Maurice Jones-Drew of the Jacksonville Jaguars has been one of the most productive running backs in the NFL over the past four or five seasons. Even when Fred Taylor was still the starter for the Jaguars during Jones-Drew's first three seasons, the now 28-year-old was finding his way into the endzone more often than most and was finishing the season with respectable yardage totals.
In 2009, during Jones-Drew's first season as the Jaguars' feature back, he compiled 1,391 rushing yards, 15 rushing touchdowns, 53 receptions, 374 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown. That production was good enough to make him the third highest scoring back in fantasy that season, behind only Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson. The following season, Jones-Drew would drop to the 12th highest scoring back in fantasy as he missed two games through injury and nine fewer total touchdowns. Once fully helathy again in 2011, he finished third overall again with over 370 touches and nearly 2,000 total yards.
That brings us up to last season. A season when Jones-Drew was playing on one of the worst offenses in the league and only played in six games before a lisfranc fracture ended his season. Lisfranc injuries are scary for every professional athlete, but even more worry was created by Jones-Drew's perceived slow progress during the off-season. He did return in time to participate in this year's preseason however.
Jones-Drew played just one series during his preseason debut against the Jaguars in their Week 2 matchup with the New York Jets. His first carry was snuffed out by strong play from the Jets' front seven, but his second showed off aspects of Jones-Drew's game that previously made him a superstar running back.
On second and eight, Jones-Drew is lined up in the backfield without a fullback in front of him. The Jaguars motioned a tight end down from the top of he screen so that he was lined up across from Calvin Pace to the bottom of the screen. The Jets didn't shift their defensive line or linebackers to react to the movement on the Jaguars' offense, instead they brought the safety to that side of the field closer to the line of scrimmage.
At the snap, the Jaguars' line begins to move to the right side running a stretch play for Jones-Drew. The right tackle and tight end initially clamp down on Calvin Pace at left outside linebacker. The right guard immediatelly gets outside of the left defensive end, while the left guard cuts the nose tackle allowing the left tackle and other tight end to double down on the right defensive end. While all that is happening, the center has immediately moved onto the second level to locate a linebacker in space.
Jones-Drew takes the ball from Blaine Gabbert angling towards the gap between his right guard and his right tackle. The Jets have four defenders attacking this area of the field with only three Jaguars blockers in place to create an alley for him. Jones-Drew could press the outside and trust his ability to overrun the incoming linebacker, but instead he shows off the vision and understanding of the blocking scheme to create an easier path into the secondary.
The two pivotal blocks on this run come from the left guard, who cut down the nose tackle at the snap, and the center, who engages a linebacker downfield. That is because Jones-Drew immediately recognizes that his blockers to the right side are outnumbered and quickly works back infield to where those two blockers have successful created space for him to attack.
Although Jones-Drew immediately attacked the inside of the offensive line as the right side continued to move towards the sideline, the linebacker to that side of the field was able to come back infield with him. Because Jones-Drew subtly shifted back infield and the linebacker had to plant and turn, the defender has a tougher play to make than he would have if the play had continued outside. The linebacker attempts to bring Jones-Drew down with an arm tackle, but Jones-Drew is too strong and easily breaks his tackle attempt while still moving forward at speed.
Jones-Drew is still moving forward at speed after the linebacker's failed attempt at tackling him, but he has been spun around so is now backing his way into the secondary opposed to running with vision and control. Jones-Drew takes a heavy hit from the other inside linebacker, but he is able to spin out of it even though he never saw it coming, before he continues his momentum downfield for an extra two yard gain.
This strength, low center of gravity and ability to always get forward momentum has been a staple of Jones-Drew's career. He showed no hesitation coming off his injury during his first series carrying the football.
A number of players in the league have Jones-Drew's combination of power and a similarly low center of gravity, however few have the vision that he consistently shows off and even fewer have those traits while still being an accomplished piece of the passing attack. Jones-Drew is one of the very best blockers in the league when fully healthy, but he can also be one of the best receiving options coming out of the backfield in the NFL if given the opportunity.
