Details:
- Entry Deadline (First Game Kickoff): 10-15-15, 7:00 PM EST
- Number of games in slate: 7 games
Auburn at Kentucky
Kickoff: 10-15-15, 7:00 PM EST
Spread: Auburn -2
O/U: 51.5
Auburn
Expected Team Total Points: 26.75
QB Jeremy Johnson – 4,800
Analysis: While the team won’t officially announce it, all signs seem to be pointing to Jeremy Johnson regaining the starting quarterback role for Auburn this week. Coach Gus Malzahn has publicly said that either Johnson or Sean White could start against Kentucky and that it could be a game time decision, but those comments wouldn’t seem to have any purpose if Johnson was not going to be the guy. Yes, Jeremy Johnson has looked horrible this year, but the skillset and system are undeniable, and if given a second chance, we’d expect him to look closer to the guy who so competently filled in for Nick Marshall, than the one who fell flat in 2015.
Recommendation: Hopefully there is confirmation regarding Johnson starting prior to kickoff, because plugging him into your lineup will offer you the flexibility you need to fit in a high priced player at your other quarterback spot like Ward Jr or Doughty, without totally punting one quarterback spot. Though he hasn’t shown it so far this year, we’ve seen enough from Johnson in the past two years to think that he can still turn his season, and career around – and it can start Thursday night.
RB Peyton Barber – 7,200
Analysis: Barber is coming off of a 147 yard, five touchdown game against San Jose State. Even factoring in a seven carry effort against LSU, he’s still averaging 23 carries per game over his last four games. Volume will definitely be there in a game that should be closely contested. Two weeks ago, Kentucky surrendered 180 rushing yards to lowly Eastern Kentucky and on the year the Wildcats are allowing 170.6 rush yards per game.
Recommendation: Barber should see plenty of carries this week which gives him a nice floor and making him a good option for cash games.
WR Ricardo Louis – 4,400 WR Melvin Ray 3,300
Analysis: The Auburn passing game hasn’t been very successful this season, as both Jeremy Johnson and Sean White have largely struggled at quarterback. With Duke Williams being kicked off the team, and Jeremy Johnson likely re-emerging at quarterback however, there’s hope that Louis and Ray could step up this week. Melvin Ray will likely fill the starting role vacated by Williams. He has two touchdowns on the year, and both were thrown by Johnson (prior to his benching). Ricardo Louis is the de facto number one receiver now for Auburn, though he was already effectively operating in that role prior to Williams’s dismissal. Louis leads the team and catches and receiving yards, and should see the most targets of any Auburn receiver this week.
Recommendation: Ray is a high risk punt option. He only has nine catches on the year, but he offers the flexibility you’ll need if you want to fit in some of the higher priced players. Louis has a higher floor than Ray, as he’s likely to see more targets, but at 4,400 he’s still far from a sure thing to hit value. Both of these guys are best viewed as salary saving flyers rather than cash game building blocks.
Kentucky
Expected Team Total Points: 24.75
RB Stanley Boom Williams – 5,200
Analysis: Williams began the season with back to back 100 yard rushing games, but has come back to Earth since, only totaling 101 yards on the ground in the team’s last three games – though he did miss Kentucky’s most recent game due to a personal issue. Without him against Eastern Kentucky, the Wildcats struggled to establish any sort of running game, only amassing 55 rushing yards as a team. Williams is once again listed atop the Kentucky depth chart leading up to Thursday’s game and Coach Mark Stoops has said that Williams is “in good standing” and “good to go.” Auburn’s run defense is given up 209.6 yards per game this season, and has been notably gashed by FCS opponent Jacksonville State for 161 yards on the ground, and by San Jose State for 182 rush yards.
Recommendation: Williams is by far the best option in this backfield, but he’ll have to share carries with JoJo Kemp and Mikel Horton, as Kentucky has used a committee approach the entire year. Williams has yet to see 20 carries in a game, topping out at 18 this season, and he projects best as a tournament option, who should not be trusted in cash games, even in this soft matchup.
Western Kentucky at North Texas
Kickoff: 10-15-15, 7:30 PM EST
Spread: Western Kentucky -32.5
O/U: 68.5
Western Kentucky
Expected Team Total Points: 50.5
QB Brandon Doughty – 9,700
Analysis: Since struggling in week one against Vanderbilt, Doughty has thrown for at least 350 yards in each of his team’s five games and has thrown for at least three touchdowns in each of the last four. He now faces North Texas, who just fired their coach following a 66-7 drubbing to Portland State. North Texas is allowing 290 yards per game through the air.
