Photo: Ken Blaze, USA Today Sports

Details:

• Entry Deadline (First Game Kickoff): 9-17-15, 7:30 PM EST
• Number of games in slate: 4 games

Clemson at Louisville

Kickoff: 9-17-15, 7:30 PM EST

Spread: Clemson -7

O/U: 54

Clemson

Expected Team Total Points: 30.5

Deshaun Watson – 9,500

Analysis: Deshaun Watson has yet to be tested over the season’s first two weeks, only playing one total series in the second half of games against Wofford and Appalachian State. Watson has been very efficient so far this season, completing 37 of his 48 pass attempts for 442 yards and five touchdowns. The rushing statistics have not been there so far, as he has only ran for 39 yards, but the team has likely instructed him to be discerning in these first two contests against lesser opponents, especially considering that he tore his ACL last November. Watson averaged 35 rushing yards per game in starts against ACC opponents last year, and we expect that he’ll be turned loose this week against Louisville. Though Watson lost his favorite target, Mike Williams, to injury in the season opener, Clemson’s receiving corps should not be a concern for Watson’s production. Artavis Scott, Charone Peake, Deon Cain, and Ray-Ray McCloud represent more than enough talent and production to ensure that Watson will not struggle to find open receivers. The Lousville defense that Watson will be throwing against just gave up 236 yards and three scores through the air to Houston quarterback Greg Ward. While Ward is a great athlete, he’s nowhere near the passer that Watson is. A 300 yard passing day should be expected from Watson in this game.

Recommendation: Watson is the highest priced option in this set of games, but possesses the highest ceiling of any player, while also having a very high floor. The fact that he will have to play a full game this Thursday, as opposed to the single halves he’s been on the field in the first two games, will beneficial regardless of the uptick in quality of the opponent. Watson is a great building block for your cash game lineups.

Wayne Gallman – 6,400

Analysis: Gallman has yet to go over 100 yards rushing this season, but like Watson; he has played very sparingly in the second half of both games. For the time that the Clemson starters have been on the field, Gallman has been the clear top running back, receiving 14 of the 25 running back carries against Wofford, and 15 of the 22 running back carries against Appalachian State. The Louisville defense has been very soft against the run in the early going, though they have faced two teams that are exceedingly strong at running the football. Both Auburn and Houston have had running backs go for more than one hundred yards against Louisville, and Houston quarterback Greg Ward added an additional 98 yards on the ground. With Deshaun Watson representing the best passer that the Cardinals defense will have faced so far in 2015, Louisville won’t be stacking the box against Gallman. A huge game probably should not be expected, but Gallman is a good bet to see at least 15 touches on Thursday.

Recommendation: To hit value, Gallman needs to rush for 100 yards and a touchdown on Thursday against a defense that has been soft against the run so far. His upside is not exceedingly high as Clemson has myriad ways to score, but he should receive at least fifteen touches. If you are looking to play him in cash games, Gallman will likely cost you the ability to either play one of the top quarterbacks or a top receiver, most of which have a far greater ceiling. We recommend limiting your overall exposure, but if you’re making multiple cash game lineups, Gallman makes sense as a solid option.

Artavis Scott – 7,400

Analysis: With Mike Williams sidelined for the foreseeable future, Artavis Scott will operate as Deshaun Watson’s top receiver. Scott sees a ton of targets in the short to intermediate range, and possesses the speed and athleticism to turn those targets into long gains. Scott caught six balls in each of the first two games this season and ended 2014 with at least seven catches in seven of the final nine games in which he played. Scott has the highest floor of any receiver in this slate.

Recommendation: Scott is pricy, but he’s got the highest floor of any receiver, as he sees a ton of targets and can turn any of them into long gains. We recommend him as both a cash and tournament option.

Charone Peake – 4,400

Analysis: Last week against Appalachian State, Charone Peake stepped up in Mike Williams’ absence, catching four passes for 86 yards and two scores. Peake has been a very streaky player throughout his Clemson career. This can partially be blamed both on the depth that Clemson has historically had at the wide receiver spot, as well as Peake’s unfortunate injury history - he tore his ACL two games into 2013 and missed six more games in 2014 with knee issues. That being said, Peake has never had an opportunity to be the number two option in the passing game before and it was a good sign that he was able to take advantage of this chance against Appalachian State. He has nowhere near the safe floor of Artavis Scott, but Peake’s upside makes him absolutely relevant in a mid-week slate.

