In this article, we take a look at the list of games in the divisional round of the playoffs in an effort to give you options that we think can help you get the most out of your lineup. We are looking to maximize your lineup by giving you a few cheaper options that can help you to get your lineup loaded up in other areas.
We give consideration to the script of each of the games to determine how these games will likely play out. In some cases, we also give the weather a tip of the cap. We evaluate the play of the wide receivers and tight ends and how they will match up with the defenses they will face. We also look at players that are injured, or those coming back from injury. We then target plays that we like and a few that we don’t.
With the help of our defensive guru Aaron Rudnicki, let’s take a look at players that we both like and a few that we would avoid this week.
3 STAR MATCHUPS
These are players that have the best matchups of the divisional round of the playoffs.
Doug Baldwin, WR, Seattle @ Carolina ($6,800)
Bischoff: Baldwin and Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson displayed amazing rapport over the last half of the season, and this week Baldwin gets a beatable matchup out of the slot in better weather than last week in Minnesota. While Panthers cornerback Josh Norman has dominated headlines with his great play this year, the reality is that he plays outside and will not draw Baldwin in this game. Baldwin wins the matchup against anyone the Panthers will deploy to stop him, and he’s a very good play this week.
Rudnicki: The Panthers have been tough on No. 1 WRs due to the presence of Josh Norman, but he doesn’t typically work out of the slot and that’s where Baldwin does the bulk of his damage. With Bene Benwikere out for the year, the Panthers are turning to castoff Cortland Finnegan who was semi-retired not too long ago. With more favorable weather conditions this week, the Seahawks passing game should improve and Baldwin figures to be the main beneficiary.
Michael Floyd, WR, Arizona vs. Green Bay ($5,100)
Bischoff: Floyd has emerged as one of the primary weapons for Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer and is a very good outside receiver paired with the speedy John Brown and slot receiver Larry Fitzgerald. This week the Cardinals get the Packers at home and the better matchup is with the outside receivers here as the Packers defend the slot better than they do on the outside. Floyd will see enough targets to warrant consideration at his price.
Rudnicki: Sam Shields may provide a boost to the Packers if he can return from a concussion this week, but he had yet to be cleared as of Thursday evening. With Larry Fitzgerald working mostly out of the slot against Casey Hayward, that should leave Floyd and Brown with better matchups on the outside against rookie Damarious Randall and Shields or his backup Quinten Rollins. Floyd put up 6/111/0 against the same secondary just a few weeks ago, and appears to have emerged as the new No. 1 WR for Carson Palmer.
Demaryius Thomas, WR, Denver vs. Pittsburgh ($7,000)
Bischoff: Thomas has high upside in this matchup with quarterback Peyton Manning back under center. He will be counted on to make plays at home in a matchup where he should be much bigger and faster than anyone the Steelers will line up against him. Also, the Broncos other weapons should occupy the safeties for the Steelers and that will give Thomas a little room to operate.
Rudnicki: With Peyton Manning back under center, the Broncos passing game could take some more chances this week against a Steelers secondary that has improved over the year. Thomas figures to match up primarily with William Gay, an experienced veteran who gives up about 5 inches and 40 pounds here.
Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Denver vs. Pittsburgh ($5,800)
Bischoff: Sanders should be a target hog in this game as his short-to-intermediate route running will get him open early and often. He moves all over the formation and will be in a position to have a lot of success versus the Steelers in this game.
Rudnicki: Sanders moves around a bit, but mostly plays on the right which should leave him matched up with Antwon Blake quite often. Blake has been a weak link for the Steelers for much of the year and was benched at one point, but he seems to have worked his way back into a nearly full time role. That could be great news for the Broncos WRs this week.
Randall Cobb, WR, Green Bay @ Arizona ($5,900)
Bischoff: The Packers offense looked to wake up a little last week on the road against the Redskins with quarterback Aaron Rodgers spreading the ball out to all of his weapons. This week the Packers travel to Arizona, and it looks ugly for receiver James Jones on the outside. Fellow receiver Davante Adams is out, and that leaves Cobb running out of the slot where he has a giant advantage over the Cardinals. He’s also getting carries out of the back field which boosts his value.
Rudnicki: The Cardinals lost one of their best players when Tyrann Mathieu went down with an injury, and he was mainly responsible for covering the opposing slot WR. That should leave Cobb matched up primarily against Jerraud Powers, who has been a huge downgrade. While Cobb hasn’t had much success this year, he did seem to get on track last week with a touchdown and 5 rush attempts. If Patrick Peterson shuts down James Jones on the outside, I’d expect Rogers to look for Cobb rather often in this matchup.