Recommendation: Doughty will undoubtedly find success against North Texas. He’s not likely to have a 40 or 50 point game because of the blowout factor, but he will undoubtedly have a solid game. Doughty is only priced 300 less than Greg Ward Jr and we prefer Ward if confronted with the choice.
RB Anthony Wales - 4,800
Analysis: Wales returned two weeks ago from a knee injury that kept him out of WKU’s first four games. Against Rice he only saw three carries, but this past week against Middle Tennessee State, Wales out touched D’Andre Ferby, who started the game 20-8. Ferby has been ruled out due to injury for this week’s game, which should all but assure Wales at least 15 touches.
Recommendation: At his price of 4,800, Wales is an easy cash game play.
WR Jared Dangerfield – 6,600 WR Taywan Taylor 7,100
Analysis: Since a week one dud against Vanderbilt, Taywan Taylor has scored in every game, while catching at least five passes and exceeding 80 yards in every one of those contests. Jared Dangerfield has scored in four straight games and it seems clear that he’s over the hamstring injury that plagued him at the start of the season.
Recommendation: Dangerfield has only averaged 10.8 yards per catch in 2015, while Taylor is averaging over 18 yards per reception. Dangerfield and Taylor may not see the field in the second half, making Taylor’s explosiveness preferable to Dangerfield’s PPR friendly game.
WR Tyler Higbee – 5,000
Analysis: Higbee has cooled down a bit since his hot start, only catches eight passes in the last three games. He has scored four times in that span however, and remains an elite option at the tight end position.
Recommendation: In what is certain to be a blowout, Higbee will have to score at least once to hit value. With his catch totals trending downward in recent weeks, and his price at an all-time high, we don’t consider him a preferred option in this slate.
North Texas
Expected Team Total Points: 18
WR Carlos Harris – 5,200
Analysis: Despite the carnage that has been North Texas’s season, Carlos Harris has managed to have a solid season. He’s caught 36 of the 82 passes that North Texas has completed this season and the passing game clearly revolves around him. North Texas is expected to switch starting quarterbacks, from Andrew McNulty to Damarcus Smith. Smith is more of a runner than McNulty was, but he will undoubtedly be asked to throw often in this contest as WKU will be piling up the points. During the one drive that Smith led last week, he targeted Harris three times, completing two passes, one of which resulted in North Texas’s only score of the day.
Recommendation: Harris is a solid option this week as he sees a ton of targets and North Texas will need to throw often as they, futilely, attempt to keep pace with WKU.
UCLA at Stanford
Kickoff: 10-9-15, 8:00 PM EST
Spread: Stanford -7
O/U: 54.5
UCLA
Expected Team Total Points: 23.75
QB Josh Rosen – 6,600
Analysis: Rosen has been up and down so far as a true freshman. He looked fantastic against Virginia and Arizona, but struggled against BYU and Arizona State. He now faces a Stanford team that has won four games in a row in impressive fashion, and has to do so on the road on a Thursday night. Stanford has yet to allow a 300 yard passing game so far this year, though to be fair they haven’t faced a murderer’s row of quarterbacks.
Recommendation: Rosen’s been too inconsistent so far this season to trust him in cash games. This will likely be a very difficult test for him, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him fare poorly. That being said, if UCLA is going to find success against this defense, it will likely be through the air, as Stanford has been very effective at shutting down opponents’ running game.
RB Paul Perkins – 7,000
Analysis: Stanford has been tough on running backs so far this year, only once allowing a 100 yard rusher (in week one against Northwestern.) The 129.6 rush yards per game that the Cardinal are allowing is the 33rd best in the FBS. In their last two games, Stanford has only Oregon State and Arizona running backs to rush for a combined total of 115 yards. Perkins is averaging 115 yards rushing per game in 2015, and has scored seven touchdowns through UCLA’s first five games.
Recommendation: DraftKings is begging you to take Perkins at his discounted rate of 7,000, but it’s still unlikely that he justifies that price. He’s likely to have a low rate of ownership and makes sense as a contrarian GPP play, but that’s about the only instance that we’d consider him for a lineup this week.