Recommendation: While Peake does not have the résumé of other receivers in this slate, he is very affordably priced and has great upside as Deshaun Watson’s best deep threat.

Louisville

Expected Team Total Points: 23.5

Kyle Bolin – 5,400 Lamar Jackson – 5,600

Analysis: Louisville has played multiple quarterbacks in each of its first two games. In its first game against Auburn, Reggie Bonnafon started and gave way to Lamar Jackson. Then, last week against Houston, Jackson started before being relieved by Kyle Bolin in the fourth quarter. Bobby Petrino has yet to name a starter for this week, though he has said he believes he knows who will start. Lamar Jackson would be the best option from a fantasy perspective because of his running ability, but Bolin is most likely going to get the start, as he performed well against Houston, leading the team to two fourth quarter touchdown drives.

Recommendation: Even if Bolin gets the start, he will be facing one of the best pass defenses in the country. Clemson allowed 162 passing yards per game in 2014 – the third lowest average in the FBS. In 2015, the Tigers have only allowed 183 total passing yards. With this being the case, and Clemson only returning one starter from the 2014 defensive line, we expect Louisville to focus on establishing the run game early. Even if the Cardinals are playing from behind, throwing should be a difficult task for Bolin, and a productive fantasy day should not be expected.

Brandon Radcliff – 4.800

Analysis: Radcliff has not gotten off to a great start this year, only receiving 10 carries against Houston and 17 carries against Auburn. Running quarterbacks, Reggie Bonnafon and Lamar Jackson, have taken carries from Radcliff, and game flow has not been on Louisville’s side either. Radcliff will continue to lead the Cardinals in carries, and if Kyle Bolin does indeed start this week, that will be an upgrade to Radcliff’s stock. Bolin is a pocket passer whose throwing ability will command more respect than that of Louisville’s other quarterbacks. Though Clemson only surrendered 3.6 yards per carry to Wofford and Appalachian State, they did give up 326 yards rushing in those two games. Game flow will likely not be on Louisville’s side in this one, but we’re still expecting a much better effort from Radcliff than the 43 yard performance last week.

Recommendation: Radcliff is very reasonably priced for a starting running back. Regardless of who Louisville’s quarterback is Thursday, expect the team to emphasize the running game, as Clemson boasts one of the best pass defenses in the nation. Radcliff is the best value at running back in this slate.

Ja’quay Savage – 4,000

Analysis: James Quick and Jamari Staples have already been ruled out for this Thursday. Savage stepped up with seven catches for 79 yards and a score last week and should serve as Louisville’s top receiving threat. The four star transfer from Texas A&M certainly has the talent to making a lasting impact, and now also has the opportunity. The issue here is that there is a good chance that Savage will see a lot of coverage from preseason third-team All-American Mackensie Alexander.

Recommendation: Savage represents one of the better wide receiver values in this slate. If Kyle Bolin gets the start, the passing game for Louisville will definitely see an uptick in production. As Savage really has no track record of production prior to this week, there is still risk, especially going up against of the nation’s better pass defenses, but rostering him should help you fit in some of the higher priced options in this slate.

Florida State at Boston College

Kickoff: 9-18-15, 8:00 PM EST

Spread: Florida State -7.5

O/U: 51

Florida State

Expected Team Total Points: 29.25

Everett Golson – 8,400

Analysis: Golson was absolutely abysmal last week against South Florida, and Florida State had to rely almost entirely on Dalvin Cook in order to secure victory. Golson has shown in his time at Notre Dame that he’s capable of big games, as well as going through stretches in which he plays very poorly. Whereas last year’s Florida State team relied heavily on Jameis Winston’s arm, expect this year’s team to follow the trend from its first two games of emphasizing the running game.

Recommendation: Golson is priced as a top quarterback, but it’s very unlikely he approaches the numbers that Mike Bercovici and Deshaun Watson will put up this week. This game will likely be played with a slow tempo and both teams will make a concerted effort to run the ball. Such a formula is not conducive to producing a solid fantasy day from Golson.

Dalvin Cook – 9,400

Analysis: Cook is coming off of a monster game last week against South Florida, rushing for 266 yards and three touchdowns. It’s clear that he’s the focal point of the offense and Florida State showed very little faith in Everett Golson. Florida State will undoubtedly look to ride Cook yet again this week. While it’s unlikely Boston College will be able to completely slow down Cook, a repeat performance should not be expected. The Eagles defense returns six starters, including three defensive linemen from a squad that gave up the fourth lowest rush yards per game average in 2014. Through two games in 2015, granted, against FCS competition, Boston College has only allowed a total of 14 yards rushing.

