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Each week, Footballguys staff members will share the big movers in their respective Dynasty Rankings. Since the contributors will rotate, please check in weekly. The focus of this article will be on the “why” more than the movement itself. Dynasty Rankings are fluid and we hope that sharing the rationale will help you in your quest to create dynasties with all of your teams. The diversity of rankings will result in a variety of opinions weekly.
Quarterback
Hindery
Peyton Manning - Manning has been slowly creeping up my QB rankings and has made it all the way up to #3. First, Manning has simply been a force this season and he provides his owners with a weekly advantage that few others players at any position can match. At a position where most teams are getting around 20 PPG from their QB, Manning gives you 25+ and there is real value in that. Second, Manning has said that he will retire once he is no longer an asset to his team. There are zero signs of that day coming anytime soon. Assumptions that Manning was nearing the end may be proven false as he is playing at an absurdly high level. Lastly, a big part of Manning’s rise is due to the struggles of many of the younger QBs who zoomed by him in the rankings. Cam Newton’s OL is pathetic and he is struggling. Russell Wilson never made the leap as a passer that many predicted he would in year three. Colin Kaepernick seems stuck in neutral and may have reached a plateau in terms of performance. Amongst the young QBs who have entered the league in the last few years, only Andrew Luck has proven that he is going to provide his owners with a real week-to-week advantage over replacement-level QB production and thus the value of a true difference-maker like Manning increases in comparison.
Robert Griffin III III - My week 11 rankings update had Griffin at QB17 and based upon his play the past two weeks and the vibe coming from Washington, even that was too high. I tend to focus a bit more on analytics and statistics than others, but the eye test is still a big part of the puzzle. Griffin has been failing the eye test miserably the past two seasons. When a franchise has as much invested in a player as Washington does with Griffin and they are considering benching him for a retread like Colt McCoy, you know the end is truly near. It may be hard for many to believe, but I think Griffin III may be done in Washington and that he will end up getting traded for a mid-round pick to a franchise desperate for hope at the QB position. At this point, I would prefer owning any of the top 4 rookie QBs over Griffin by a good margin and would likely also (depending upon my roster) take most of the older, productive QBs (Romo, Brady, E. Manning, etc.) over Griffin at this point.
Bischoff
Robert Griffin III III — Griffin III is an enigma, the Redskins are an enigma and this situation is a mess. Griffin III has shown his talent on the past, but knee injuries and a coaching change (amongst other things) seem to have derailed his career at a very early point. There’s too much drama happening in and around the quarterback position at the current time, and its resolution is very much unclear. There is a clear path to see the team move away from him in the short-term to get his head clear and to allow him to get right physically. While it is too soon to really understand his situation in the long-term, it wouldn’t be advisable to roll into the playoffs or next year relying on this situation.
Zach Mettenberger — Mettenberger is already delivering on the promise of what he showed last year at LSU. He has a very live arm and is willing to get blasted while staying in the pocket to deliver the ball. One of the short-term positives is that the Titans will likely be trailing in games and that means a lot of throwing for Mettenberger. In the long-term, he has big upside and is a candidate to put up lots of yards and touchdowns in the Titans offense.
Harstad
Tom Savage – We already know Ryan Fitzpatrick is not the answer. There's a small chance Mallett is the answer, but we won't see him again this year. There's a much bigger chance that Houston will address their quarterback situation in the draft. Still, Tom Savage finds himself with a five-game window to try to force his way on the field and convince his coaches he deserves a longer look going forward.
Matthew Stafford – I've always been lower than consensus on Stafford. 2011 was magical, but since then he's been an inefficient, unproductive quarterback who has managed to produce some fantasy-relevant seasons on the back of historic volume totals. The volume totals are drying up, and even with the addition of the talented Golden Tate, Stafford's efficiency metrics aren't improving in the slightest to offset. He has 72 career starts and nearly 3,000 attempts- we're fast nearing the point where he just is what he is. What is he? He's a guy who can produce low-end QB1 finishes as long as he gets league-leading pass attempt totals. Pass.
Tefertiller
Nick Foles – Foles tumbles down our rankings, less because of his injury and more because the Eagles are not missing him too much. We tentatively expect Foles to be the 2015 opening day starter, but the better Mark Sanchez plays, the more doubt creeps in. In a corresponding move, Sanchez is now ranked up with other low-end NFL starters. We see him starting next season, whether in Philadelphia or elsewhere.
