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Dynasty Rankings Movement
Each week, Footballguys staff members will share the big movers in their respective Dynasty Rankings. Since the contributors will rotate, please check in weekly. The focus of this article will be on the “why” more than the movement itself. Dynasty Rankings are fluid and we hope that sharing the rationale will help you in your quest to create dynasties with all of your teams. The diversity of rankings will result in a variety of opinions weekly.
Quarterback
Harstad
Tom Brady - Lifecycle of an underrated dynasty quarterback. 1) Rob Gronkowski gets hurt. 2) Tom Brady plays poorly. 3) Tom Brady gets written off. 4) Rob Gronkowski gets healthy. 5) Tom Brady performs like a top-5 fantasy QB again. At this point, it's basically clockwork- Tom Brady's passer rating is about 20 points higher with a healthy Gronk on the field. When Gronk is at full strength, Brady is a high-end QB1. When Gronk is ailing, Brady is a backup at best. Gronkowski is healthy now, and Brady figures to reap the benefits down the stretch.
Parsons
Geno Smith - This was a true ‘bottoming out’ week for Smith. He was already struggling, now the strongest of defenders have to be exiting stage right. I expect to see him dropped in plenty of moderately deep dynasty leagues this week and rightfully so.
Zach Mettenberger - The new Titans starter played well in his first start and the franchise is likely to give him a long leash for the rest of the season after moving on from upcoming free agent Jake Locker. With decent weapons in Justin Hunter, Kendall Wright, Delanie Walker, and Bishop Sankey, Mettenberger can be a spot starter down the stretch when a good matchup strikes.
Tefertiller
Zach Mettenberger – The former sixth round pick got his first professional start this week against the Houston Texans. Expect the Titans to give him a long looks as the team will want to know if they need to address the quarterback position early in the 2015 NFL Draft. While he still has plenty of room to grow and develop, the rookie is a big upgrade over Jake Locker and Charlie Whitehurst.
Kyle Orton – At this point, it seems like a safe bet that Orton will be the Bills starting quarterback for at least this season and possibly next, too. Buffalo gave the veteran a two-year deal for starter's money. With no 2015 first round pick, Orton could be a viable QB2 through 2015. With the Bills in playoff contention, there is no reason to throw cold water on his position as the starter.
Bischoff
Geno Smith — Smith threw three early interceptions Sunday against the Buffalo Bills and early reports have him getting benched in favor of Michael Vick for Week 9. This is a huge blow to Smith’s short-term and long-term value as this coaching staff looks to be in a little bit of trouble. There are no guarantees in the NFL and it should surprise nobody if the Jets go in a different direction at quarterback next year, especially with a potential head coaching change.
Running Back
Hindery
Marshawn Lynch - Lynch is wearing out his welcome in Seattle and reports have him gone after this season. He has always been a bit of a different guy and difficult to deal with, but finally found a perfect home in Seattle. Lynch was built to star in the run-heavy zone blocking offense of the Seahawks. Lynch’s value in another offense in 2015 at his advancing age could be minimal. That leaves owners with the balance of the 2014 season and even that does not look great as the Seahawks offensive line struggles through health issues and Lynch’s numbers suffer. It is probably too late to salvage much value from Lynch so owners probably have to ride out 2014, hope Lynch doesn’t retire and that he lands on his feet next March.
Theo Riddick - The 2013 6th rounder out of Notre Dame has been the Lions most impactful RB of late and has made a big impact in the passing game with a total of 15 catches for 149 yards the last two weeks he has played. Reggie Bush has been banged up and is in the last year of his contract. It is entirely possible that the Lions will let Bush walk after the season and Riddick will step into a similar role as part of a RBBC with Joique Bell. While the Lions aren’t particularly strong running the ball, they do throw to their backs often and Riddick could end up being a solid RB2 in PPR leagues and is a nice trade target for owners building for the future in need of RB help.
Doug Martin - Martin’s value has absolutely plummeted over the last 14 months and has fallen even further in the past few weeks. Martin has been entirely ineffective and it was more of the same against the Vikings as Martin mustered a pitiful 26 yards on 12 touches. He is reportedly on the trading block, as Tampa seems intent to give rookie Charles Sims a shot at the starting job once he returns from injured reserve. Perhaps the possibility of a trade serves as a glimmer of hope for Martin’s owners but it is also yet another sign that the new Bucs coaching staff is not impressed with Martin and does not view him as part of the team’s future plans.
