Baby Hawk set to return)
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
It's way too early to say Marvin Jones > Sanu IMO. Sanu is a matchup nightmare.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Marvin Jones is dead last among the Top 65 fantasy WRs in % of team snaps played
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
One Last Word
"Ok basically, Lou Reed was Godfather of all the things James Brown was not Godfather of." - Me, tomorrow, explaining this to students.
-The Gurgling Cod (@TheGurglingCod)
Second Thoughts
Every week, Stephen Hill is a name that shows up frequently in my twitter timeline. Some people love him. Some people hate him. Some people feel neither. Some people feel both. Not only does everyone have an opinion on him, but some people even have two. So, to celebrate the polarizing receiver for the Jets, here are a pair of opinions on him:
If we count near-misses, few receivers in the league are as productive as Stephen Hill, who gets open with ease down the field and is a threat to score on any play. He's a physical force with a quarterback who is quietly developing some good ability on the deep ball. It seems like several times a game Hill will just miss out on an errant pass that would have been good for 40 yards, or Hill will manage to get behind the defense with nothing but green grass in front of him only for Geno to not see him. As he watches more film, Geno will become quicker to look for Hill in those situations. In the meantime, "unrealized production" is sometimes the best kind of production; since it doesn't show up in the stat sheet, it's often not factored into a player's asking price. By that measure, Hill might be one of the most undervalued receivers in the league today.
On the other hand, perhaps we would be better served asking ourselves why we have to spend so much time counting all the near-misses. Hill has also been the common denominator on all of those missed opportunities. Why is it that they're becoming so depressingly common with him? Perhaps he's unlucky. To borrow an old expression, though... I'm a big believer in luck, and I find that the harder a player works, the more of it he seems to have. Stephen Hill probably has the highest ratio of potential production to actual production in the league. If I am not the Stephen Hill owner, I might send out some feelers to see if I can sneak him away on the cheap. On the other hand, if I AM the Stephen Hill owner and someone sends some feelers my way, I just might have to listen to see what their idea of "cheap" is...
Whatever Stephen Hill is, it's clear that Marvin Jones is the opposite. He spends more time off the field than on it. He's arguably his own team's 4th or 5th option in the passing game. He's also on fire recently, even ignoring his 4-TD game. I know that he was a popular prospect in a lot of quarters, but efficiency numbers that are even a fraction of his current totals are wholly unsustainable. Either Jones' role will increase dramatically in Cincinnati, or he is going to brutally disappoint everyone who is starting to get very excited about him. I've said before that I make a point of not buying players coming off of a big game. The same cannot be said for selling players coming off of a big game, an activity that I happen to be a big believer in. Sometimes it backfires and you trade away Miles Austin or Anquan Boldin, but for the most part, people overreact to immediate results. Taken as a whole, the market for players coming off of big games is too hot, and over a large enough sample, it pays to be a seller.
Robert Griffin III III. By now, you all know that I'm a big advocate for buying broken players at unreasonable discounts, so it's only fair that I stand up when the system struggles. My short-term expectations for Griffin were too high based on the recent recoveries of Adrian Peterson and Jamaal Charles. Previous quarterbacks returning from knee injuries, such as Tom Brady and Carson Palmer, clearly took a while before their mechanics were back. The same has been true of Robert Griffin III so far, and I'm not optimistic about our chances of seeing the 2012 version of Griffin at any point during the 2013 season- either as a rusher OR as a passer. My short term expectations for him have been adjusted downwards. My long-term expectations, on the other hand, have remained exactly the same. If anything, his recent struggles have only extended the window to buy in on the ground floor of a guy who will be a transformational talent for the next decade.
I've reached a point where I can't blame Tom Brady's receivers for his struggles anymore. Supporters can quote all the stats they want, the truth is, Brady simply doesn't look like the same guy. Is this decline age-related? I don't know one way or the other, but I do believe that's a possibility. Either way, at this point, I don't know if Tom Brady is still a top 10 dynasty quarterback.
Speaking briefly of Tom Brady's receivers... I'm selling on Edelman and Thompkins, buying on Amendola and Gronkowski, and holding on Dobson. I'm also eyeing Austin Collie in every league where he's available on waivers. I'm not willing to make sweeping statements based on a single week of action, but seeing Collie getting more work than Edelman and Thompkins already is interesting as a potential harbinger of things to come.
Calvin Johnson is insanely good, but everyone already knows that. Jordy Nelson is also insanely good and the exact same age, but somehow this always seems to take people by surprise. Nelson never gets the respect that he's due as a truly deserving top-12 dynasty WR. Often, his owners are the only ones who truly appreciate him. Sometimes, not even they do. You can bet I've made inquiries in all of my leagues to see which of his owners fall into the former group and which fall into the latter.
Best of luck to everyone in their Week 9 games. I'll see you back here next week with plenty of NFL action to break down and plenty of dynasty implications to discuss!
