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Details:
- Entry Deadline (Lineup Lock): 9-10-15, 8:00 PM EST
- Number of games in slate: 3 games
Louisiana Tech at Western Kentucky
Kickoff: 8:00 PM EST
Spread: Louisiana Tech -1
O/U: 62
Western Kentucky
Expected Team Total Points: 30.5
Brandon Doughty – 9,000
Analysis: Brandon Doughty is coming off of a very subpar performance by his standards, only throwing for 209 yards and one touchdown in the season opener. Awaiting Doughty this week is the defense against which he had his worst performance of 2014, only throwing for 134 yards to go along with four interceptions. Louisiana Tech blitzed Doughty repeatedly during last season’s encounter and the same should be expected on Thursday. Additionally, Louisiana Tech returns All C-USA First Team safety Xavier Woods and his defensive backfield teammates Kentrell Brice and Adairius Barnes, both of whom were named All C-USA Honorable Mentions.
Recommendation: Doughty is the most expensive quarterback option, but can still be easily fit into lineups this week. Despite his struggles against Louisiana Tech last year, we project him to put up the most fantasy points amongst the quarterbacks in this slate. You’ll want exposure to Doughty in your lineups, but make sure you diversify at quarterback in case Doughty unexpectedly has another awful outing against the Bulldogs.
Leon Allen – 8,200
Analysis: Going into Western Kentucky’s first game last week, there were concerns over whether Leon Allen would be suspended. In the end though, Allen played the entire game and though he only rushed for 56 yards on 15 carries, the entire WKU offense struggled in what was a slow paced, defensive affair. Louisiana Tech returns two defensive linemen from a defense that held opponents to the 16th lowest yards per carry rate in 2014, and held Allen to only 76 yards rushing on 14 carries when the two teams met last year. It’s exceedingly unlikely that this game is a repeat of last year’s, in which WKU lost 59-10 largely due to Doughty’s inability to deal with the blitz, and Allen should be in for a much bigger game if this one stays close.
Recommendation: Allen’s price is reasonable considering his talent, upside, and role in the offense that keeps him involved even if WKU falls behind. This slate is one in which it pays to spend on running back instead of receiver, and Allen is a solid building block for your lineup.
Jared Dangerfield – 7,200
Analysis: It sounds like Dangerfield is still not fully recovered from his hamstring injury that severely limited his snaps last week against Vanderbilt. While Coach Brohm offered optimism about Dangerfield playing this week, nothing is definitive.
Recommendation: Dangerfield is unplayable at this price.
Tyler Higbee – 3,700
Analysis: Higbee was Western Kentucky’s leading receiver last week, totaling 102 yards on four catches with a touchdown against Vanderbilt. Louisiana Tech is breaking in an entirely new group of linebackers this year, as none of their 2014 starters are back with the team. It’s probably not accurate to call Higbee the top target in this offense, but WKU actively looks to get him involved, which is far more than what can be said about most tight ends at the collegiate level.
Recommendation: Higbee offers both the highest floor and highest upside of the tight ends, but also carries the highest price. We recommend playing him if you can fit him in your lineup.
Taywan Taylor – 6,300 Antwane Grant – 5,200 Nicholas Norris – 4,500
Analysis: Western Kentucky lived up to its billing in its season opener as an offense that spreads the wealth, with no receiver catching more than five balls. While we should assume that the passing game will be far more successful going forward than it was against Vanderbilt, the tertiary receivers in this offense should continue to find targets hard to come by, especially with Jared Dangerfield continuing to progress in his recovery from a hamstring injury that limited him opening night.
Recommendation: These guys are nothing more than lottery tickets at this stage and should be viewed strictly as contrarian plays.
Louisiana Tech
Expected Team Total Points: 31.5
Jeff Driskel – 8,000
Analysis: We’ve only seen Jeff Driskel play one half of one game so far in a Louisiana Tech uniform, against an FCS level opponent nonetheless. He dominated in that brief appearance though, throwing four touchdowns and 274 yards and four touchdowns on only 15 pass attempts. The expectation this week is that WKU will be making it a priority to contain Kenneth Dixon, which should open up the passing game for Driskel. It also helps that he’ll be throwing against a pass defense that gave up on average 272 yards per game in 2014. Even though Driskel only rushed three times against Southern, Coach Skip Holtz confirmed that there were packages that were not unleashed in the season opener. Expect the running ability that Driskel demonstrated while at Florida to be on display more this week.
Recommendation: We project Driskel as the best quarterback value on the basis of ‘Projected Points Per Dollar.’ While we do not consider him as safe a play as Doughty, he should offer similar upside in this shootout, at a discount that allows you to upgrade elsewhere. We recommend that you have exposure in tournaments.
