Earlier this week we established that, while some players will become great no matter what and others are destined to fail, for the majority of NFL players success will be determined, not merely by their own merit, but by whether their development will be fostered in a favorable environment.
Let’s take a look at how that looks in practice. I want to identify a few key NFL players whose careers have been significantly impacted by the presence or absence of the so-called “royal jelly”, and discuss what kind of impact we can expect that to have long-term.
Players Marinating in Jelly
History is littered with examples of players whose careers got off to inauspicious starts, but who were afforded long leashes and multiple opportunities until they finally put the pieces together and turned everything around. I mentioned Thomas Jones in my last column, but in reality, the “highly-drafted running back makes good in his second go-round” storyline is so common as to constitute a true fantasy football trope.
Just to add some more examples from league history, consider Cedric Benson. A bust in Chicago after being selected with the fourth pick of the historically bad 2005 draft, Benson went to Cincinnati where he averaged 1350 yards per 16 games of his next four seasons. After three and a half disappointing seasons in Denver, Knowshon Moreno was a top-5 fantasy back after injuries and underperformance thrust him into the starting lineup over the latter half of 2012 and the 2013 season.
A high 2nd-rounder in 1992 for the Dallas Cowboys, WR Jimmy Smith spent three injury-plagued years with the franchise without recording a single reception before he was cut. He later signed with the Jacksonville Jaguars and became the leading receiver in franchise history. A former 1st round pick, Eddie Kennison bounced around the league before latching on with his fifth franchise, averaging 1,000 yards from scrimmage per 16 games over five years with the Chiefs.
The NFL is stocked with many other players of recent vintage who have underperformed initial expectations, but who will continue to receive opportunities to develop and excel based on their lofty draft position. At quarterback, a player like Blake Bortles or Teddy Bridgewater might struggle more than Austin Davis or Case Keenum when given his first opportunity, but they will reliably be given more and more chances to prove those struggles were an aberration.
What could Case Keenum have become if he played for an organization that was committed to letting him play through his growing pains without worrying about his job security? We’ll never know, but we will certainly find out in the case of Bortles and Bridgewater.
Trent Richardson is the most visible current example of “royal jelly” in action, and it’s fair to say that if it’s even possible for Richardson to excel at the NFL level, he will certainly be given every opportunity to do so. Mark Ingram is another young running back who has been given the royal jelly treatment, and in Ingram’s case, it appears to have paid serious dividends. Despite missing three games, Ingram is the #15 back in fantasy this season and is in line for a nice free agent contract after the season from some other team interested in continuing to lavish him with opportunities.
This past offseason, both Toby Gerhart and Ben Tate were signed and handed starting jobs despite their primary qualification being that they were former 2nd round draft picks. Both players failed to take advantage, but the reality is that they were afforded opportunities that other backs with a similar resume likely would not have received. Montee Ball has looked pedestrian to this point of his career, but we can bet that, if his draft position is anything to go by, he hasn’t seen the last of his opportunities, (just as previous highly-drafted Denver RBs such as Moreno and Ronnie Hillman continued to receive chances long after the fantasy community had left them for dead).
At wide receiver, Michael Floyd, Tavon Austin, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Justin Hunter have all been disappointments this season, but based on their teams’ collective investments, it’s a fairly good bet that all four players will be given plenty of other chances to finally turn around their fortunes in the NFL.
Davante Adams and Cody Latimer may not be seeing the field much this early in their NFL careers, but it’s a fairly safe bet that both of their teams will be committed to getting them the necessary developmental repetitions going forward. Ditto that with injured Jacksonville rookie WRs Marquise Lee and Allen Robinson.
Eric Ebron has looked terrible as a rookie, though few positions see a tougher transition from college to the pros than tight end. Based on Detroit’s investment and their offensive need, we can rest assured that he will be given every opportunity to succeed over the next three years, just as 1st-round bust Brandon Pettigrew was over the last five years.
Tyler Eifert has missed a troubling amount of time this season after dislocating his elbow in week 1, but if there’s one thing we can be certain of, it’s that teams will go out of their way to give highly-drafted players a chance to recover from their injuries and regain their starting role— an opportunity that is rarely afforded to their lower-drafted peers.
Players Who Might Be Ready For This Jelly
With enough success despite limited organizational support, players who were labeled as poor prospects can cause management to rethink their initial stance and start reserving a little bit extra royal jelly for them. The best recent example of this was Arian Foster; undrafted out of Tennessee, Foster spent part of his rookie season on the practice squad, saw his team spend a top draft pick on Ben Tate, and still managed to take the starting job and run with it. Eventually, Houston recognized its error and started providing Foster with the support he deserved, and Foster blossomed as a player from there.
Who are some current NFL players who haven’t been given the royal jelly, but who based on recent play might be in line for some in the near future? There’s a dearth of underrated quarterback prospects right now, but a major glut of up-and-coming running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends.
At running back, Isaiah Crowell had some analysts calling him the most talented back in his class, but off-field incidents and questions about his commitment to the game caused him to fall all the way through the NFL draft without being selected. He landed in Cleveland, which seemed to be reserving its royal jelly for the aforementioned Ben Tate and 3rd-round pick Terrance West. With Crowell handily outplaying both, Cleveland might soon decide to see just what that kind of young talent could really blossom into with proper care, feeding, and sunlight.
