Somehow, championship weekend is here upon us. Players have been drafted, trades have been made, games have been won, and berths have been earned. For those alive, lineups have been set and fingers have been crossed.
There’s no time left for last-minute advice. There’s no more room for sweeping proclamations and hare-brained theories and critical looks at league structures. In short, there’s no room for any more Big Takeaways.
In its place, we have a special edition of this week’s Dynasty, in Practice. Within 72 hours, the dynasty community will be turning the page on the 2014 season and welcoming in 2015. This week seems the perfect time to examine what that looks like for individual players in an extended Second Thoughts.
QUARTERBACKS
Volume is the lifeblood of fantasy performance, and Andrew Luck has demonstrated that this year. Luck has already surpassed last year’s attempt total with two games left to go, and currently leads the league. League-leading volume totals can’t be counted on going forward— Peyton Manning, for instance, has only managed to accomplish the feat three times in his storied career— but there’s still plenty of room for Luck’s efficiency stats to grow to offset. In addition to the volume jump, this is Luck’s first season with an above-average yards per attempt or passer rating, and there’s plenty of room for that to continue to grow in the coming seasons. In short, just because his volume is likely to decline doesn’t mean his fantasy value is going to take a hit.
I’ve heard many suggest that Aaron Rodgers is playing the QB position better than it’s ever been played. I’m not sure I’d go that far- I think memory might be dulling the edge of just how amazing Peyton’s 2004, Young’s 1994, or Marino’s 1984 really were, (and no, I have no idea why these seasons seem to come around once a decade). To say nothing of old-time seasons like Graham’s 1953 (not 1954— sorry). With that said, I think many people see Manning putting up cartoon numbers at age 38 and assume that the laws of aging no longer apply. Manning’s numbers spiked when he joined Denver because he got an improved supporting cast. Prior to that, they had clearly declined from his age 27-29 peak. Now, Manning’s peak was so high that even a bit of decline left him a top quarterback, but a lot of owners are ranking and projecting Aaron Rodgers as if he’s going to be this exact guy for the next five years. And he won’t be. His skills will decline some. He’ll still be great, he’ll still be one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, but he’s not going to be 2011-2014 Aaron Rodgers indefinitely.
Speaking of Peyton Manning, his recent cold streak draws a lot of concern, and it does seem that Manning’s arm strength fades down the stretch, but a lot of the concern is overblown or out of proportion to the evidence. There’s every reason to believe that Manning can continue to play for as long as he wants to. His current contract has two more years left on it. Sources in Denver suggest he plans on playing it out. That, to me, is very believable. I will be valuing Manning as if he has at least two more years of top-5 play left in the tank.
So Andrew Luck ranks 1st in pass attempts, and it should be no surprise that Drew Brees ranks 2nd. But would anyone have guessed that Ben Roethlisberger ranks 3rd? It’s just the second time in Roethlisberger’s career that he’s ranked in the top 10 in pass attempts. The first came all the way back… last year, when he finished 9th. Is this the beginnings of a trend that will lead Roethlisberger to several more top-10 fantasy finishes in the years to come? Or is his current high ranking a volume-driven aberration that’s doomed to regress? That’s really the key question at play. Roethlisberger has always been a good quarterback, it’s always just a matter of whether he’s going to get enough pass attempts to sustain value. Given how bad Pittsburgh’s defense looks, with no relief on the horizon, I’m betting on this being the new normal for the talented signal-caller.
Speaking of new normals, what are we to make of Ryan Tannehill’s surprise top-10 entry? His attempts per game are pretty similar to last year’s, as are his yards per game, his TD%, and his INT%. The biggest boost comes from his rushing production, which is up almost 8 yards per game from last year. That may not sound like a lot, but 8 yards adds up to the equivalent of 250-300 extra passing yards over the course of a full season. The problem? Tannehill rushed for 227 yards over a 5-game stretch from the end of September to the beginning of November. In his other 7 games, he has just 89 yards total. As a former WR, you would think Tannehill should be providing consistent rushing production, but he just never has. And I’m beginning to think that 5-game stretch was more of a tease than a sign of things to come.