While the Jaguars have more receiving talent than their reputation on offense would lead you to believe, that talent is very top heavy. Marcedes Lewis, Cecil Shorts and Justin Blackmon are all good starters, but surpassed those spots on the depth chart the Jaguars are lacking any viable threats. That lack of depth is worsened by the fact that Blackmon will miss the first four games of the season through suspension. This, combined with the Jaguars' exceptionally gifted partnership at offensive tackle should allow Jones-Drew to be featured heavily as a receiver this season.
Throughout his career, Jones-Drew has accumulated 292 receptions for over 2,500 yards. He had 43 receptions, 374 yards and three receiving touchdowns during his last full 16 game season in 2011. Even though the addition of Denard Robinson as a running back should signal that Jones-Drew will have fewer opportunities as a receiver, the former Michigan quarterback hasn't proven to be a natural pass-catcher. If Jones-Drew proves his health and durability, there is little reason why Robinson should take snaps away from him in passing situations.
Following his first two runs against the Jets, the Jaguars faced a third and two with Jones-Drew in the backfield alongside Gabbert.
Gabbert immediately looks to Jones-Drew in the flat which allows David Harris to immediately put himself in position to prevent him from making a first down. Furthermore, Jones-Drew's eyes are on the quarterback and the ball is late coming to him so Harris should have an opportunity to hit the back without being seen.
Harris doesn't hit Jones or make a play on the ball as it arrives. He ultimately takes a bad angle on Jones-Drew and allows him to escape into the flat. It looks like a terrible play from the linebacker, but some credit must be given to the back who showed deceptiveness and a subtlety in his movements as he drifted away from Harris to take him out of the play.
Harris can't hit Jones-Drew, but he was still in position to make a tackle that would have prevented a first down. Much like he had done on the previous play however, Jones-Drew brushed him off with his sheer strength before accelerating down the sideline for a big gain.
Eric Stoner, of SBNation's Big Cat Country, points out that new offenisve coordinator Jedd Fisch "really wanted to establish a consistent run game" when he was at the University of Miami. That bodes well for Jones-Drew's prospects for running the ball, but Stoner also points out that "Fisch uses his backs really creatively in the passing game" which when coupled with the team's new talent on the offensive line and their lack of a true possession receiver entering the season could mean that Jones-Drew's workload could easily return to that of 2011 when he had over 370 total touches.
Of course, Jones-Drew will need to prove his health over a full season to replicate that workload and reward whatever owner drafts him. Lisfranc injuries are very serious, but the lasting effects aren't necessarily damning and there is no reason to believe that it will affect him moving forward, at least according to FootballGuys' very own Jene Bramel:
I was worried about Jones-Drew earlier this summer. He was missing his rehab goals, which I felt could be a major red flag for a player that delayed definitive treatment for a Lisfranc injury. But Jones-Drew came off the PUP list early in camp and played in the second preseason game. More importantly, he looked decisive and powerful between the tackles. Many players, including running backs, have returned successfully from Lisfranc injures. Jones-Drew looks to have put his behind him.
Of course, Jones-Drew's health isn't the only concern with him. He is approaching the dreaded 30 mark, but won't turn 29 years of age until after this season. With his running-style and compact frame, Jones-Drew is able to doll out more punishment than he receives. That may not have worked out too well for Michael Turner, but even when he was 28 he finished the season with over 1,400 total yards and 12 touchdowns. Turner never had the same individual talent as Jones-Drew has had throughout his career also. Jones-Drew is much less reliant on his long-speed or acceleration than Turner was.
Instead of viewing Jones-Drew's age as a reason not to trust him, it makes more sense to see it as the reason he becomes a value play in the second and third rounds of redraft leagues. Very few, if any, runing backs with his talent and proven track record will be available at that point in the draft. It's not like the talent around him will hold him back either, because he has consistently produced on teams with worse receiving options and without star offensive tackles to work with.
While it's still very early, the risk-reward value of Maurice Jones-Drew appears to be heavily favoring the reward side of the argument.
