Hey guys and gals, welcome to This Week in Dynasty. This is a new feature this year where we're going to discuss relevant developments from around the league with a dynasty slant. Everything is fair game, from high-level strategy to nitty-gritty player evals. If you have an suggestions for topics you'd like to see covered in this space, or if you'd just like to join the conversation, feel free to let me know on Twitter at @AdamHarstad.
The Big Takeaway
With 6 weeks now on the books, most leagues are starting to see a lot more stratification among the teams, with the top of the standings dominated by contenders and the bottom filled with teams who are beginning to look to next year. As a result, the trade market in dynasty leagues is beginning to heat up, as contenders and rebuilders look to shuffle assets between themselves to better suit their goals. Where possible, bad teams will sell aging stars to good teams for promising prospects. Where such swaps are not possible, many teams will opt instead to complete transactions using the one truly universal currency in dynasty leagues- future rookie draft picks.
Currencies serve two primary functions. They exist as both a medium of exchange and as a store of value. In order to be a good medium of exchange, a currency has to be desirable (so that people will be interested in exchanging for it) and portable (to facilitate the exchange). Dog food would make a poor currency, because people who did not own dogs would be unwilling to give anything for it. Gasoline is much more universally coveted, but it would also be a poor currency; a thousand gallons of gasoline is valuable, but good luck mailing it in to pay your mortgage. In order to be a good store of value, a currency has to be durable. If an island nation in the South Pacific opted to use snowballs as currency, everyone would be destitute by noon.
Rookie picks are so popular as a currency in dynasty leagues because they meet all of these criteria. They are universally coveted because, outside of the waiver wire and trades, they're the only way for a team to increase its talent level. They're completely portable; unlike players, there is no limit to the number you can hold. Finally, rookie picks are durable. They never get injured and lost for the season, they never retire suddenly or get suspended, they never have a bad game. They're not quite a perfect currency. An ideal currency is also divisible. If you covet a player who isn't quite worth a whole 1st round rookie pick, you cannot just trade half of your rookie pick for him. Still, despite the limitations, future rookie picks are the most ideal currency available in dynasty leagues. Given all of this, the big surprise isn't that picks aren so popular as trade bait, it's that they aren't MORE popular as trade bait. Even teams with deep rosters that aren't particularly looking to add more rookies can acquire future rookie picks with the intention of trading them later.
One interesting attribute of rookie picks is that, as anyone who has participated in dynasty leagues for a while can attest, they have a "life cycle". As the season goes on, their value tends to steadily decline until finally reaching its nadir around weeks 10-12. Afterwards, the value slowly rises again as teams get eliminated from the playoffs, continuing to rise through the pre-draft process, and finally peaking immediately before the draft once everyone has specific players they love and specific names they are targeting. This life cycle is fairly universal in dynasty leagues. Is it rational, though?
Superficially, at least, it's easy to construct a narrative for why rookie picks decline in value during the season. As weeks go on, teams pile up wins and losses, and they get a better idea of whether they're a contender or not. Teams suffer injuries and develop holes. If an owner considers himself a contender, he's going to look to patch that hole while giving up as little present value as possible. The better he feels about his team, the more future value he'll give up for some present value, which drives down the cost of upcoming rookie picks. The problem with this narrative is that it's too simple. Fantasy football is a zero-sum game. One person's win is another person's loss. If that win makes one owner more confident of his title chances, it should make the other owners less confident to an equal degree. In any given league, there is a 100% chance that one person walks away with the title. If one owner's chances at the title go up by 10%, then that means everyone else's chances MUST go down by 10%, too. As a result, at the same time that some owners are becoming MORE willing to give up their future picks, other owners should be LESS willing to an equal degree to offset. In terms of supply and demand, the market should never change- as supply goes up, demand should go up by an equal amount, keeping the value of future picks constant.
