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The warts of the 2014 quarterback class are being highlighted. It's just that time of the year. We need to tear players down before we build them back up again. It's a rinse-and-repeat process that really only serves the media in their efforts to sell their sites. The reality is that this class isn't special, there are warts on each quarterback's skill set that will cause varying levels of hesitation. That is always the case, but our perception of how quarterbacks are received has changed.
It changed after the 2012 class brought in Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson with, to a lesser degree, Robert Griffin III III and Ryan Tannehill.
Each of these quarterbacks have enjoyed varying levels of success throughout the first two seasons of their careers. Russell Wilson was a key member of the Seattle Seahawks 2013 Super Bowl winning roster. Andrew Luck has had some illogically good performances that helped to drag the Indianapolis Colts to the playoffs in successive seasons. Injury ruined the second season of Robert Griffin III III, but his startling displays made Washington an unlikely playoff team during his rookie season. Ryan Tannehill was considered the least pro-ready of any top quarterback from the 2012 class, but he has been impressive in very difficult circumstances with the Miami Dolphins.
The 2012 class could be remembered for its quality over decades, but that is still undetermined. What is certain is that it has changed the short-term expectations for quarterbacks entering the NFL. Players such as Mike Glennon and Geno Smith aren't even assured of starting spots after impressive starts to their careers last season. In the past they would likely be guaranteed the spot entering training camp or they wouldn't have even started in year one in the first place.
With Teddy Bridgewater, Johnny Manziel and Blake Bortles expected to go in the first round of this year's draft, there appears to be only one player who could follow in the footsteps of Luck and Wilson early in their careers.
Bridgewater is that quarterback. He is advanced mentally, has excellent pocket awareness and his throwing accuracy should seamlessly transition into whatever NFL offense he ultimately lands in. Behind Bridgewater, Johny Manziel is generally considered the second best option. Manziel could have a Griffin-like impact on an NFL franchise during his first season because of his physical talent, but he needs to refine his understanding of the game before he can be expected to work against professional caliber defenses. Blake Bortles has impressive physical talent, but his mechanics are a mess and his consistency throwing the ball needs to improve before he can be an NFL starter.
Each of these quarterbacks could start as rookies. Even though none of them will be expected to replicate what Wilson, Luck, Griffin and Tannehill have done to this point in their careers, the potential for success is very evident.
There will be mistakes and development that must be endured, but the teams in position to take these quarterbacks all have infrastructures in place that could mask the flaws of their new young starters and maximise the production they get from the quarterback position. Unlike Luck, Griffin or Tannehill, none of these quarterbacks appear set to be drafted by a team with notable weaknesses. When Luck arrived in Indianapolis, he was immediately inserted behind an awful offensive line. When Griffin was drafted by Washington, Alfred Morris was still a complete unknown and Pierre Garcon hadn't established himself after signing in free agency. Tannehill played his first season with the Dolphins with an incongruent group of wide receivers, before his offensive line completely collapsed during his second season.
The adversity of being a rookie quarterback is palpable for any starter, but that adversity multiplies when your own team is working against you.
For Bridgewater, Manziel, Bortles and maybe even some of the second-tier options such as Zach Mettenberger, Jimmy Garrapolo or Tom Savage, that adversity should be squashed by very impressive supporting casts.
Houston Texans
Whether in the first or second round, the Houston Texans will likely be taking a quarterback early in the draft. Furthermore, the Texans will likely be starting that quarterback at some point during his rookie season because Ryan Fitzpatrick isn't a viable alternate. Despite Fitzpatrick's stretches of production and that contract from the Buffalo Bills, he has rightfully never found a home as a franchise quarterback because he is not an intelligent quarterback. Harvard degree be damned.
It's fitting that the Texans are the first team to come up for situational importance. Last year's first round pick, wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins out of Clemson, was a victim of his situation.
Hopkins was generally very impressive when the ball was thrown his way. He showed off the ability to make contested catches, lose defensive backs with his route running and create separation with his physical tools. Despite playing over 1,000 snaps, Hopkins saw just 91 targets(41st in the league according to Pro Football Focus), catching 52 and dropping one. Despite being a big physical receiver, with soft hands who could create separation quickly, Hopkins only had two touchdowns.
