Details:
- Entry Deadline (First Game Kickoff): 10-8-15, 8:00 PM EST
- Number of games in slate: 4 games
SMU at Houston
Kickoff: 10-8-15, 8:00 PM EST
Spread: Houston -25.5
O/U: 74.5
SMU
Expected Team Total Points: 24.5
QB Matt Davis – 8,200
Analysis: Davis has performed fairly well as a passer so far this season, averaging 236 yards per game through the air. He only has one 300 yard passing game, and has largely struggled the last two weeks against James Madison and East Carolina, throwing for a total of 511 yards, while completing 55 percent of his passes. Houston’s defense has been weak against the pass so far this year, allowing 316 yards per game through the air. Where Davis really derives fantasy value, however, is through the use of his legs, as he’s already rushed for 380 yards and six touchdowns this season. The only time that Houston faced a mobile quarterback this year, they held Louisville’s Lamar Jackson to only 16 yards on 12 carries.
Recommendation: Davis is an ideal tournament play in this slate. He could easily blow up for a big game, but if Houston manages to contain him as a runner, he’s unlikely to hit value.
WR Courtland Sutton – 4,800
Analysis: Sutton is Matt Davis’s favorite receiver. He’s averaging 21.4 yards per catch this season and is 19th in the nation in receiving yards, with 450. Sutton had his worst game of the year last week against ECU, only catching four passes for 51 yards. When asked about Sutton drawing double coverage, SMU Offensive Coordinator Joe Craddock stated that ‘we’re moving him around and working to get other people the ball.’
Recommendation: Sutton is very reasonably priced at 4,800. He has huge upside this week in a game in which SMU will have to throw throughout to try to keep pace with Houston.
Houston
Expected Team Total Points: 50
QB Greg Ward Jr. – 10,000
Analysis: Greg Ward Jr. is off to a fantastic start this year. He’s averaging 264.5 yards passing, 118 yards rushing, and has already accounted for 15 total touchdowns in four games. He now faces one of the worst defenses in FBS. SMU is allowing 308.6 pass yards per game and is also allowing opposing quarterbacks of 92 rush yards per game.
Recommendation: Ward Jr. has been on fire to start this season and considering the matchup is the best way to start building your cash game lineup this week.
RB Kenneth Farrow – 7,500
Analysis: Farrow finally broke out last week after a slow start to the season, rushing for 159 yards and two touchdowns on 19 carries. He has to fight his quarterback for carries, but Farrow has received 59 percent of the rushing attempts allocated to running backs – with a sizable amount of the carries that have gone to his backups having come in garbage time. Ward Jr. will inevitably steal touchdowns from him, but Farrow did score 12 times on the ground last season in the games that Ward Jr. was quarterback, granted that that was in a different, though similar offensive system.
Recommendation: In a slate filled with committee backfields, ineffective rushing attacks, and game time decisions, the certainty of Farrow’s role and matchup is a welcome sight. He may not quite hit value, but Farrow should have no trouble surpassing 100 yards.
WR Demarcus Ayers – 6,600
Analysis: Ayers has been Greg Ward Jr’s favorite target so far this year, catching 32 passes for 377 yards and three touchdowns. He’s hauled in at least six passes each game and now faces an SMU pass defense that has been torched by all season long.
Recommendation: Ayers should have a nice game this week, but his price is a bit excessive considering what else is available at receiver. We prefer other options such as Juju Smith, Mike Thomas, and Courtland Sutton.
Washington at USC
Kickoff: 10-8-15, 9:00 PM EST
Spread: USC -17
O/U: 56
Washington
Expected Team Total Points: 19.5
Washington will likely struggle as an offensive unit this week on the road at USC. The committee approach the team takes at running back, as well as the generally ineffective passing game makes the Huskies generally unattractive in a slate in which they have the lowest team total.
