Photo: Ron Chenoy, USA Today Sports

Each week, Footballguys staff members will share the big movers in their respective Dynasty Rankings.  Since the contributors will rotate, please check in weekly.  The focus of this article will be on the “why” more than the movement itself.  Dynasty Rankings are fluid and we hope that sharing the rationale will help you in your quest to create dynasties with all of your teams.  The diversity of rankings will result in a variety of opinions weekly.

Quarterback

Bischoff
Brock Osweiler — This is as forward a move as can be made in dynasty formats, but people around the Broncos think Osweiler is more than capable of taking the current Broncos roster and putting up very good numbers.  Now consider that Peyton Manning is one bad hit away from missing time, or calling it a career and the move to add Osweiler is a move that should be made on his upside alone.  If there is a spot to burn on a roster, it should be burned on a player like Osweiler.

Derek Carr — Raiders rookie quarterback Derek Carr has consistently been the best rookie quarterback this season. He and Vikings quarterback Teddy Bridgewater have both played at a nice level for first-year signal callers, but Carr has thrown 20 touchdowns to Bridgewater’s 13 and that matters from a fantasy perspective.  Carr should get a boost of talent through the 2015 NFL draft in a player like Alabama wide receiver Amari Cooper or Louisville receiver DeVante Parker, and the addition of talent will push Carr to better things in 2015 and beyond.

Tefertiller
Blake Bortles – Bortles was ranked as a Top 7 dynasty quarterback and it was too high.  Yes, the Jaguars will have a very good young receiving corps in the coming seasons.  However, it remains to be seen whether the young passer will be a shoo in to develop into a fantasy starter.  Bortles is still a low-end QB1 just for the sake of upside.  

Hindery
Peyton Manning - For the past couple seasons it has appeared that Peyton Manning may be immune to the normal decline experienced by nearly every QB as he approached age 40. The record setting season in 2013 followed by a red-hot start to 2014 had Manning as high as 3rd in some dynasty QB rankings (mine included). However, as the season has progressed, age has begun to take its toll on Manning. There is a little less zip on his passes (particularly deep balls and throws towards the sidelines) and teams have begun to figure out how he must be defended. In addition, the Broncos seem to have come to the conclusion that they cannot win with Peyton Manning throwing the ball all over the yard and have made a concerted effort to establish the run over the past month. The result has seen Manning’s fantasy value plummet as his stats have returned to the level of mere mortals. Manning’s dynasty value was and is predicated entirely upon his current value and if he no longer provides a big weekly advantage, his value plummets. That appears to be the case and it no longer seems a safe bet that Manning will continue to be a high end QB1 going forward. It is hard to say how far Manning should fall down the dynasty QB rankings but there is a strong case that he no longer belongs in the top 10.

Johnny Manziel - It would be unwise to draw too many conclusions based upon less than six quarters of playing time, but Manziel owners have to be extremely discouraged by what they have seen so far. Manziel was always a little bit of a lottery ticket (both for the Browns and fantasy owners) that could either burst onto the scene as a fantasy star (due to his rushing ability) or be a complete and total bust. Manziel will probably get more chances next season, but the early results indicate that stardom is even more of a long shot than originally believed. Manziel is still worth holding onto if you own him and worth a later pick in startup drafts, but it would be unwise to expect that he will ever develop into a fantasy QB1.

Harstad
Russell Wilson - Consensus is pretty much unanimous that Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers are the clear top-tier fantasy quarterbacks right now. In my mind, Wilson and Cam Newton have separated themselves from the rest of the pack to form the second tier, and they're as far above the third-tier guys as Rodgers and Luck are above them.

Brock Osweiler / Ryan Nassib - The brothers Manning are probably not going anywhere this offseason. On the other hand, it wouldn't absolutely shock me if they did- if Peyton won a superbowl and opted to retire or if New York decided to move on from Eli to realize the $17m in cap savings. Both backups are worth stashing in deeper leagues, just in case something interesting happens.

Running Back

Hindery
Jeremy Hill - From week 9 through week 16, Jeremy Hill is 3rd in the NFL in rushing yards. Normally, a 22-year old who was the 2nd RB drafted having this type of stretch would be considered a top 5 dynasty RB no questions asked. However, the presence of Giovani Bernard in Cincinnati has left Hill’s perceived value lagging behind what his production indicates his value should be. After yet another huge rushing game, this time on national TV against the league’s #2 rushing defense, it will be much harder to dismiss Hill. Bernard does limit his upside to some extent (he will not be an every down back like Le’Veon Bell), the Bengals should run the ball enough that being the bigger part of a committee backfield should be enough for Hill to be a RB1 going forward. Hill is a great target for early offseason trades if the conventional wisdom does not catch up to the reality of Hill’s role in the Bengals offense.