His poor statistical production was a result of the inaccuracy of both Case Keenum and Matt Schaub under center, while the offense was often overly focused on Andre Johnson. Johnson played fewer snaps than Hopkins, but led the league with 176 targets. While Johnson is markedly better than Hopkins and most receivers in the NFL at this stage of his career, that doesn't warrant neglecting your other receiver. Especially when that receiver is very talented.
On the flipside of this equation, Hopkins will now help the Houston Texans' situation for their incoming quarterback.
Not only will a rookie starter in Houston get to work with Bill O'Brien, a celebrated quarterbacks coach who is the franchise's new head coach, he will also have an established, talented supporting cast. The Texans enter the draft with some issues on the offensive line, but crucially left tackle Duane Brown remains. Brown will provide a comfort for any quarterback whose blindside he protects. Chris Myers, a veteran center, and Brandon Brooks, an outstanding talent at right guard, should help guide the young quarterback and protect him from dominant interior rushes.
Garrett Graham isn't a flashy tight end, but he provides stability and consistency at a position that many young quarterbacks tend to look to for easy throws. Graham can work underneath coverage, has a relatively wide catch radius, is an adequate blocker and has enough athleticism to make plays down the field. Reliable tight end play and a running game that should keep the passing game out of unecessary long situations are two thing that Houston has and two things that young quarterbacks love.
With Houston, you have to go back to the receivers.
There isn't an established third receiver on the roster, but Johnson and Hopkins are dramatically better as a combination than any two starters a quarterback has inherited over the past two seasons. Only Luck inherited a future hall-of-fame receiver as his first-choice target, but as good as Reggie Wayne is he doesn't help a quarterback as much as Johnson. Johnson is an exceptional talent whose statistical production has been hampered by the offense around him. Yes he has always received a lot of targets, but he also hasn't had a true second receiver to take the focus from him on a run-heavy offense.
Hopkins takes the focus away from Johnson. It's very difficult to find a pair of starting cornerbacks who can match up to the physical talent of both receivers. They can extend to catch the ball with wide wingspans, release cleanly from the line so that the timing of routes is perfect and consistently create separation in most situations. Each of those aspects of the receiver position makes the quarterback's job easier.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The St. Louis Rams don't appear set to move on from Sam Bradford, so it's very unlikely that they take a quarterback early in this year's draft. That pushes us forward to the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars are regularly derided by the national media and have become synonymous with the Cleveland Browns as the easiest team in the league to make jokes about. That time should come to a close soon, sooner if the Jaguars take a good quarterback in this class.
When Washington selected Griffin in 2012, they didn't have a great supporting cast of players. Griffin didn't have a star receiver to rely on and there was no established running back. His offensive line was decent because of the presence of Trent Williams protecting his blindside, but it wasn't an overwhelming group as a whole.
Washington helped Griffin to succeed through coaching and play-calling.
Kyle Shanahan was the offensive coordinator of that team, working under his father Mike Shanahan who was the head coach at that point. Whether it was Mike or Kyle, the offense was able to consistently execute their zone-blocking scheme on the offensive line that allowed running back Alfred Morris to quickly become a star. Morris set the tone for the offense and rushed for over 1,600 yards and 13 touchdowns. Kyle Shanahan built his play action approach off of that success to keep defenses off balance. From there, Griffin's athleticism and ability to throw the ball down the field allowed him to produce big numbers.
The Jaguars are in a similar spot to where Washington was a few seasons ago. The talent on the offensive line has been upgraded recently, with Luke Joeckel expected to enter next season as the starting left tackle and Zane Beadles signing in free agency to start at one of the guard positions. Beadles isn't a great player, but he is a decent starter while Joeckel needs to prove himself even though he is very talented.
Toby Gerhart has the potential to be an outstanding feature back, but he needs to stay healthy. Much like Morris did for Washington when Griffin was a rookie, Gerhart could set the tone for the offense and keep any young quarterback out of bad situations.
Even if Gerhart doesn't establish the running game in Jacksonville, it's Jedd Fisch who is the key to the whole situation. Fisch is the team's offensive coordinator. He enjoyed his first season in the NFL last year and showed an adaptability and creativity that served his offense very well. While the unit was a nightmare to begin the season and wasn't exactly dominant to finish it, that production must be seen through the context of the talent he had to work with. Chad Henne, a depleted offensive line and a bunch of unproven receivers can only take you so far.
