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The 2015 college football season kicks off this Thursday with a great slate and we're bringing you a game-by-game preview of all the relevant players.
Details:
- Entry Deadline (Lineup Lock): 9-3-15, 6:00 PM EST
- Number of games in slate: 9 games
North Carolina vs South Carolina (Neutral Field)
Kickoff: 6:00 PM EST
Spread: South Carolina -3
O/U: 65
North Carolina
Team Expected Points: 31
Marquise Williams - 10,100
Analysis: Marquise Williams’ ceiling is as high as any quarterback’s in the nation, though he has historically been inconsistent week to week. The UNC offense is the system that we have rated number one overall in our tempo rankings from 2014 and when the unit is playing well they’re as dynamic as any in the country. Williams played hurt down the stretch last season, fighting through a hip injury which he continued to recover from this spring. South Carolina returns eight starters from a defense that got carved up multiple times in 2014 by mobile quarterbacks, most notably by Joshua Dobbs and Deshaun Watson.
Recommendation: At 10,100, Marquise Williams really limits what you can do with your lineup – making it necessary that you go with cheaper, riskier options if you plug him in, making him a GPP play.
Elijah Hood – 4,900 TJ Logan – 7,300
Analysis: Elijah Hood is expected to serve as North Carolina’s starting running back for the season opener, over TJ Logan, who operated as the starter at the end of 2014. Marquise Williams, Hood, and Logan all project to have material roles in the run game and for this reason, Hood probably does not have the upside of other starting running backs. He’s not without risk, as he likely won’t see twenty carries or break 100 yards, and will need to score in order to put up a usable line. However, Hood is a bigger running back than Logan, and we expect him to see the majority of red zone work.
Recommendation: Hood is very cheap for someone who has been named a starting running back on FanDuel. While he will definitely be ceding carries to Logan and Williams, he is a viable, affordable option.
Ryan Switzer – 5,500 Quinshad Davis – 7,000 Mack Hollins – 5,200
Analysis: Mack Hollins only caught more than four passes in one game in 2014 but totaled eight touchdowns on the season. Quinshad Davis functions as a red zone target and possession receiver for UNC, but has been inconsistent throughout his career. Ryan Switzer sees more targets than either of Hollins and Davis, but the team has not done a good job using him creatively in the past and he has not put up many game-changing lines as a result.
Recommendation: Davis is not an option at the hefty price of 7,000. While Switzer should see the most targets of any player on UNC, there are better options who are priced similarly in this slate. Hollins, who led the team in receiving touchdowns a season ago, is listed as a back-up on the week one depth chart, so he has to be off limits unless you really feel like gambling.
South Carolina
Expected Team Total Points: 34
Connor Mitch – 7,300
Analysis: Connor Mitch was officially named the South Carolina starter on August 25th. Mitch has the surrounding weapons and the matchup to potentially put together a nice game, but he has not had a particularly strong summer camp, and he has no established track record.
Recommendation: While Mitch’s price is not outrageous, there are too many unknowns to go with him in cash games.
Brandon Wilds – 7,700 David Williams – 5,000
Analysis: Brandon Wilds has been named the starter and while coaches and media have emphasized that he will split carries with David Williams, this is a fantastic matchup for Wilds. He has shown flashes of great play amidst injuries, and backing up Mike Davis in the past. If he is given a starter’s workload against a UNC defense that ranked as the 12th worst rush defense in the FBS, Wilds will have a big day.
Recommendation: Wilds is priced reasonably for someone who has a great matchup and should lead his team in carries. There are more stable situations, but if this game is as a close as Vegas projects, he should see plenty of action and is worth considering.
