Each week, Footballguys staff members will share the big movers in their respective Dynasty Rankings. Since the contributors will rotate, please check in weekly. The focus of this article will be on the “why” more than the movement itself. Dynasty Rankings are fluid and we hope that sharing the rationale will help you in your quest to create dynasties with all of your teams. The diversity of rankings will result in a variety of opinions weekly.
Quarterback
Hindery
Kirk Cousins - Cousins is a boom/bust prospect right now. He clearly has an opportunity to “Wally Pipp” Robert Griffin III III and steal the starting job in Washington. In a pass first offense and surrounded by weapons like DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon and Jordan Reed, the Washington starter has a good chance to have fantasy value. It certainly looks less likely that Cousins is the answer today than it did prior to the Week 4 debacle at home against the Giants. Cousins still has a few weeks to make his case to retain the starting job, but he can not wait many more of his limited opportunities or he will find himself relegated to the bench in the short term and possibly for his career.
Blake Bortles - In one and a half games, Bortles has thrown four interceptions, which is certainly a cause for concern. However, he has also shown the ability to move the offense and put points on the board. He has also shown an ability to run, great escapability and some very nice throws on the run. It is early, but Bortles looks like a franchise QB so far and could quickly ascend the dynasty ranks in the next few years. Bortles looks like one of top handful of QB prospects to enter the league in recent years.
Tefertiller
Teddy Bridgewater – Bridgewater saw his first professional start this week. While he has plenty of room to grow and develop, the talent is evident. There is no reason to rank him below aging quarterbacks performing at the same fantasy level. The rookie will improve and has the potential to be elite.
Ryan Tannehill – When coach Philbin refused to endorse his struggling quarterback a week ago, it sent a signal that his future in Miami is very tenuous. Do not let the game against the lowly Raiders fool you, the poor play this season will speed up the clock until Matt Moore sees the field.
Harstad
Philip Rivers - My rankings have been skeptical for a little while on whether Rivers' recent revival was just a short-term throwback. Every week, it's becoming more and more clear that Rivers is still the guy he was from 2008-2010 and not the guy we saw more of during 2011 and 2012. Outside of Peyton Manning, you'd be hard-pressed to find a quarterback who has played better since the start of the 2013 season, and Rivers is still younger than peers like Brees or Romo.
EJ Manuel - Given the tendency for coaching staffs to err on the side of keeping highly-drafted quarterbacks in the starting lineup for too long, the fact that Manuel is getting benched for a guy who was retired two months ago cannot be sugarcoated. Whatever value Manuel had is now on life support.
Running Back
Harstad
Chris Ivory / Chris Johnson - It's becoming more and more clear that, in addition to being younger, Ivory is significantly better as a running back at this stage in their respective careers. I'd expect him to earn a larger role going forward, and at just 26 years old, Ivory could have fantasy value for several more seasons to come.
Jerick McKinnon - The breakout game this weekend was nice, but it's looking like a long shot that Peterson will ever return to the Vikings, and Matt Asiata is not the long-term solution at the position. McKinnon is an athletic marvel and will get plenty of opportunities this season to earn the starting job long-term.
Hindery
Jerick McKinnon - The Vikings rookie RB came into the NFL incredibly raw after playing QB at FCS Georgia Southern, but his impressive tools still earned him a spot in the 3rd round of the draft. That’s nothing to sneeze at in the era of the devalued RB. He was expected to be a bit of a project, but there is no time for that with Adrian Peterson having possibly played his last game as a Viking. McKinnon stepped up in a big way with 18 carries for 135 yards against a poor Falcons run defense. While McKinnon is probably just part of a RBBC with Matt Asiata for now, he clearly is the most talented runner (assuming no Peterson) the Vikings have going forward with his 4.41 speed and surprising power. He should have a chance to stake his claim on the lead back job in Minnesota over the final twelve games this season and is the odds on favorite to be the Week 1 starter in 2015.
Arian Foster - The hamstring injury looks like it is going to stick around for a while, possibly the rest of the season. After offseason back surgery, there were real concerns about Foster’s ability to stay healthy and those concerns look justified. When will Foster be 100% healthy? Will he ever be back to the guy he was pre-injury? Can the Texans offense perform against better defenses? Foster is a short-term asset with questionable short-term value. That’s not a good formula.
Tefertiller
Giovani Bernard – Bernard moves into the top spot. He is one of a select few who have the youth and production on his side. Bernard's role in the Cincinnati offense is growing. Much was made of Jeremy Hill's role, but Bernard seems to be seeing increasing touches and we expect the trend to continue.
Carlos Hyde – The rookie looks like the real deal. Yes, Frank Gore is still in the picture, but we see Hyde as a future star who could take over the lead role by next season.
Adrian Peterson – As expected, the superstar tailback slides down the rankings. He has both the legal issues (and subsequent league consequences) and age working aginst him. Peterson does not have many more seasons left to play football and he is likely to lose the 2014 campaign.