Greg Olsen, TE, Carolina vs. Seattle ($6,900)
Bischoff: Olsen and quarterback Cam Newton have amazing chemistry and put together a great season on 2015. Olsen has emerged as the main option with all of the injuries the Panthers have suffered, and he has responded to become a fairly dominant offensive weapon. He’ll be the focal point of the Panthers attack this week, and the Seahawks can be exposed by opposing tight ends like Olsen. He put up a huge stat-line when these teams faced each other earlier this year and he should be in line for a big game here as well.
Rudnicki: Seattle does a lot of things well on defense, but they have consistently had difficulty defending the TE position. While their numbers in recent weeks look pretty good, they haven’t exactly faced any players as good as Olsen. He put up 7/131/1 against them back in week 6, and figures to once against be the focal point of the Panthers passing game here.
Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City @ New England ($5,100)
Bischoff: Kelce is a very physically talented tight end playing in a very conservative offense, and it’s held him back from producing high-end stats on a weekly basis. However, the Chiefs could be without star receiver Jeremy Maclin and they won’t have the luxury of playing this game all that conservative as the Patriots can score a lot of points. Look for Kelce to be a primary option in the Chiefs passing game, and the target volume is a great reason to play him here.
Rudnicki: We can probably expect the Patriots to focus much of their defensive game plan this week on limiting the damage that Kelce will do. He’s pretty clearly one of the most talented TEs in the game, but has often been held back by the conservative offense he plays in. The Chiefs may need to score more points than normal this week, however, and without Jeremy Maclin around, it stands to reason that Kelce should be in line for another big outing like last week.
2 STAR MATCHUPS
These are players that have neutral matchups. Players in this category should be used because of a potential low ownership number or because of their high upside.
Julian Edelman, WR, New England vs. Kansas City ($7,100)
Bischoff: It’s always a giant gamble to insert a player into a lineup after a long absence, and that exactly the situation with Edelman. He was one of the big pieces of the Patriots offense and helped the rest of their offensive pieces operate, but the question that has to be answered is can he stay healthy throughout this game. If he can he is a great value as he’ll get enough volume to get to value, but it is a big risk.
Rudnicki: Edelman is expected to return to action this week, and he should provide a huge boost to a Patriots offense that has looked a bit lost at times without him. He’s clearly Brady’s go-to target in key situations, and figures to do damage out of the slot and on the outside. The Chiefs defense is playing very well, but Edelman should be able to find enough openings against them.
Martavis Bryant, WR, Pittsburgh @ Denver ($6,000)
Bischoff: The Broncos do an excellent job in coverage and have been the best passing defense in the NFL this season, but the reason to roster Bryant is simply from a volume perspective. Bryant is capable of making explosive plays at any time, and he can score in a flash. He’ll get plenty of looks in this matchup, and this is likely a game in which the Steelers could be behind and throwing.
Rudnicki: With Antonio Brown out, there should be a lot of extra targets for Bryant this week. Broncos cornerback Chris Harris should be able to shut down Markus Wheaton and even if Bryant faces off against Aqib Talib most of the time, the boost in targets should be enough to offset the tighter coverage.
Albert Wilson, WR, Kansas City @ New England ($3,800)
Bischoff: If Maclin can’t go here, Wilson steps into a significantly more prominent role as one of the main outside options for the Chiefs. That means he’ll draw one of the Patriots outside corners and that’s a stiff challenge. However, there will be a big boost in targets and a likely situation in which the Chiefs can’t sit back and play conservative football on offense. He is worth a flier because of his price as it won’t take much to get to value here.
Rudnicki: Assuming Jeremy Maclin can’t go this week, Wilson will have to rise to the occasion as the team’s primary WR. He’s been a serviceable depth player for them this year and won’t have a particularly easy matchup against either Malcolm Butler or Logan Ryan, but a significant boost in targets seems imminent.
Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona vs. Green Bay ($6,500)
Bischoff: Fitzgerald is, and has been a fantastic wide receiver for a long time and he’s now moved to the slot where the Cardinals can take advantage of his size and route running skills to get him open. I’d think that the Packers want to get cornerback Casey Hayward on Fitzgerald in this game and that’s a tough test for Fitzgerald. Fitzgerald is still going to be an option in this game, but it seems that the Cardinals would want to expose the lesser cornerbacks on the outside and drive the ball down the field to receivers John Brown and Michael Floyd. In summary, I don’t see a ton of targets going to Fitzgerald in this game.
