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Details:
- Lineup Lock (First Game Kickoff): 10-1-15, 7:30 PM EST
- Number of games in slate: 4 games
Miami at Cincinnati
Kickoff: 10-1-15, 7:30 PM EST
Spread: Miami -6.5
O/U: 68
Miami
Expected Team Total Points: 37.25
QB Brad Kaaya – 8,600
Analysis: Brad Kaaya is coming off of a game in which he threw for a career high 379 yards against Nebraska. Cincinnati’s pass defense got torched by Memphis last week in the first real test that the unit faced, giving up 412 passing yards. Miami’s offense is very balanced most weeks, and it should be expected that they’ll continue to remain committed to the running game, even with Kaaya continuing to evolve as a passer.
Recommendation: Kaaya should have a solid day passing against the porous Cincinnati defense. He’s an extremely safe selection with a high floor, but probably doesn’t have the upside of other quarterbacks in this slate due to Miami’s ability to both run and pass the ball effectively.
RB Joseph Yearby – 8,100
Analysis: Yearby has run for at least 100 yards in each of Miami’s last two games. He shares the backfield with Mark Walton, but is clearly the top option for the Hurricanes. Cincinnati’s defense got gashed on the ground by Temple and Ball State before Memphis largely chose to shred them through the air.
Recommendation: Yearby is one of the two highly priced running backs in this slate. He’s yet to receive 20 carries in a game this season, but has been extremely productive with his touches, averaging 7.6 yards per carry. Yearby is a good bet to go over 100 yards on Thursday, but we prefer Jahad Thomas if you are choosing between the two, due to the volume that Thomas has been consistently seeing. Yearby makes for a fine option if you can’t fit Thomas into your lineup.
WR Rashawn Scott – 7,000
Analysis: By this point, Scott has established himself as Brad Kaaya’s clear one receiver. He has two 100 yard games to his credit so far in 2015 and should continue to find success against the porous Cincinnati secondary. Herb Waters has had back to back nice games and is up to 194 yards receiving on the year. His emergence was initially largely due to Miami losing Stacy Coley and Braxton Berrios to injury, but he’s clearly carved out a role going forward in this offense. With that being said, Berrios is returning to game action this week, and it’s yet to be seen what impact that will have on Waters’s target allocation.
Recommendation: Scott is the highest priced receiver in this slate and should have a solid day. We definitely recommend that you prioritize spending on quarterback and running back, but if you have cash leftover, Scott makes for a nice option.
Cincinnati
Expected Team Total Points: 30.75
QB Hayden Moore – 8,500
Analysis: Hayden Moore will be starting this week, with Gunner Kiel already officially ruled out. Last week in relief of Kiel, Moore threw for 557 yards and four touchdowns. That performance was against a horrific Memphis defense that is now allowing 338 yards per game. Miami has one of the most talented defensive backfields in the country and is only giving up 167 yards per game. That being said, Miami gave up 309 yards through the air to Tommy Armstrong and Nebraska in their last game, with the majority of that coming late in the game while Nebraska was playing catch up. It wouldn’t be surprising if this game follows a similar script, with Moore having to throw often to try to keep Cincinnati in the game.
Recommendation: We’re projecting Moore for the second most fantasy points amongst quarterbacks in this slate. The matchup is a tough one - making his first start against a ranked team - but Moore will be throwing plenty, and should be able to put together a solid game as a result. Similarly priced Brad Kaaya is probably a safer option, but we like Moore’s combination of floor and upside.
WR Shaq Washington – 6,300 WR Max Morrison 6,000 WR Alex Chisum – 4,900
Analysis: Cincinnati receivers Johnny Holton and Chris Moore are both questionable for this game, and neither practiced Monday. Big play threat Mekale McKay still seems to be getting up to speed from an injury he suffered earlier in the year, as he’s been scarce in the team’s game plan to this point. Max Morrison had the best game of his career last week against Memphis, catching nine passes for 162 yards and a two touchdowns. Shaq Washington largely operates as a possession receiver, catching screens or short passes. Alex Chisum caught five passes for 77 yards last week and would likely step into a larger role if Holton and Moore are ruled out.
