For the second time in less than a decade, the New England Patriots had an unforgettable off-season. However, unlike the moves that led to the Super Bowl back in 2007, what happened this off-season will be memorable for the wrong reasons. Nobody will ever forget Randy Moss' arrival in New England, just like nobody will ever forget Aaron Hernandez' release as a result of a murder charge.
While Moss and Hernandez were the headline acts, that is all that they were. In the shadow of the Moss trade, the Patriots also acquired restricted free agent Wes Welker from the Miami Dolphins. Away from the Hernandez situation off the field, the Patriots signed former St. Louis Rams wide receiver Danny Amendola to a five-year contract in free agency.
Amendola and Welker are often lumpted together for many reasons. Both followed similar paths to the Patriots. Both are primarily slot receivers. Both are white, diminutive in stature and share many of the same physical abilities. For those reasons, most believe that Amendola is the next Wes Welker and many predicted that he would sign for the Patriots this off-season as Welker's replacement.
The Patriots chose youth over production when they added Amendola, 27, instead of retaining Welker, 32, but they were also letting go of a player who had proven his durability over a much longer period with significantly more production. While Amendola and Welker are similar players, the presumption that they are exact replicas is way off.
Both have subtle, but defining differences in how they play the game. Plugging Amendola into Welker's spot on the Patriots' offense doesn't immediately give him Welker's production. In fact, Welker's spot on the Patriots' offense doesn't even really exist anymore. With Shane Vereen replacing Aaron Hernandez and Aaron Dobson, Josh Boyce and Kenbrell Thompkins filling out the wide receiving corps, the Patriots will have a very different style of offense this season.
It may sound like a backhanded compliment, but Welker's greatest attribute has always been his consistency. He has exceptional agility, soft hands, the toughness to make most linebackers envious and a very high IQ, but his ability to combine these attributes on every single snap is what makes him special. Amendola has all those traits and is a consistent player, but he's not as consistent as Welker. What Amendola loses in consistency, he looks to make up for with a greater potential for big plays.
Comparing Welker and Amendola's past statistical output isn't a fair reflection of the comparison. Amendola was his team's number one receiver more often than not, while he played with a lesser quarterback in a passing attack that was crippled by its offensive line. Welker on the other hand hasn't been the primary weapon for the Patriots, has always played in greater space and is playing with a future hall of fame quarterback behind arguably the best offensive line in the NFL.
Therefore, even though Amendola has averaged less yards per reception throughout his career, the Patriots will still feel confident in his ability to make plays down the field more often than Welker did.
Two plays in particular from last season showed off Amendola's ability to get down the field.
Against the Arizona Cardinals, on first and 10 at the Rams' 45 yard line, Amendola is lined up to the top of the screen across from Patrick Peterson. Peterson has his flaws, but his ability to run with wide receivers down the field is definintely his strength. Amendola is considered a lesser deep threat, so this matchup should favour the Cardinals.
Amendola doesn't look to engage Peterson or use his quickness to create space at the snap. Instead, he runs directly towards the sideline, starting a wheel motion that will eventually see him run parralel to the sideline.
Peterson doesn't play aggressive coverage on Amendola, which allows him to release into his route relatively easily. Instead, Peterson mirrors his movements before trying to squash down into his body at this point in the route. The cornerback is trying to get into the body of Amendola before turning to locate the football. This would allow him to locate the ball without losing track of his assignment.
Here, Amendola's size works in his favour. While he's not big, he is a physical player and that physical strength combined with his low center of gravity makes it impossible for Peterson to do what he wants to do at this point.
Critically, instead of trying to brush off the pressure from Peterson and continue in his route, Amendola lowers his head and leans into the defender.
Because of his leverage, Peterson rebounds off of Amendola slightly giving the receiver the chance to create separation down the field. At this point, Peterson is just desperately trying to catch up to Amendola and has no hope of locating the football before the receiver.
Bradford is under pressure as he lets the ball go, so instead of hitting Amendola in stride for the long touchdown, he is forced to slow down and adjust to an underthrown pass. This allows Peterson to get back into contention for the football, but the dimuntive receiver makes an outstanding one handed reception.
Before breaking down the above play, I pointed out why you can't trust the statistics when comparing Amendola and Welker's big play ability. This play further emphasizes that point as it, infamously, doesn't register in Amendola's statistics.