USC
Expected Team Total Points: 36.5
QB Cody Kessler – 8,900
Analysis: Kessler has been very consistent so far this year, throwing for at least three touchdowns in every game in 2015 thus far. Washington is coming off a game in which they just gave up 342 yards through the air to the Jared Goff led California offense, and the Huskies play exceedingly tough against the run, only allowing 104.5 yards on the ground per game. USC will likely look to attack Washington mainly through the air and Kessler should have little trouble surpassing the 300 yard passing threshold for the third time this season.
Recommendation: Kessler is a very safe pick this week. We feel he should top 30 fantasy points with little trouble, and if you can’t fit Greg Ward Jr. into your lineup, Kessler is a solid building block.
WR Juju Smith-Schuster – 7,300
Analysis: Juju Smith-Schuster has been one of the best receivers in the country to start 2015. He’s scored in every game this season and is currently sixth in the country in receiving through five weeks, despite USC only play four games. Washington allowed seven catches and 112 yards against California’s top receiver, Kenny Lawler, two weeks ago, and Smith-Schuster is very likely to go over 100 yards receiving for a fourth straight game.
Recommendation: Smith-Schuster has the highest floor and highest ceiling of any receiver in this slate. He’s obviously expensive, and fitting him in along with a top running back and quarterback will require taking chances at other positions, but Smith-Schuster should easily deliver value at this price.
WR Steven Mitchell Jr. – 4,600 WR Isaac Whitney -3,000
Analysis: Mitchell has yet to have a true breakout game, but has delivered modest production so far, at least partially validating the hype from this offseason. He had his best game of the season two weeks ago against Arizona State, hauling in four balls for 66 yards. Because Adoree’ Jackson is only on the field with the offense for a handful of snaps per game, Mitchell largely functions as USC’s number two option in the passing game. There’s been talk of him lining up as an outside receiver in addition to playing the slot, which he’s mostly been doing this year, and this should only get him more opportunities. Isaac Whitney has largely been backing up starting receiver Darreus Rogers, but Rogers went down with a hamstring injury two weeks ago and Whitney stepped in catching two passes for 10 yards and a score. Rogers is considered a game-time decision this week and Whitney would likely start if Rogers were unable to go.
Recommendation: Mitchell’s role is increasing in this offense, but he’s still not seeing a ton of targets. We feel he has a wide range of outcomes this week and is best used as a tournament option. If we get confirmation that Rogers is going to sit out this Thursday, Whitney would be a good option as a minimum priced punt play.
Southern Miss at Marshall
Kickoff: 10-9-15, 7:00 PM EST
Spread: Marshall -5.5
O/U: 58.5
Southern Miss
Expected Team Total Points: 26.5
QB Nick Mullens – 6,300
Analysis: Nick Mullens has thrown for the fifth most yards in the FBS so far this season, totaling 1691 yards to go with 14 touchdowns. He threw for 311 yards against Mississippi State and 447 yards against Nebraska, so it’s not like he’s been feasting solely on inferior competition. Marshall has given up the 19th least pass yards (161.4) per game, but they’ve yet to face a team ranked higher than 57th in pass yards per game in the FBS.
Recommendation: Mullens is a chalk cash game play at his price of 6,300 this week. Even if he struggles and Southern Miss falls behind, it should only result in him throwing more.
RB Ito Smith – 4,800 RB Jalen Richard – 4,300 RB Justice Hayes – 4,200
Analysis: Ito Smith and Jalen Richard see most of the time at running back in this up-tempo system. Richard gained most of his rushing yards (63 percent) against Texas State in the team’s third game of the season, though he also leads the team in rushing touchdowns with five. Ito Smith has seen 20 less carries than Richard, but both players have 365 rush yards on the year. Smith is also the team’s third leading receiver, with 18 catches. Justice Hayes led Southern Miss in rushing last week, but most of his yardage was in garbage time.
Analysis: Ito Smith’s role in the passing game gives him the highest floor of this trio. He’s averaging 126 yards of offense a game and the PPR format is a nice boost to his value. Jalen Richard would need to be featured like he was against Texas State (unlikely), or score multiple touchdowns to hit value. Hayes shouldn’t be on your radar.