Pharoh Cooper – 9,100
Analysis: Pharoh Cooper had a fantastic 2014 and South Carolina works to get him involved as many ways they can, whether it be via running or passing plays. Cooper caught 69 balls for 1,136 yards and nine scores, rushed 27 times for 200 yards and two touchdowns, and even completed five passes for 78 yards and two touchdowns. While you could view the inexperience at quarterback as something that could negatively impact the team’s top receiver, we’re expecting that Coach Spurrier will look for even more ways to get Cooper involved this season. Whether it be through screens, wildcat snaps, or trick plays, Cooper will be seeing the ball frequently as a means of taking pressure off of Connor Mitch.
Recommendation: Pharoh Cooper is the highest priced receiver in this slate. While he will need to have a huge game to justify this price, the sheer amount of targets he should receive should give him a high floor, especially against this soft defense. He makes sense in cash games as someone who is priced similarly to many of the second tier running backs, and has the potential to put up as a big game as anyone in this slate.
Florida International at Central Florida
Kickoff: 6:00 PM EST
Spread: Central Florida -16.5
O/U: 46
Florida International
Expected Team Total Points: 14.75
Jonnu Smith – 4,000
Analysis: Jonnu Smith is clearly the top target in the FIU passing game, producing a line of 61/710/8 in 2014 as a sophomore. The team splits him out wide regularly and Smith caught 38 more passes than any other player on the team in 2014. Simply put, he is clearly the top option in the passing game, regardless of his status as a tight end. With FIU expected to be playing from behind in this contest, they’ll be throwing out of necessity and Smith will be heavily involved.
Recommendation: Smith is the most expensive tight end in this slate, however there is a strong chance that he should justify his price. There are lower priced options that could have good games, but Smith has the potential to put up a huge week and give you a big edge on others who went cheap at tight end.
Central Florida
Expected Team Total Points: 31.25
Justin Holman – 7,700
Analysis: With UCF losing their top four leading receivers from 2014, much is unknown about who will be catching passes this fall. Justin Holman was very inconsistent last year, even with a great group of receivers, and the team will likely be more reliant on the run game in 2015.
Recommendation: Holman is not priced very cheaply and lacks the upside that we would want from a tournament play, as he simply doesn’t have a strong supporting cast to throw to.
William Stanback – 7,600
Analysis: A lot was expected of Williams Stanback in 2014, and while he largely disappointed, he was also hampered by injuries throughout the season. Stanback also missed the spring game this year with a leg injury, but is said to be healthy and should function as the featured back in this offense. UCF loses its top four receiving options from 2014, making it even more likely that they’ll need Stanback to shine behind an offensive line that returns three starters. Florida International gave up big days every time that they faced an FBS team that featured a workhorse back in 2014, with Jordan Howard, Devon Johnson, Ray Lawry, and James Conner all going over 100 yards. With UCF expected to be comfortably ahead in this game, it would be surprising if Stanback saw less than 20 carries.
Recommendation: Stanback is the most affordable workhorse back who also projects to have game flow on his side. While he probably doesn’t have the upside of other running backs in this slate, we like him as a safe play.
Oklahoma State at Central Michigan
Kickoff: 7:00 PM EST
Spread: Oklahoma State -23
O/U: 54.5
Oklahoma State
Expected Team Total Points: 38.75
Mason Rudolph – 9,000
Analysis: Oklahoma State has the second highest team total in this slate, projected to score 39 points. Mason Rudolph will likely have success throwing the football, but is a zero in the run game and may cede red zone work to his backup J.W. Walsh. While it’s safe to lock Rudolph in for close to 300 yards and at least a couple of scores, giving him a nice floor, we don’t think his ceiling is as high as other quarterbacks in this slate.
Recommendation: It’s very difficult to build a lineup with a high floor if you spend on quarterback in this FanDuel slate. As mentioned above, we don’t believe Rudolph can put up a huge game this week, making it tough to recommend playing him.
Chris Carson – 7,900
Analysis: Chris Carson was named the starting running back over Rennie Childs with the release of Oklahoma State’s most recent depth chart. Carson is a very highly touted JUCO transfer and should be the most talented and productive running back that Oklahoma State has had in recent years. While Coach Mike Gundy has stated a desire to get Carson and Childs each “about 15 carries” against Central Michigan, this could just be coach-speak. That statement though was not exactly what we were hoping to hear.