Recommendation: Taking Cook will make it exceedingly difficult to build a solid lineup. The matchup against Boston College also poses a far tougher test than Cook has faced this season and, while he should still have a solid day, it’s highly unlikely he will justify his price tag.

Boston College

Expected Team Total Points: 21.75

Darius Wade – 5,400

Analysis: We’ve seen very little of what Wade can actually do on the field because Boston College has run the ball so much in its first two games against FCS opponents. While we know don’t what to expect from Wade as a passer, Wade’s running ability is not in question. It’s apparent from his high school tape and practice reports that Wade can run the ball very well. However, expect Boston College’s game plan on Friday to revolve largely around establishing the run with its stable of tailbacks.

Recommendation: Expecting Wade to step right in and put up running statistics comparable to Tyler Murphy’s from last season is probably not wise. That being said, part of the reason that Wade has been able to beat quarterbacks with better passing ability is his mobility, which Boston College will unquestionably look to utilize. Wade is not a cash game play, but his running ability and relatively cheap price tag make him an intriguing GPP option.

Tyler Rouse – 4,700 Jon Hilliman – 5,600

Analysis: The Boston College backfield tandem has been highly efficient in limited action against lesser competition to start the year, combining for six touchdowns on just 33 carries. The matchup against Florida State does not look overly menacing after watching South Florida’s Marlon Mack find success on the ground against the Seminoles, rushing for 83 yards on 18 carries last Saturday. The real dilemma is how carries will be distributed between these two running backs. Jon Hilliman entered the year as the favorite to lead the backfield in touches, but has only averaged 3.8 yards per carry in 2015, and also did not see a touch until Rouse had already scored two touchdowns last week. Hilliman is still most likely going to be the running back to lead the backfield in touches. He’s built much more like a lead running back, weighing 224 pounds compared to the 194 that Rouse checks in at. Still, Rouse has performed well enough that he will likely see a fair share of carries. The real issue here is that Boston College’s offensive line, which returned zero starters from 2014, has yet to be truly tested this season.

Recommendation: Boston College will invariably look to establish the running game early. However, whether it be the offensive line failing to hold up, a committee approach being taken at running back, or Florida State jumping out to a lead early, there are numerous scenarios in which the Boston College running game could fall flat on Friday. We still project Hilliman to clear 15 carries, but we recommend neither him nor Rouse as a cash game option this week with so much uncertainty abound in this backfield.

Idaho State at Boise State

Kickoff: 9-18-15, 9:00 PM EST

Spread: Boise State -29.5

O/U: 67.5

Boise State

Expected Team Total Points: 48.5

Ryan Finley – 9,100

Analysis: Finley has largely struggled in his first two games as Boise State starting quarterback, throwing for 426 yards, one touchdown, and four interceptions. The coaching staff has confirmed that, despite the rocky start, Finley is still the starter. This week’s matchup against FCS opponent Idaho State should yield far better results than Finley has previously experienced. The main questions concerning Finley should be: how long will he play and will Boise State rely mainly on the running game against this inferior opponent?

Recommendation: Finley’s price is comparable to that of Deshaun Watson and Mike Bercovici. With that being the case it is difficult to justify Finley as anything more than a contrarian play. He likely won’t play the full game, and even if he does, Boise State has established itself as a run-oriented team this season. Even against Idaho State, it’s unlikely that Finley justifies this price tag.

Jeremy McNichols – 8,900

Analysis: McNichols has scored Boise State’s first five touchdowns on the young season, but has not averaged even four yards per carry in either game thus far. He’s received 37 total touches through Boise State’s first two games, and has clearly separated himself from what was thought to be a committee at running back. McNichols should continue to be Boise State’s workhorse against lowly Idaho State, for as long as the game remains close.

Recommendation: Playing McNichols essentially rules out the potential to insert one of the top quarterback options into your lineup, a position at which there is far less depth in this slate than running back. McNichols will very likely surpass 100 yards and score at least one touchdown, but the blowout potential of this game caps his upside. We don’t recommend him in cash games.

Shane Williams-Rhodes – 7,000

Analysis: Shane Williams-Rhodes has caught at least 65 passes each of the last two seasons, and just recorded an 11 catch performance in Boise State’s last game against BYU. While he does have the speed to break long touchdowns, Williams-Rhodes generally catches passes very close to the line of scrimmage - Williams-Rhodes has only averaged 8.5 yards per catch over his four year career.