WR Mike Thomas – 4,000
Analysis: Thomas got off to a slow start this season, missing the team’s second game with an injury, and wasn’t productive for the first three games of the year. He has gone for over 100 yards each of the last two weeks and is clearly regaining the form that made him the team’s leading receiver in 2014.
Recommendation: At the price of 4,000 he’s an easy play in your cash game lineups.
WR Casey Martin – 4,900 WR DJ Thompson 3,200
Analysis: Martin has largely been a possession receiver over the course of his career, but has scored five touchdowns over his last three games, and leads the team in catches, yards, and receiving touchdowns in 2015. DJ Thompson is the team’s third starting receiver. He’s caught at least two passes in every game this season, but is no higher than fourth in line for targets when factoring in the running backs as well.
Recommendation: DJ Thompson doesn’t have to do much to hit value at the price of 3,200. Even if you have a lot of exposure to the Southern Miss offense, he makes sense as an option that can offer you salary relief. Martin was clearly the team’s top receiving option while Michael Thomas was healing up, but he took a backseat this past week, only catching four passes for 36 yards against North Texas. We still like his chances to have a solid game this week.
Marshall
Expected Team Total Points: 32
QB Chase Litton – 6,300
Analysis: Chase Litton has performed admirably in relief of injured starter Michael Birdsong, winning each of the three games in which he’s played. He’s thrown eight touchdowns in that span, but has yet to throw for more than 270 yards.
Recommendation: Marshall will likely look to rely mostly on the running game against Southern Miss as the passing game simply hasn’t been as dynamic as it was in recent years with Rakeem Cato at the helm. He doesn’t have the upside of other quarterbacks in this slate and it’s not as if he’s cheaply priced at 6,300.
RB Devon Jonson – 8,800 RB Tony Pittman – 6,800
Analysis: As of now, it’s unclear if Devon Johnson will suit up. Over the last two seasons, he’s been one of the best running backs in the country when healthy, but was slowed last year by a shoulder injury, and missed last week’s game with a back injury. Coach Doc Holliday stated earlier this week that he expected Johnson to return to practice and that there is a “good chance” that he plays against Southern Miss. Tony Pittman has rushed for over 100 yards in place of Johnson each of the last two weeks and whichever running back starts should be in for a big day against a Southern Miss defense allowing 201 yards rushing per game.
Recommendation: This is going to be a situation to track on Twitter leading up to kickoff. If Johnson doesn’t suit up Pittman would become a top option. If we get confirmation that Johnson is starting, his price of 8,800 would prevent him from being a cash game play, considering the uncertainty of his usage and the potential for re-injury, but he would make for a great tournament option.
NC State at Virginia Tech
Kickoff: 10-9-15, 8:00 PM EST
Spread: Even
O/U: 51
NC State
Expected Team Total Points: 25.5
QB Jacoby Brissett – 5,800
Analysis: Jacoby Brissett’s efficiency is his calling card - he’s thrown for seven touchdowns and zero interceptions thus far in 2015 – he’s unfortunately far better in real life than he is in DFS. Brissett has only accounted for eight of his team’s 28 offensive touchdowns so far, roughly 28.5%. In a game in which his team is only projected to score 25.5 points, it doesn’t seem likely that Brissett has a hand in more than one or two scores. Virginia Tech is only allowing 158 pass yards per game and Brissett has yet to throw for more than 220 yards in a single game.
Recommendation: Virginia Tech has been far worse against the run than the pass so far, which plays into NC State’s tendency to creatively utilize multiple running backs. Brissett isn’t a preferred option this week.