Recommendation: While the information of Carson being named the starting running back was not made public until after the pricing was released, Carson’s price does not represent any sort of discount. As a result of his price (7,900) and the potential workload concerns, it would be smart to limit your exposure to Carson. He’s not someone we consider a sure thing this week.
Brandon Sheperd – 7,300 James Washington – 6,000
Analysis: Brandon Sheperd should function as Rudolph’s top target in 2015. Sheperd clearly established himself as Rudolph’s go-to receiver over the last two games of 2014, hauling in 12 passes for 254 yards and three scores in that span, and we expect that connection to continue into this season. One thing to note is that Sheperd has recently dealt with a dislocated finger but should return to practice in advance of the game on Thursday. James Washington, on the other hand, was a true deep threat as a freshman, scoring six touchdowns on only 28 catches while amassing 456 yards. He’s received a ton of hype this offseason and is as pure of a boom/bust pick as you will find at wide receiver.
Recommendation: Assuming Sheperd’s hand is fine, he represents a good value as one of the one of the cheapest true number one receivers in this slate. If his usage from the end of 2014 carries over, he will prove to be a great play this week. If you are looking to put together multiple qualifier or GPP lineups, it makes a ton of sense to throw Washington into at least one of them, as he only needs to see a few deep balls to be a difference maker.
Central Michigan
Expected Team Total Points: 15.75
Cooper Rush – 6,500
Analysis: We feel that Cooper Rush is getting too much love following his huge performance in the Bahamas Bowl last season. If we take out that game, in which Rush threw for 493 yards and seven touchdowns, he only averaged 222 yards passing and 1.67 scores per game. He did not break the 300 yard passing threshold in any other game in 2014. And that was with Titus Davis, his clear top target, who is now gone.
Recommendation: We won’t be using Rush in any sort of format this week and view him as a play with very limited upside and a low floor.
Western Kentucky at Vanderbilt
Kickoff: 8:00 PM EST
Spread: Even
O/U: 68
Western Kentucky
Expected Team Total Points: 34
Brandon Doughty – 10,100
Analysis: While Brandon Doughty top quarterback play this Thursday, working against him will be that Vanderbilt plays at a very slow tempo, as they played at the 13th slowest pace in the FBS last year. This is also a defense that returns nine starters, though they were less than stellar as a unit in 2014. That being said, we’re still very high on Doughty. Last year, Old Dominion, who run system similar to Western Kentucky, played at Vanderbilt, and quarterback Taylor Heinicke threw for 291 yards and two touchdowns. We believe that a similar output should be viewed as the floor for Doughty. The Western Kentucky offense is a good deal more efficient than Old Dominion’s and Doughty is a better quarterback than Heinicke.
Recommendation: Doughty certainly has the ceiling to justify his price, but it is tough to recommend him as more than a GPP play considering how many risks you have to take elsewhere to use him.
Leon Allen – 9,000
Analysis: Leon Allen ran into legal trouble this offseason and while no suspension has been announced, we’ll want to follow closely on game day to make sure he dresses. Allen’s backup, Anthony Wales, has already been ruled out, so the heavily utilized Allen could be in for an even bigger day, barely coming off the field when WKU has the ball. Western Kentucky can beat you any number of different ways and while Allen will be key part of the offense, it is tough to envision this being a game in which he gets close to the 30 carries that he generally needed in order to have huge games last season. Fortunately, he can still make a substantial impact with far less touches than that.
Recommendation: Allen represents great value on FanDuel, as he’s priced similarly to running backs who he has historically substantially out-produced. You will have to go cheap elsewhere to fit him in, but Allen is looking like a great cash game play.