Harstad
Denard Robinson - I'd been saying for a while that, with little else to play for, it was time for Jacksonville to see what they had in the electric Denard Robinson. They finally gave Robinson a chance, and it turns out what they have is pretty exciting. Since the beginning of 2013, Jacksonville RBs had just three games with 5 carries and 5+ yards per carry. They had combined to top 100 rushing yards just twice. Denard Robinson has hit both of those plateaus in each of his last two games.
Jerick McKinnon - One of the stars of the combine, McKinnon was an athletic freak but a raw football player. While conventional thought was that he'd have to sit and learn for a while, it seems he's ready earlier than anticipated. McKinnon is one of just five backs to average over 5.0 yards per carry for the season, and he has handily banished Matt Asiata back to a reserve role.
Bischoff
Mark Ingram — Ingram looks like a completely different player from the past few years. He is still a power back but there is quickness this year that was missing last year. It looks like Ingram has reinvented himself and is developing into a very good running back in a great situation. He has been very productive in three of his four starts and has four touchdowns in four games this season.
Charles Sims — There is speculation that the Buccaneers have made it clear that running back Doug Martin is available in a trade as the trade deadline approaches this week. The reason is that they get running back Charles Sims back from the injured reserve list this week, and it sounds like the Buccaneers are very high on the all-purpose back out of West Virginia. The Buccaneers aren’t getting much production out of Martin and they are going to give Sims a long look even if Martin isn’t traded. Look for Sims to partner with change of pace back Bobby Rainey and Martin to complete the committee.
Parsons
Montee Ball - The door continues to creak closed on Ball getting the starting job back in Denver. Knowshon Moreno performed better than Ball in the same role and now Ronnie Hillman is back from the ashes outperforming Ball as well. Ball was in the RB25 range last time I updated by running back rankings, but is set for another fall from his once top-10 perch in the offseason.
Charles Sims - Sims may or may not be the long-term answer for the Tampa Bay backfield. One thing we do know, it is not Doug Martin. Bobby Rainey is serviceable, but Sims has a better all-around game and is one of the most productive receiving collegiate backs in the past 15 years. Sims is a target player in PPR leagues as he nears his debut.
Tefertiller
Doug Martin – After holding optimism since Martin came back from injury, it is now time to admit that he has little chance of being a Top 5 ball carrier. I still have him higher than most of the other staffers. Charles Sims will be back soon and will have a role in the offense for the last few games. He moved up in the rankings as Martin moved down. A potential trade could boost Martin's value but we will need to see it materialize first.
C.J. Spiller – Spiller's broken collarbone could be a sad ending to his time in Buffalo. He moved down in the rankings since it will take the right situation for the electric player to achieve his potential. He is rapidly approaching the 30-year old line in the sand.
Zac Stacy – We have been lower on Stacy than most and now that he is running behind Tre Mason and Benny Cunningham, it is time to push the bruising runner down the rankings. Stacy is still under contract for another season so he needs an injury to see sizable playing time once again.
Wide Receiver
Tefertiller
Percy Harvin – With the trade to New York, there is little hope that Harvin can be a reliable fantasy WR1 as he was ranked. We expect the offense and quarterback play to prevent Harvin from reaching fantasy stardom. In addition, with two teams giving up on him in a brief time, we should consider the idea that Harvin is combustible in the locker room.
Jordy Nelson – Nelson was ranked too low given his elite production and he is still relatively young. With the recent contract extension, Nelson is locked in as Aaron Rodgers' top receiver. He is a star and needed to be ranked as one.
Victor Cruz – The knee injury is a serious one, and worth a move down the rankings. Sure, there is the expectation that Cruz will be ready for training camp, but will he still have the same burst and quickness?
Hindery
T.Y. Hilton - Hilton just keeps producing week after week. Many seem to assume that he has to cool off and his numbers will come back to earth. However, what if the opposite is true and he continues to improve and posts bigger numbers in the 2nd half (especially TDs)? Hilton’s current pace projects him to 103 catches, 1,732 yards and 4 TDs. That’s a 300-point season in PPR for the 24-year-old speedster. He’s in my top 10 dynasty WRs now.
Donte Moncrief - The rookie WR showed off the physical talent against the Steelers that led many to believe he could be a steal in the 3rd round of the draft. Moncrief put up a 7-113-1 line and looked good doing. It is becoming more and more obvious every week that Andrew Luck is a special passer and his top targets will be fantasy stars. Moncrief is well positioned to establish himself alongside Hilton as one of Luck’s top two WRs now and into the future which should make him a hot commodity for fantasy owners.
