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Each week, Footballguys staff members will share the big movers in their respective Dynasty Rankings. Since the contributors will rotate, please check in weekly. The focus of this article will be on the “why” more than the movement itself. Dynasty Rankings are fluid and we hope that sharing the rationale will help you in your quest to create dynasties with all of your teams. The diversity of rankings will result in a variety of opinions weekly.
Quarterback
Bischoff
Teddy Bridgewater — Teddy Bridgewater has been a good rookie quarterback for the Minnesota Vikings, but his schedule (weather included) to finish the season is brutal. He will either play outside in the cold in five of their seven remaining games, and the other two opponents are Detroit and Miami. I wouldn’t expect much to finish the season for Bridgewater and the Vikings passing game.
Jay Cutler — Where does one start with Cutler and his last few performances? There shouldn’t be much fear with his status with the Bears as starting quarterback this year, but this team may have to make a move at the position if Cutler continues to play, and look, like he has the past few weeks. This might be reactionary thinking because he was fantastic earlier this season, but he looks to be regressing in the Bears’ offense and is 8-14 as a starting quarterback with Marc Trestman as head coach.
Hindery
Mark Sanchez/Nick Foles - The Eagles never fully backed Foles as their long-term franchise QB, delaying extension talks and remaining somewhat guarded in terms of discussing the future. It raised some eyebrows when they then went out and made Mark Sanchez one of the highest paid backup QBs in the league. With Foles struggling, there was already some speculation about the Eagles making a change at the QB position even before Foles went down. With the injury, Sanchez has a real opportunity to take the job and make it is his own. While draft position does not always tell the full story, Sanchez was a top 5 overall pick and Foles was a mid-rounder, so there is an argument that Sanchez is at least as talented as Foles. Clearly dynasty owners have to approach Sanchez with caution. He could be back on the bench to start next season and is far from a sure thing. However, there is some clear upside with Sanchez and he has to be right back on the dynasty radar because whoever is leading the Eagles offense is going to have QB1 value. For Foles owners, it would be unwise to panic but if you can find anyone willing to give you anything close to top 12 Dynasty QB value for Foles, it is worth pulling the trigger. There will not be any answers immediately available as to whom the Eagles long-term starter is (perhaps someone not yet on the roster?), however it is clear that the risk/reward factors have greatly shifted towards Sanchez and away from Foles.
Blake Bortles - I have been a big believer in Bortles and certainly think he still has a lot of upside, but there are also a lot of reasons for real concern. Physically, it is all there: A big arm, great size and really underrated athleticism. He seems to have a little bit of an “it” factor as a leader. So why is his stock down? He keeps making the same mistakes in reading coverage over and over and over again. This is the point in the season where you would hopefully expect to see Bortles settle down and start making better decisions, but it seems as though he is instead regressing. At some point, Bortles has to show that he can take care of the football and that he is able to understand coverages and make good decisions or his future prospects become extremely murky. There is enough of a Geno Smith-esque turnover issue to start downgrading Bortles a few notches in the QB dynasty rankings.
Harstad
Nick Foles - The broken clavicle- and the missed time that it necessitates- is a concern for Foles. The greater concern, however, is how he failed to take advantage of a golden opportunity to seize the starting job for the long term before he got hurt. Chip Kelly once jokingly replied last season that Nick Foles would be his starting quarterback for the next 1,000 years. I'm willing to bet that Foles won't be his starting quarterback for the next 1,000 days.
Tom Brady - Written off by many, Tom Brady offers an important reminder of just how dependent quarterbacks are on their supporting cast for production. Last year, Tom Brady wasn't even backup-caliber while Gronkowski recovered from his injury, but Brady was a top-5 fantasy quarterback after Gronkowski returned. This year, Gronkowski's return to health (and the attendant snaps) has coincided with Tom Brady morphing back into a top-5 quarterback. As long as Rob Gronkowski is healthy, Tom Brady is a major advantage in fantasy football, and that will likely remain true for several more years going forward.