Jared Dangerfield – 8,100 Taywan Taylor – 6,500 Antwane Grant – 5,200 Nicholas Norris – 4,500 Nacarius Fant – 4,500
Analysis: Jared Dangerfield is Western Kentucky’s top receiver heading into 2015. Last season, WKU spread the ball around to a large group of receivers, capping the reliable output of any one pass catcher. Even though Dangerfield is the top receiving option in this offense, he doesn’t have the upside of other teams’ number one receivers, as a result of the fairly equitable distribution of targets. It is very important to note that Dangerfield has not practiced in two weeks, with an undisclosed injury, and this is definitely a situation to monitor leading up to kickoff. If Dangerfield were to be ruled out, WKU’s other receivers would become far more interesting options.
Recommendation: If all of the Western Kentucky receivers suit up, we probably won’t be recommending playing any of them, as it is difficult to feel confident that any one of them individually puts up a usable line. If Dangerfield were to be ruled out, Nacarius Fant would slide into his starting role, though to his point in his career he hasn’t made much of an impact. Antwane Grant and Taywan Taylor are sharing one starting role but both are certain to see legitimate playing time. Nicholas Norris has the slot receiver position to himself and is intriguing at minimum price. We haven’t seen much from Norris, but in a GPP if you need a minimum priced receiver, he makes a lot of sense. Overall, it’s best to view this receiving group as lottery tickets.
Tyler Higbee – 3,500
Analysis: Higbee is taking over Mitchell Henry and saw plenty of playing time last season, especially in the school’s late season of upset of Marshall, during which Henry got hurt, and Higbee scored three touchdowns. Western Kentucky tight ends are used plenty in the passing game and Higbee has a nice floor as someone who has no proven backup in this offense.
Recommendation: Even if Dangerfield suits up, Higbee is a top tight end play this week. If Dangerfield is out, he becomes a borderline must-start.
Vanderbilt
Expected Team Total Points: 34
Ralph Webb – 8,900
Analysis: The only way we really see Ralph Webb being slowed down is if game flow forces Vanderbilt to abandon the run. There are numerous factors working in Webb’s favor. Western Kentucky had the 13th worst run defense in 2014. Vanderbilt’s new offensive coordinator, Andy Ludwig, previously worked as OC at Wisconsin where he consistently boasted a nationally top ranked rushing attack. Ludwig has already stated that he’ll be installing an “tailback driven offense." Even though Vanderbilt recently lost their starting left tackle for the season, they still return three starting linemen. Vanderbilt has yet to name a starting quarterback, will not do so in advance of kickoff, and the team has lost its leading receiver, C.J. Duncan, for the season. Webb will be the focal point of this offense.
Recommendation: Webb is priced very expensively on FanDuel, relative to the established stars who are priced similarly to him. His projected heavy workload though is what makes him appealing, especially on FanDuel. Coupled with a great matchup, even at the relatively high price, he is one of the safer running back plays in the slate.
Steven Scheu – 3,900
Analysis: As much as Vanderbilt will try and run the ball on Thursday, they will throw at times, and Scheu should be the number one target of whoever is named starting quarterback. C.J. Duncan, the team’s top returning wide receiver has been ruled out for the year with injury, and while Scheu was already set to see plenty of targets, he should only see more as a result.
Recommendation: Scheu is the top target on a team playing in the game with the highest over/under in this slate. You’ll want to make sure you have exposure and he makes sense in both and cash games and GPPs.
Michigan at Utah
Kickoff: 8:00 PM EST
Spread: Utah -5.5
O/U: 46
Michigan
Expected Team Total Points: 20.25
Jake Rudock – 6,900 Ty Isaac – 6,200 De’Veon Smith – 6.200
Analysis: Not much is known about the Wolverines, as they’ve yet to name a starting quarterback and probably won’t be doing so before kickoff. It wouldn’t be surprising if Michigan played two quarterbacks and Coach Jim Harbaugh has already stated that three running backs will receive carries.