Pro-Footbal-Reference.com tracks how quarterback stats compare to league average on a year-by-year basis. They present this information on a normalized scale where 100 equals league average, and each 15 points a player deviates from that represents one standard deviation. For his career, Matt Stafford has a score between 95 and 105— essentially right at league average— in yards per attempt, net yards per attempted, adjusted net yards per attempt, completion percentage, touchdown percentage, interception percentage, and passer rating. Basically, on a per-attempt basis, he’s a perfectly league-average passer. The only other young quarterbacks I can say the same about are Andy Dalton and Cam Newton. Dalton is one of the most roundly-mocked quarterbacks in the NFL, and Newton supplements his average passing with 7+ attempts and 40+ yards per game rushing. (And besides, Newton’s averages are a hair higher, and Newton has had by far the worst supporting cast of the three.) And yet, despite this, somehow Matt Stafford has a sterling reputation in fantasy football circles. Needless to say, I’m not a buyer.
The bloom is certainly off Colin Kaepernick, and it’s almost entirely because of a dramatic decline in passing efficiency. With Harbaugh’s departure from San Francisco seemingly a done deal at this point, we have no idea what Kaepernick’s new coach will be looking for in a quarterback. Still, with the ability to add 30 yards per game rushing and with natural arm talent that is without peer in the league, I’d rather pass up Matt Stafford and take a gamble on Kaepernick at a fraction of the price.
RUNNING BACKS
The biggest question at running back right now is what to do after Le’Veon Bell. That #1 spot in RB rankings is really an island all to itself, as the young, talented, and productive Bell manages to hit the dynasty trifecta. After that, there are several classes of assets.
On the aging-but-ultra-productive end of the spectrum, you have Matt Forte and Arian Foster. I’d also add Adrian Peterson to this; his production obviously wasn’t there this year, but we have a history of what to expect from him. If we base our expectations on previous backs, each of these players is more than capable of giving another 2 seasons of high-end production. The problem, of course, is they’re also capable of giving another 0 seasons of high-end production. That’s how aging works- guys look fine until they fall off the cliff and you’re left holding the bag.
On the “not-quite-as-old-but-who-knows-what-you’ll-get” front are Marshawn Lynch and DeMarco Murray. Both are legitimate MVP candidates this season. Lynch is the older of the two, but has a much longer track record. The problem? We already hear retirement talk swirling around him, and nothing will destroy what value you have quicker than leaving the league. Murray is younger and would be an unquestioned top-5 dynasty back, but he’s a free agent after the season and he’s currently on pace for 400 carries, plus another 60 receptions and whatever else he receives in the postseason. History has not been kind to backs with that kind of workload, and Murray is a free agent besides.
That leaves three clear contenders for the #2 spot, in my mind. Jamaal Charles is proven, established, and a superstar, but he’ll be 28 in 2015, which means you’re counting on just a couple more years of relevance from him. Eddie Lacy is not as talented and volume has been a concern, but other than Bell, he’s the only top RB under 26. And LeSean McCoy entered the season as the best combination of talent, age, and production, but he’s disappointed badly and ceded much of his role to his backups. That’s good for McCoy’s career prospects, but bad for McCoy’s fantasy owners.
The alternative to spending big on a guy with a bunch of question marks is to buy young up-and-comers at a discount and hope for the best. Cincinnati has a pair of halfbacks who have looked electric over small samples in their short careers in Gio Bernard and Jeremy Hill. Carlos Hyde and Christine Michael could be starters as early as next season, and both bring plenty of pedigree and talent to the picture. Mark Ingram, Jerick McKinnon, and Denard Robinson have all been productive this season, are all young, and all have intriguing draft pedigree, but they’re also all wildcards. There’s no way we can tell what kind of workload they’ll be in line for next season. C.J. Anderson in Denver has been cooling off a bit recently, but if he can maintain his job going into next year, (a big if, of course), he should offer strong returns. On the other hand, so should Montee Ball if he manages to win the job back. Andre Ellington never showed any of that electricity that made him a sensation as a rookie, but that potential is always there. Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley have been nothing but disappointments in New England, but a change of scenery could easily do them good. Or it could not. My preferred approach as 2015 came around would be to load up on several dart throws from this range of assets and, where necessary, supplement with over-the-hill veterans.