WR Jordan Payton – 5,000 WR Thomas Duarte – 4,800
Analysis: Stanford has been burned by taller receivers this year, with Jordan Villamin and Juju Smith both putting up huge games against them. Payton stands at 6’1” and Duarte is 6’3”. Payton operates as UCLA’s top receiver, leading the team in catches so far in 2015, after doing the same last season. Duarte’s value is largely tied to his ability to score, but he is targeted heavily in the red zone and leads the Bruins with four receiving touchdowns this season. He has caught ten balls in UCLA’s last two games, compared to eight total catches in their first three contests.
Recommendation: Payton is reasonably priced and sees the most targets of any UCLA receiver and is a solid cash game option. Duarte is the team’s primary pass catching option in the red zone and his value is closely tied to whether or not he scores. We consider him more of a tournament play.
Stanford
Expected Team Total Points: 30.75
RB Christian McCaffrey – 7,400
Analysis: McCaffrey has been an absolute monster in recent weeks, averaging 24 carries and 159 yards rushing since Pac 12 play began. He also receives solid usage in the passing game, catching an average of three passes per game. The matchup with UCLA is a tasty one. Demario Richard, Nick Wilson, and Adam Hine have each had big games against UCLA, averaging 142 yards of offense in their matchups with the Bruins.
Recommendation: McCaffrey is a great cash game option this week. His upside is capped a bit by Stanford’s propensity for using Remound Wright in the red zone, but no other running back can match McCaffrey’s floor. Expect at least 20 carries and 100 yards on Thursday.
Cincinnati at BYU
Kickoff: 10-16-15, 8:00 PM EST
Spread: BYU -6.5
O/U: 65.5
Cincinnati
Expected Team Total Points: 29.5
QB Hayden Moore – 6,900 QB Gunner Kiel – 7,300
Analysis: Coach Tommy Tuberville has stated that he won’t name a starting quarterback until shortly before kickoff on Friday. Hayden Moore led the Bearcats to a big win against Miami in the team’s last game, and played very well in a close loss to Memphis. Gunner Kiel has been the Cincinnati starter when healthy the past two years, but has been knocked out of numerous games with various injuries. Tuberville said that he’s ‘looking for a quarterback that doesn't turn the ball over and makes good decisions.’ Though both quarterbacks have thrown five interceptions this season, we feel that Moore will likely to get the nod, after throwing for 836 yards with a 6:3 touchdown to interception ratio the past two weeks, and leading the Bearcats to one of the biggest wins in school history.
Recommendation: Because of the uncertainty surrounding this situation, we don’t recommend either guy for cash games. The possibility exists of an in-game rotation, or that Tuberville won’t actually announce anything prior to kickoff. Whoever starts though, will be a high upside GPP option against a BYU secondary that has given up big games to opposing quarterbacks this year.
WR Shaq Washington – 5,900
Analysis: Washington has had back to back big games, going over 100 yards receiving in consecutive outings. He’s definitely Cincinnati’s one number receiver, but is mostly used in a possession role. Whereas the Bearcat receiving corps had been decimated by injuries in recent weeks, they should be getting Chris Moore and Johnny Holton back in action against BYU, potentially allowing the team to rely less on Washington to produce.
Recommendation: Washington is a good bet to lead Cincinnati in targets and approach 100 yards for a third straight week. He doesn’t have the upside of other receivers in this slate, and doesn’t make for an ideal tournament option, but warrants cash game consideration because of his high floor.
BYU
Expected Team Total Points: 36
QB Tanner Mangum – 7,000
Analysis: Mangum has had back to back big games, exceeding 330 passing yards against both UConn and East Carolina. He now faces Cincinnati’s defense which has allowed 300 yard passing efforts to Paxton Lynch and PJ Walker. Mangum will likely have to throw early and often to keep pace with a potent Cincinnati offense that should have little trouble scoring points against a weak BYU defense. The main concern with Mangum in this game is his health. He missed time during last week’s game with a hamstring injury and Coach Bronco Mendenhall stated that both Mangum and back-up Beau Hoge were receiving reps with the first team in practice earlier this week. Fortunately, Mangum is now being considered probable heading into Friday and he should be counted on to get the start.
Recommendation: Mangum could blow up for a huge game against a weak Cincinnati pass defense, but his hamstring injury has us concerned enough to avoid playing him in cash games. He is a great tournament option though, as this game has shootout written all over it.
RB Algernon Brown – 6,500
Analysis: Brown had a breakout game last week against East Carolina, rushing for 134 yards on 24 carries, scoring four total touchdowns – including one through the air. With Adam Hine still out with injury, Brown should once again dominate touches in the BYU backfield. BYU will likely look to establish a balanced game plan, especially with starting quarterback Tanner Mangum nursing a hamstring injury that has him listed as ‘probable’ to play.