Recommendation: There is way too much uncertainty surrounding this program to confidently project a solid fantasy output from any one player. While it seems like Jake Rudock will be the starting quarterback and Ty Isaac may be the most talented running back, De’Veon Smith has in fact been listed as the starting running back. We won’t be recommending rostering anyone from this team for the season opener.
Utah
Expected Team Total Points: 25.75
Devontae Booker – 9,300
Analysis: Devontae Booker will undoubtedly be the focal point of Utah’s game plan against Michigan, and it would be very surprising if he received less than 20 carries. However, Michigan had one of the best run defenses in the FBS last season, only allowing 118 yards per game. While Booker did not have a strong showing against Michigan when the two teams met last season, he was not yet entrenched as the team’s bell cow running back at that time. Even though a low yards-per-carry average can probably be expected from Booker, this game is likely going to be played at a very slow tempo, lending itself to Utah’s desire to lean heavily on Booker.
Recommendation: Booker’s potential this week is a result of the projected volume of carries he should be receiving. Even though there is a realistic chance that Michigan limits his yards per carry, we project him for the second most points in this slate amongst running backs, as Utah is likely to rely on him all game long.
Ohio at Idaho
Kickoff: 9:00 PM EST
Spread: Ohio -9
O/U: 55
Ohio
Expected Team Total Points: 32
Derrius Vick – 8,200 JD Sprague – 4,500
Analysis: Coach Frank Solich has already gone on record saying that both Derrius Vick and JD Sprague will play in the season opener, though Vick has been named the starter. Anyone who followed this team last season knows that the quarterback situation was a nightmare for fantasy players, with in-game rotation commonly occurring.
Recommendation: While Ohio should have success against the Idaho defense, the fact that we know that a two quarterback system will be used, makes both quarterbacks unplayable as far as we’re concerned.
A.J. Ouelette – 8,900
Analysis: Idaho had the eighth worst run defense in the FBS in 2014, allowing over 245 yards per game. While Ouelette was hobbled for much of his freshman season with an ankle injury, he finished strong, averaging 125 yards per game over the school’s final three contests. Ohio returns 99 career starts on its offensive line, ninth most in the FBS, and even though the coaching staff has expressed a desire to ease Ouelette’s burden this season, even if he only gets 15-20 carries, he should be able to deliver a solid performance.
Recommendation: Ouelette’s price point on FanDuel initially would have us hesitant to play him in cash games, especially with talk that the team will use multiple running backs more often this year. However, considering how great this matchup is, Ouelette should have a very nice day even if he isn’t receiving quite the workload he was last year. We view Ouelette as a safe play who could explode for a big game.
Idaho
Matt Linehan – 6,400
Expected Team Total Points: 23
Analysis: While Matt Linehan’s numbers last year were relatively poor, he also was not throwing to Dezmon Epps, who was kicked off the team in 2014, after a great 2013 campaign. Additionally, Idaho averaged the 14th most pass attempts per game in the FBS last season and Ohio had the 105th ranked pass defense. Linehan has not yet been officially named the starting quarterback, but the local beat writers fully expect he will be the guy on Thursday.
Recommendation: Matt Linehan is one of the cheaper priced quarterbacks in this slate. As he does not stick out as a “must-play” from either a pricing or matchup standpoint, but rather is a decent blend of both, it’s possible that he will have fairly low ownership in this slate.
Elijhaa Penny – 6,500
Analysis: Elijhaa Penny is the starting running back for Idaho and is a candidate to receive twenty carries, as this situation in no way appears to be a timeshare. Game flow is certainly a legitimate concern, as Idaho could fall behind early, but Penny should remain on the field, regardless, and will be receiving carries as long as the run game is not completely abandoned.
Recommendation: While Penny isn’t overly expensive, he still requires a fairly sizable investment and the likelihood that Idaho has to lean on the passing game has makes it tough to trust him in cash games.