What Fisch did was give Henne easy throws and scheme yardage for his weapons. Through creative play-calling he was able to give Ace Sanders free releases from the line of scrimmage, put Mike Brown in space and still play to the strengths of his best receivers: Cecil Shorts and Justin Blackmon. It's unclear if Blackmon will return to the team next year, but tight end Marcedes Lewis is very talented and will expect to see more targets with a rookie quarterback while the Jaguars have multiple mid round picks from the Eugene Monroe trade to add weapons to their offense.
This draft should offer them many opportunities to bring in explosive receivers.
Cleveland Browns
Having already touched on Kyle Shanahan's ability to work with rookie quarterbacks, now it's time to touch on his new role with the Cleveland Browns. It appears likely that the Browns will draft Johnny Manziel, simply because he would fit perfectly with what Shanahan wants his quarterback to do. Shanahan is the key for the quarterback position in Cleveland because Mike Pettine is a defensive minded head coach who comes from the Rex Ryan coaching tree in New York.
The Browns retained veteran center Alex Mack, but they still have weakness elsewhere on the offensive line. The Browns do also have Joe Thomas who is arguably the best left tackle in the NFL. Thomas is consistently a dominant player, while his teammate Mitchell Schwartz, the team's right tackle, is talented but needs to rebound after a disappointing 2013 campaign.
If Shanahan is able to establish the same kind of running game that he did in Washington, then the state of the offensive line will be less critical.
Play-action and well-timed pass calls can alleviate the pressure on an offensive line when they are able to establish the run. Ben Tate is a perfect fit behind a zone-blocking offensive line because he has proven he can be effective in that role for the Houston Texans. Tate needs to stay healthy, something he failed to do last season, but he is still a relatively young player.
After his breakout season, everyone knows of the talent of Josh Gordon. Gordon will terrify defenses again next season and provide the team's new quarterback with a margain for error on his deep passes that few are afforded. More important than Gordon are the moves that the Browns have made behind him on the depth chart.
Andrew Hawkins wasn't used a huge amount in Cincinnati with the Bengals, but he is a very elusive player who can turn short, simple throws into huge gains. He will fit perfectly in Shanahan's offense and is a clear upgrade over Greg Little. Of course, Hawkins may not really be replacing Little at all because he is primarily a slot receiver in a traditional offense and Little played outside last year. Instead, Little will be replaced by Nate Burleson. Burleson isn't the most explosive player in the league, but he is a smart veteran who understands how to get open in a variety of situations and will adjust to poorly thrown passes.
The tight end position isn't necessarily a position of emphasis for Shanahan when it comes to throwing the ball, but Jordan Cameron is too talented to go to waste. Cameron is an athletic pass-catcher who will also create separation down the field and adjust to poorly thrown passes. He and Josh Gordon are very effective when asked to attack the deep section of the defense. That will free up space for Burleson and Hawkins to work underneath. With all of those receiving pieces and the potential in the running game, the quarterback won't be asked to carry the offense in Cleveland.
Oakland Raiders
This isn't a good situation for a rookie quarterback. It's hard to put a spin on their offseason moves to suggest that the offense has dramatically improved when they suffered a serious decline at the left tackle position and there is still uncertainty in the backfield. Maurice Jones-Drew should be able to have a good season after dealing with health issues entering last season. He will see a lot of carries behind a less-than-stellar offensive line.
The Raiders have decent receiving options, but lack a truly dominant player at the position. It appears that Matt Schaub is set to start in Oakland either way, so maybe this will be a moot point once the draft is completed.
Minnesota Vikings
Mike Zimmer is the new head coach in Minnesota, but it's unlikely that he will feel pressured to take a quarterback early in the draft. Zimmer doesn't appear to be the type who will force a quarterback pick for the sake of taking a quarterback. The quarterback position wasn't the Vikings' biggest problem last season either, as Matt Cassel performed relatively well in spite of his inconsistent career as a whole. The Vikings need defensive help and Cassel's presence suggests that they could hold off on taking a quarterback for at least another season.