Recommendation: Washington will see the most targets of any Cincy receiver most weeks, but since they’re mostly close to the line of scrimmage, it’s tougher for him to score or post high yardage totals. We don’t see him as one of the better values in this slate. Morrison has seen a big bump in price following last week’s breakout. Because Cincinnati spreads the ball around so much, we’re not recommending Morrison for cash games. He makes sense in tournaments though and it will be interesting to see if his chemistry with Hayden Moore carries over to this week. Chisum is the cheapest of any of the Cincinnati receiving options and would be a good punt option if we get word about the status of the Bearcats’ injured receivers.
Temple at Charlotte
Kickoff: 10-2-15, 7:00 PM EST
Spread: Temple -23.5
O/U: 48
Temple
Expected Team Total Points: 35.75
QB P.J. Walker – 8,300
Analysis: P.J .Walker is coming off one of the best game of his career, throwing for 391 yards against Massachusetts. Prior to that game, Walker had not thrown for over 300 yards since 2013. This outburst was likely a product of Temple being in a close game and not having success running the football. This Friday’s game is not expected to be close, as the Owls are favored by 23.5 points. Temple should have no problem scoring against a Charlotte defense that just two weeks ago allowed 73 points to Middle Tennessee State – the concern is that they won’t have to overly rely on Walker’s right arm to do so.
Recommendation: This game should be a blowout and with Temple often choosing to rely on the running game when possible, it’s unlikely that Walker has a huge game. The chance that Temple could choose to feature Walker against this lesser opponent makes him worth consideration for tournaments, but the other similarly priced quarterback options in this slate make better cash game selections.
RB Jahad Thomas – 8,800
Analysis: Thomas has been practically the entire Temple rushing attack this season. He’s seen at least 25 carries in every game, and if you take away quarterback P.J. Walker’s 18 carries, Thomas has received 80 of the team’s 98 carries. On the surface, the matchup looks tough as Charlotte has only allowed 3.4 yards per carry. However, that average benefits largely from facing Georgia State, who largely focuses on the passing game and is terrible at running the football, and Presbyterian, an FCS opponent. Coach Matt Rhule stated that he wasn’t happy with Temple’s ineffectiveness running the ball in their last game against Massachusetts and expectation is that the Owls will look to re-establish the running game this week.
Recommendation: Jahad Thomas is undoubtedly one of the top two options at running back this week, with Joseph Yearby being the other. He shouldn’t have a problem surpassing the 100 yard barrier and will likely score at least once. We have him projected as our top overall fantasy point scorer in this slate.
WR Robby Anderson – 6,300
Analysis: Robby Anderson hasn’t quite been the explosive receiver he was in 2013, the last time he played college football, when he caught 44 passes for 791 yards in the team’s final eight games. He left the school prior to the 2014 season, but re-enrolled and is once again leading Temple’s top receiver, with 12 catches for 112 yards in 2015. Those numbers may not be overly impressive, but it’s been apparent watching him that early on it was challenging re-adjusting to game speed.
Recommendation: Anderson is priced as if he’s playing like the 2013 version of himself, and while he could have a big game against Charlotte, he’s done little so far in 2015 to justify this price tag. We only recommend him in tournaments.
Charlotte
Expected Team Total Points: 12.25
RB Kalif Philips – 5,700 WR Austin Duke – 5,100
Analysis: Kalif Philips is the Charlotte workhorse running back but should find little room to run this week against a Temple defense that only allows 3.0 yards per carry and 85 rush yards per game. With quarterback Matt Johnson ruled out with a concussion, there’s little reason for Temple to respect the passing game, as back-up Lee McNeil only completed 11-31 passes and threw four interceptions last week. Austin Duke had a great first two weeks, but with Matt Johnson struggling two weeks and leaving with injury last week, Duke’s production has greatly diminished – he’s only caught five passes for 27 yards total in that time after producing 271 yards in Charlotte’s first two games.