The real value at running back, however, lies in the guys who are not yet in the NFL. People talk about how expectations and usage for the position have changed and that’s why this dynasty crop is so weak, but the truth is that extraordinarily little talent wound up entering the league from 2009 to 2012. Over that four-year period, the most talented backs to enter the league are probably LeSean McCoy, Arian Foster, DeMarco Murray, and then… I don’t know. Maybe C.J. Spiller, who really only had one very good year. Maybe Ryan Mathews, who has been solid when he hasn’t been hurt. Alfred Morris is an option, though he can’t catch and his ypc takes a dramatic plunge when Robert Griffin III is out. Maybe even Joique Bell because of his receiving value. Only ten players from that span have started three seasons, only six have made a pro bowl, and McCoy is the only back to make All Pro, (though Murray will almost certainly join him this year). Basically, there was a four-year black hole of talent at the position. Any explanation of the current weakness of RBs that ignores the fact that those were the backs who were supposed to be in their prime right now is missing at least half of the picture. And the only way the league will solve that massive talent hole is if some talent starts entering the league again. 2013-2014 have helped provide a trickle, but 2015 better live up to its hype, or things might start getting even uglier still.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Let’s talk rookie wide receivers, and the top three in particular. Most owners are in agreement that Odell Beckham, Jr., Mike Evans, and Sammy Watkins are the top members of this class, and many are putting them quite high up in their dynasty ranks. In my mind, that is well-deserved— each of the three has demonstrated phenomenal talent and looks ready to have a long and productive career in the NFL. The problem, in my mind, comes when some consider placing these three above young-but-established stars. As I always say, you have to price your risk, and no matter how good a rookie looks, there’s always a chance that it represents his peak. Look no further than Keenan Allen last year. Or Michael Clayton, or Eddie Royal, or Lee Evans, or any number of other receivers who failed to deliver on their rookie promise. Which, don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying these particular rookies are going to bust. I’m just saying that we cannot yet say they are safe and proven in the same way we can say that about, say, a Julio Jones. Or a Dez Bryant. Or an A.J. Green. Or a Demaryius Thomas. Or an Antonio Brown. Any one of whom is still so obscenely young that any age advantage these particular rookies might provide won’t be realized for half a decade or more. Or, to put it another way, the potential value that the rookies offer due to their youth is not enough to offset the extra risk they carry because of the smaller sample size.
On the other hand, looking at age advantages that won’t take 5 years to materialize, Calvin Johnson and Jordy Nelson are proven studs with several years left in the tank. At the same time, aging usually follows a curve, where players start declining slightly once they pass their peak, and those declines begin to accelerate until the player is done. I’m not looking to sell Calvin or Jordy, but I am absolutely okay with putting any of the rookies ahead of those two in a way I’m not okay with putting the rookies ahead of the 26-year-olds.
And in case anyone feels that Sammy Watkins doesn’t deserve mention with Evans and Beckham given Watkins recent struggles and their recent successes, this comes courtesy of Chad Parsons— since 2000, rookie WRs with 4+ 100-yard games are Keenan Allen, Odell Beckham, Anquan Boldin, T.Y. Hilton, Julio Jones, Marques Colston, A.J. Green, and Sammy Watkins. Watkins has been dealing with a groin injury all year and his quarterback play has been more “miss” than “hit”, but his production is still extremely impressive for a rookie WR.
Speaking of rookies, with one more 100-yard game, Kelvin Benjamin can join that list with his 4th of the season. He’s not as dynamic as the others, but he’s had a shockingly good year, especially considering how raw he was entering the league. And, for what it’s worth, Evans is also just one 100-yard game shy of that 4-game mark, too.
With Chicago seemingly falling apart and Trestman almost assuredly on his way out, I’m cooling a little bit on Alshon Jeffery as a dynasty asset. Not enough to drop him out of the top 12, say, but enough to drop him from the top of that big second tier closer to the bottom. Entering the year, his combination of production and age was pretty unique. Now it doesn’t look substantially different from what we’re seeing out of T.Y. Hilton, who has his fortunes tied to Andrew Luck for the immediate future, and DeAndre Hopkins, who has been dominant as the primary receiving option on a run-first offense with horrible quarterback play. Hopkins, in particular, strikes me as an excellent arbitrage for owners who want Alshon Jeffery but balk at the sticker price.
Jeremy Maclin has that Eric Decker look about him. I think there’s a great chance that at this time next year he finds himself providing far more NFL value than fantasy value on a terrible passing offense.
You know who is not a product of his system, though? DeSean Jackson. The former Eagles receiver has been the best player on offense for Washington for most of the year and has topped 5 100-yard games for the second consecutive season. Despite the turmoil at quarterback, the 28-year-old speedster is a very underrated and overlooked player in dynasty leagues.