Recommendation: Volume should not be an issue for Brown this week, as the only other option behind him is freshman Francis Bernard. He should push for 20 touches and at 6’1” 235 pounds will likely be used as a battering ram near the goal line. We expect Brown to build on his big effort from last week with another strong game.
WR Mitch Mathews – 5,500
Analysis: Mathews is the most consistent receiver in the BYU offense and is targeted often by Tanner Mangum down near the goal line. He leads BYU in catches and touchdowns, and should play a big role in the game with the highest over/under in this slate.
Recommendation: Though Mathews is BYU’s number one receiver, the team has numerous receivers that can make plays and Tanner Mangum generally spreads the ball around fairly equitably. We think Mathews should have a decent game and has a good chance of hitting value.
WR Terenn Houk – 3,600
Analysis: Houk effectively operates as a wide receiver in the BYU offense. He regularly splits out wide and is very sparingly used as a blocker. He’s hauled in ten passes in the last two games and scored his first touchdown of the season last week against East Carolina.
Recommendation: If you are looking for a cheaper receiving option that sees a good amount of targets, consider Houk. He’s very reasonably priced at 3,600 and even though BYU really spreads the ball around, he won’t need to see a ton of targets to hit value.
Houston at Tulane
Kickoff: 10-16-15, 9:00 PM EST
Spread: Houston -19
O/U: 60.5
Houston
Expected Team Total Points: 39.75
QB Greg Ward Jr – 10,000
Analysis: Greg Ward Jr is coming off of a huge game against SMU in which he rushed for four touchdowns and accumulated 325 total yards. He has yet to rush for less than 80 yards in any game this season and has accounted for at least three scores in every contest. He now faces a Tulane defense that is 94th in total defense. Ward Jr should continue his season of exceptional efforts with another big game.
Recommendation: Ward Jr is the most expensive player in this slate, but is well worth the cost. He has the highest floor and highest ceiling of any quarterback, and even if this game turns into a blowout relatively quickly, Ward Jr should still have a big game. You will likely need to pair him with a riskier, low priced quarterback in order to build a solid lineup, but the emergence of Jeremy Johnson offers just that opportunity.
RB Kenneth Farrow – 6.900
Analysis: Kenneth Farrow has scored five touchdowns in his team’s last two games and is coming off of a three score performance last week against SMU. He only received 11 carries in that game however, and Houston was sure to mix in Ryan Jackson and Javin Webb for entire series while the game was still close. When the team got down near the goal line however, Farrow was consistently relied upon, and delivered with touchdown runs of 2, 6, and 8 yards.
Recommendation: Farrow’s value is largely tied to whether or not he reaches the end zone. While Houston’s offense is dynamic and short create amply scoring opportunities this week, Greg Ward Jr is undoubtedly Houston’s most effective and dynamic runner. We feel that Farrow is better suited for tournaments than cash games at this price point, as he could just as easily both blow up as he could turn in a poor performance. Additionally, with high volume options such as Peyton Barber and Christian McCaffrey available in this slate, we feel much more comfortable trusting one of them over Farrow.
WR Demarcus Ayers – 6,000
Analysis: Ayers is Greg Ward Jr’s clear top target in the passing game and has caught at least seven passes in four of Houston’s first five games. The fact that he only has three touchdowns on the season is largely due to the effectiveness of Houston’s running game in the red zone. Last week against SMU, Houston scored seven touchdowns from within the twenty yard line, all coming on run plays.
Recommendation: Ayers is a safe bet to have a decent game. He should rack up enough targets to at least come close to hitting value, and could easily have a huge game if he’s able to score once or twice. We like Ayers to be one of the more productive receivers in this slate.
Tulane
Expected Team Total Points: 20.75
Tulane will have a hard time establishing much offense on Friday. Their starting quarterback Tanner Lee has been ruled out with a concussion and the team has used a committee at the running back position this season. Teddy Veal is likely to see a lot of coverage from star Houston cornerback William Jackson, so even at 4,100 he’s not overly tempting. You can look elsewhere to fill out your roster.