Dezmon Epps – 5,900
Analysis: Dezmon Epps was Idaho’s leading receiver in 2013, accumulating close to 1,000 yards, but was kicked off the team in 2014. He was reinstated this summer, found trouble again with the law, but there has bene no word of a suspension. He also missed time early in camp with a leg injury but has been practicing lately, and has been described as “playing with a different gear than everyone else and being open on nearly every play” in practice, by a local beat writer. While practice is of course different than doing it in actual games, it is good to see that Epps is resembling the effective receiver that he was in 2013, and he should be ready to make an instant impact in this offense.
Recommendation: Epps is a great building block for your lineup, as a receiver who is modestly priced and should be his team’s top option in the passing game.
TCU at Minnesota
Kickoff: 9:00 PM EST
Spread: TCU -14.5
O/U: 57.5
TCU
Expected Team Total Points: 36
Trevone Boykin – 10,500
Analysis: Boykin is arguably the best fantasy football quarterback in the entire FBS and a frontrunner for the Heisman coming into 2015. Minnesota returns seven starters, including three defensive backs from a defense that ranked 33rd in yards allowed per game in 2014. Last year, in games against Texas, West Virginia, Ole Miss, Minnesota, and Kansas State – the five toughest passing defenses he faced - Boykin failed to throw for over 260 yards in each. Fortunately, he ran for 5 scores in these games to buoy his fantasy output, highlighting that even when he is not lighting it up with his arm, he can still produce serviceable games.
Recommendation: While over the course of the season Boykin will likely be one of the top quarterbacks in the nation, it’s tough to see this as an ideal matchup for him. His price is exorbitant and there is substantial risk that he does not hit value. He will likely have low ownership and we’re only considering him a GPP play. Even in that instance, you will have to get exceedingly creative to construct a solid lineup featuring the most expensive player on the board.
Aaron Green – 8,300
Analysis: Aaron Green was one of the best running backs in the country in the second half of last season, amassing 992 rushing yards even though he only started five games. Green enters this season as the favorite to see the majority of carries, but this will be a system that uses multiple backs. Even though that is the case, Green does not need to see 20+ touches in order to make an impact. Though Green did not receive 20 carries in any game last season, he totaled eight touchdowns in the final five games, while rushing for more than 100 yards in three of them. The matchup is also nice, as TCU returns four starting linemen and Minnesota gave up huge rushing games down the stretch last season to Missouri and Ohio State, who like TCU operate out of the Spread formation.
Recommendation: As noted in our FanDuel cash game strategy guide, we are looking to play running backs that are guaranteed a high volume of carries. Green is priced modestly relative to the other high quality running backs in this slate; however with Coach Gary Patterson hinting strongly at a committee this season, using Green in GPP lineups is more advisable than cash. That being said, TCU should recognize how much better they are with Green on the field and ensure that he sees enough touches to make an impact. There is risk here, but Green could easily pay off big time.
Kolby Listenbee – 5,900
Analysis: With the news that Deante’ Gray will not be playing against Minnesota, Kolby Listenbee should be in line for more targets than usual. Listenbee caught 41 passes for 753 yards in 2014 despite being hobbled with an ankle injury for much of the second half of the season. He has track star speed and, as evidenced by his 18.4 yards per catch average in 2014, can turn every play into a big play. He should be the clear number two target in the passing game for Trevone Boykin on Thursday.
Recommendation: At 5,900, Listenbee should be a very nice play this week. He does not need a ton of targets to put forth a valuable line and has as much upside, if not more, than all of the similarly priced receivers in this slate. He makes an ideal tournament play.
Josh Doctson – 8,300
Analysis: Josh Doctson is Boykin’s clear number one target and, much like Listenbee, should also see an uptick in targets with Gray ruled out. Doctson broke his hand this spring and then dealt with an undisclosed injury leading up to game day. Gary Patterson has stated that he expects Doctson to start Thursday, but this is still a situation to monitor leading up to kickoff. Doctson scored two touchdowns against Minnesota last season and even though the Gophers return two Second Team All-Big Ten defensive backs, you can be sure that Boykin will feel confident feeding Doctson jump balls, as he was willing to do so often in tough matchups throughout 2014.