However, Zimmer's presence will also make the front office reconsider how desperate they should be for defensive help. Zimmer has proven throughout his career that he can get the most out of supposedly lesser talent on that side of the ball. With that in mind, the Vikings could take a quarterback if the value is overwhelming. As well as Cassel played last year, he should still only be considered a stop-gap option.
Any young quarterback that enters the league will want a star receiver to throw the ball to. Surpassed that, any young quarterback should want a star running back such as Adrian Peterson to hand the ball off to.
Peterson may be in the second half of his career, but he should have at least one or two years of dominance left. His presence on the roster alleviates the pressure on his offensive line and whoever ultimately starts at the quarterback position. Having a player who provides big plays and still consistently moves the chains is invaluable to a team that is working with a developing passer.
The Vikings don't have a great offensive line as a whole, but they do have the two most important pieces for a quarterback. Starting left tackle Matt Kalil is very talented and he should be entering the prime of his career next season. Starting center John Sullivan is a six-year veteran and one of the better starting centers in the league. Kalil's presence will give a rookie quarterback more comfort in the pocket, while Sullivan should help him diagnose defenses and set pass protections before the snap.
Even though Kalil and Sullivan are surrounded by average starters, Peterson's ability to set the tone for the offense alleviates the pressure on their pass protection deficiencies.
When you look at the receivers for the Vikings, they have two kinds. Both should theoretically help a young quarterback. Kyle Rudolph is a tight end who has the size, athleticism and ball skills to turn inaccurate throws into crucial receptions, while receiver Greg Jennings is a veteran who will consistently be where he is supposed to be and make important catches for his quarterback. These are the reliable targets who can consistently move the chains for a young quarterback.
On the other side of this pairing lies Cordarrelle Patterson and Jarius Wright. Patterson is very similar to former Vikings player Percy Harvin in that he can line up all over the field and make plays in a variety of ways. Not only can he stretch the defense with his speed, his quickness makes him effective on screen plays and his power allows him to take handoffs from the backfield. Wright is less physically gifted than Patterson, but he is very quick and has big play potential. Entering his third season, he should be expected to take the next step and supplant Jerome Simpson on the depth chart.
Creating easy throws for a young quarterback is very important because it gets him in a rhythm. Rhythm creates comfort and comfort creates performance. The problem with creating easy throws is that it can hamper the offense as a whole by taking away the potential for big plays. When you're throwing to players with the YAC ability of Patterson and Wright, then that potential stays high because they can turn simple screen plays into huge touchdowns.
Tennessee Titans
Jake Locker is probably going to start for the Titans and he deserves to based on last season's play. However, if the Titans do add a highly-thought-of quarterback, then there would be the potential for huge production. The release of Chris Johnson wasn't surprising, Johnson had underperformed in recent seasons and he isn't the kind of back that Ken Whisenhunt tends to appreciate. Shonn Greene and Jackie Battle currently sit atop the depth chart at the running back position in Tennessee, so it's hard to project them as a running team at this point.
The Titans will likely draft a running back, but it's still clear that the strength of their offense lies in the pasing game.
Kendall Wright, Justin Hunter, Nate Washington, Delanie Walker and Dexter McCluster are all very dangerous players in different roles and situations. Wright is almost uncoverable from the slot or out wide, while also being very good on screens. Hunter has a huge wingspan and is less raw than many of the other athletes his age in the NFL. Washington didn't drop a single pass last season and was able to consistently get open when working outside. Walker is a very athletic tight end who can easily create separation against linebackers and safeties. McCluster is the least impressive of this group, but he does have value as a receiver coming out of the backfield.
With all of those weapons on the field, the quarterback just needs decent pass protection to be effective.
Losing David Stewart for Michael Oher could prove to be an upgrade or a downgrade. Oher is very talented, but has really struggled in recent seasons. Reverting back to being a full-time right tackle after some time as a left tackle could make him an effective player again. A new center could arrive in the draft or in the form of a very late free agency pickup, while both Chance Warmack and Andy Levitre should be better during their second seasons in Tennessee. Left tackle Michael Roos is a very impressive pass protector.
Warmack and Levitre could be the key here. Solidifying the interior of the pocket without a dominant running game isn't easy to do, but both players are very talented.