That's a great idea in theory, but in practice, it's not what happens. After six games, a large number of owners who sit at 2-4 will look at the standings and conclude they're just one win out of the playoffs, which makes them want to make moves with an eye to the short term. You don't seen an equally large number of owners who sit at 4-2 looking at the standings and concluding that they're just one loss out of MISSING the playoffs, which would make them want to make moves with an eye to the long term. In fantasy, everyone suffers from optimism bias, overrating their own individual odds of winning the title. Even small errors in judgment like that can add up. In a 12-team league, if each of your league mates overestimated his chances by just 5%, then your league as a collective would be estimating that they had a 155% chance at the title. In such an environment, short-term assets will naturally be overpriced and long-term assets will be underpriced. A wise fantasy owner will guard against this optimism bias. A wise fantasy owner will make moves with an eye towards the worst case as well as the best case. A wise fantasy owner might conclude that, even if he's a good bet to win it all this year, the coming weeks might still be a pretty good time to look into buying some future draft picks. After all, picks are essentially currency, and if people are selling dollar bills for $.75, they're a good purchase regardless of one's investment strategy.
Heard Around the Water Cooler
THE EYE TEST:
There's a Foles rushing TD.... love it. Again, breaking ties in favor of Eagles is a strong rule of thumb
-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)
Always talked about Nick Foles' excellent pocket presence. Really stands out. Looked A+ on drive No. 1. #eagles
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Nick Foles has 4 TDs today vs TB D. TB D had allowed 5 offensive TDs in four games coming into today.
Not sure Vick is getting his job back. Sigh.
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
Foles turns into Peyton Manning in Tampa. 7 TDs, almost 700 yards in 2 games.
-Gregg Rosenthal (@greggrosenthal)
A.J. Green skies over McKelvin for the touchdown. That play was unstoppable.
-Chris Wesseling (@ChrisWesseling)
AJ Green just showed why Andy Dalton occasionally has fantasy value.
-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)
Nothing the cornerback can do to AJ Green there. He can do that all day if Dalton gives him opportunities(he often doesn't).
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
LeVeon Bell is suffering from Mendenhallitis right now. Absolutely nowhere to go.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Geno does the unthinkable and overthrows Stephen Hill, who could have had a 70+ yard TD. Had the D and Polamalu beat deep.
-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)
You know who Cam Newton reminds me of today? Cam Newton. Looks the same as he's always looked. Only surprising "box score scouts".
-Adam Harstad (@AdamHarstad)
Jamaal Charles is a fantasy God.
-Joe Bussell (@NFLosophy)
Coming out party for Rutgers UDFA WR to TE convert Tim Wright. 7-91 today and helping pass offense not miss Mike Williams
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
And pick up Tim Wright in dynasty and if you are hurting at TE. That guy is for real.
-Chet G (@Chet_G)
Wouldn't brush Bucs TE Tim Wright off as a fluke. Converted NCAA WR with excellent movement skills. Clearly has big chemistry with Glennon.
-Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan)
First half RB touches for Patriots: Stevan Ridley 12, LeGarrette Blount 5, Brandon Bolden 4. Ridley dominating snaps now, too.
-Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan)
Justin Blackmon has been uncoverable on that slant. Going back to preseason, he's been night and day from rookie year.
Blackmon has 13 for 180 on 19 targets, most of them slants. Looks like a young Boldin. #JAXvsDEN
-Chris Wesseling (@ChrisWesseling)
remember when brady was washed up five minutes ago.
-Evan Silva (@evansilva)
Carson Palmer and his damn garbage yards, just throw a pick so we can get a quick knee and end this.
-Scott Kacsmar (@FO_ScottKacsmar)
Terrence Williams ladies and gents. He's here to stay.
-Paymon Shokoohi (@SetMyRoster)
Terrance Williams continues to make Miles Austin expendable. Former has 2014 WR3 written all over him. Buy in dynasty.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Some runs, some drops, good coverage, but RG3 did not throw the ball well tonight. Disappointing effort.
Loved Pierre Garcon tonight. And the targets are there. But the catches are not. Break here, break there and he's over 100 yards w/ a TD.
15 targets for Garcon. 6 catches, 69 yards. Day should've been so much better. Lots to like going forward on that front.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Griffin has his speed back. But accuracy was his trademark trait last year and it's not the same.
-Gregg Rosenthal (@greggrosenthal)
One thing to note, RG3 spent all offseason rehabbing when most of the other QBs worked on their craft. Big difference.
-Paymon Shokoohi (@SetMyRoster)
Keenan Allen looks like a nifty veteran with a 20 year old's agility. So impressive the last couple of weeks.