RB Matt Dayes – 7,300
Analysis: Dayes has gotten off to a scorching start so far this season, scoring 10 touchdowns in five games. After Shadrach Thornton returned from a two game suspension to open the season, it looked like this backfield could devolve into a committee, but Thornton was kicked off the team following an arrest prior to last week’s game. The result was Dayes seeing 19 of the 20 carries allotted to running backs in the team’s 20-17 loss to Louisville. He was only able to churn out 68 yards on the ground, but that was against a tough Louisville run defense only allowing 3.8 yards per carry. Dayes now faces a Virginia Tech defense that, on the surface, has been very susceptible to the run this year, allowing 197 yards per game. A closer look though shows that the Hokies have only given up two 100 yard rushing games to running backs: against Ohio State in week one (nothing to be ashamed of) and last week against Pittsburgh’s Quadree Ollison. In fact, of the 197 rush yards per game that Virginia Tech is allowing, on average 78 of those yards are coming from quarterbacks, meaning the Hokies are only allowing 119 yards per game to running backs.
Recommendation: Dayes’s projected volume gives him a nice floor this week, but his price of 7,300 makes him more a GPP option in our eyes. We prefer other, similarly priced, players such as Kenneth Farrow, Devon Johnson or Tony Pittman (assuming we get word of if Johnson will play prior to kickoff), and Juju Smith (if you’re considering Dayes for a FLEX spot) – all of whom are playing in games with higher projected totals and have very soft matchups.
WR Jaylen Samuels – 5,000
Analysis: Jaylen Samuels has clearly established himself as Jacoby Brissett’s top receiving option, leading the team in catches, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. He’s caught between four and six passes every game, including five last week against a very strong Louisville pass defense. Samuels also has four rushing touchdowns this season. He only has 12 carries on the year, but most of his running opportunities come on jet sweeps out of the slot. Fortunately, NC State generally only calls this play close to the goal line, giving him a high probability of scoring. He hasn’t scored on the ground in either of the team’s last two games, and didn’t record a carry last week. Interestingly, Coach Dave Doeren stated in his weekly press conference that he believes ‘you’re not going to sit there and just run downhill on their (Virginia Tech) front and have a good day doing it.’ Potentially, that could be an intimation that more creative running plays involving Samuels could be called this week.
Recommendation: Samuels’s relatively high catch figures give him a decent floor, but we see any rushing attempts as a bonus, more than a part of his production that should be relied upon. He has a good chance of hitting value this week, but we’re not counting on him for a huge game.
Virginia Tech
Expected Team Total Points: 25.5
QB Brandon Motley – 5,600 QB Michael Brewer – 5,400
Analysis: Michael Brewer is likely to be a game-time decision this week, after missing the last four games with a broken collar bone. Brandon Motley had played well in his first three games replacing Brewer, before falling flat last week against Pittsburgh, only throwing for 91 yards, while rushing for -14 yards in that game. NC State has allowed only 146 yards passing per game so far this year, but has played four Group of Five opponents, and last week faced Louisville’s Lamar Jackson, who primarily relies on his legs.
Recommendation: Brewer offers very little upside even if he returns and isn’t a viable option. If he were to be ruled out, Motley would be an interesting tournament option. He is moderately priced, and after seeing Lamar Jackson rush for 121 yards last week, we like the potential for Motley to have a big day running the ball. Still, Motley’s likely low ownership is his primary draw, as few players are likely to have him in their lineups due to the numerous other quality quarterback options in this slate.
WR Isaiah Ford – 4,700 WR Bucky Hodges – 4,000
Analysis: Isaiah Ford has had solid games in good matchups (Purdue, Furman, and East Carolina), but much like the rest of the team, struggled last week against Pittsburgh. Bucky Hodges has largely failed to build upon his impressive freshman season, only catching 12 passes so far in 2015.
Recommendation: Both players would receive a large boost with the return of Michael Brewer. Virginia Tech has struggled to establish any sort of run game this year, outside of Brandon Motley, and despite NC State representing a difficult test for the Virginia Tech passing game, both Ford and Hodges would see a solid allotment of targets with Brewer playing. If Brewer was announced as starting quarterback in advance, we’d feel comfortable projecting Ford to hit value, as the clear top receiver in this offense, but Hodges has been too inconsistent this season to recommend him as anything more than a tournament play.