Each week, Footballguys staff members will share the big movers in their respective Dynasty Rankings. Since the contributors will rotate, please check in weekly. The focus of this article will be on the “why” more than the movement itself. Dynasty Rankings are fluid and we hope that sharing the rationale will help you in your quest to create dynasties with all of your teams. The diversity of rankings will result in a variety of opinions weekly.
Quarterback
Harstad
Cam Newton - Through his first three seasons in the NFL, Cam Newton was a top-6 fantasy quarterback in every year, (top three in many scoring systems). In year four, thanks to two missed games and a general decline in effectiveness, he fell to 17th. Worrying harbinger of things to come? Hardly. Now a 5th-year veteran, Newton is playing by far the best football of his career, dragging a terrible offensive supporting cast to a 4-0 record. And, oh yeah, he’s also the #3 fantasy quarterback.
Peyton Manning - Peyton is the most valuable fantasy quarterback in history, but age catches up to everyone, and now he’s struggling just to hold on to relevance as a low-end QB1. While he still has a bit left to offer his owners, the end is quite clearly nigh.
Tefertiller
Marcus Mariota – We were slow to move the rookie up into the Top 5 at the position. But, it is difficult to deny the poise and arm Mariota has displayed in his first three games as a professional. So far, he has exceeded expectations enormously.
Matthew Stafford – The Detroit quarterback has put up decent fantasy numbers, but only because of the high number of passing attempts at the expense of the running game. This formula is not a recipe for success long-term and we expect the Lions to run more frequently as the season progresses. Many rank Stafford highly due to his weapons, but he is not progressing as a quarterback.
Parsons
Cam Newton - I was skeptical of Newton coming into 2015 with a decline in rushing prowess and still lacking traditional pocket passing acumen. While the passing is coming around (despite the lack of overall weapons with Kelvin Benjamin lost for the season and Devin Funchess starting slow), the rushing is back to a difference-making level. With landmines populating much of the mid-QB1 and beyond out of the gate, Newton gets a boost.
Derek Carr - I liked Carr coming into the NFL and two things have drastically improved for the Fresno State product in Year 2: surrounding weapons and his control of the offense. His quick release and decision-making are consistently aiding his production and Amari Cooper plus Michael Crabtree have helped tremendously this season. Carr is firmly in the QB1 conversation.
Running Back
Parsons
David Johnson - While his playing time has been low for the opening month of the season, Johnson has produced more big plays than nearly every big name running back in the NFL. Johnson has showing difference-making ability in the return game, as a split out receiver, and as a bruising contact-winning rusher between the tackles. With more playing time consistent RB1 numbers are within range.
Devonta Freeman - I was one of the biggest non-supporters of Freeman in the pre-draft process and during his rookie year out there. Tevin Coleman came in as saw a dominant share of the carries immediately. I was not a big fan of Coleman either, but he was the leader of the backfield on early downs. Since Coleman's injury, Freeman has looked unreal. I do not even recognize him as the same player. Maybe he viewed this as his last chance to seize the job with Coleman out. Will the fire go out? Will Coleman reenter in a 50/50 or better share of the work? Maybe, but Freeman was already seeing goal line and passing down work over Coleman pre-injury. I would sell for a future first round rookie pick, but Freeman still saw a dynasty status bump since the preseason on my board.
Harstad
LeVeon Bell - How does the unanimous #1 running back rise in value? For starters, it helps when anyone who was even remotely close to you struggles out of the gate. The two backs typically ranked right after Bell were Lacy, who is on pace for under 1,000 rushing yards, and Hill, who is being outplayed by his backfield partner. Of the top 12 running backs in PPR scoring through four games, four are over 29 years old. An additional six are mired in an RBBC. Another is Latavius Murray, who is young and promising but unproven and faces his share of troubles. And the twelfth? It’s Bell himself, who makes the list despite having only played two games so far this year. That’s dominance.
Dion Lewis - Despite New England’s reputation for running a timeshare backfield, I don’t see how they keep Dion Lewis off the field. He’s proven to be the toughest-to-tackle back in the NFL this season, as dominant catching the football as he is running with it. If aliens came to earth in August and were trying to learn how this “football” thing worked, they’d think that Dion Lewis was one of the top five running backs in the NFL. And if New England really doesn’t have him in their long-term plans… well, leaving has worked out pretty well for Danny Woodhead, who is the 7th-ranked fantasy back through four weeks in San Diego.
Tefertiller
Jeremy Hill – Hill falls way downt he rankings after his subpar play the past two weeks. He was benched after a fumble two weeks ago and has given way to Giovani Bernard as the Bengals lead back. Sure, Hill will be used to milk the clock, and will score short touchdowns, but he is not a Top 10 dynasty back.
T.J. Yeldon – Yeldon has run very hard and looks the part of a long-term NFL starter. The poor play of quarterback Blake Bortles has kept Yeldon from putting up quality fantasy numbers. But, his time is coming.