Rudnicki: The Packers best corner is likely Casey Hayward and he works mostly out of the slot, which means he should see plenty of Larry Fitzgerald this week. While the game got out of hand quickly, Fitzgerald was held to just 4/29/1 on 5 targets when the two teams met last time. He’s had a great season, but the targets for Fitzgerald have really dropped off over the past 4 games and it seems he’s no longer the focal point of the passing game that he was early on.
John Brown, WR, Arizona vs. Green Bay ($5,200)
Bischoff: Brown is a tremendous vertical threat, capable of taking the top off of the defense fairly consistently. He does carry risk as he’s dependent on these big plays to produce points and that risk is why he’s in this category this week. He might make a very intriguing low-ownership play because of his recent poor production, and at the end of the day he does have a good matchup against the Packers secondary. The determining factor is about the risk, and that needs to be considered before rostering him.
Rudnicki: The Cardinals like to move their receivers around, so Brown should have similar matchups to Floyd this week. He’s capable of a big game at any moment due to his speed and big-play ability, but he hasn’t topped 45 yards since week 14 so he’s a riskier choice here than the other Cardinals WRs.
Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England vs. Kansas City ($7,500)
Bischoff: When looking at the Patriots offense globally, it is easy to see a scenario where Gronkowski is very intriguing this week with Edelman returning. However, Gronkowski is banged up too and the matchup against the Chiefs is not a good one as they’ve been good versus tight ends all year. He is still the best tight end option in the game, but this week it might be a sneaky play to find value elsewhere.
Rudnicki: This is one of the most interesting matchups of the weekend as you have the best TE in the league going against a defense that has given up the fewest fantasy points in the league to the position. With the Patriots WRs getting healthy, it should be more difficult for the Chiefs to focus on Gronkowski as much as they would like to but this matchup looks pretty intimidating.
Heath Miller, TE, Pittsburgh @ Denver ($3,200)
Bischoff: Miller is in intriguing option this week only from a PPR perspective. The Steelers might have to go to short-to-intermediate throws this week with Brown out and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger hurting. That means a lot of short throws to Miller to keep the chains moving, and that is very valuable in this full PPR format.
Rudnicki: Miller has been pretty quiet in recent weeks and may need to be used more as a blocker this week due to the Broncos pass rush and questionable health of Ben Roethlisberger. With Antonio Brown unable to play, however, that should free up a bigger role in the passing game for Miller and he’s good enough to take advantage.
1 STAR MATCHUPS
These are players that have matchups to avoid. Players in this category should be faded because of the matchup with a cornerback/defensive scheme or because of a bad game script.
Ted Ginn Jr Jr., WR, Carolina vs. Seattle ($5,000)
Bischoff: You can bet that the Seahawks will do everything they can to limit the deep ball to Ginn in this game, which means rolling a safety (Earl Thomas) to his side of the field. It’s tough to see a scenario where Ginn could find openings in this defense, and where quarterback Cam Newton has enough time for these types of routes to develop.
Rudnicki: Ginn mostly lines up on the left side of the formation, which should help keep him away from Richard Sherman but Jeremy Lane has helped solidify that side of the field as well. With FS Earl Thomas patrolling the deep secondary, Ginn figures to have a pretty quiet week.
Tyler Lockett, WR, Seattle @ Carolina ($4,400)
Bischoff: Lockett has truly been a special find for the Seahawks as he’s bolstered their return-game and become a nice secondary option for quarterback Russell Wilson. In this game, however, he’ll see plenty of Panthers cornerback Josh Norman and that hasn’t been a recipe for success for almost any receiver this year. Lockett faces a very tough test this week and is a candidate to be faded in this divisional-round matchup.
Rudnicki: Lockett has had a remarkable rookie season, but much of his damage has come on special teams. As a WR, he may wind up with one of the toughest matchups of the week as he should be lined up against Josh Norman for much of the game. The ability of Russell Wilson to scramble and buy time could help him get free for a big play, but you’re probably better off looking elsewhere.
James Jones, WR, Green Bay @ Arizona ($4,600)
Bischoff: The Packers picked up Jones off the scrap-heap this season and he’s had some success as an outside receiver in their offense. This week he draws Cardinals cornerback Patrick Peterson and he’s been very good this year as a player that has done a nice job limiting just about every receiver he’s faced off against.
Rudnicki: Jones has emerged as the go-to WR for Green Bay lately and is coming off a strong playoff game last week. He figures to be matched up against Patrick Peterson for much of this game, however, and that’s not a matchup he should have much success against.
