Details:
- Entry Deadline (Lineup Lock): 9-17-15, 7:30 PM EST
- Number of games in slate: 3 games
Clemson at Louisville
Kickoff: 9-17-15, 7:30 PM EST
Spread: Clemson -7
O/U: 54
Clemson
Expected Team Total Points: 30.5
Deshaun Watson – 9,300
Analysis: Deshaun Watson has yet to be tested over the season’s first two weeks, only playing one total series in the second half of games against Wofford and Appalachian State. Watson has been very efficient so far this season, completing 37 of his 48 pass attempts for 442 yards and five touchdowns. The rushing statistics have not been there so far, as he has only ran for 39 yards, but the team has likely instructed him to be discerning in these first two contests against lesser opponents, especially considering that he tore his ACL last November. Watson averaged 35 rushing yards per game in starts against ACC opponents last year, and we expect that he’ll be turned loose this week against Louisville. Though Watson lost his favorite target, Mike Williams, to injury in the season opener, Clemson’s receiving corps should not be a concern for Watson’s production. Artavis Scott, Charone Peake, Deon Cain, and Ray-Ray McCloud represent more than enough talent and production to ensure that Watson will not struggle to find open receivers. The Lousville defense that Watson will be throwing against just gave up 236 yards and three scores through the air to Houston quarterback Greg Ward. While Ward is a great athlete, he’s nowhere near the passer that Watson is. A 300 yard passing day should be expected from Watson in this game.
Recommendation: We have Watson projected as our top scoring quarterback. In this slate, in which the cheaper quarterback options are extremely risky, and we recommend going with one of the two highest priced quarterbacks (Bercovici or Watson).
Wayne Gallman – 6,700
Analysis: Gallman has yet to go over 100 yards rushing this season, but like Watson; he has played very sparingly in the second half of both games. For the time that the Clemson starters have been on the field, Gallman has been the clear top running back, receiving 14 of the 25 running back carries against Wofford, and 15 of the 22 running back carries against Appalachian State. The Louisville defense has been very soft against the run in the early going, though they have faced two teams that are exceedingly strong at running the football. Both Auburn and Houston have had running backs go for more than one hundred yards against Louisville, and Houston quarterback Greg Ward added an additional 98 yards on the ground. With Deshaun Watson representing the best passer that the Cardinals defense will have faced so far in 2015, Louisville won’t be stacking the box against Gallman. A huge game probably should not be expected, but Gallman is a good bet to see at least 15 touches on Thursday.
Recommendation: Gallman is one of the safer running back options in this slate in terms of projected volume, and his price reflects this. While he doesn’t have the upside of other running backs, at 6,700, he warrants consideration as the starting running back in an offense that should have little trouble moving the ball Thursday.
Artavis Scott – 6,800
Analysis: With Mike Williams sidelined for the foreseeable future, Artavis Scott will operate as Deshaun Watson’s top receiver. Scott sees a ton of targets in the short to intermediate range, and possesses the speed and athleticism to turn those targets into long gains. Scott caught six balls in each of the first two games this season and ended 2014 with at least seven catches in seven of the final nine games in which he played. Scott has the highest floor of any receiver in this slate.
Recommendation: Scott is the second most expensive receiver, but in a half PPR format, he’s not one of the better values in this slate. If you’re using less expensive players at other positions, Scott makes sense as a player with a high floor, but there are cheaper receivers who should return comparable value.
Charone Peake – 5,800
Analysis: Last week against Appalachian State, Charone Peake stepped up in Mike Williams’ absence, catching four passes for 86 yards and two scores. Peake has been a very streaky player throughout his Clemson career. This can partially be blamed both on the depth that Clemson has historically had at the wide receiver spot, as well as Peake’s unfortunate injury history - he tore his ACL two games into 2013 and missed six more games in 2014 with knee issues. That being said, Peake has never had an opportunity to be the number two option in the passing game before and it was a good sign that he was able to take advantage of this chance against Appalachian State. He has nowhere near the safe floor of Artavis Scott, but Peake’s upside makes him absolutely relevant in a mid-week slate.