Kenneth Dixon – 8,700
Analysis: Kenneth Dixon is one the best running backs in the country, is utilized in both the running and passing game, and is playing in a game that is likely to be an absolute shootout. While Western Kentucky will undoubtedly game plan to load the box and slow him down, no ‘Group of Five’ team has held Dixon to 85 total yards or less since 2013. He’s also scored at least one touchdown in every game he’s played in since the beginning of 2014. It’s safe to expect another rock solid effort from Dixon this week, against a defense that was one of the worst against the run last season and allowed 168 rush yards against Vanderbilt last week.
Recommendation: Dixon is an extremely safe play this week. Put him in your lineup and build from there.
Paul Turner – 5,300 Trent Taylor – 6,200
Analysis: Paul Turner and Trent Taylor are clearly the top two receiving options in this offense. Eight of starting quarterback Jeff Driskel’s 15 passes were targeted at this duo, with Turner seeing five balls, snagging three, while Taylor caught all three of the passes thrown his way. Turner, an LSU transfer, was banged up for much of 2014, missing two games with an IT band issue that nagged him throughout the season. Taylor proved to be the team’s most reliable option last season, leading the team with 64 catches. Western Kentucky will certainly focus its efforts largely on stopping Kenneth Dixon, which should leave ample opportunity for Taylor and Turner to exploit a pass defense that was one of the worst in the FBS last season. Also working in the favor of Louisiana Tech receivers, WKU’s best cornerback, Wonderful Terry, aggravated a pre-existing ankle injury against Vanderbilt, and though he played through the pain, it’s been noted that he’s still dealing with the injury leading up to the game this week.
Recommendation: Turner’s price should have him in most of your lineups this week as he offers a much higher floor, with just as much upside, as all of the comparably priced receiving options. While Taylor is more expensive, he is still one of the better receiving options in this slate and is also a recommended play.
Carlos Henderson – 5,500 Marlon Watts – 5,200
Analysis: Carlos Henderson, Louisiana Tech’s third receiver, did not start last week due to a finger injury. While he still worked his way into the game, it was Marlon Watts who played with the first team in his place. Though Watts caught four passes for 41 yards and a score, all of that production came after the backup quarterback had entered the game.
Recommendation: Reports still have Henderson wearing a cast and Watts likely to start this week, but both are priced without any sort of discount built in, making neither a recommended option.
Miami at Florida Atlantic
Miami
Expected Team Total Points: 36.25
Brad Kaaya – 7,900
Analysis: Kaaya has thrown at least one touchdown in every game of his collegiate career, a remarkable stat considering that he started every game last season as a true freshman. Kaaya should have no problem find success passing against a soft Florida Atlantic defense that allowed 424 passing yards last week against Tulsa. The only thing that should potentially slow Kaaya down is if Miami decides to lean on the running game with their receiving group short-handed due to injuries.
Recommendation: If you are weary of Driskel playing like the quarterback he was at Florida, and want to save at quarterback, Kaaya makes a lot of sense as the clear third best option at quarterback in this slate.
Joseph Yearby – 6,600 Mark Walton – 6,800
Analysis: Joseph Yearby and Mark Walton both had nice, abbreviated games against Bethune-Cookman. Yearby and Walton each saw time with the first team offense, both scoring touchdowns while Brad Kaaya was still in the game. Yearby will operate as the starter Friday, as he did in the season opener, but expect both to see double digit carries.
Recommendation: Interestingly, Yearby is priced lower than Walton even though Yearby is starting. While Booker, Dixon, and Allen all have the superstar reputations, Yearby and Walton have the softest matchup of any running back group in this slate, and should be playing from well ahead in an offense that will emphasize the running game. While it’s difficult to recommend running backs in a time share over one of the established names in this slate, there is strong potential for Miami to run all over FAU, especially once they start building a lead. We feel that this duo is very appealing in tournaments as a means of achieving salary relief, while also allowing you to access substantial upside. We have Yearby ranked slightly higher than Walton, mostly due to his role as ‘starter’ and his slightly cheaper price, but it’s conceivable that either, or both, could have huge games.
Rashawn Scott – 6,900 Herb Waters – 4,500 Malcolm Lewis 4,500
Analysis: Stacey Coley and Braxton Berrios have both been ruled out for Friday’s game due to injury. This should expand the roles of Waters and Lewis, who each saw four targets last week, as both are now starters. Scott was Kaaya’s go-to receiver last week, catching six balls for 100 yards and a touchdown, and projects to once again lead the team in receiving this week.
Recommendation: We have Scott as our projected top scoring receiver in this slate. While he is not cheap, there are enough other lower priced options that you should be able to fit him in. Besides Trent Taylor and Paul Turner on Louisiana Tech, there really aren’t many other reliable options at wide receiver. Herb Waters and Malcolm Lewis are both minimum priced options that carry material risk. If you were to play one, it should be Waters, as he has far more of an established track record.
Standish Dobard – 3,000
Analysis: With Berrios and Coley out, Dobard should see more looks in the passing game. He has already showed that he is a capable target, filling in competently for Clive Walford in 2014, and catching two passes, including a touchdown last week. While little is known about how targets will be allocated this season in the Miami passing game, Dobard has a more secure role than most of the pass catching options in this offense.