Another guy who I think is pretty underrated in PPR leagues? Julian Edelman. At this point, it looks pretty clear that he’s the slot receiver in New England for the foreseeable future, and we have years of evidence about what that is worth. Edelman is WR13 this year. He was WR14 last year. He’s locked up long-term in New England. It took years before Wes Welker’s reputation caught up to his fantasy value in dynasty leagues. Is Edelman going to be the same way?
It’s a complete shot in the dark, and it should be valued as such, but I do think it’s interesting that Eddie Royal is a free agent after this season. After a great rookie season, Royal was a poor fit in new coach Josh McDaniels’ offense. That led to him being written off by a large portion of the fantasy community, but Royal has carved out a decent role in San Diego and been a useful security blanket to Philip Rivers. I’m not saying that Royal is the next Emmanuel Sanders, but he fits the profile of a guy with a specific skill set who could see a dramatic spike in value if he lands in the right system. And since his cost right now is basically “free”, why not?
TIGHT ENDS
Right now, Rob Gronkowski owns three of the top five and four of the top seven seasons in PPG by a TE since 1990. He really is in a class unto himself at tight end.
Now, Jimmy Graham may not be in Rob Gronkowski’s class, production-wise (his 3rd and 4th best seasons currently rank 21st and 31st on that last list), but I do feel compelled to defend his value. Right now, Jimmy Graham is playing hurt, and that’s hurting his numbers. That’s a bit of a pattern for Graham— his numbers were impacted by a shoulder injury this year, by a torn plantar fascia last year, and by a broken wrist in 2012. At the same time, when Rob Gronkowski was dealing with his myriad injuries, I was always quick to point out that those injuries were unrelated and that Gronkowski was not, therefore, truly “injury prone”. What’s good for the goose is good for the gander— Graham’s recent injuries have been unrelated and do not constitute any sort of meaningful pattern. Shying away from Graham going forward because he has some sort of propensity to get dinged is as ill-advised as shying away from Gronkowski was before the season. If you’re thinking about putting anyone other than Graham at #2 in your dynasty rankings, I would strongly advise reconsidering.
Julius Thomas has long been considered the clear-cut #3 dynasty tight end and somewhere not too terribly far behind the top two, but I’m not buying it. He has never gotten great target volume- his pace at full health over the last two seasons basically amounts to 100 targets a year- and his athletic ability has always been overstated. He’s reliant on scoring touchdowns at a massive rate for his dynasty value, and that’s not something I want to bet on going forward if I can help it. And given Denver’s pending free agent concerns, it’s not even guaranteed that Thomas will still be a Bronco next year.
There are two guys who I would consider putting above Thomas at #3. The first is Travis Kelce. He’s having a decent season, but rankings should be forward-looking, and Gronkowski might be the only player in the league with more potential at the position. Kelce is a sleeping giant, and I’ll be making plenty of offers to get as many shares as possible before he wakes up.
The other guy who I would be tempted to put over Julius Thomas is Martellus Bennett. It feels like he’s been around forever, but the “Black Unicorn” is still just 27, only one year older than Thomas. He’s also been a productive monster all year long, and was solid last year, too. Most importantly, he’s racking up targets and yards in a way Thomas never has, and both of those make for safer bets going forward.
Another talented young name I’ll be buying cheaply where I can this offseason is Tyler Eifert of the Bengals. His dislocated elbow wound up lingering and essentially wiping out his entire sophomore season at this point, but the Bengals’ usage of Jermaine Gresham has left me wondering what might have been. Since week 6, Gresham has been 5th among TEs in receptions as Cincinnati has turned to the tight end position primarily for its checkdowns. If the offense stays the same next year, Eifert could be a steal, especially in TE-premium leagues.
As for talented young upside players like Eric Ebron, Coby Fleener, Dwayne Allen, Larry Donnell, Mychal Rivera, Zach Ertz, Charles Clay, Jace Amaro, and Austin Sefarian-Jenkins… well, I like to say that the most overrated asset in dynasty is the young WR with upside; not because they aren’t valuable, but because there are so many of them, and people tend to fall in love with individual members of the class and overpay to get them. Like the young WRs, my favorite young TE from that bunch is “whoever I can get cheapest”, and I’d be looking to sell any of them provided I could find an owner who valued them like sure things.