Recommendation: Considering Doctson’s price, limited exposure is warranted this week. Pharoh Cooper has just as high upside, if not more, and is a good bet to see more touches than Doctson, while Cayleb Jones, who is priced slightly less than Doctson has a clear edge in matchup, and could easily be the top scoring receiver in this slate. If you are going to spend on one receiver, especially in cash, it should not be Doctson.
Minnesota
Expected Team Total Points: 21.5
Rodrick Williams Jr – 6,000
Analysis: Williams has been named the starting running back for Minnesota and while it is possible that he takes on a David Cobb level workload, that’s far from a certainty at this point. The talk has definitely been positive from players, coaches, and beat writers about Williams this summer and also working in his favor is that Minnesota returns three offensive linemen. Coach Jerry Kill also stated that the team will not be using any “no-huddle” this season, further emphasizing the belief that Minnesota will be running an offense with a very slow tempo, focused on the run game. TCU represents a tough test, returning three starters from a defensive line that allowed the 13th least rush yards per game in 2014. Also working against Williams is that TCU, as 14.5 point favorites, could very easily go up early and force Minnesota to throw more than they would like.
Recommendation: Williams’ workload will likely be dependent upon game flow. If Minnesota can keep this game close, there’s a strong chance that Williams will see a ton of carries. The issue is, of course, TCU could easily turn this game into a blowout, and even if it stays close, TCU’s run defense is very strong. Though he’s reasonably priced at 6,000, Williams has enough uncertainties that we recommend staying away in cash games.
Duke at Tulane
Kickoff: 9:30 PM EST
Spread: Duke – 10
O/U: 47.5
Duke
Expected Team Total Points: 28.75
Thomas Sirk – 5,100
Analysis: This will be Sirk’s first year as a starter but he has plenty of experience in a short yardage and goal line roles from previous seasons. Ideally, we would see that translate into his role as a starter and he would be a true duel threat, but Duke Coach Dave Cutcliffe has already hinted that two quarterbacks could be used, with backup Parker Boehme being utilized in the same way Sirk was in 2014. Sirk has only attempted 14 career passes, so there’s not much track record to go on in terms of his arm. Additionally, Duke’s top two receivers from a season ago are also gone, adding more uncertainty to the passing game. Tulane got beat badly in each of its three matchups against Power Five teams last season against Rutgers, Duke, and Georgia Tech, giving up an average of 419 yards and 39 points in those contests.
Recommendation: Sirk is the obvious cash game play here on FanDuel. Not only is he the cheapest quarterback, but the combination of his running ability and the matchup make it very likely that he puts up at least a solid line. His price of 5,100 allows you so much more roster flexibility in comparison to the top tier quarterbacks, that he is the shoe-in for obvious starting point for cash games. He will be very highly owned, as it’s no secret that he represents a great value, but when it comes to building a cash game lineup, that’s completely fine. Fading Sirk makes a lot more sense in tournaments.
Shaquille Powell – 6,900
Analysis: Shaquille Powell was the team’s leading rusher in 2014 with 618 yards on the ground, and received 29 carries in the school’s bowl game, turning them into 117 yards. Duke traditionally rotates multiple backs, rendering all of them unplayable. Heading into 2015 however, Jela Duncan has been ruled out for an extended period of time and Shaun Wilson has been banged up, and did not participate in the team’s most recent scrimmage, though it’s sounding like he returned to practice this past week. Running back depth has been such a concern at Duke heading up to the season opener that the third string quarterback has been moved to running back.
Recommendation: Powell’s playability largely comes down to Shaun Wilson’s health. If Wilson is out, Powell will likely push for twenty carries. Though red zone work may be tough to come by considering Duke’s usage of quarterback running plays at the goal line, Powell would have a safe, significant role. If you need a cheaper running back with guaranteed touches, Powell makes sense, though his upside isn’t as high as other running backs who play this Thursday.
