Each week, Footballguys staff members will share the big movers in their respective Dynasty Rankings. Since the contributors will rotate, please check in weekly. The focus of this article will be on the “why” more than the movement itself. Dynasty Rankings are fluid and we hope that sharing the rationale will help you in your quest to create dynasties with all of your teams. The diversity of rankings will result in a variety of opinions weekly.
Quarterback
Bischoff
Johnny Manziel — The time is now for Johnny Football and the Browns are counting on him to give their offense a jolt. He’s guaranteed to do that with his feet and he does have receiver Josh Gordon and tight end Cameron Jordan as weapons. It’s not tough to see Manziel put up good numbers going forward because of the yardage he will add running the ball. With a nice showing to end the season, Manziel should entrench himself as the Browns’ starter in the 2015 season. The Browns get nice matchups with Cincinnati and Carolina during the next two weeks.
Geno Smith — The New York Jets are a bad football team and there is some speculation that head coach Rex Ryan won’t be back next year. If that happens, it is hard to see a situation where a new head coach comes in without “his” guy at the quarterback position. Smith is in a bad spot here but the reality is that if he isn’t viewed as a franchise type quarterback he won’t have much of an opportunity to play after this season.
Harstad
Russell Wilson – Peyton Manning and Drew Brees are struggling and potentially in decline. Stafford has been up and down, and in my opinion has never been more than a fringe top-10 QB by NFL standards. Cam Newton remains firmly entrenched at #4 for me, but all of the contenders for “best non-Luck, non-Rodgers QB in dynasty” have thinned out in an awful hurry, leaving Russell Wilson the only player with a claim on the title in my mind.
Ben Roethlisberger – What a difference a season makes. A year ago, Roethlisberger's career was winding down, hastened by the unbelievable punishment he'd taken. Today he's putting up a top-5 fantasy season and, with Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown, (as well as complementary pieces like Heath Miller and Martavis Bryant), could arguably lay claim to having the best skill-position support in the entire league. Roethlisberger is a future Hall of Famer and, surprisingly, just one year older than Aaron Rodgers. Perhaps he has a lot more left in the tank than we thought.
Hindery
Matthew Stafford - While Calvin Johnson was out (and before that when Johnson was playing at less than 100%), Stafford’s production was way down over past seasons. His dynasty stock took a hit in the process. However, in recent weeks the return of “Megatron” has brought Stafford’s numbers back towards the heights he reached in past seasons. Over the past two weeks, he has thrown for over 700 yards and totaled 5 passing TDs. Furthermore, there is reason to be bullish again about Stafford’s future. Calvin Johnson is an unmatched genetic freak and back to putting up ridiculous numbers. Golden Tate is the best #2 WR that Stafford has ever had to work with and should provide a nice option if teams are committing two and three defenders to Johnson’s side. Lastly, top 10 overall draft choice Eric Ebron has shown some signs in recent weeks that he too is starting to emerge as a solid option in the pass game with the potential to be much more than that. Should Ebron continue to emerge, Stafford will have a trio of receiving targets that will be the envy of the league and he has plenty of arm talent to make great use of his weapons. Andrew Luck is in his own class, but the 26-year-old Stafford belongs back in the conversation of 2nd best under-30 dynasty QB in the NFL.
Running Back
Hindery
Eddie Lacy - Lacy’s play has steadily improved as the year has gone on and, after a brief tumble due to his slow start, has been slowly working his way back up the RB rankings. Lacy is now the clear #2 “young RB” behind only Le’Veon Bell. In fact, he is pulling away from former peers like Giovani Bernard and Montee Ball. There is even a solid case for Lacy as the #2 overall RB due to his youth and RB1 production in arguably the NFL’s top offense.
Tre Mason - Over the past month, Mason has emerged as probably the most valuable rookie RB in a class that has mostly underwhelmed. The 21-year-old Mason has been averaging just over 20 touches per game for the past month and both he and the St. Louis Rams are flourishing. The Rams have gone 3-1 with a close loss at San Diego as the only blemish on their record. Mason has averaged over 100 yards from scrimmage per game and looks like he belongs as a starting RB in the NFL. Fisher has always been the type of coach who likes to give his top rusher as many touches as he can handle and Mason looks to be the next in line for workhorse status. There are still enough questions about the potency of the St. Louis offense and Mason’s ability to produce as a receiver out of the backfield to have some hesitancy in anointing Mason the next big thing. However, if any rookie rusher is going to break out next season, the smart money at this point is on Mason.
Bischoff
Theo Riddick — Riddick has out-played fellow running back Reggie Bush this year and an argument can be made that the Lions could move forward without Bush as soon as next season. Riddick possesses a great combination of third down receiving skills and he does a very nice job of getting positive yards in the running game.