Recommendation: Peake is priced moderately in this slate and makes a great GPP target because of his role in the offense. At 5,800, because he will likely need to score to hit value, he’s not an ideal cash game option.
Louisville
Expected Team Total Points: 23.5
Kyle Bolin – 5,700 Lamar Jackson – 6,900
Analysis: Louisville has played multiple quarterbacks in each of its first two games. In its first game against Auburn, Reggie Bonnafon started and gave way to Lamar Jackson. Then, last week against Houston, Jackson started before being relieved by Kyle Bolin in the fourth quarter. Bobby Petrino has yet to name a starter for this week, though he has said he believes he knows who will start. Lamar Jackson would be the best option from a fantasy perspective because of his running ability, but Bolin is most likely going to get the start, as he performed well against Houston, leading the team to two fourth quarter touchdown drives.
Recommendation: Even if Bolin gets the start, he will be facing one of the best pass defenses in the country. Clemson allowed 162 passing yards per game in 2014 – the third lowest average in the FBS. In 2015, the Tigers have only allowed 183 total passing yards. There’s very little upside, and a ton of risk, here in what will be an extremely difficult matchup.
Brandon Radcliff – 6.700
Analysis: Radcliff has not gotten off to a great start this year, only receiving 10 carries against Houston and 17 carries against Auburn. Running quarterbacks, Reggie Bonnafon and Lamar Jackson, have taken carries from Radcliff, and game flow has not been on Louisville’s side either. Radcliff will continue to lead the Cardinals in carries, and if Kyle Bolin does indeed start this week, that will be an upgrade to Radcliff’s stock. Bolin is a pocket passer whose throwing ability will command more respect than that of Louisville’s other quarterbacks. Though Clemson only surrendered 3.6 yards per carry to Wofford and Appalachian State, they did give up 326 yards rushing in those two games. Game flow will likely not be on Louisville’s side in this one, but we’re still expecting a much better effort from Radcliff than the 43 yard performance last week.
Recommendation: Radcliff has the same price tag as Wayne Gallman, and while Gallman has looked better this season and probably has a higher floor, Radcliff has the better matchup and will likely play a larger role in his offense’s game plan. The masses will likely gravitate toward Gallman, but Radcliff represents a great contrarian opportunity. Our projection system has Radcliff outscoring Gallman by roughly two fantasy points this week.
Ja’quay Savage – 5,800
Analysis: James Quick and Jamari Staples have already been ruled out for this Thursday. Savage stepped up with seven catches for 79 yards and a score last week and should serve as Louisville’s top receiving threat. The four star transfer from Texas A&M certainly has the talent to making a lasting impact, and now also has the opportunity. The issue here is that there is a good chance that Savage will see a lot of coverage from preseason third-team All-American Mackensie Alexander.
Recommendation: Savage’s tough matchup, unproven track record, and price make him an unattractive option in this slate.
Micky Crum – 3,500 Charles Standberry - 2,000
Analysis: Last week, Micky Crum put up one of the best tight end lines of 2015, catching six balls for 103 yards and a touchdown. Meanwhile, Charles Standberry turned in his second straight one catch performance.
Recommendation: The uncertainty at quarterback makes Crum unplayable at his price tag of 3,500. Standberry is the tight end we recommend if you want to go with a minimum priced option. He lines up at both tight end and receiver, and Coach Petrino has even gone so far to refer to him as a “true H-back.” It’s unlikely he has a really big day, but with James Quick and Jamari Staples sidelined, Standberry might see more of a role in the passing game than usual this week.
Florida State at Boston College
Kickoff: 9-18-15, 8:00 PM EST
Spread: Florida State -7.5
O/U: 51
Florida State
Expected Team Total Points: 29.25
Everett Golson – 8,300
Analysis: Golson was absolutely abysmal last week against South Florida, and Florida State had to rely almost entirely on Dalvin Cook in order to secure victory. Golson has shown in his time at Notre Dame that he’s capable of big games, as well as going through stretches in which he plays very poorly. Whereas last year’s Florida State team relied heavily on Jameis Winston’s arm, expect this year’s team to follow the trend from its first two games of emphasizing the running game.