Wide Receiver
Tefertiller
Amari Cooper – Cooper is everything fantasy owners had hoped he would be. The rookie runs great routes and is making big plays after the catch. Given that Cooper will only improve as a professional, we could be talking about him as the top dynasty receiver by the end of the season.
Andre Johnson – Johnson has fallen out of our rankings. When a receiver is aging, and not producing, there is little reason for hope. Johnson cannot create separations, drops too many passes, and will soon be passed by Donte Moncrief as the WR2 for Indianapolis.
Parsons
Quincy Enunwa - While Enunwa will be buried on the Jets depth chart when Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker are healthy, he flashed enough early this season to warrant holding for upside in deeper leagues. Devin Smith will get tiebreakers as the No.3 option, but Enunwa has prototypical size an athletic traits to warrant a bench spot into the offseason.
Stefon Diggs - With Charles Johnson out, Diggs took full advantage of his expanded role on a wide open passing game beyond Mike Wallace in Minnesota. Diggs had one of the best metric profiles of any Day 3 wide receiver prospect in the past 15 years.
Harstad
Travis Benjamin - Benjamin was held out of the end zone for the first time this season on Sunday. He finished with “just” 6 catches for 79 yards, instead. How many good games does a player need before it’s officially a trend? (Special mention must be made of his prowess as a returner; in leagues that reward return yards, there’s a good chance Travis Benjamin is the #1 receiver through four weeks.)
Amari Cooper - He was drafted in the top five with the assumption that he could be a top-10 receiver eventually. Well, replace “eventually” with “immediately”; our own Bob Henry, the most accurate fantasy forecaster last year according to FantasyPros, has Amari Cooper projected as a strong WR1 the rest of the way. Here’s every receiver in modern NFL history to rank in the top 12 in PPR scoring at age 21: Randy Moss. The current top 10 players in receiving yards at age 21: Moss, Mike Evans, Keenan Allen, Sammy Watkins, Josh Gordon, DeAndre Hopkins, Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks, Larry Fitzgerald, Jeremy Maclin. When players are this good this young, it’s time to take notice.
Tight End
Parsons
Charles Clay - In the Delanie Walker-type mold, I like Charles Clay. What is working in Clay's favor is Buffalo finding a functional quarterback in Tyrod Taylor and the wide receiver group, especially outside of Sammy Watkins, being a hodge podge of role players, elevating Clay's opportunities. Target volume alone will keep Clay in the TE1 discussion this year.
Gary Barnidge - Barnidge was streaming owner's dream the past two weeks with injuries all over the tight end position and Barnidge seeing consistent snaps and targets. Barnidge is an underrated athlete and on a team without a clear top receiver (or even NFL No.2 option). Barnidge will be a matchup TE2 with TE1 moments until the passing game sees an in-flux of top-shelf talent.
Harstad
Rob Gronkowski - Again, how can the universal #1 at his position rise in value? Gronkowski does it the same way LeVeon Bell does: by reasserting his total dominance over the field. Gronkowski currently ranks as the #1 fantasy TE in 2015 despite having his bye already. He is averaging a full eight points per game more than the #2 fantasy tight end, Travis Kelce. Kelce shouldn’t feel bad, though, because he has some impressive company. In PPR, Rob Gronkowski averages more points per game than Antonio Brown. He’s just 0.3 points per game behind Jamaal Charles, the #2 fantasy running back. Rob Gronkowski hasn’t been insanely productive for a tight end… he’s been insanely productive by the standards of any position. In Footballguys TE-premium scoring, he’s averaging more points per game than any player except for Tom Brady and Julio Jones. So far in 2015, owning Gronkowski has been like cheating. And at 26 years old with a well-established track record, there’s no reason to expect that to change in the foreseeable future.
Eric Ebron - Ebron suffered an unfortunate knee injury on Monday Night Football against the Seahawks. At the time of writing, the severity has yet to be determined, but many fear it is an MCL sprain that should keep him sidelined for a while. This is unfortunate, because Ebron was quietly in the middle of a sophomore campaign that saw him transform from a punchline to a credible offensive threat. A top-10 draft pick who ranked 7th at his position prior to his injury, the arrow is pointing up on Ebron as a dynasty asset.
Tefertiller
Zach Ertz – Quickly coming to the conclusion that Ertz is not any better than Brent Celek. That hurts just to write about the young tight end, filled with potential. At this point, Ertz is not startable in fantasy leagues and needs to show more before warranting discussion as a Top 10 dynasty tight end.
Gary Barnidge – Barnidge has emerged as the starter in Cleveland while many were waiting on Rob Housler. Barnidge has put up consecutive big games against a pair of AFC West teams who fail to defend the tight end position. Barnidge is now on the radar to stream as a starter.