Wide Receiver
Tefertiller
Antonio Brown – Brown moves into the Top 10 at the position as he seems to put up big numbers each and every week. Todd Haley has been able to find ways to scheme Brown open and Roethlisberger finds Brown for big plays almost every game.
Michael Crabtree – While there are several factors working against Crabtree, there is no denying his production early this season. Crabtree has put up solid numbers almost every game this season. The foot injury which limited him against Philadelphia is a concern, though. Yes, there is the possibility that Crabtree leaves via free agency next offseason. However, the age of Anquan Boldin could leave the 49ers in a position to extend the contract of Crabtree.
Wes Welker – Welker is in the WR6 range due to concussion and career longevity questions looming. This is his last season under contract in Denver and could land in a much inferior spot for dynasty owners.
Harstad
Reggie Wayne - It's funny since I'm typically the guy who loves buying injured players, but I wondered whether Wayne would be motivated and able to rehab from a serious injury this late in his career. In hindsight, the answer was a resounding “yes!”
Brian Quick - Tavon Austin has been injured, but Quick has handily outperformed Kenny Britt and, for one week at least, left the newly-returned Stedman Bailey as an afterthought. It was always acknowledged that Quick was extremely raw coming into the league and he would take some time to develop. It's extremely early, but initial returns suggest that he did just that.
Hindery
Kendall Wright - The whole Tennessee offense is a mess with dynasty values depressed across the board. I mentioned Hunter already in this space two weeks ago and will highlight Wright this week. Wright had been ranked as a low end WR2 through the offseason, but that seems overly optimistic at this point. Is there any real difference between Kendall Wright and a guy like Andrew Hawkins ranked way lower in the rankings aside from the fact that Wright is a former 1st round pick?
Brandin Cooks - Cooks has been rising like a meteor through the dynasty rankings all offseason and built on that momentum with a fast start to his rookie season. However, the past two or three weeks should give owners real pause as to Cooks’ real upside. Cooks has not been able to establish himself as a deep threat at all in recent weeks. He has been good on intermediate routes but his production on short passes has completely disappeared. The Saints are still getting him the ball a few times every game on little dump offs and WR screens, but teams are wise to these plays now and Cooks has found absolutely no room to operate. With the Saints offense floundering a bit, they are likely to go back to the drawing board and start eliminating some of these unsuccessful plays. The Saints offense looks more pedestrian than expected and there are still a lot of mouths to feed behind superstar Jimmy Graham so expectations of Cooks emerging as a fantasy star early in his career may be wishful thinking. Cooks is still a valuable commodity and very good young player, but he may not end up being elite or a true difference maker.
Jordy Nelson - Nelson has been ranked pretty high in dynasty circles, but his fast start is showing that he can be a PPR machine in addition to being a big play threat. Prior to last season, Nelson had never caught more than 68 passes. In 2013, he set a new career high with 85 catches. Through four games in 2014, Nelson already has 33 catches, which puts him on pace for 132 receptions this season. While 132 catches may be unrealistic, something like 95-100 catches seems quite possible. Those numbers would put him up there in the truly elite tier of pass catchers. Nelson is only 29 and recently signed a long-term extension to remain in Green Bay where he should remain Aaron Rodgers’ top target. Nelson has to be considered a top 10 dynasty WR at this point.
Tight End
Hindery
Larry Donnell - Donnell has gone from one-week-wonder to four-week-wonder and now has to be considered a legitimate factor at the TE position for dynasty owners. Through four weeks, Donnell is on pace for 100 catches, 936 yards and 16 TDs. While anything near those final stats is highly unlikely, why can’t he put up 65 or 70% of those numbers? The 25-year-old clearly has talent. He is 6’6”, 265 pounds and a smooth athlete. Eli Manning looks rejuvenated and has a clear connection with Donnell. There is a chance that Donnell just keeps producing week after week like Victor Cruz did after a similar start to his career. With the preseason top 15 TE list absolutely decimated by injuries, production is at a premium and Donnell looks like a guy who can provide it.
Harstad
Martellus Bennett - I'm not going to go too crazy about Bennett going off when both Marshall and Jeffery are clearly limited by nagging injuries. At the same time, the entire Chicago passing game is still humming, and Bennett is clearly an integral part of that attack.
Travis Kelce - This is what the early stages of the leap to stardom look like.
Tefertiller
Dennis Pitta – Pitta falls a long way down the rankings with the hip career-threatening injury. There is a very real chance the tight end never plays football again. Owen Daniels is not the answer, either. Avoid wasting waiver wire or trade capital on the aging Daniels.
Larry Donnell – Eli Manning looks for the big tight end in the endzone. The Giants even ran a fade pattern for Donnell on one of his touchdowns. No, Donnell is not fleet of foot and will not make big plays after the catch. He will continue to rack up the catches and be a threat to score each week. We expect Manning to continue to force feed the big tight end just like he gave big targets to Brandon Myers and Martellus Bennett in years gone by.
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