-Joe Bussell (@NFLosophy)
Keenan Allen fever. Only needs more cowbell
-Bryan Fontaine (@Bryan_Fontaine)
Ladarius Green = The next Jordan Cameron/Julius Thomas
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
why ladarius green doesn't play more is crazy
-kalani91 (@kalani91)
I had Ladarius Green ranked as my top TE coming out in 2012. He will be big when featured more.
-Ryan Riddle (@Ryan_Riddle)
I've got very little stock in Coby Fleener, but it's all for sale at a cut price.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Way Danny Woodhead is being deployed in this offense makes it look so easy that you wonder why every team wasn't bidding for his services.
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
Realize this is unpopular opinion at moment, but I dont think there is anything wrong with Trent Richardson's running. Tackle-breaking stud.
If we re-draft today, Trent Richardson is inarguably 1st-round fantasy pick. Obvious guy to target in trades.
-Evan Silva (@evansilva)
THE NUMBERS GAME:
A part people consistently get wrong about the Fred Jackson/C.J. Spiller debate? Durability. Spiller zero missed games since '11, F-Jax 12.
-Patrick Daugherty (@RotoPat)
Vick -- who is out -- has such wacky stats this year. 31st in completion %. 2nd in YPA.
-Gregg Rosenthal (@greggrosenthal)
Eagles have scored 30+ points four times this season. Last season they scored 30+ one time
-Chris Brown (@smartfootball)
44 throws for Matt Cassel, 10 carries for Adrian Peterson (6.2 YPC). I don't care what the score is, that's dumb. #Vikings
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
49ers still haven't completed a pass to a wide receiver other than Anquan Boldin since Sept. 26.
-Matt Barrows (@MattBarrows)
SF is the only team to have just 2 players with 102+ receiving yards. Only TB, TEN, and MIN - 2 of whom had byes -- have only 3 such players
-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)
(One possible takeaway here is that San Fran's receiving corps sucks, and that's true. Another possible takeaway is that Colin Kaepernick is the kind of guy who locks onto his favorite weapons and doesn't go through his progressions, and that's also true. It bodes well for Crabtree once he returns…)
After slow start, #Steelers WR Antonio Brown is now on pace for 132 receptions.
-Evan Silva (@evansilva)
Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston, and Danny Abramowicz all have the same number of catches today for the Saints.
-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)
Time to downgrade CJ3ypcK to CJ2ypcK because he's averaging 1.92 YPC over his last 3 games. Guy is totally ineffective.
-Evan Silva (@evansilva)
Michael Irvin, Steve Largent, Art Monk, Anquan Boldin, Torry Holt each had190 rec yds in a game 2x. Justin Blackmon has done it 2x in 17 gms
-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)
Justin Blackmon has more targets in 2 games than Tyler Eiffert, Kenny Britt, Sidney Rice, Roddy White have all season.
Justin Blackmon had 20 targets in week 6, VJax was next highest w/ 14. 3rd highest? Kris Durham of course.
-Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23)
Justin Blackmon currently leads the league in yards per route run (by over a yard!) at 4.13
-Pro Football Focus (@PFF)
Lance Kendricks has played more snaps than Jared Cook each of the last 2 weeks (105-to-67 total)
Tavon Austin played four snaps yesterday. You read that correctly.
Zac Stacy was on the field for all but 9 of the Rams offensive plays. He's the clear feature back going forward (for now).
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Garrett Graham will be a post-hype star for sure. Trailed team-leader in routes (Nuk) run by one. Ran same # as Andre
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
% of offensive snaps played by week by Doug Martin: 1. 93% 2. 89% 3. 85% 4. 89% **5. 63%**
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Josh Gordon on pace for 88-1502-7 in a 14 game season, after missing first two games due to suspension.
-Josh Moore (@4for4_Josh)
The last game in which CJ Spiller was targeted more than Tashard Choice came in Week 2.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Ryan Mathews has 16+ carries in four of his last five games.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Peyton Manning leads the NFL with 9.1 YPA. Second and tied for third are Michael Vick (9.0) and Nick Foles (8.9).
