Each week, Footballguys staff members will share the big movers in their respective Dynasty Rankings. Since the contributors will rotate, please check in weekly. The focus of this article will be on the “why” more than the movement itself. Dynasty Rankings are fluid and we hope that sharing the rationale will help you in your quest to create dynasties with all of your teams. The diversity of rankings will result in a variety of opinions weekly.
Quarterback
Parsons
Robert Griffin III III - Despite a high completion rate against the Texans in Week 1, Griffin was thrown around like a ragdoll in the pocket and missed his downfield passes. The injury risk is real by my eye and if the rushing does not return to the 2012 level then elite upside is not in the fantasy cards for Griffin. Outside of a turnaround in both regards, Griffin is down into the QB10-15 range of my rankings.
Geno Smith - Rushing production is a quarterback fast-track to top-15 or top-18 weekly status. Smith has that. The remaining upside is based on developing as a passer. The addition of Eric Decker, Jace Amaro, and Chris Johnson will certainly help Smith through the air. Outside of a few bad decisions moving in and from the pocket against Oakland, Smith played a pretty clean game. Smith, once outside my top-25 at quarterback, is now in the QB19-22 range.
Grant
Cam Newton – Downgrade. This isn’t a big downgrade and if you have Newton on your roster, it doesn’t mean that it’s time to dump him. But the reality is that Newton missed his first game last week due to a rip injury. His style of play leaves him open to taking hits and the ribs are going to be a concern for most of the season. If it limits his running ability, or hampers his throwing motion, he could potentially miss additional games down the road. After three full NFL seasons, even Superman is a little vulnerable.
Robert Griffin III III – Downgrade. Another small bump down for RGIII. He stayed clean in the Houston game and was reasonably accurate with his throws, but he didn’t have a TD pass and his running game was non-existent. It’s not time to completely abandon ship with Griffin yet, but owners need to be concerned that he’s not the same guy you fell in love with as a rookie.
EJ Manuel – Upgrade. Manuel is probably a QB3 option in most dynasty leagues, and he may not even be on a roster in leagues with less than 12 teams, but he had a good game this week on the road against a rebuilt Chicago defense. Manuel kept his team in the game, and extended plays and drives with his legs. He even had a nice rushing TD in the second quarter to tie the game. He has a nice group of young receivers around him and a stable of RBS that can shoulder some of the load as well. Manuel isn’t quite ready to be in your starting lineup, but his play this week certainly warrants consideration as a backup.
Cummings
Matt Cassel- I was really low on Cassel because I thought the odds of him starting more than a couple of games in 2014 were pretty low. He (and the Vikings) impressed me in week one, and now it’s much easier to see him as a viable QB2 at least for this season. The team views Teddy Bridgewater as the quarterback of the future but with their schedule and weapons it’s likely that Cassel wins enough to keep him in the starting lineup.
Robert Griffin III III- I was hoping that a new coaching staff and DeSean Jackson would help elevate Griffin’s game closer to his potential but that sure didn’t seem to be the case in week one. To put up six points in week one with Alfred Morris averaging more than six yards per carry is really disturbing. Griffin’s pocket presence doesn’t look like it’s improved at all.
Shaun Hill- Any idea that Hill was going to provide some upside in St. Louis was squashed by the Vikings in week one. He may get another start at some point this year, but the Rams offense didn’t look like they’ll be good enough to elevate him to a rosterable player. Hill left the game due to a quad injury, but it just as easily could have been because of his poor play.
Tefertiller
EJ Manuel – Manuel dropping again, even with the road win in Chicago. It just was not enough for me to buy into Manuel long term. The signing of Kyle Orton was an omen of how he is viewed by the Buffalo brass. It is possible that Manuel only lasts a few games under center before Orton is inserted into the lineup. He was given a $3 million signing bonus. The veteran was not signed to be a backup. Buffalo traded its 2015 first round pick in order to move up for Sammy Watkins so it is likely that one of the two will be the 2015 starter.
Running Back
Cummings
Doug Martin- I still believe in Martin’s talent but the Buccaneers horrendous line play and another injury scare have me backing off of him. The Panthers have one of the best defensive lines in football so I wouldn’t totally sell Martin if he’s healthy, because you’re not going to get much for him right now anyway.