LeSean McCoy - This has been an extremely frustrating season for McCoy owners. He has not had the touchdowns or the reception totals that made him the consensus top dynasty RB over the past few years. Furthermore, the eye test indicates that all the touches are starting to have some impact upon McCoy. He still looks good, but does not have the elite explosiveness of recent seasons. Adam Harstad has done some strong research on “touches vs. age” and it tends to indicate that age is more closely correlated with RB decline than total touches (age is more important than “wear and tear”). However, McCoy may be an exception to the rule as he could end up hitting the career wall a bit earlier than his age would indicate he should. Lastly, there are some rumblings that McCoy’s roster spot is not safe going into 2015. McCoy has a cap number of $11M with only $1M of that guaranteed, so the Eagles would save $10M by cutting him. Perhaps that seems unlikely, but one would have said the same thing about Desean Jackson at this time last year. Chip Kelly seems confident that he can fit younger/cheaper guys into his system and still put up big scoring totals. The 2015 NFL draft is going to be loaded with RBs and with the type of RB talent we have seen falling to the 2nd round in recent years (Bell, Hill, Bernard, Lacy, Hyde, etc.) it may be tempting to grab a top young rusher and invest the $10M in savings into improving a porous defensive backfield. Whether or not McCoy is cut this offseason, it does seem pretty clear that he is not likely to stick in Philadelphia for many years going forward and his value could fall off a cliff pretty quickly. If you can get top 5 RB value for McCoy early this offseason, now is the time to sell.

Lamar Miller - Miller seems like he has been around forever. He was an extremely hot dynasty commodity about this time two years ago going into his second pro season. When Reggie Bush left in free agency, it was assumed that Miller would take the starting job and never look back in 2013. That never really happened and Miller’s stock fell precipitously. Miller entered 2014 without much hype but has quietly put together a strong season and looks established as the starting back in an improving young Dolphins offense going forward. Speaking of young, Lamar Miller is still only 23 years old and just now entering what should be his prime years. Miller may not be the hot commodity he was when he was 21, but he is a great target who should have many productive seasons ahead of him as he continues to grow into the role of lead NFL running back.

Bischoff
Carlos Hyde — The 49ers are a team in transition, but they are still a team that will produce good numbers at the running back position because of makeup of their offensive line and their desire to control the ball. It is unclear what is happening with Frank Gore, but Hyde is a very similar back and if Gore and the 49ers were to part ways, Hyde would be a very intriguing player moving forward. He isn’t Gore, as Gore has been one of the best backs in the NFL for quite some time, but he has talent and his style is perfectly suited for the 49ers.

Devonta Freeman — Falcons running back Steven Jackson is a very big running back that is really getting old in terms of the position, and Freeman is a player that should benefit next year with more playing time in his second year. Freeman is more a speed back than he is a power option, but he is capable of a reasonable workload and can be a threat as a third down back out of the backfield.

Harstad
Jeremy Hill - I'm not the biggest of Jeremy Hill fans. Giovani Bernard will still play a role in that offense, and I'm not really sure how the workload for both backs shakes out over the coming seasons. On the other hand, as terrible as the current RB crop is, one doesn't have to be a huge Jeremy Hill fan to have him ranked very high at the position. He's young and he's currently productive. That's more than pretty much anyone else can say.

Jonathan Stewart - Don't look now, but with Carolina finally turning the backfield over to Stewart, he actually leads the NFL in rushing over the last four weeks. He's still young enough to have a couple more quality seasons, and his talent has been obvious since he first set foot on the field in the NFL.

Tefertiller
C.J. Anderson – It is difficult to predict any other back starting the 2015 in the lineup.  Anderson has seized the starting job and flourished.  He runs with great burst and gives the Broncos an ability to run the ball any given week.

Jerick McKinnon – McKinnon moves up the rankings, even after being placed on injured reserve.  He looks like a great dynasty buy low as many owners do not appreciate the transition McKinnon has made from small-school quarterback to NFL tailback.

Terrance West – West is looking better as the season progresses.  He and Isaiah Crowell will form a formidable duo for many years to come.  West still has plenty of room to develop, but his ceiling is quite high.  The Browns coaching staff has continued to mold and develop the rookie runner.

Wide Receiver

Tefertiller
Cordarrelle Patterson – The second-year player continues to slide in the rankings as he has now been passed on the depth chart by Charles Johnson.  Patterson still has plenty of potential; he just needs to work on the finer points of the wide receiver position.  

Kenny Stills – Stills has provided a Drew Brees with a great avenue for big plays.  Marques Colston is not expected back in New Orleans, leaving Stills and Brandin Cooks to start at the receiver positions.  Stills has made progress as in year two and will continue to get better.