Recommendation: Duke and Philips are both priced cheaply, which makes it tempting to use them. The matchup though is dreadful and the quarterback situation at Charlotte could potentially result in Charlotte being unable to move the ball whatsoever this week. For these reasons, we recommend not using either in cash games.
Memphis at USF
Kickoff: 10-2-15, 7:00 PM EST
Spread: Memphis -8.5
O/U: 62
Memphis
Expected Team Total Points: 35.25
QB Paxton Lynch – 9,500
Analysis: Lynch has been one of the most consistent quarterbacks so far this season, throwing for at least 350 yards and two touchdowns in each of Memphis’s last three games. He now gets to face a defense that allowed Maryland’s Caleb Rowe to throw for 297 yards and four scores. Memphis should be looking to impress voters every opportunity they get, as they attempt to improve their standing for the Group of Five berth in the New Year’s Six bowl games. Lynch should have no trouble breaking the 300 yard threshold once again, this week.
Recommendation: Lynch is the best combination of floor and upside in this slate. While he isn’t cheap, he’s the ideal building block for your cash game lineup, and is our top projected quarterback.
RB Sam Craft – 6,200 WR Mose Frazier 7,400
Analysis: Memphis spreads the ball as much as any offense in the country. Through four games, they’ve had four players rush for touchdowns and seven different players have been on the receiving end of scores. Mose Frazier is creatively involved in the offense, is utilized both in a running and receiving capacity, and the same can be said about Sam Craft who lines up in the backfield more often than he does as a receiver. Craft is up to five total touchdowns on the year, while Frazier has amassed four of his own.
Recommendation: While Frazier and Craft are the two most productive options among Memphis’s running backs and receivers, they simply don’t receive enough touches to justify their prices. The only way that they’re likely to hit value is by scoring multiple touchdowns, which isn’t a smart gamble considering this offense. We prefer utilizing other players in this slate that are either priced more affordably, or should be looking at a larger share of their team’s targets.
TE Alan Cross – 2,900
Analysis: Alan Cross caught his first touchdown of the season last week and has now caught at least two passes, and no more than three, in each of the team’s first three games. The 13 touchdowns he’s scored in his career highlight that Memphis looks for him in the red zone.
Recommendation: Cross is not going to put up a difference making performance for you at tight end, but if you have extra cash to spend on the position, he is the best bet of any option in this slate to score a touchdown. You’re probably better off conserving your resources and paying up at other positions.
USF
Expected Team Total Points: 26.75
QB Quinton Flowers – 7,000
Analysis: With South Florida likely to be playing from behind in this game, responsibility to move the offense will fall largely on the shoulders of Quinton Flowers. To the point he has only thrown for a total of 326 yards in three games, but has run for 186 yards as well. The Memphis passing defense has given up back to back huge passing games to Bowling Green and Cincinnati, but no one is going to suddenly mistake Quinton Flowers for an adept thrower.
Recommendation: Flowers will need to have a big day with his legs in order to hit value this week. While it’s certainly possible he runs for 100 yards and a score or two, Memphis was able to contain similarly mobile Kansas quarterback, Montell Cozart, only allowing him to run for 18 yards when the two teams met. The possibility also exists that Flowers is pulled at some point due to ineffectiveness, as he was against Maryland when back-up Steven Bench was briefly put in at quarterback. If South Florida is going to compete in this game, it will be because Flowers has success. The more likely scenario is that this game becomes a blowout though, and we see Flowers more as an option for tournaments than cash games this week.
RB Marlon Mack – 6,000
Analysis: Marlon Mack is far and away South Florida’s most talented skill player. He rushed for 1,041 yards last season as a freshman and has amassed 285 yards on the ground so far this year. Memphis has only allowed one 100 yard rusher so far this year - against Kansas in a game in which the Tigers surprisingly found themselves trailing early, allowing Kansas to commit to the run game longer than expected.