Carlos Hyde- Hyde flashed in his debut and looked like a faster Gore clone. He’s a perfect fit for this offense and already seeing a share of the carries. Year one may be a bit frustrating as long as Gore stays healthy, but whenever Hyde starts getting the lion’s share of the carries he’s going to be special.
Ray Rice- It’s hard to see Rice ever being a starting running back again in the NFL. He almost certainly won’t play again this year and after that he’s an aging running back that hasn’t played in over a year. This opens up an opportunity in 2014 for Bernard Pierce and Justin Forsett but it’s unlikely that the running back of the future is on the Ravens team right now.
Tefertiller
Ray Rice - Rice was expected back in the lineup beginning week three. After the video surfaced Monday of his domestic violence situation, Rice had his contract terminated by the Ravens and has been indefinitely suspended by the NFL. What a turn of events for dynasty owners. At this time, I can not suggest any players moving up, especially Bernard Pierce, who played poorly Sunday against the Bengals. The Baltimore backfield looks to be a full-blown committee and Rice is barely a “hold” with the hope he can play next season.
Joique Bell - Bell was ranked too low. I have moved him up, but other still have the bruising Lions back ranked more highly. To win games, the Lions will need to assert the running game. Also, it is likley that the new regime will use Bell to pound the ball between the tackles and get Bush the ball in space.
Jerick McKinnon – The rookie is a player to watch. I had him ranked low thinking the youngster would struggle for touches each game. In reality, the rookie is talented, and seems poised to take over when Peterson is either injured or retires. Given the superstar running back's age, this may come sooner than most realize.
Parsons
Carlos Hyde - There are few running backs to possess the combination of youth and productive upside in the current dynasty landscape. Hyde showed well, albeit against a hapless Dallas defense, and had an edge to his running style. Frank Gore is on the clear downside and the 49ers backfield looks like a committee this year. Hyde may not be a weekly starter until 2015, but flex play consideration is warranted until then at worst. Hyde moves into my RB8-10 range.
Zac Stacy - The committee approach looks like a reality in St. Louis, plus the passing game may not keep the Rams in many games this year. With Benny Cunningham looming in the short-term and Tre Mason the long-term talent, Stacy’s production appeal is murky at a minimum.
Trent Richardson - I have seen enough. Officially. Richardson is sluggish. Donald Brown looked better in 2013 and Ahmad Bradshaw certainly looked better in Week 1. This past offseason will be the most market value Richardson has going forward.
Grant
Justin Forsett & Bernard Pierce – Upgrade. Forsett is going to be the hot waiver wire upgrade this week after his big performance. The departure of Ray Rice almost cements him as the #1 RB that people will want. However, let’s not forget that this is Justin Forsett we’re talking about. He’s never had more than 118 carries in a season and he has bounced around from team to team over the last few seasons. Bernard Pierce is younger and also deserves an upgrade now that Rice is gone. It could be a two back system in Baltimore this season and both of these guys will see plenty of action, but Pierce is probably the better long term prospect.
Carlos Hyde – Upgrade. Yes, it was only against Dallas and he shared the load with Frank Gore, but Hyde looked pretty solid in his first NFL game. He’s definitely a flex consideration now though, and if Gore goes down to injury, Hyde will instantly step into to some big numbers.
Trent Richardson – Downgrade. They played from behind this week, so Andrew Luck was forced to throw the ball a lot more but Trent Richardson didn’t show very much with the limited touches he had. He had a nice 16 yard reception and caught a couple short passes for medium gains, but his 3.3 YPC were not impressive at all. Richardson was once a top rookie running back pick. Now, he’s quickly becoming a backup on your fantasy team.
Wide Receiver
Tefertiller
Robert Woods - Woods has been ranked too high all offseason with the hopes his talent will finally prevail over Mike Williams. Yes, he had a solid game against the Bears Sunday. When the quarterback issues arise – and they will soon enough – the second year player will see his value decrease sharply. When that happens, just remember that Woods is still talented and a player to buy on the cheap.
Emmanuel Sanders – The new Bronco pass catcher has been ranked too low most of the summer. His speed will be utilized by the Denver passing game. Expect big plays from Sanders, especially with Wes Welker out of the lineup. The Broncos will continue to find ways to get Sanders the ball in space. He was signed to make big plays.
Parsons
Markus Wheaton - The Steelers lack passing game weapons and Wheaton performed admirably in Week 1. I remain skeptical of his long-term upside and talent level, but he moves in the WR40-45 range due to age and his now usable production level.