Justin Blackmon – The oft-troubled receiver moves up the rankings with the expectations that he will be reinstated during the 2015 season.  Many forget how dominant Blackmon was in the four games he played in 2013, even on a poor Jacksonville offense.  

Harstad
Paul Richardson Jr - After four straight games under 200 yards passing, Russell Wilson seems to be hitting his stride again, averaging 243 yards over his last five games and setting a new career high for passing yards against a stingy Cardinals defense. If this is a sign of things to come, Richardson stands to be one of the primary beneficiaries of Seattle's offensive shift.

DeAndre Hopkins - Hopkins seems to have been able to take over the lead receiver role in Houston with minimal fuss, and according to Chase Stuart has a higher percentage of his team's receiving yards than any other player in the league. That certainly bodes well for his fantasy future, when Andre Johnson moves on and Houston gets a real quarterback.

Hindery
Donte Moncrief - Moncrief is still young and definitely still has the potential to emerge as the long-term #2 WR in Indianapolis. However, the fact that he has not been able to really take the bull by the horns and seize the very real opportunity in front of him in recent weeks has to give his owners some pause. He is being out-produced by the likes of Hakeem Nicks over the past few weeks. I am not going to drop Moncrief too far down my dynasty WR rankings, but he is not going to make the big leap that he potentially would have had he been able to build upon prior success. Moncrief will be a hot commodity this offseason as many will expect him to breakout in a major way in year 2. However, do not be surprised if Moncrief ends up being more like Justin Hunter than Alshon Jeffery. If the trade price is reasonable, he should still be considered a buy but do not go too overboard because there is a substantial risk that Moncrief never develops into a reliable fantasy option.

Bischoff
Paul Richardson Jr — Seahawks wide receiver Paul Richardson Jr is a truly dynamic threat because of his rare speed, but he came into the NFL needing some work on his route running and his ability to beat the press at the line of scrimmage. He has been more involved in the offense over the past few weeks and his role could expand the final week of the season and into the playoffs.  There’s going to be some change with the Seahawks offense next year and Richardson should be a big part of their plan.

Cody Latimer — Broncos wide receiver Cody Latimer is not on this list because of his play in his rookie season.  He is on the list because wide receiver Demaryius Thomas and tight end Julius Thomas are both free agents and it’s unclear as to whether both will be resigned.  The Broncos selected Latimer late in the second round and he’ll step into a very nice situation if either Tomas doesn’t come back.

Tight End

Harstad
Luke Willson - Like Paul Richardson Jr, Luke Willson stands to potentially be one of the biggest beneficiaries if Seattle switches to a pass-heavy offensive attack. Willson is an athletic marvel, one of the rare tight ends with deep speed to run away from the secondary, (a skill he showed off to great effect this past weekend).

Hindery
Charles Clay - Clay was a player who I believed was due for a big breakout season in 2014, but an early knee injury sapped his explosiveness and he was a non-factor for much of the year. In recent weeks, Clay has gotten healthier and again looks like the rare player who can be a mismatch nightmare for opposing defenses. In his last two games, Clay has 12 catches for 173 yards. Clay is only 25 and set to hit free agency where he should be a very hot commodity. It would not surprise me if Clay ends up being this year’s Emmanuel Sanders who finds himself on a new team and explodes into an impact fantasy player because he has that type of talent. With the dynasty TE ranks looking pretty barren as most of the youngsters had disappointing 2014 seasons, Clay is a candidate to shoot up the dynasty rankings and a great target for early offseason trades.

Jordan Reed - Reed came back from injury and had a big Week 13 performance against Indianapolis and it felt like he was finally back. Perhaps he would live up to the high expectations most had for him entering 2014. He has since followed that up with three straight clunkers, totaling 8 catches and 43 yards over the past three weeks. Combine Reed’s lack of production, lengthy injury history and the mess that is the Washington offense and it is hard to have much faith in him going forward. He is going to sink like a rock in my upcoming TE dynasty rankings update.

Tefertiller
Dennis Pitta – Pitta looks to play in 2015.  If healthy from the hip injury, Pitta has to move up the rankings.  He was an every-week starter for fantasy owners and can easily re-gain that status this offseason if he shows good health.  Now is the time to buy while everyone remembers the gruesome hip injury.

Mychal Rivera – Rivera has looked athletic and makes plays after the catch.  As his quarterback play improves, so will Rivera's fantasy numbers.  Now that we know he can play, Rivera needs to be in the conversation for the Top 10 at the position.

The Footballguys.com staffers have a dynasty-centric Google Hangout which will continue through the offseason.  Here is a link to watch.