-Chris Wesseling (@ChrisWesseling)
56:19 snap ratio between Jordan Reed:Fred Davis. No shocker, but the #1 TE for Redskins is crystal clear.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Austin leads #Rams in targets. Has 6 drops & is avging 6.6 yds/catch. He's been an ineffective NFL player and that's why his snaps dropped.
-Evan Silva (@evansilva)
Under B Schottenheimer this year, S Bradford on pace for career bests in TD-INT ratio (35:8), yards (3,819), QB rating (90.7) & sack% (5.3).
-Evan Silva (@evansilva)
Gio Bernard has played more snaps & handled more touches than Green-Ellis in 3 of #Bengals last 4 games. Gio No. 7 fantasy RB last 5 weeks.
-Evan Silva (@evansilva)
ALSO OF INTEREST:
With the problems the Buccs are having it's tough to believe Schiano was able to build those middling teams in a weak college conference
-Fantasy Douche (@FantasyDouche)
If you are in this business long enough, you're gonna tweet/write/say something you regret. The key is apologizing for it, not doubling down
-Matt Miller (@nfldraftscout)
Just filed to ESPN that Gronk won't play again and teammates can't reconcile what he does in practice with inability to go on game day.
-Ed Werder (@Edwerderespn)
Gronkowski situation is as fascinating to me as RG3 last year. Layers upon layers of issues b/t player, team, consulting doctors.
-Jene Bramel (@JeneBramel)
Breaking: Player on Bucs not named Doug Martin carries the ball.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Your first 3 TDs today scored by Nick Foles, Thad Lewis, and Cory Harkey, just how we drew it up
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
Just got some milk for my coffee, and a picture of Dwayne Bowe was on the front of my carton.
-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)
So Kris Durham has nearly 50% of Detroit's receiving yards. Broyles still at 0. At what point is he droppable in dynasty?
-Adam Harstad (@AdamHarstad)
Five years from now Brandon Weeden will tell his grandkids about the time he threw the worst pass in NFL history.
-Will Brinson (@WillBrinson)
(For those who haven't seen the play in question, here it is)
Welker is a good example of the idea that just because someone DOESN'T do something doesn't mean they CAN'T do something.
In NE, Welker DIDN'T run many deep routes. Denver uses its slot WR deeper downfield, and Welker has several deep receptions this yr.
Similarly, just because Percy Harvin DIDN'T go deep much in Minn doesn't mean he CAN'T do it in Seattle when he gets back.
-Adam Harstad (@AdamHarstad)
Why was Joe Webb targeted 4 times today? That's double what Patterson saw.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
The Saints have two undrafted running backs active today, and Mark Ingram inactive.
-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)
Jordan Reed is such a great fit for Washington's offense. Best of all, RG3 seems to trust him....I know the Gators miss him.
-Paymon Shokoohi (@SetMyRoster)
In August, Julius Thomas had an ADP of 201 (17th round). In our current In season mocks, he went in the 3rd round.
-Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23)
Another Sunday in the books. If nothing else, we finally got a Michael Floyd touchdown. So there's that.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Julius Thomas/Mike Wallace for Tyler Eiffert/Randall Cobb #dynastytrades
-Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23)
Adrian Peterson was just traded in one of my dynasty leagues for Alfred Morris and Rueben Randle.
-Chad Parsons (@ChadParsonsNFL)
As it appeared, Aaron Dobson seems to have overtaken Edelman/Thompkins on WR depth chart in NE.
That #2 WR job for Patriots is huge, too, considerin that Gronk's return will mean more 2TE sets/fewer WR targets. Dobson a must-own.
Also - a great time to try and sell Kenbrell Thompkins. Snaps down, was only at 2-24-0 before that late TD.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
One other note: Fitzgerald looked fine finishing long TD run. Apparently was a mess after game. Latest example of risk playing thru strains.
-Jene Bramel (@JeneBramel)
At this point, it would be an upset if the #broncos don't re-sign Knowshon Moreno this offseason. Still underrated in dynasty. Only 26.
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
Knowshon Moreno is one of the more interesting names in dynasty right now. Just turned 26 and why wouldnt he remain DEN feature back in '14?
Unless you're all-in on rebuilding, It's fair to wonder if he's worth more than an unknown like Franklin or even Ball.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Source also said that Cobb "nearly broke the fibula all the way through." Was adamant that this will take 6-8 weeks to recover from.