Running Back
Harstad
Marshawn Lynch - Given the contract disputes this offseason, (as well as the relative dearth of guaranteed money going forward), I assumed that this would be Lynch's last year in Seattle. When Percy Harvin was traded, Lynch's reported reaction solidified that opinion. Instead, Lynch is running so well that I wonder where Seattle would be without him, and if they can afford to let him go. Even if not, Lynch has plenty left in the tank, and unless he opts to retire this coming offseason, his odds of being a high-end fantasy asset in the future are going up with each passing week.
Mark Ingram - I've been an Ingram supporter for a while now, but my optimism about him has gone from “he's in a favorable offense and will likely outproduce expectations” to “there aren't five backs in the entire league who are playing better than he is”. New Orleans' cap situation for 2015 is a mess, so I doubt they'll be able to retain his services, but Ingram is going to be getting major money somewhere to be a workhorse next year.
Denard Robinson - Chad Parsons likes to call players who are unique “unicorns”. I'm a big fan of “unicorns” in dynasty leagues, because people tend to believe something's not possible until they've seen it done. Denard Robinson is the latest example of a talented young unicorn who was available for free in most leagues, and who is already providing returns on the investment. An amazing athlete and former college quarterback, Robinson has bulked up, mastered the art of receiving a handoff, and almost single-handedly turned around the fortunes of a Jacksonville running game that had spent the past season and a half desperately stuck in neutral.
Hindery
LeSean McCoy - We had a great discussion on a recent Thursday Night Dynasty Google Hangout (hosted by Jeff Tefertiller) about how one has to view the RB position in dynasty through a completely different lens than all of the other positions. RB production is so fleeting and dependent upon so many factors beyond the RB’s control (Offensive Line, Scheme, the talent of the backup RBs, game scripts, etc.) that planning too much for the long-term at the position becomes nearly impossible. LeSean McCoy is a great example of that theorem. He is as talented a runner as any in the league and is still young enough that these should be his prime years. Planning ahead towards 2014 with McCoy penciled in as your stud #1 RB would have seemed like a no brainer. Yet here we are over halfway through the season and McCoy has yet to really get going. The prime culprit is the health of his OL, but at some point the “why” doesn’t matter and we just need production. A RB that is not producing in the current season is hard to value because there are so many factors that projecting beyond this year is extremely difficult. Especially with the 2015 rookie RB looking to be nearly as loaded as the 2014 WR class. Add it all up and it is time to start downgrading McCoy due the lack of 2014 production.
Denard Robinson - There is certainly a perception amongst many that Robinson is a decent player but not a guy who really has a chance to hold onto the starting job in Jacksonville past this season. That may end up being the case, but Robinson’s play over the last few weeks has made a strong case for his future role. Jacksonville has a lot of holes to fill and only so many early round draft choices available to fill them. With Robinson’s play over the past month, the odds go up that they will look to shore up other problem areas in the draft instead of addressing RB with an early pick. That bodes well for Robinson’s future. We have seen some similarly built players (Andre Ellington) emerge as legitimate RB1s in recent years, so it is a mistake to write off Robinson’s chances. With some upgrades along the OL, at TE and improved play from the rookie QB and WRs, Jacksonville could have an exciting offense in 2015 and beyond and Robinson could be poised to take advantage.
Wide Receiver
Hindery
Emmanuel Sanders - I have been as big an Emmanuel Sanders supporter as anyone and ended up owning him in nearly every staff mock draft completed this summer. Even I underestimated his true dynasty value though as Sanders just keeps producing big numbers every week with a nearly unmatched consistency. He is a fantasy WR1 in 2014. He is also a young player who is locked into a fantastic situation for at least the next two years. So why is he still so seemingly undervalued? I think it comes down to a negative perception about his talent that for many indicates he is due to fall off in production any given week. That perception should be changing slowly but surely. Sanders is a player who has seen his dynasty value shoot up over the first half of the 2014 season, but I believe it has still not reached the heights that it should and it will likely continue to creep up through the end of the season and throughout the next offseason.