Harstad
Andre Ellington – a year ago, Bruce Arians told the media that the reason he wasn't giving an electric Ellington more work was that he worried Ellington couldn't hand it; he'd given Willie Parker too much work in Pittsburgh and cut his career short as a result. This year, Arians seemed to do a complete 180, loading Ellington to the gills with touches, but it seems that initial fear might have proven correct. All season long, Ellington failed to deliver the same electricity he provided last year, and he ends his season on injured reserve after the pounding was too much for him.
Jonathan Stewart – Stewart owners are notorious gluttons for punishment, seeking out the tiniest reason for optimism knowing full well it will probably just result in crushed dreams again. Still, just because a coin came up heads 10 times in a row doesn't mean it'll come up heads again- that's the gambler's fallacy. Stewart is averaging 4.9 ypc, bringing his career average up to 4.7. That's one of the top 5 active averages, alongside Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson, DeAngelo Williams, and LeSean McCoy. Surprisingly, Stewart is still three months younger than Charles and could easily still have a bit of a run left in him to help justify that eternal faith.
Pasquino
Latavius Murray – Murray was back in action last week and so much for being eased back in – he had 23 carries for 76 yards and 2-9 receiving against San Francisco. Murray exploded a few weeks ago with 112 yards and two scores against Kansas City before being forced from the game with a concussion. His explosiveness in the past few weeks (and another game upcoming against the Chiefs) is making him a prime candidate to be the starter next season.
Jonathan Stewart – Stewart found the fountain of youth in the past two weeks and he just ran for over 100 yards for the first time since 2010. Stewart finally looks healthy and appears to be ready to be a feature tailback once again.
Wide Receiver
Pasquino
Odell Beckham Jr– I have been high on this young wide receiver all year, but even that was an underestimate. The rookie made arguably the best catch I have ever seen against Dallas and he continues to post WR1 numbers week after week. I see Beckham as a Top 10 dynasty WR at this point.
Charles Johnson / Cordarrelle Patterson – Charles Johnson has taken over as the “X” receiver for Minnesota, and he has not disappointed at all. Teddy Bridgewater is showing good chemistry with the young wideout as he develops as a solid starting option.
Donte Moncrief / Reggie Wayne, Hakeem Nicks – Moncrief scored two long touchdowns for Andrew Luck in Week 13, but he only had four targets and three catches. Last week he moved ahead of Hakeem Nicks on the depth chart, and now Reggie Wayne is showing his age with drops – and rumors are swirling that Wayne may get demoted or shut down soon. All that spells “huge value” for Moncrief as he develops into what could be a starting role not just in December but for 2015 and beyond.
Hindery
Randall Cobb - Predictably, Cobb’s prodigious TD production has slowed. In fact, Cobb has not scored in four games after racking up 10 TDs through the Packers’ first nine games. In addition, Cobb has only a few more games as a Green Bay Packer before he hits free agency this offseason. While I have always felt the odds are high that he ends up inking a long-term deal to stick around as Aaron Rodgers’ #2 target, many others are less bullish on his odds. The cold streak, the uncertainty regarding his future and the emergence of this historic rookie WR class all combine to push Cobb down the WR rankings a few spots. The next three months also provide what could be the last opportunity to buy Cobb at a reasonable price. If he does indeed lock himself in long-term as a key piece of the Green Bay offense, his value will only rise as Jordy Nelson ages and Cobb potentially emerges as the top target on the frozen tundra.
A.J. Green - I have had Green as the overall top dynasty player for most of the past year. He has been nearly untouchable as a trade target for most of his career. However, there was a stretch mid-season during which Green’s injury and mediocre production caused his stock to fall a bit. There were some actual A.J. Green trades in my leagues and, for once, the price for Green wasn’t absurd. Green’s ridiculous production over the past month however is likely to drive his price back up into the stratosphere. Over his last four games, Green has 33 catches, 529 yards and 3 touchdowns. That production over a full season would equate to 132 catches, 2,116 yards and 12 TDs and should serve as a reminder of what the 26-year-old superstar is capable of when healthy. There is still a strong case for others (Le’Veon Bell, Julio Jones and Mike Evans) as the top overall dynasty asset but Green’s case is still as strong as any.