Boise State at Utah State
Kickoff: 10-16-15, 9:00 PM EST
Spread: Boise State -9.5
O/U: 46.5
Boise State
Expected Team Total Points: 28
QB Brett Rypien – 7,300
Analysis: True freshman Brett Rypien has been extremely impressive since taking over as starter for the injured Ryan Finley. He’s thrown for an average of 310 yards per game in that span and has led Boise to three consecutive blowout wins. This week will be his toughest challenge as of yet, as he faces Utah State, on the road. Utah State is only allowing 195 passing yards per game, which ranks 44th in the FBS.
Recommendation: Star running back Jeremy McNichols is unlikely to play for Boise State, making it more likely that the game plan revolves around Rypien’s right arm. Though Utah State shut down the Utah and Fresno State passing games, Washington’s Jake Browning put forth a career best effort, passing for 368 yards against the Aggies. Boise State’s offense is far more functional than Washington’s and it wouldn’t be surprising if Rypien had a big game.
WR Thomas Sperbeck – 5,900
Analysis: Thomas Sperbeck has enjoyed three straight great games since Brett Rypien took over as starting quarterback, totaling 386 yards and five touchdowns in that span. Utah State’s pass defense has been suspect at times this season, and with Jeremy McNichols unlikely to suit up due to a concussion suffered last week, Boise State should game plan largely around the passing game.
Recommendation: Sperbeck’s price is a reasonable for a receiver who has been on an absolute tear, and we think he’ll have a great game in which Boise State will likely have to throw in order to effectively move the ball.
Utah State
Expected Team Total Points: 18.5
WR Hunter Sharp – 5,400
Analysis: Sharp has performed well since returning from his two week suspension to begin the year, catching 16 passes for 236 yards in the past three games. He’s the clear top option in the passing game for the Aggies, but challenge this week is a difficult one. Boise State has regularly shut down their opponent’s top receiving option, including holding Rashard Higgins to three catches and 42 yards this past week.
Recommendation: Sharp is a great player but this matchup is likely to prove too tough. We don’t recommend him for cash games despite his reasonable price.
UNLV at Fresno State
Kickoff: 10-16-15, 10:30 PM EST
Spread: UNLV -7
O/U: 55
UNLV
Expected Team Total Points: 31
RB Keith Whitely – 4,100
Analysis: Whitely is the starting running back on a team that averages 217.8 rush yards per game and is going up against one of the worst run defenses in the country. The problem is that he splits time with numerous others, with three other running backs having received over 20 carries so far this season. It’s a full blown committee for UNLV and it’s difficult to count on any one of their running backs receiving a sizable amount of carries. Last week when UNLV went up against San Jose State’s porous run defense, Whitely only saw eight carries and turned them into a measly 32 yards.
Recommendation: The matchup is great for UNLV as a team, but we’re not recommending using Whitely in cash games, as the allocation of carries is too volatile. Priced at 4,100, Whitely is a solid tournament option that will likely have a good game if he receives 15 touches.
WR Devonte Boyd – 5,000
Analysis: We’d prefer that Blake Decker be starting at quarterback for UNLV, but Coach Tony Sanchez has already announced that even though Decker is recovered from a separated shoulder, Kurt Palandech will continue to start. Though Palandech has struggled, Devonte Boyd did manage three catches for 61 yards and a touchdown last week against a San Jose State team that is allowing the 3rd fewest yards per game through the air. Fresno State offers a much easier challenge this week, allowing 233.5 yards through the air - 81st in the FBS. That number would probably be even higher if Fresno were not also allowing 211 yards per game via the ground.
Recommendation: Boyd is priced as if he’s performing at the level he was for much of 2014. However, with instability at the quarterback position and the team’s run-heavy approach, Boyd hasn’t been able to build on his great freshman campaign, and has not yet caught more than five passes in a game this season. We still think he is talented enough to explode for a big game at any point, especially in a soft matchup like this one, but at 5,000, he’s too pricy to consider a cash game option.
Fresno State
Expected Team Total Points: 24
RB Marteze Waller – 4,700
Analysis: Waller is Fresno State’s clear workhorse, averaging 20 carries per game so far this year. Unfortunately, he’s only churned out an average of 3.8 yards per carry, largely because of Fresno State’s complete inability to establish a solid passing game. UNLV’s run defense has been suspect at times, but they just held one the nation’s most prolific running backs, Tyler Ervin, to just 73 yards rushing this past weekend.
Recommendation: Waller has struggled this season and is unlikely to have a big day against UNLV. He’s priced nicely for someone who should get close to 20 carries, but we aren’t expecting great production. There are better ways to fill your FLEX position in this slate and we don’t recommend him for cash games.