-Tyler Dunn (@TyDunn)
The Randall Cobb injury timetable is also an Aaron Rodgers buy low timetable IMO. #Packers
-Eye of the Gator (@EyeoftheGator)
The Rams are paying $19mm guaranteed to a TE that can't block and played about half the snaps yesterday.
Jared Cook blocking is like the "my bad" guy in pickup hoops.
-Fantasy Douche (@FantasyDouche)
I get people want to see Cordarrelle more, but didn't every single draft analyst say he was very raw and needed time to develop?
The Steelers used Antonio Brown very little as a rookie. He benefited from that in the long term as he spent the year developing.
Dontari Poe was a terrible, raw rookie. Second year he's a DPOY candidate(strong one). Be patient guys.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Report Titans want a 3rd for Kenny Britt - Stash him now before the rush to get him when he's traded (NE? DET?)
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
ICYMI - Kenny Britt played only two snaps yesterday. The most obvious trade bait of all time. #titans
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Gruden is the personification of outcome bias.
-Brian Burke (@Adv_NFL_Stats)
RE: Supporting talented but struggling box-score players. I do this every year. Without fail & always will. If it bothers you, unfollow.
-Evan Silva (@evansilva)
Tony Romo is QB4 overall with weekly finishes as QB19, QB19, QB9, QB9, QB1, QB23. Remember, H2H is a weekly game, not a total points game.
-Rich Hribar (@LordReebs)
Barry Switzer originated the phrase "born on 3rd base and thinks he hit a triple." I'm reminded of that every time Jim Irsay tweets.
-Fantasy Douche (@FantasyDouche)
RG3 plans to run more, and Shanny on board
-Rotoworld Football (@Rotoworld_FB)
Source: Percy Harvin scheduled to begin practicing next week. After hip surgery, he should play sooner, rather than later
-Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet)
Process over results = great long-term results, as it does in poker.
-C.D. Carter (@CDCarter13)
The goal is 1st place, not 5th. The goal is 1st and you should be willing to finish in 11th in your pursuit of getting there.
-Evan Silva (@evansilva)
What couldn't you trade Jamaal Charles for at this point? His value may never be higher than it is right now.
-Doug Veatch (@Harahduh2)
Bryan Anger has punted for 1870 yards already, and Russell Wilson has only thrown for 1254. So maybe we all owe Jags an apology.
-Andy Behrens (@andybehrens)
Second Thoughts
It largely flew under the radar, but after Randall Cobb's injury led to Green Bay placing him on the Injured Reserve list (designated to return), the Packers made a contract offer to receiver Tavarres King on Denver's practice squad. King was a 5th round pick this last year who failed to make the Broncos' roster when they kept just four receivers. King had cleared out his locker and was prepared to go when Denver came in at the last minute and offered to promote him to their active roster just to keep him around. Now, at the end of the day, King is still just at the fringes of an NFL roster and could easily wind up bouncing back to the practice squad. Still, the fact that two of the best franchises in the league were fighting over him means if he wasn't on your dynasty radar before, he should be now. The rumor out of Denver was that King failed to make the roster because of issues with his work ethic rather than his talent. If he gets those issues straightened out, there's a chance he could have a good opportunity in the coming seasons, as each of Denver's five leading receivers (Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Eric Decker, Julius Thomas, and Knowshon Moreno) are all schedule to be unrestricted free agents within the next two years.
Speaking of Denver and its free agents, Knowshon Moreno's recent play is creating quite the dilemma for the Broncos. While Moreno has largely been considered to be in the last year of his contract, the Broncos own a club option for the 2014 season and could opt to keep him around for one more year. Additionally, as well as Moreno is playing, Denver could opt to sign him to a long-term extension. I'm betting that the extension is still a long shot, since Denver has a large number of key contributors slated to hit free agency within the next two years. In addition to Moreno, Denver is slated to lose its four best receivers, its starting RT, its defensive captain, and two of its corners by the end of the 2014 season. Additionally, Von Miller will soon be eligible for a long-term extension. The Broncos may decide it's not worth devoting long-term money to Moreno if it might cost them one of those other players. Still, the best case scenario for Knowshon Moreno is that he's Denver's starting RB in 2014 and possibly beyond. The worst case scenario is that he enters next offseason at just 27 years old and with several teams interested in making him their featured back. Now might be a good time to float a few offers to see if you can land Moreno cheaply from an owner who assumes he'll be worthless next season.