Recommendation: The fear here isn’t so much that Mack won’t have room to run against Memphis, so much as South Florida will fall behind early and will feel pressure to throw more than they would like. In each of South Florida’s last two games, against Florida State and Maryland, this is exactly what happened, with Mack receiving 18 and 12 carries in those two contests, respectively. At his price point of 6,000 though, Mack represents good value, even if he only gets around 15 touches. Beyond Jahad Thomas and Joseph Yearby, finding guaranteed production at running back is a difficult task in this slate.
UConn at BYU
Kickoff: 10-2-15, 10:15 PM EST
Spread: BYU -18.5
O/U: 45.5
UConn
Expected Team Total Points: 13.5
TE Tommy Myers – 2,000
Analysis: Tommy Myers has caught only four passes so far this season, but he’s made them count, amassing 103 yards and scoring twice. Coach Bob Diaco has professed a desire to involve tight ends heavily in the UConn offense, and while it hasn’t happened to this point, the Pro-Style system he runs does lend itself to tight end usage.
Recommendation: Myers is our favorite punt at tight end this week. None of the tight ends in this slate are heavily involved in their teams’ game plan, so even if Myers doesn’t produce, choosing him shouldn’t back fire too badly.
BYU
Expected Team Total Points: 32
QB Tanner Mangum – 8,100
Analysis: Tanner Mangum had a horrific showing last weekend against Michigan, only throwing for 55 yards in BYU’s 31-0 loss to Michigan. Michigan is shaping up as one of the better defenses in the country, and Mangum already had solid showings against UCLA and Boise State, so we won’t hold this one horrific performance too heavily against him. BYU’s running back unit has been decimated by injuries, so it’s likely that the Cougars will lean heavily on Mangum’s right arm to move the ball. Though UConn is only allowing 125 passing yards per game so far in 2015, the Huskies have faced two option teams (Army and Navy), an FCS opponent (Villanova), and Missouri – who has looked extremely dysfunctional on offense.
Recommendation: Mangum is priced very similarly to Brad Kaaya and Hayden Moore, both of whom we prefer to him. There’s not much reason to use Mangum in this slate, other than as a contrarian GPP option.
RB Francis Bernard – 4,500
Analysis: Nate Carter has the most experience of the running backs that are likely to suit up on Friday, but he has not played well this year, only rushing for 22 yards on 16 carries. Beat writers and team sites don’t seem very confident in Carter stepping into a starting role. After breaking his hand in fall camp, freshman running back Francis Bernard made his debut last week, rushing for 30 yards on four carries. He likely wouldn’t be a threat for playing time, but with Jamaal Williams out for the year and Adam Hine and Algernon Brown likely to miss this week’s game, Bernard is shaping up as the likely choice to lead the team in carries. Head Coach Bronco Mendenhall had this to say about Bernard following the Michigan game: “I like him a lot. I think he’s tough. I think he’s physical. I think he can block. I think he can catch the ball out of the backfield, and I think he can run it. So he’s really versatile and his role will increase.” Bernard also checks in at 6’1” 235 pounds, so he theoretically make a great goal line option.
Recommendation: Bernard is priced at the minimum and is an excellent dart throw in GPPs. He’ll allow you the roster flexibility to fit construct the remainder of your roster however you see fit.
WR Mitch Mathews – 6,500 WR Mitchell Juergens – 6,200
Analysis: BYU has a multitude of receivers that see targets, but Mathews offers the most consistent game to game production. He leads the team in catches and touchdowns this year and has caught at least one pass in 28 straight games. Mitchell Juergens leads BYU in receiving yards with 250, but 172 of those yards came in the game against Boise State, and he hasn’t been very productive in the other three contests.
Analysis: BYU should have far greater success throwing the ball against UConn than they did against Michigan last week. If you can afford Mathews, he offers one of the safer floors of any receiver in this slate, especially in a PPR format. BYU’s other receivers, including Devon Blackmon and Nick Kurtz, are largely lottery tickets who could either have a big game, or be a non-factor this week.