Running Back
Harstad
Jamaal Charles – As the running back crop keeps looking worse and worse, the prospect of investing in the aging Jamaal Charles and just running him into the ground keeps looking better and better. Since returning from his early injury, Charles has been scoring touchdowns at an even greater pace than last year, and he leads all backs in total scores over the past two seasons by a sizable amount. Throw in serious receiving chops and the highest yard-per-carry average in NFL history, and I'm willing to bet the inimitable Mr. Charles will age gracefully going forward.
Giovani Bernard / Jeremy Hill – There was some hope after his breakout rookie season that Giovani Bernard could earn the lion's share of the carries in Cincinnati, but Hill's strong play this year is leaving that looking like a long-shot. With his future carries drying up, Bernard is going to be highly reliant on his receiving chops to earn value in PPR leagues going forward.
Hindery
C.J. Anderson/Montee Ball - It is clear that the starting RB in Denver’s high powered offense is going to be a fantasy force. When Montee Ball locked down that starting job over the summer, his value soared accordingly. However, Ball has suffered another injury setback and has thus far proven incapable of establishing himself as the go-to guy in Denver. In his absence, C.J. Anderson has taken the ball and run with it (literally and figuratively). Anderson has played great the past three weeks and has made a strong case for his holding onto the job even when Ball and Ronnie Hillman both return from injury. This competition could take more turns in the weeks and years to come, but for now it appears that Anderson is the player to own in Denver and his value has shot up to account for this new reality.
Tefertiller
Giovani Bernard – The strong play of rookie Jeremy Hill has made us re-think the RB1 ranking of Bernard. At this point, it is difficult to project anything but a timeshare for the young ball carriers. Hill has moved up accordingly.
Ronnie Hillman – Hillman played very well with the starter's workload, but struggled to remain healthy. The Broncos running back situation will be impossible to predict going forward, however both Montee Ball and C.J. Anderson are viewed as primary ball carriers by the coaching staff ... and Hillman is not ... so we are adjusting the rankings.
Bischoff
Isaiah Crowell — Crowell was a very talented running back at the college level, but he had some off the field issues that led to him leaving Georgia and to his transfer to Alabama State. What was clear while watching him in college is that he was an explosive runner who liked to get downhill, and that’s a very positive trait for a back in the NFL. Crowell is a very talented running back and a player that should be in store for lots of goal-line work in a Browns offense that should do plenty of scoring with weapons coming back into the fold.
Wide Receiver
Bischoff
Kenny Stills — Stills is an important member of the Saints offense, and his role while already established got a shot in the arm via rookie wide receiver Brandin Cooks’ season-ending injury. Stills now becomes the main vertical threat in a very potent offense and he is likely available in leagues with shorter benches. The ability to score quickly makes Stills a very intriguing addition.
Tefertiller
Cordarrelle Patterson – Patterson has amazing upside and could develop into a superstar one day. The only issue is that many of us had him ranked as though he was already producing fantasy points. He is not. Further, the Minnesota coaching staff repeatedly states to the media how far Patterson needs to develop. Those comments every week or two are sobering for dynasty owners.
T.Y. Hilton – We were one of – if not THE – slowest to adjust Hilton up the rankings as the number one option in the Colts pass offense, one of the elite passing offenses in the league. Even with veteran Reggie Wayne back in the lineup, Hilton is producing big games. Hakeem Nicks is not a factor and is at the end of his career, at least from a fantasy standpoint. An investment in Hilton represents an investment in Andrew Luck.
Harstad
Randall Cobb – Cobb was always in a Schr¤ödinger's Cat situation of sorts. Either he was going to re-sign with Green Bay for the long term, in which case he would be extremely valuable as one of Aaron Rodgers' top targets, or else he was going to leave in free agency, in which case he would be less valuable catching passes for a much lesser quarterback, (see also: Decker, Eric). Rumblings out of Green Bay this past week suggest that re-signing is looking more and more like a possibility, and Cobb's value is rising as a result.
Michael Floyd – Memories of his 1,000 yard season last year are quickly being swallowed by the cold reality that his spot on the depth chart has been completely usurped by rookie John Brown.
Jarvis Landry – often overlooked among his more celebrated rookie peers, Landry has topped 10 targets in two of his last three games and has clearly passed Brian Hartline as Miami's #2 receiver.