Jimmy Graham was injured, sure, but even when healthy he was held without a catch against New England. After five weeks of dominant performances, it was easy to forget that even the best players cannot sustain that kind of level of production. I'm reminded of week 7 of the 2005 season. LaDainian Tomlinson entered his game against the Philadelphia Eagles averaging 137 yards, with 11 touchdowns in just 6 games. Against the Eagles, Tomlinson rushed 17 times for 7 yards, chipped in 4 receptions for 26 yards, and failed to reach the end zone. Tomlinson would go on to average 109 yards the rest of the way, with 9 touchdowns in his final 9 games- very good numbers, but shy of the jaw-dropping pace he opened the season on. Similarly, when a player begins the season on a record-setting pace, they're typically due for a course correction at some point. Records are records for a reason- they're really, really hard to top. Provided Graham's injury doesn't impact him too badly, I'd expect him going forward to perform more in line with preseason expectations and less in line with his early season dominance.
I believe that fantasy football is hard, and that a lot of the people who play it are very good. As a result, my favorite way to gain an advantage in dynasty leagues isn't trying to outsmart, outwork, or outguess the competition. It's simply finding an inefficiency in the market, and exploiting that inefficiency. Last April in startup drafts, Julio Jones was selected, on average, as the 3rd receiver off the board (9th player overall), Percy Harvin was the 7th (18th overall), Randall Cobb was the 8th (21st overall), and Michael Crabtree was the 10th (30th overall). As of today, all four receivers have suffered comparable injuries that are expected to cost them from 8-12 weeks, including the majority of this season (although Harvin, Crabtree, and Cobb are looking likely to return by the fantasy playoffs). Has the market reacted by discounting all four receivers by a similar amount? For the most part, not even close. That's an inefficiency. If all four receivers are not being discounted a comparable amount, that suggests the market is either discounting some of them by too much, discounting some of them by too little, or both. I know at this point that you probably know me as the guy who tells you to buy injured players every week, but inefficiencies like this can be a potentially huge deal. Just ask the Jamaal Charles owner.
Justin Blackmon is off to a spectacular start to the season, but like with Jimmy Graham, this level of production is not sustainable in the long term. Still, Blackmon has been showing off every bit of the talent that led to Jacksonville drafting him with a top-5 selection. Top-5 receivers have historically been players with very high potential rewards- A.J. Green, Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, and Andre Johnson were all selected with top-5 picks. Julio Jones and Torry Holt were taken 6th overall. Still, while the reward is huge, the risk is as well. The other WRs selected in the top 5 since 2000 are Peter Warrick, Charles Rogers, and Braylon Edwards. Justin Blackmon looks well on his way towards joining that former group, but it's important to remember why Blackmon was serving his four-game suspension in the first place. By some reports, Justin Blackmon is already in stage 3 of the substance abuse program, which means any additional violations will incur a mandatory 1-year suspension. That's a major risk that is flying under the radar, and it has to be factored into his price. In leagues where I own Blackmon, I will be quietly making inquiries to see if anyone is willing to purchase him at a price that reflects all of his upside but none of his downside. I tend to embrace risk when building a fantasy team, but If I could get top-10 receiver prices for Blackmon today, I'd be happy with that. As for who I might target in a trade... well, for starters, there are the four names I mentioned in the previous paragraph...
Also for what it's worth, Josh Gordan, in my mind, is 80% of Justin Blackmon. 80% of the production so far, 80% of the talent, but he only carries 80% of the risk, and he's only due for 80% of the regression. If I could get top-10 WR prices for Gordon, I'd gladly do that, too. I'm less optimistic with my chances, there, so I'd be more inclined to hold him and take on the risk. As I said, I tend to be pro-risk when building a roster, it's only when you can begin to trade an asset that is productive but risky for one that is equally productive but much less risky that trades start to make sense.
Best of luck to everyone in their Week 7 games. I'll see you back here next week with plenty of NFL action to break down and plenty of dynasty implications to discuss!