Brian Quick - Back from the dead and appears to be firmly ahead of Kenny Britt as the outside receiver of choice in St. Louis. The Rams also appear to not be very good, so comeback and garbage time volume is a likely second half trend this season.
Grant
Brandin Cooks – Upgrade. Welcome to the NFL! Cooks looked hot in this game, despite being the third receiving option behind Marques Colston and Jimmy Graham. Yet he showed some soft hands and was the only receiver that managed to reach the end zone for the Saints in a tough division game. Drew Brees is going to throw the ball a lot this season with the question marks that the Saints have at running back. With Colston and Graham pulling the stronger coverage away from him, Cooks should see plenty of passes thrown his way each game. A definite upgrade, especially in PPR leagues.
Victor Cruz – Downgrade. Cruz looked terrible on Monday night against the Lions. The offensive line couldn’t keep the pressure off of Eli Manning, and even when he tried to force the ball into Cruz, he was always blanketed and the passes were contested. He had several passes hit him in the hands that could have been caught, and he just lacked the explosive play that we normally see from him. Maybe he’ll bounce back when Odell Beckham Jr is back in the lineup, but for now, the passing game of the Giants is a big question mark and so is Cruz.
Cummings
Brandin Cooks- I expected Cooks to be the most productive rookie receiver this year but even I didn’t expect him to look that good in week one. Cooks has the perfect opportunity and skill set to succeed in a high-flying offense. The only thing we had to worry about was targets and after week one that concern looks to be silly.
Markus Wheaton- Wheaton is one of the first guys to make me say “I was wrong” in the 2014 season. He looked extremely comfortable in his role as the WR2 in Pittsburgh and doesn’t have a lot of competition for targets.
Allen Hurns - I’m always skeptical of the preseason darlings, but now that Hurns has scored a couple of real NFL touchdowns he needs to at least be on the radar. I won’t move him too high until he has some success with Cecil Shorts back in the lineup, but if he’s one of the top two when Blake Bortles takes over he could have a great opportunity.
Tight End
Parsons
Jason Witten - I was skeptical of his continued rock-solid production this offseason. Witten was an afterthought against the 49ers as he gained no separation on his routes and Tony Romo, once constantly looking for Witten on key third downs, went to Cole Beasley in those same moments. Gavin Escobar saw an end zone target as a split out receiver as well. Witten is not an automatic weekly starter anymore.
Travis Kelce - Kelce has looked the part in preseason and in the opening game of the season. I am still on the low side compared to the general dynasty community on his long-term prospects, but Kelce moves up my board. He just missed a touchdown this past week and the Chiefs look to have more catch-up mode games than not this season, needing any and all playmakers to have a chance.
Grant
Dennis Pitta TE BAL – Upgrade. Another consequence of Ray Rice being cut from the team is that Joe Flacco is going to have to throw the ball more in Baltimore. While Steve Smith and Torrey Smith will certainly get their share of passes, Pitta also proved that he can be a receiving threat. He’s not going to have 10 receptions every week, but he’s definitely one of Flacco’s favorite targets and he’s going to see his fair share of action. Owen Daniels will steal some of the attention, but Pitta is clearly the TE that you want from the Ravens, and he has a real chance for a top 5 finish if he stays healthy.
Martellus Bennett TE CHI – Upgrade. The Black Unicorn may have had some preseason challenges to overcome, but he’s still a big part of the Chicago passing game and he showed it again this week. Bennett is still the #3 receiver on the team behind Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall, but his size and athleticism make him a big target, especially down near the red zone. He caught the first TD pass from Jay Cutler this season and chipped in another 7 receptions throughout the game. He’s a tough guy to bring down once he has the ball and he’s frequently going to be lined up against smaller, slower defenders. He’s definitely worth an upgrade this week.
Tefertiller
Heath Miller – The Pittsburgh tight end moved up considerably with the thought he could be a Top 10 performer for the season. Yes, he is getting older. However, the production is there and the tight end position offers upside players every week. The Steelers are a passing team, first and foremost, and Miller will benefit.
Cummings
Jordan Reed- I still love Reed’s talent but the injury concerns are more than just concussions now. He came into the game nursing a thumb injury and left with a hamstring injury. It also doesn’t help that Robert Griffin III III’s development seems to be slowing.