After battling for four quarters in San Francisco against the 49ers, the Rams believed they had won it as Amendola caught an 80 yard pass in overtime.
Alas, the play was negated for an illegal formation penalty. The reception was negated for a penalty when the offense gained an advantage, so the play shouldn't count even for analysis purposes. At least, that is one angle that can be taken, but the offensive penalty was a formation issue that didn't dramatically help Amendola or Bradford if at all.
The receiver still had to find a way to come free deep down the field at a crucial point of the game.
Amendola is again lined up to the top of the screen. The 49ers are showing a cover two look, both safeties are deep, and they ultimately drop into a zone defense with two defenders committed to Amendola. Carlos Rogers is the cornerback lined up over Amendola and he is in off coverage at the snap.
When Bradford drops back into the pocket, he immediately looks Amendola's way. Rogers has flipped his hips so he is in position to run down the sideline with Amendola, while the safety to that side of the field, Dashon Goldson, is reading the eyes of the quarterback.
When Bradford shifts his weight forward, Goldson immediately sprints towards the sideline. Amendola is running an out route that forces Rogers to flip his hips and shuffle his feet back towards the receiver. This combined with Goldson's decision to play the underneath route creates a pocket down the sideline for Amendola to run into.
Because Bradford has plenty of time in the pocket and only shifted his weight forward to pump fake, he can easily pick out Amendola down the sideline. All Amendola needs is the speed to beat Rogers after selling the out route.
After initially biting on the out route, Rogers actually does exceptionally well to keep his weight beneath him and mirror Amendola down the sideline as he turns. Alas, Rogers' quick feet don't translate into straight line speed. Amendola has the momentum as he never had to completely turn the way Rogers did and it was easier for him to look back at the football.
This makes it easier for Amendola to continue moving forward and run underneath a perfectly thrown pass from Bradford. Rogers desperately grasps at his feet to try and drag him down, but Amendola keeps his balance to keep going towards the pylon.
Had this reception counted, Amendola's average for the season last year would have risen from 10.6 yards per reception to 11.7. Of course it didn't, but it would be foolish to take away from what he did for something that didn't affect his route or the defensive backs' reaction to him.
Welker is no slouch getting down the field either, but with the benefits of the space that the Patriots offense creates, Amendola should be able to eclipse what he did in New England. In spite of that expected improvement, if Amendola is to replicate Welker's numbers, he will have to dominate in the same areas that Welker did. That means winning on underneath routes and in the intermediate area of the field when afforded favorable matchups.
No matter how much changes on the Patriots' offense this season, Amendola was signed to fill a role that is at least somewhat similar to the one Welker filled. Amendola can do everything that Welker did from a physical point of view, in fact, in some facets of the game he may be better than the departed veteran. However, it is again that consistency that comes under scrutiny.
During the 2012 season, Amendola came free on 121 of 252 qualifying routes run. That number was good enough for a 48.6 percent success rate. In other words, if the Rams threw him the ball on every single snap and he never dropped a pass, he would have caught around one pass for every two attempts. Two hundred and twelve of those routes came from the slot and Amendola's success rate increased by just .58 percent.
Those numbers aren't completely reliable because of the translation to a new scheme with a new supporting cast. Playing with Rob Gronkowski and a better all around offense will pull coverage away from Amendola, but maybe more importantly, the scheme will ask Amendola to run more shorter routes from the slot. On short routes(less than six yards) from the slot, Amendola was successful on 54 of 84 routes run. Those numbers don't only take into account single coverage or man coverage, so his results are negatively affected by double teams and zone coverages that match up well with his route.
Even if his success rate isn't overly impressive, Amendola's sheer talent was put on show repeatedly during last year.
This is a common position for Amendola to be in. The Rams often spread the field with five receivers and put Amendola on the inside of the three to one side. That didn't necessarily help him, because it brought more bodies to his side of the field.
On this occasion, it doens't matter because Amendola works towards the center of the field immediately at the snap. He has one defender looking directly at him in coverage, while the linebacker, Stephen Tulloch, to the inside is turning to face him and create a double team.
Amendola needs just two yards for the first down. After two yards down the field, he comes to a complete stop. This throws off the defensive back who is covering him while Tulloch comes towards him expecting him to turn around for the quick reception from Bradford.
Instead, Amendola plants his foot sharply into the ground and accelerates towards thte far sideline. It looks like he easily beats the double team because of his speed, but the route itself must not be undersold.