Hindery
Josh Gordon - We discussed Gordon in-depth last week on the Thursday Night Dynasty Google Hangout and the consensus was that with a few good games, he would leap right back into the WR top 10. However, it may not even take that long. Gordon passed the “eye test” with flying colors and looked as dominant as ever. There are at most a handful of WRs who have more value down the stretch run of the 2014 season because when on the field, Gordon is elite. The question for dynasty owners will come down to a risk/reward analysis in terms of how much they trust Gordon’s ability to stay out of trouble.
Brandon Marshall - Marshall has finally started to show his age a little bit and is not quite the force he has been in previous seasons. In fact, the production is down across most of the Bears passing offense. While Marshall should still have a few good years left, it is possible he had his last elite season in 2013. Adding to Marshall’s slide down the WR rankings is the emergence of a number of talented young WRs. When players like Odell Beckham, Jr. are out-producing Marshall in the present and are nearly a decade his junior, it is almost impossible to justify ranking Marshall ahead of them.
Jarvis Landry - The forgotten man in this deservedly hyped rookie WR class, Landry is quietly putting together a fantastic rookie season. Landry’s play is finally starting to catch the eye of dynasty owners as his 4 game stretch with 4 TDs and 24 receptions gives a glimpse of the type of upside the 21-year-old rookie has. Landry isn’t a burner, but neither is Keenan Allen and there are a lot of similarities between the two players. Both were highly productive in college but fell a little bit in the draft due to running slow 40 times. Both play faster on the field though and Landry has a chance to become the go-to guy in the Miami passing offense in the coming years.
Odell Beckham Jr- This one is pretty obvious and anyone who has been paying attention has seen just how good the rookie Giant has been playing. His performance last night on the national stage however served as a bit of a coming out party for those who were not yet aware just how impressive the young man is. He had the catch of the year on a ball thrown well over his head that he contorted his body to catch with three fingers. Beckham has been performing like a WR1 since his first snap of the season and there is little reason to fear there will be much of a drop off any time soon. This is one of the brightest young stars in the league and should be valued as such.
Tight End
Bischoff
Jordan Cameron — Cameron missed the Week 12 game against Atlanta, but I would be adding him in every format where he is available because of the perceived power of the Browns’ offense and the slate of playoff games in which the Browns have an offensive edge. The Browns got wide receiver Josh Gordon back in Week 12 and he was fantastic, and this offense really gets a jolt when Cameron returns. I would expect TE1 type numbers from Cameron the rest of the way as soon as he gets back into the lineup.
Delanie Walker — With new rookie quarterback Zach Mettenberger delivering the ball now in the Titans’ offense, it bears watching the chemistry that forms between the quarterback and his receiving options. That chemistry was clearly on display Sunday as Walker went off, catching five passing and registering 155 yards. Mettenberger has started four games and has targeted Walker 28 times over that four game span.
Tefertiller
Coby Fleener – Fleener has looked strong while replacing the injured Dwayne Allen. The Colts have a great pair of tight ends to use in multiple ways going forward. We expect more two-tight end sets, especially with the injury to Ahmad Bradshaw.
Owen Daniels – While Daniels is far past his prime, he is still a viable fantasy potion many weeks. With all of the injuries to the tight end position Daniels has value. He should be the Ravens starter as long as Gary Kubiak remains the offensive coordinator.
Hindery
Delanie Walker - Outside of Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham, is there any TE that you would prefer to run out there in your starting lineup in the 2014 fantasy playoffs over Walker? There’s a case for Greg Olsen perhaps, but personally I would take Walker as the TE3 the rest of the way. While Walker is a bit older, he seems like he is the type of player who could produce TE1 numbers until his mid-30s. From waiver-wire guy, to surprise contributor down the stretch in 2013, to high end TE1 in 2014, Walker has been slowly and steadily rising in value for the better part of two seasons.
Jordan Reed - At some point Reed owners are going to want to throw in the towel and just admit that he may never put together a long stretch of good health. Reed seems to have suffered through almost every injury there is. Then just when you think he is finally healthy and ready to carry the load for your TE position, he quickly goes down with another ailment. Plus, the Washington offense just looks like a disaster lately with Griffin III struggling and players bickering, so it is not like Reed is a definite difference-maker even when he is able to play through a full game. The risk/reward equation with Reed just doesn’t add up to a whole lot of value at this point and it is hard to consider him a dynasty TE1 anymore.
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