Recommendation: Golson is priced at a slight discount relative to the top quarterbacks, Mike Bercovici and Deshaun Watson. However, in a game that both teams will emphasize the run, and generally play at a slow tempo, even if Golson plays well this week he’s unlikely to approach the fantasy output of Watson and Bercovici.
Dalvin Cook – 8,900
Analysis: Cook is coming off of a monster game last week against South Florida, rushing for 266 yards and three touchdowns. It’s clear that he’s the focal point of the offense and Florida State showed very little faith in Everett Golson. Florida State will undoubtedly look to ride Cook yet again this week. While it’s unlikely Boston College will be able to completely slow down Cook, a repeat performance should not be expected. The Eagles defense returns six starters, including three defensive linemen from a squad that gave up the fourth lowest rush yards per game average in 2014. Through two games in 2015, granted, against FCS competition, Boston College has only allowed a total of 14 yards rushing.
Recommendation: Using Cook in your lineup will essentially force you to use one to two fewer studs then you would otherwise. If the matchup was good, or even average, he’d likely be a must play, but Boston College poses one of the tougher tests Cook will face this season. We prefer the roster flexibility is gained by using other running back options.
Boston College
Expected Team Total Points: 21.75
Darius Wade – 7,200
Analysis: We’ve seen very little of what Wade can actually do on the field because Boston College has run the ball so much in its first two games against FCS opponents. While we don’t know what to expect from Wade as a passer, Wade’s running ability is not in question. It’s apparent from his high school tape and practice reports that Wade can run the ball very well. However, expect Boston College’s game plan on Friday to revolve largely around establishing the run with its stable of tailbacks.
Recommendation: Wade isn’t an option this week as he’s priced far above the minimum and is very unlikely to have a solid fantasy performance.
Tyler Rouse – 7,000 Jon Hilliman – 5,400
Analysis: The Boston College backfield tandem has been highly efficient in limited action against lesser competition to start the year, combining for six touchdowns on just 33 carries. The matchup against Florida State does not look overly menacing after watching South Florida’s Marlon Mack find success on the ground against the Seminoles, rushing for 83 yards on 18 carries last Saturday. The real dilemma is how carries will be distributed between these two running backs. Jon Hilliman entered the year as the favorite to lead the backfield in touches, but has only averaged 3.8 yards per carry in 2015, and also did not see a touch until Rouse had already scored two touchdowns last week. Hilliman is still most likely going to be the running back to lead the backfield in touches. He’s built much more like a lead running back, weighing 224 pounds compared to the 194 that Rouse checks in at. Still, Rouse has performed well enough that he will likely see a fair share of carries. The real issue here is that Boston College’s offensive line, which returned zero starters from 2014, has yet to be truly tested this season.
Recommendation: Rouse is unplayable at his price of 7,000, but Hilliman is an interesting tournament option at 5,400. At that price, he represents the cheapest option who could realistically see 20 carries. Of course, the matchup is difficult, and we’ve yet to see how carries will be divided in a game against a competent opponent. This uncertainty has us staying away from Hilliman in cash games, but as we saw in his freshman season during which he received at least 20 carries five times, Boston College trusts Hilliman to carry the load when things are going well.
New Mexico at Arizona State
Kickoff: 9-18-15, 10:00 PM EST
Spread: Arizona State -28
O/U: 65.5
New Mexico
Expected Team Total Points: 18.75
Lamar Jordan – 5,800 Austin Apodaca – 4,500
Analysis: Both quarterbacks have seen time in the Lobos’ first two games this season. While Lamar Jordan will continue to start at quarterback, Apodaca will substitute in throughout as the game as an option when the team is looking for more of an aerial threat. New Mexico quarterbacks have historically run the ball less than other triple option offenses – a Lobo quarterback has only rushed for over 100 yards twice in the team’s last 14 games.
Recommendation: Considering how much trouble Arizona State had with the triple option last week against Cal Poly, Jordan is an option in GPPs. He’s very risky, but if he were to account for a couple of scores, he’d justify his price while allowing you your pick of other players within the slate.