Martavis Bryant - The rookie WR out of Clemson has provided a huge spark to the Steelers offense in recent weeks. His 5-83-2 line against the Colts could be a sign of things to come. Bryant looks like a player who could excel as both a deep threat and a big body in the red zone. He also looks like a perfect fit for Ben Roethlisberger. It is possible that Bryant could put up similar numbers to those achieved by Mike Wallace when he played with the Steelers. This rookie WR class is incredibly deep and talented and Bryant is making his case for inclusion alongside guys like Jordan Matthews, Donte Moncrief, and Allen Robinson.
Bischoff
Mohammed Sanu — With No. 1 wide receiver A.J. Green hobbled with a toe injury for the last three weeks; it has fallen upon Sanu to take the No. 1 role in the Bengals offense. To say he has filled that role is an understatement. He has been targeted 32 times over the past three weeks, catching 18 passes and accumulating 299 yards while scoring a touchdown. Sanu has earned the trust of quarterback Andy Dalton and with No. 2 receiver Marvin Jones out for the year, his production should stay at a nice level.
Donte Moncrief — When I watched film of Moncrief last year, I saw a big wide receiver that ran very smooth routes. He isn’t all that explosive as he didn’t create a lot of separation coming out of his breaks but he can find a way to get open and that’s really all he needs to do in the Indianapolis offense with quarterback Andrew Luck at the helm. He is in a competition for the No. 3 role with free-agent acquisition Hakeem Nicks, and the time to act on him is now before he wins the job outright. With receiver Reggie Wayne out Sunday, Moncrief saw 12 targets, catching seven passes for 113 yards and a score.
Harstad
Sammy Watkins - Forget the numbers- though the numbers are certainly very impressive. Sammy Watkins is by far the best rookie wide receiver since Anquan Boldin. He is constantly open, and his stats underrate his true production to this point, as his quarterbacks have missed him on several easy throws. Not since Randy Moss have I seen a rookie able to get so consistently open on every single play. Watkins has already worked his way up to 6th in my rankings, and the only suspense left is whether he'll be able to jump up to the top tier before the end of the season, turning my “big 5” receivers into a “big 6”.
T.Y. Hilton - I've always considered him a Torrey Smith or Lee Evans clone who profiles better as an NFL #2 than a true #1. On the other hand, there's only so long that you can argue with production. And as good as Luck is looking, if Hilton does wind up a true #2 receiver (perhaps to the emerging Donte Moncrief), would it really matter?
Parsons
Donte Moncrief - Moncrief is low-hanging fruit at the wide receiver position. He stepped in for Reggie Wayne and excelled, just like he did with sparse targets earlier in the season. He is an athletic marvel, the metrics love him, and beginning his career with Andrew Luck is not that shabby situation-wise. Moncrief is a given in the top-30 of wide receiver dynasty rankings with an argument for the top-20.
Jeremy Maclin - Over the course of his career, I have been lower on Maclin than the consensus ranker out there. This is a contract year, so the situation could be changing, but for the rest of the season Maclin is a must-start weekly. At 26 years old, he is in his prime production window and even with 50/50 odds of Maclin leaving, he was too low in previous updates.
Tight End
Parsons
Dwayne Allen - Allen continues to flash on a low volume. Given Reggie Wayne’s age, Coby Fleener being a non-factor long-term, and Hakeem Nicks likely exit at the end of the season, Allen is in line to be one of the top targets in an Andrew Luck offense for the foreseeable future. With the muddy tier beyond Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski, and Julius Thomas, Allen gets a boost into the top-10.
Jordan Cameron - Another concussion, in addition to a history of them, dampens his long-term appeal. Plus Josh Gordon is returning and the quarterback play is lacking. The best hope is a change of scenery, but now Cameron is in the Jordan Reed territory of the rankings.
Hindery
Jordan Cameron - At some point during this season, Cameron has to produce if he is going to be ranked near the top of the dynasty TE board. He has yet to have a four-reception game and looks pedestrian in a mediocre Browns offense. TE-whisperer Norv Turner is no longer in town and Cameron looks like just another guy at the TE position in the new offense. Maybe Cameron is still not fully healthy after battling through a shoulder injury, but the longer his struggles continue, the harder it is to give him the benefit of the doubt. I have dropped Cameron behind Jordan Reed, Tyler Eifert and a couple others at TE and he could fall completely out of the top 10 at TE by season’s end if he continues at the current pace.
Tefertiller
Greg Olsen – Olsen is playing at a very high level, despite his poor stat line against Seattle. He still is not very old and needs to be in the conversation for the TE4 in dynasty rankings.
Ladarius Green – Green was ranked very high (TE5) and was adjusted down due to his inability to assert himself. While he still has immense potential, there are too many quality tight ends to have one ranked that highly with meager production. We do expect a breakout in 2015 so he did not move THAT far down the rankings.
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