Undrafted C.J. Anderson made a big enough impression on Denver’s brass that they kept him around for a 2013 season despite an MCL sprain that made him a long shot to actually contribute. Anderson began 2014 buried on the depth chart as Denver fed its royal jelly first to 2nd rounder Montee Ball, then to 3rd rounder Ronnie Hillman. When injuries forced Denver’s hand, Anderson made the most of his opportunity, averaging 158 yards from scrimmage over his last three games. With Ball and Hillman both lacking a clear timeline for their return, Anderson should earn plenty of those 1st-team reps that are so crucial to player development.
A perennial disappointment in Pittsburgh, receiver Emmanuel Sanders is showing off what the royal jelly is all about. Denver brought him in, installed him as a key piece to their offensive puzzle, and most importantly, tailored their scheme to best showcase his particular skills. The results have been no less than astounding, with Sanders more than doubling his previous career-best yard-per-game average, setting a new career high in touchdowns with five games left to go, and standing as fantasy’s sixth-best fantasy WR to this point. Sanders, like Wes Welker before him, looked like a mediocre receiver on his way out of the league until he landed in a system that featured him and highlighted his strengths.
Just one cog among many in Seattle’s varied passing attack, Golden Tate has found new life on a Detroit team that is willing to make him a featured part of their offense. While it deserves a slight asterisk because Calvin Johnson has missed time and Tate has played one game more than most WRs, Tate currently ranks 5th in the NFL in total targets, and he’s showcasing what a little bit of offensive faith can do with a receiving yardage total that trails only Demaryius Thomas and Antonio Brown.
At tight end, only Rob Gronkowski has been more productive on a per-snap basis than Travis Kelce. Kansas City still has yet to throw a touchdown pass to a wide receiver, but Kelce has helped pick up the slack and keep the passing game afloat. With efficiency numbers like those, it’s only a matter of time before Kansas City decides to apply a liberal coating of royal jelly to see just what Kelce can turn into.
The Impact of Royal Jelly on Fantasy Football
When all else is equal, you want to own the young prospects who will be given every opportunity to reach their potential. That’s a pretty simple concept. It’s part of the reason why I advocate so much for the importance of pedigree when compiling rankings. If two players are equally talented, the higher-drafted one will be given more chances to succeed.
Often, developmental opportunities are not factored into player price as owners focus too much on what a player is right now while ignoring what he could some day become. Again, the vast majority of NFL players are talented and could succeed if given the proper circumstances. Rostering talent is a good philosophy, but in truth, there should be more talent than available roster spots in all but the very deepest dynasty leagues.
Instead, focus your efforts on finding players who have the deck stacked in their favor when it comes to receiving opportunities to translate their talent into on-field production. I’ve mentioned plenty of potential “royal jelly” candidates so far in this post. I’m sure you could easily think of several more. Focus your efforts on securing some of those players, and hope that you are rewarded with plenty of fertile queens while everyone else is starting sterile workers.
Second Thoughts
One player who I didn’t mention is Stevan Ridley, who has received the opposite of royal jelly during his Patriots tenure. Ridley has repeatedly been benched for fumbles despite not having a high career fumble rate. (Ironically, the players he has been benched for have often fumbled at a higher rate than Ridley himself; it was not uncommon to see Ridley, who has fumbled once every 75 touches, benched for LeGarrette Blount, who has fumbled once every 53 touches). With Ridley set to reach free agency, it will be interesting to see what he can do with a supportive, patient coaching staff willing to give him opportunities to shine.
Another player who only needed the proper environment to reach his full potential was Darren Sproles, who was bizarrely franchised by a San Diego team that had little real interest in using him. Unique players like Sproles and Welker sometimes have to bounce around a little bit before they finally land in a system that can unlock their full non-traditional potential. If you own any young prospects who are relatively unique, that’s something to consider- often the only difference between the gadget player in San Diego and the offensive weapon in New Orleans and Philadelphia is one of environment.
Out of curiosity in my oldest dynasty league, I compiled some stats from our league history to look for patterns or trends in the data, (because this is totally what normal people do, right?) When I compared the order of finish at a particular position from year N to year N+1, I noticed some clear trends. At QB and TE, the correlation between performance from one year to the next was a robust 0.44 and 0.48. At RB, the correlation was 0.34, and at WR, that fell all the way to 0.16.
What does this mean? Well, simply, teams are more likely to quickly turn around an underperforming RB or WR corps than an underperforming QB or TE corps. And likewise, teams with top RBs or WRs are more likely to fall off substantially than teams with top QBs and TEs. This should make intuitive sense; with at least two times as many starters at RB and three times as many starters at WR, both units are going to be much more likely to get hit by injury, underperformance, or surprise breakout. Even if QBs and WRs got injured at equal rates, the odds of losing a starting receiver would be three times higher than the odds of losing a starting quarterback.
Of course, another potential takeaway from the data is that the value of elite cornerstones at QB or TE are more consistent from year to year, and potentially underrated. As a strategy, “secure a top QB and TE and throw a bunch of stuff at the wall at RB and WR hoping something will stick” seems like a decent way to approach the game.
Oh, one other thing— the year-to-year correlation in order of finish at defense was just 0.09. Defense performance was barely more predictable than simply rolling a 10-sided die. If you ever wanted to do away with the defense position in your dynasty leagues, this should be a handy argument to deploy. Or you could easily calculate the results for your own league- I’m sure they will also exhibit a startlingly high degree of randomness.