Odell Beckham Jr- I have included Beckham, Jr. in a few previous installments as a riser, but he deserves mention again because he keeps jumping up tiers and should now reside in the most elite tier of WRs alongside players like Demaryius Thomas and Calvin Johnson. There may soon be a great case that he even belongs above those types of elite players. Beckham, Jr. just turned 22 a month ago. Over his past six games he has 49 catches, 723 yards and 3 TDs. For perspective, over a full season, those numbers project to 131 catches, 1,928 yards and 8 touchdowns. Just insane numbers for a guy who started the six game stretch as a 21-year-old. Another impressive number to consider is that Beckham, Jr. has amassed those 49 receptions on only 68 targets for a catch rate of 72%. There’s no real ceiling on Beckham, Jr.’s potential and almost anything seems possible. In fact, he probably belongs at least in the conversation for top overall dynasty asset if he is able to keep up his Herculean pace over the final three games of the season.
Golden Tate - Tate exploded onto the scene in Detroit with an early season stretch that included 100+ receiving games 5 times in six outings, including a couple 150+ yard games. It looked like Tate was poised to possibly become a PPR force for a long time in the pass happy Lions offense. However, Tate’s production has cooled off in a major way since the healthy return of Calvin Johnson last month. Over the past four games, Tate has only 18 catches, 277 yards and no touchdowns. While it was expected that his production would fall off with Johnson’s return, it is becoming clear that Stafford is still going to force feed Johnson and there is probably not going to be enough left over for Tate to be anything more than an unexciting high end WR3 type play. When the season is over, Tate’s overall numbers will be eye catching, but everyone needs to remember that he did most of his damage without Calvin Johnson in the lineup.
Bischoff
Donte Moncrief — It is reported that Reggie Wayne is playing with a torn triceps related to his elbow injury from earlier this season. Moncrief has impressed as a rookie and if Wayne were to miss time this year, Moncrief would step into his role in the Colts’ offense. There is also value moving into next year and beyond because of playing with stud quarterback Andrew Luck. Moncrief is a nice addition to the depth of a roster for now and the future.
Davante Adams — Packers wide receiver Randall Cobb hits free agency in 2015 and he is going to get paid a lot of money, perhaps more than the Packers are willing to pay, especially with the addition and play of Adams as a rookie. The Packers have one of the best passing offenses in the NFL and while Adams is clearly a No.3 in their offense, he has a lot of value. He’s one of those players with a nice combination of value this year to go with the possibility of exploding next year.
Nate Washington — Washington steps into a starting role with receivers Justin Hunter out for the year and Kendall Wright missing time with a broken bone in his hand. The Titans are going to be down in games and throwing which is a nice combination for gaining garbage time points for wide receivers. Washington has always performed when given an opportunity and he should be relatively productive for the next few weeks.
Harstad
Marquess Wilson – With Marshall on the wrong side of 30 and dealing with injuries, Chicago might decide it's time to see what they have in Wilson. I'm less excited about the Chicago offense in general, especially with Trestman likely on his way out, but opportunity is opportunity.
Cordarrelle Patterson – Patterson was extremely raw coming into the NFL. He had played just one year of football at the division 1 level, with only 40 career receptions. Last year's hot streak to end the year blinded many of that fact and unnaturally raised expectations beyond where they were supposed to be. Still, there's “still raw and needing some time to develop”, and there's “losing your job to an undrafted free agent and playing a total of four offensive snaps in the last two games”. The book is not yet written on Patterson's career, but the most recent chapter is pretty negative.
Tight End
Harstad
Jimmy Graham – In standard scoring, Graham is the #2 fantasy TE, but he's closer in fantasy points to Larry Donnell than Rob Gronkowski. In PPR, Graham doesn't even rank in the top 3. Since week 5, Gronkowski has 1.7 times as many catches and 2.4 times as many yards. Jimmy Graham is also not as young as he used to be, relatively speaking, and over half of the top-12 fantasy TEs this year are younger. Graham is still an amazing talent, and he's still my #2 dynasty TE, but right now he's a full tier behind Gronkowski, and I wouldn't spend a 1st round pick to acquire him in a startup anymore.
Pasquino
Travis Kelce – Kelce is being used more and more as a receiver by Andy Reid, and Alex Smith does not have a big, down-the-field type arm. Kelce has TE1 upside in his future, and I am a buyer of his services.
Hindery
Zach Ertz - Ertz was the beneficiary of a lot of offseason hype and it seemed justified when he started the season with back-to-back games of 75+ receiving yards and looked to be a go-to option in the Eagles’ passing game. Ertz has cooled off considerably as the season has gone on though. He has only 12 receptions over the past six games and has lost the majority of his snaps to teammate Brent Celek. Celek is a stronger blocker and Chip Kelly indicated recently that he is just a better fit in the starting lineup than Ertz right now due to Celek’s strong play. Ertz just turned 24 and TEs are notoriously slow to develop so it would be unwise to give up on Ertz’s long-term potential. However, his value has certainly taken a steep tumble over the past couple months and may provide a nice buy low opportunity for owners who still believe in his potential.
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