Teriyon Gipson – 5,000 Jhurell Pressley – 5,500
Analysis: Jhurell Pressley is the starting running back in this triple option offense, but is far from the only runner to see a material amount of carries. Pressley has had a tough time turning his carries into production so far. Most of his touches come via the ‘dive play’ but beat writer Rick Wright has noted that after two games, New Mexico has had trouble blocking in the middle of its offensive line. Teriyon Gipson missed New Mexico’s first game with a meniscus injury, but returned last week with nine carries for 71 yards and two touchdowns. While Gipson is technically Pressley’s back-up, he additionally sees time at slot back and sees pitches, passes, as well as standard running plays.
Recommendation: Both Pressley and Gipson are purely GPP plays, as neither can be trusted to receive more than 10-15 touches. Pressley has the edge in terms of potential because of the multitude of ways in which he sees touches.
Dameon Gamblin – 4,500
Analysis: Dameon Gamblin had the best game of his career last week, catching eight passes for 131 yards and a touchdown, while also rushing four times for 42 yards. New Mexico does not throw the ball often, but when they do, Gamblin is usually the receiver targeted. Gamblin has 11 receptions on the year, while the team’s next closest receiver has three. Gamblin also serves as a pitchman in this triple option offense on occasion, and has six carries for 53 yards this season.
Recommendation: If you need a minimum priced option in order to fit in some higher priced players, Gamblin is one of your best bets. Even though he’s the number one receiving option for New Mexico, the nature of this offense and uncertainty surrounding the amount of targets he will see, highlights how low his floor actually is.
Arizona State
Expected Team Total Points: 46.75
Mike Bercovici – 9,500
Analysis: Bercovici has yet to put up eye popping stats in line with his cameo last season, but there’s a strong chance that changes this week. Though when these two teams met last season, Arizona State quarterbacks only threw for 198 yards, that Sun Devils team was much surer of its identity and strengths. Arizona State knows that if it is going to compete once PAC-12 play begins, Bercovici and the passing game will need to be far more effective than they have been to this point. The outcome of this game against New Mexico should not be in doubt, and it makes sense that Arizona State will use this opportunity to sharpen the aerial attack.
Recommendation: Bercovici and Watson are the top two options at quarterback in this slate. While our projections slightly prefer Watson, New Mexico poses such a minimal threat of completely shutting down Bercovici that it’s arguable that the Arizona State quarterback has the highest floor in this slate. We recommend having exposure to both him and Watson.
Demario Richard – 7,800 D.J. Foster – 7,600
Analysis: Demario Richard and D.J. Foster will see the most touches of the Arizona State running backs and receivers. Richard has operated as the team’s primary running back, receiving 41 carries through two games. He scored two touchdowns last week and should be a lock for close to 100 yards and a score once again. Foster, last year’s starting running back, is utilized in multiple different roles in this offense. He’ll line up at receiver on most plays and is the team’s leading receiver in receptions and yardage through two games. However, Foster will also shift into the backfield and take handoffs, rushing 15 times for 89 yards so far this year. He’s the most dangerous weapon in this offense and Arizona State knows it needs to get him touches.
Recommendation: Richard and Foster are both great plays in this slate. Though Richard is the second highest priced running back and Foster is the most expensive receiver, both can be worked into lineups with relative ease. If you have to choose one, we recommend going with Richard, as running back has less viable options to choose from than receiver.
Devin Lucien – 4,900
Analysis: Devin Lucien came to Arizona State via UCLA for 2015 via the graduate transfer provision. While he was just a face in the crowd at UCLA, after two games it looks like Lucien could be on his way to stepping up as one of Mike Bercovici’s favorite targets, catching seven passes for 79 yards last week.
Recommendation: We project Lucien for five catches and 58 yards this week, which would be a solid return on such an affordable player. He’s unlikely to have a huge game, but Lucien should see targets and be a material part of the team’s game plan.
Kody Kohl – 2,900
Analysis: Kody Kohl has caught five passes 48 yards in Arizona State’s first two games, scoring in each game as well. Arizona State has a lack of proven pass catchers and the team has been using Kohl as a receiver far more than in 2014, during which he caught 16 total passes.
Recommendation: Kohl should be good for a few catches this week, but unless he scores, you are going to regret paying up for him. He’s our top tight end option in terms of projected points, though we wouldn’t recommend building your roster around the objective of fitting him in.