The defensive back responsible for him was completely taken out of the play when Amendola came to a complete stop because he fell back on his heels. At the same time, the linebacker took himself out of the play because he brought his momentum towards the wrong side of the field where Amendola wanted to go.
With that advantage against a slower player such as Tulloch, there was no question that Amendola was going to come free underneath before turning upfield for the first down and four extra yards.
Against the Redskins in Week 2, we got our first glimps of what is likely to become Amendola's signature move in New England. For years, Wes Welker made his living off of beating defensive backs in space when he had the option to go inside or outside(a two-way go). Welker's quickness, timing and intelligence allowed him to repeatedly make fools of defensive backs. Nobody in the league was as good in this situation as Welker.
Amendola isn't as consistent in these situations as Welker, but an argument could be made that he is better.
Much like the previous play, Amendola lines up as the inside slot receiver. However, unlike the previous play, there is a running back in the backfield and Amendola will have more space to work in after the snap.
Amendola's release off the line isn't special. He gets inside of DeAngelo Hall's press coverage, but Hall is all over him and is in position to break up any potential pass. At this point, Amendola is firmly inside of Hall and running a slant towards midfield. However, this is also the point that he plants his foot in the ground and looks to turn back towards the opposite sideline.
With Hall playing such aggressive coverage, Amendola is smart enough and agile enough to plant so that he angles back towards the line of scrimmage on his double move. This creates space for Hall to be pulled infield by his momentum, taking him completely out of the play and allowing Bradford to throw the ball to Amendola in space.
As Hall moves past Amendola, he grabs his back and pulls him. Amendola still makes the reception, but the gain is taken away as Hall is penalized for pass interference. The Rams still get the benefit because of the penalty, but the play takes away the opportunity to see just how much separation Amendola can create on these routes.
Even though he missed large portions of last season, there were still many examples of this route on show.
Against Marcus Trufant...
And against Antonio Cromartie.
His ability to shake defenders underneath will open up more intermediate routes because Amendola can use this double team move further down the field. His bravery going over the middle or running up the seam is unquestioned, so he runs this kind of route with no hesitation.
Here, Amendola is in the slot with just one receiver outside of him and one defensive back in his vicinity. D.J. Moore is the defender and he understands that he has to be aggressive in this situation because Amendola can work outside or inside.
Having quick feet is the best way to create separation in the NFL. If you can move your feet quickly to sell fakes and come out of your breaks quickly, you should always be able to find space in the NFL. On this play, it appears that Amendola uses his quick feet to sell the out route to Moore before running down the seam.
While Amendola does sell the out route, he doesn't do so with his feet. He immediately runs at Moore from the snap, but when he stops directly in front of him, he leaves his feet and turns his body to face the sideline. His feet never touch the ground however so there is no planting motion. Moore sees Amendola's feet facing the sideline, his head facing the sideline and his chest/hips facing the sideline.
Moore throws his momentum forward to aggressively play the out route, but as Amendola's feet come down he twists his body back inside so that he is running clean down the seam.
With that kind of separation, it's a simple throw for Bradford and a relatively easy 18 yard completion overall.
Because Amendola and Moore were put in more space, the defensive back had no option but to be aggressive. If he stood off, then Amendola would have had an easy reception going towards the sideline. Being on the inside makes it very difficult on defensive backs to cover both the in and the out route. When your receiver can sell that before going up the seam in one motion, it becomes almost impossible for any average defensive back to play good coverage.
Wes Welker's best season with the New England Patriots came back in 2011. He had 122 receptions, 1,569 receiving yards, nine touchdowns and started 15 games. The bar is set very high for Danny Amendola, but he definitely has the talent to not only match those numbers but even eclipse them. On the other hand, Amendola also has never handled the workload that Welker handled that season without getting injured.
Amendola has 196 receptions in total during his four year career. Welker had 449 during that same spell. For a player who has a horrible injury history and a reputation for being fragile that is very difficult to argue, it's a very large task to ask him to play 16 full games.
Is the risk worth the reward? It is, but only if you plan accordingly. If Amendola is injured, the Patriots will likely plug in Julian Edelman or Josh Boyce to directly replace him. Provided you can pick up one of those receivers late in your drafts, drafting Amendola shouldn't be considered a bad move at all.
You can follow Cian Fahey on twitter @Cianaf
