Photo: Charles LeClaire, USA Today Sports

The formula for individual player success in fantasy football is relatively simple. How much talent does the individual have? Does that individual's opportunity allow his talent to turn into statistical production? If you can answer those two questions, you should be able to accurately identify successful players for the season. This passed weekend, one of those questions was emphatically answered for running back Jonathan Dwyer.

Dwyer was released by the Pittsburgh Steelers as they cut their roster down to the final 53 for the regular season. He went unclaimed on waivers and is yet to sign with another team since then.

A palpable feeling of curiousity engulfed the fantasy football world with this release. Dwyer wasn't seen as a star back by anyone, but he did carry a level of intrigue as a developing youngster in an unstable situation. Fantasy owners saw his 4.3 average per carry and an injury to LeVeon Bell to project him as a potential sleeper, while most Steelers fans saw him as a more explosive and dynamic player than Isaac Redman. Even when Redman was named as the team's starter in the place of Bell, Dwyer's potential still made him more attractive to most followers of the game.

Of course, that was before he was released. By releasing Dwyer, the Steelers emphatically decided to move forward with Redman, Bell, LaRod Stephens-Howling and Felix Jones. The fact that the Steelers chose Jones over Dwyer was the most condemning aspect of this move. Players have been released in the past and rebounded to become viable fantasy performers, but when someone like Jones who has a proven track record of failure and only spent a week or two with the team beats you out, it's a sign that the odds are completely stacked against you.

At 24 years of age, Dwyer will rear his head again in the NFL. It may be next week, it may be later in the off-season as injuries pile up or he may have to wait until next off-season, but it will happen. When it does, there is no reason to believe that Dwyer will change the course of his career.

Although he came out of college as a fullback in Georgia Tech's triple option offense, Dwyer's reputation in the NFL has been built on his ability to break off big plays. At least, relatively big plays. On 181 carries for his career, Dwyer has four 20+ attempts with just one of those going over 40 yards. He also had 21 receptions during his career, with the longest going for 15 yards.

Dwyer's celebrated explosion was largely a result of the lack of explosion around him. Anyone thinking that he had the same speed to get down the field as a Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy or even a Doug Martin were simply falling for the mirage created by comparing him to Redman, Baron Batch, Mewelde Moore or even Rashard Mendenhall. It can't be denied that he had some big plays, but when you break them down you find that they're not all that impressive.

Maybe the first eye-opening moment of Dwyer's career came back during a 2011 regular season matchup with the Tennessee Titans.

The Steelers are backed up close to their own goalline, so have come out with a heavy set. With two tight ends to the right side and a tight end to the left, Dwyer is alone in the backfield.

The Titans have beaten themselves at the snap on this play. Even though wide receiver Hines Ward is lined up on the right side of the field, where the two tight ends are as well, the Titans are blitzing their linebacker from the opposite side of the field with their free safety deep to that side also. The wide cornerback to the top of the screen is completely out of the play. He needed to be closer to the edge of the formation, pushing the linebacker inside more, or the free safety needed to push closer to the line of scrimmage to counter the running play the Steelers ultimately call.

Three Titans defenders are taken out of the play immediately. Dwyer did not take them out of the play, it was a combination of the plays each team called that took them out of the play. In other words, scheme aspects instead of personnel aspects.

The Steelers perfectly execute the four key blocks that send Dwyer into the secondary. There is not a defender in sight, so Dwyer doesn't have to break any tackles, and the lane opened up in front of him immediately, so he didn't have to make a read or wait for his blocking to develop. For the first 13-15 yards of this run, Dwyer has done nothing that separates him from a poor running back except take the handoff without fumbling it.

This is the point where Dwyer supposedly shows off his explosion to beat the incoming safety. Dwyer beats the incoming safety, at least, that's the result, but in reality it's the safety who beats himself. Dwyer doesn't accelerate or use any exceptionally deceiving action to dupe the safety. Instead, he just glides to the sideline while the safety takes a horrible angle to completely miss the tackle.

This frees Dwyer to the sideline with no defender in sight. A position from which no explosive running back would ever be caught.

Except that as soon as Dwyer is in the open field he is losing ground on Cortland Finnegan, the cornerback coming from the other side of the field. Dwyer is caught after a 76 yard gain. Statistically, still an impressive play, but in reality, the most telling part of the play was Dwyer's inability to complete a 90 yard touchdown run.

This was Dwyer's longest run of his career. His longest run of last season came against the Washington Redskins also during the regular season.

The Steelers ran a stretch play to the left side with their offense blocking zones. The Redskins reacted by bringing the edge of their defensive line across the field with the Steelers' offensive line, while outside linebacker Ryan Kerrigan motioned towards Roethlisberger to cover any play action. Dwyer showed good vision on this play as he broke back into the gap that had been created by the defense's indiscipline.

This is Dwyer's most impressive run of his career, as he breaks two tackles in the open field to extend the play down the sideine. However, he shows very little explosion and is ultimately caught from behind after getting into the open field.

Credit must be given to Dwyer for the 39 yard gain, but he was put into a position to break two tackles in the secondary because he didn't have the speed to take advantage of the space he initially found with a good read.

Dwyer's third longest run of his career, a 32 yard scamper, came just a week before. The Bengals were pressing the line of scrimmage to force a stop late in the game, which allowed Dwyer a free release into the secondary right through the middle of the defense. The deep safety, Reggie Nelson, was desperate to push Dwyer back so went for the big hit in space, allowing Dwyer to escape towards the sideline.

Again, Dwyer was in a position where he should have scored a touchdown, but was stopped well short of the endzone after being caught from behind by Leon Hall.

Those are the three most explosive plays of Dwyer's relatively short career. He never once gained more than 20 yards on his 199 other touches with the Steelers. If you remove those three big plays from Dwyer's total, his average per carry falls from 4.3 yards per carry to 3.5 yards. That number will be excused by many because of the offensive line in Pittsburgh, but one of the worst aspects of Dwyer's play is his inability to make good, quick decisions and allow his blocking to develop for him. For that reason, he cannot be excused because of any failings around him.

According to ProFootballFocus, Dwyer has forced 17 missed tackles on his 202 total touches. That's not a bad ratio, but it's essentially worthless because he doesn't have the explosion to take advantage of the space those missed tackles create and because he isn't a smart enough runner to take advantage of his blocking after breaking a tackle at the beginning or the end of a run.

Dwyer's release from the Steelers took his opportunity to be a feature back or even just a starter away. It didn't take his opporunity away completely because he could still land somewhere as a goalline back this season. However, even if he does, the chances of him excelling enough in a limited role to be a relevant fantasy piece are very unlikely. The 24-year-old has two touchdowns throughout his career and has no experience as a goalline back on the professional level.

If you're looking for a late round risk or waiver wire addition just before the start of the season, Dwyer's lack of opporunity and talent ranks him much lower than players such as Bobby Rainey, Stepfan Taylor and even the injured Dion Lewis. Some will still consider him on the same level as players such as Denard Robinson, LaMichael James, Kendall Hunter or Ben Tate in terms of talent, but the reality is he would be on a roster if he was as good as any of those players.