Recommendation: Dobard is the only other tight end besides Higbee that is worth considering in this slate. While we like Higbee more, Dobard will offer you salary relief.
Florida Atlantic
Expected Team Total Points: 18.75
Jaquez Johnson – 7,600
Analysis: Jaquez Johnson had a great first week going up against a weak Tulsa defense but should find things substantially more difficult against Miami. The sample size is obviously small, but in three career games against Power Five teams, Johnson has only averaged 92 yards passing, 36 yards rushing, while accounting for two total touchdowns. Also working against Johnson, Miami returns seven starters from a defense that allowed the ninth fewest passing yards per game in the FBS last season, and allowed an FBS low 26 passing yards in week one.
Recommendation: At his price of 7,600, there is little reason to play Johnson over Kaaya or Driskel, other than as a means of accessing a contrarian, low-ownership play.
Greg Howell – 6,300
Analysis: Howell turned in a monster performance last week against Tulsa, piling up 138 yards and two touchdowns on 22 carries. The problem this week is that Florida Atlantic will very likely be playing from behind for much of this game, making it less likely that Howell will see significant touches. Also of note, no Florida Atlantic running back caught a pass last week, which doesn’t bode very well for Howell’s role when the team has to go into ‘comeback mode.’
Recommendation: Howell is not cheaply priced at 6,300 and has game flow and matchup both going against him. We don’t recommend playing him.
Jenson Stoshak – 6,000 Kalib Woods – 5,200
Analysis: While Stoshak and Woods both had breakout games in Saturday’s shootout against Tulsa, they face a far more difficult matchup and expecting a big game from either would be naive. We project quarterback Jaquez Johnson to struggle mightily against Miami’s stellar pass defense and we have similar concerns about his receivers.
Recommendation: Trent Taylor and Paul Turner both being priced comparably to Stoshak and Woods doesn’t exactly strengthen the case for picking either of the FAU duo. We recommend avoiding the FAU receivers this week.
Utah State at Utah
Utah State
Expected Team Total Points: 15.25
Chuckie Keeton – 7,000
Analysis: It’s looking more and more like we might never again see the Chuckie Keeton of old. After tearing his ACL during the 2013 season, Keeton ended up taking a medical redshirt in 2014 following an attempted comeback that was cut short after three games. Then, last week in the 2015 season opener against FCS opponent Southern Utah, Keeton only completed 16 of his 33 pass attempts for 166 yards and failed to lead the offense to a single touchdown. For further perspective, Utah State only converted one of its 15 third down conversion attempts in the game. Granted, Keeton is without his top receiver, Hunter Sharp who has been suspended for the first two games of 2015, but far more was expected entering 2015 of Keeton and the offense as a whole.
Recommendation: This game is expected to be low scoring and there is not much evidence suggesting that Keeton will have a big game this week. Despite his many accomplishments over the course of his Utah State career, and being the cheapest quarterback in this slate, we don’t recommend playing Keeton against Utah.
LaJuan Hunt – 5,900
Analysis: Lajuan Hunt saw 23 carries last week turning them into 80 yards and he’ll likely see a large dose of touches once again versus Utah. The Utes rush defense only allowed 76 rushing yards against Michigan last week and Hunt will likely struggle to turn in an efficient night on the ground. Projected volume is the main factor that makes him relevant in this slate.
Recommendation: The other running back options in this slate are priced relatively reasonably, making Hunt’s expected volume less appealing than it would be otherwise. There’s little incentive to play him with so many better options available.
Utah
Expected Team Total Points: 28.75
Travis Wilson – 7,500
Analysis: Wilson is coming off of an efficient outing against Michigan in which he threw for 208 yards, completing 24 of his 33 attempts. However, no receiver has stepped up to offer Wilson a deep threat presence to this point and he only completed one pass of 20 yards or more against Michigan. Wilson will likely once again be asked to play the role of game manager in what projects to be a low scoring affair.
Recommendation: Even though Wilson is the second cheapest quarterback in this slate, you will want to pony up the extra cash to pay for one of Doughty, Driskel, or Kaaya.
Devontae Booker – 9,200
Analysis: Devontae Booker faced a very challenging test last week against a stout Michigan run defense. While he received 22 carries, he only turned them into 69 yards and a touchdown, though his value was buoyed by the seven passes he caught for 55 yards. Once again squaring off against a tough matchup this week, Utah State’s rush defense only allowed 129 yards per game last season, Booker’s projected usage is what gives him a very high floor.
Recommendation: Booker is the most expensive player in this slate, and while he very easily could justify that price, the other running back options offer so much relative value. We recommend including him in GPP lineups, as he’ll likely have lower ownership than Dixon and Allen, due to his price, but it’s entirely possible that he has the best day of all of them.