Braxton Deaver – 3,500
Analysis: Deavor missed all of 2014 with a knee injury, but was a reliable source of fantasy production in 2013. With Duke losing its two top pass catchers from 2014, and Thomas Sirk’s inexperience throwing the football at the NCAA level, it’s likely Deaver will serve as his safety blanket.
Recommendation: While Deaver is not as athletic as Jonnu Smith, or the hulking red zone target that is Tyer Higbee, he should be a lock for at least a few catches. Additionally, Duke projects to run a ton in this game, so if you are looking for upside, Deaver is probably not your man.
Tulane
Expected Team Total Points: 18.75
Sherman Badie – 6,500
Analysis: Badie began 2014 with a bang, rushing for 215 yards in his first ever collegiate game. After a few more solid showings in the early part of the season, Badie was hobbled by a high ankle sprain that, though he tried to play through, severely limited his productivity during the remainder of the year. He is expected to split carries in 2015 with at least two other running backs, but Badie is also working out wide in three wide receiver sets, potentially giving him more paths to touches. Duke’s run defense was prone to giving up big days last season and returns only one starting defensive lineman, while Tulane returns four starters on its offensive line.
Recommendation: Duke’s run defense was not good in 2014 and the expectation of both Tulane and Duke beat writers is that Tulane will look to attack on the ground. While Badie will be utilized creatively, the rotation in this backfield makes him far from safe play.
UTSA at Arizona
Kickoff: 10:00 PM EST
Spread: Arizona – 31.5
O/U: 52.5
Expected Team Total Points: 41
Anu Solomon – 9,900
Analysis: Solomon played very well as a redshirt freshman, putting up some huge fantasy lines, most of which came prior to an ankle injury which limited him in the second half of the season. Solomon does not have game breaking rushing ability, but moves effectively and should improve as a passer in his second year as a starter. While he struggled in last year’s meeting with UTSA, this year’s Roadrunners team only returns three defensive starters in what projects to be a rebuilding year.
Recommendation: Out of all of the highly priced quarterbacks, Solomon should have the easiest path to guaranteed fantasy points. He is facing a defense that has been decimated by graduation and is surrounded by very talented skill players. The main concern here is that the game gets out of hand too quickly before Solomon can post an elite line. It’s also conceivable that his running back, Nick Wilson, steals touchdowns from him. He’s also the quarterback that is least likely to play into the fourth quarter, as Arizona should be comfortably ahead by then.
Nick Wilson – 10,100
Analysis: Nick Wilson operated as a true feature back in Rich Rodriguez’s offense for much of last season, with only concussion and ankle injuries really being able to slow him down. In the three non-conference matchups Arizona faced last season, Wilson went for at least 100 yards and a touchdown in each of them. This year, UTSA returns zero starting defensive linemen from 2014 and this projects as a plus matchup.
Recommendation: The same concerns that apply for Solomon also apply for Wilson. This game could get ugly very quickly and it seems unlikely that the starters play into the fourth quarter. That being said, Wilson should be a lock for a solid line, however it will be difficult for him to justify his exorbitant price tag.
Cayleb Jones – 8,100
Analysis: Cayleb Jones started last season with a string of monster games, but tailed off leading up to the school’s bowl game, when he returned to form, with his fourth 100 yard game of the season. This pattern is very similar to Anu Solomon’s season and while Solomon suffered through an ankle injury, Jones was dealing with a hand injury. Fully healthy now, Jones should have no trouble taking advantage of what should be a very weak UTSA defense.
Recommendation: Unlike his teammates Wilson and Solomon, Jones only needs a couple of big plays in order to hit value. Jones put up a line of four catches for 143 yards and a touchdown last year against UTSA and there’s no reason he can’t replicate that this year, or do better.
UTSA
Expected Team Total Points: 11.5
UTSA has the lowest team total of any team in this slate. It’s very likely that they will struggle mightily to move the ball at all and it’s not advisable to roster any players from this team.