Alshon Jeffery - Jeffery is still a highly valued fantasy asset and a player anyone should be happy to own. However, I am not sure that he is still a 1st round draft pick in startup drafts like he was all offseason. The Bears are a mess right now. They cannot block anyone and Cutler is self-destructing. There is talk that Marc Trestman’s job could be in jeopardy if things do not turn around soon. None of this bodes well for Jeffery. I view Jeffery as a very good talent but not a true physical freak in the same class as Julio Jones or Calvin Johnson who can rise above his situation no matter what else is going on. We are seeing that clearly as his numbers are way down across the board. Another thing slightly dragging Jeffery’s value down is the depth and talent of this rookie WR class. With Mike Evans, Sammy Watkins, Kelvin Benjamin, Brandin Cooks, Martavis Bryant and other emerging in a big way, there is a bit of a “shiny new toy” factor going on and Jeffery’s value is starting to fall just a bit as some of the hot new rookies inch closer to him and perhaps even past him in the coming weeks.
Bischoff
Mike Evans — Mike Evans is quietly putting together a very good season, one that should have him in the rookie of the year discussion. Through nine games he has 39 catches, 585 yards and five touchdowns. He is on pace for 69 catches, 1040 yards and 9 touchdowns and he’s doing it in a bad offensive situation right now. Evans has been all he was advertised to be and more, and he should be one of the better wide receivers in the game for a long time.
John Brown — John Brown has been on this list a few times, but it is important to include him again. With quarterback Carson Palmer out with a torn ACL, the job falls to Drew Stanton who has not been leery of targeting the speedy wide-out. Brown is a very good route runner and he has great hands, and the Cardinals will rely on the threat of his vertical speed to open up their offense.
Jarvis Landry — Landry has been very good for the Dolphins in his rookie season, but I think there’s more in store for him with left tackle Branden Albert lost for the year. The Dolphins are going to have to get quarterback Ryan Tannehill throwing the ball quicker and that means shorter routes where Landry will excel.
Harstad
All Rookie WRs - I mean absolutely no hyperbole whatsoever when I say that this is the greatest and deepest crop of rookie receivers the league has ever seen. Sammy Watkins looks like the best rookie receiver since Anquan Boldin. Odell Beckham Jr, Mike Evans, Kelvin Benjamin, and Brandin Cooks are all first rounders who have quickly become the best receivers on their teams. Second-rounders Jordan Matthews, Davante Adams, and Jarvis Landry have all demonstrated they have a bright future in the league. So have third-rounders John Brown and Donte Moncrief and fourth-rounder Martavis Bryant. So far, the only disappointments in the rookie class- Cody Latimer, Marqise Lee, Paul Richardson Jr, Josh Huff- are players who largely haven't been able to get on the field due to injury or simply joining a team with a quality WR depth chart already in place. But even they show plenty of reason for optimism going forward.
Tight End
Harstad
Jason Witten - At 32 years old and on pace for his lowest totals in both receptions and receiving yards since his rookie year back in 2003, there's plenty of reason to wonder if the end has finally arrived for Jason Witten as a quality fantasy asset, even in PPR leagues.
Bischoff
Kyle Rudolph — The Vikings hope to get Rudolph back from groin surgery this week, and he looks to be on schedule after practicing Monday. Rudolph will be heavily relied on as a safety valve going forward with rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater facing a very difficult schedule over the remainder of the 2014 season. Rudolph is a very promising tight end and a young player and should be stashed for next year, with the heavy receptions upside to finish this season.
Mychal Rivera — Over the past three weeks, Rivera has been targeted 28 times, catching 21 passes for 185 yards and registering three touchdowns. Clearly he has emerged as a primary weapon with new head coach Tony Sparano and rookie quarterback Derek Carr. He’s an intriguing stash with some upside now and for next year.
The Footballguys.com staffers have a dynasty-centric Google Hangout each Thursday. Here is a link to watch.