Recommendation: Williams-Rhodes is normally a solid play because of the PPR format enhances his value. However, it’s likely that he will not play a full game this week, lessening his chance to rack up a large quantity of targets. It will likely take a long touchdown or two for him to hit value, and game flow makes him a risky option.

New Mexico at Arizona State

Kickoff: 9-18-15, 10:00 PM EST

Spread: Arizona State -28

O/U: 65.5

New Mexico

Expected Team Total Points: 18.75

Lamar Jordan – 5,000 Austin Apodaca – 4,500

Analysis: Both quarterbacks have seen time in the Lobos’ first two games this season. While Lamar Jordan will continue to start at quarterback, Apodaca will substitute in throughout as the game as an option when the team is looking for more of an aerial threat. New Mexico quarterbacks have historically run the ball less than other triple option offenses – a Lobo quarterback has only rushed for over 100 yards twice in the team’s last 14 games.

Recommendation: Though Arizona State’s last opponent, Cal Poly, executed their triple option offense very successfully, both New Mexico quarterbacks have very low ceilings this week. The fact that both will see action this week, with Jordan starting, but Apodaca likely to see the majority of action once New Mexico falls behind, makes the pair not worth considering in cash games.

Teriyon Gipson – 4,500 Jhurell Pressley – 4,400

Analysis: Jhurell Pressley is the starting running back in this triple option offense, but is far from the only runner to see a material amount of carries. Pressley has had a tough time turning his carries into production so far. Most of his touches come via the ‘dive play’ but beat writer Rick Wright has noted that after two games, New Mexico has had trouble blocking in the middle of its offensive line. Teriyon Gipson missed New Mexico’s first game with a meniscus injury, but returned last week with nine carries for 71 yards and two touchdowns. While Gipson is technically Pressley’s back-up, he additionally sees time at slot back and sees pitches, passes, as well as standard running plays.

Recommendation: Even though Pressley is the starter, he only saw one more touch than Gipson last week. The more creative usage that Gipson is subject to makes him the more attractive play this week in a game in which New Mexico figures to play from behind. Because of the likelihood of a blowout, and New Mexico’s relatively even distribution of carries to multiple players, both these players should be viewed as risky plays.

Dameon Gamblin – 4,800

Analysis: Dameon Gamblin had the best game of his career last week, catching eight passes for 131 yards and a touchdown, while also rushing four times for 42 yards. New Mexico does not throw the ball often, but when they do, Gamblin is usually the receiver targeted. Gamblin has 11 receptions on the year, while the team’s next closest receiver has three. Gamblin also serves as a pitchman in this triple option offense on occasion, and has six carries for 53 yards this season.

Recommendation: Because the team throws so little, it’s best to treat Gamblin similarly to how you would a receiver in Georgia Tech’s option offense. Targets are far from a guarantee, and while his price of 4,800 is not overly steep, there’s a real chance that Gamblin only catches one or two passes. He’s best reserved for GPP lineups.

Arizona State

Expected Team Total Points: 46.75

Mike Bercovici – 8,900

Analysis: Bercovici has yet to put up eye popping stats in line with his cameo last season, but there’s a strong chance that changes this week. Though when these two teams met last season, Arizona State quarterbacks only threw for 198 yards, that Sun Devils team was much surer of its identity and strengths. Arizona State knows that if it is going to compete once PAC-12 play begins, Bercovici and the passing game will need to be far more effective than they have been to this point. The outcome of this game against New Mexico should not be in doubt, and it makes sense that Arizona State will use this opportunity to sharpen the aerial attack.

Recommendation: Bercovici offers a very safe floor in this game, as he should have no trouble throwing for at least 250 yards and a couple of scores. The opportunity will be there for a substantially larger output if the game remains close, which isn’t out of the question considering how Arizona State’s defense has performed thus far. We view Bercovici as a safe, cash game option in this slate.

Demario Richard – 8,000 D.J. Foster – 8,500

Analysis: Demario Richard and D.J. Foster will see the most touches of the Arizona State running backs and receivers. Richard has operated as the team’s primary running back, receiving 41 carries through two games. He scored two touchdowns last week and should be a lock for close to 100 yards and a score once again. Foster, last year’s starting running back, is utilized in multiple different roles in this offense. He’ll line up at receiver on most plays and is the team’s leading receiver in receptions and yardage through two games. However, Foster will also shift into the backfield and take handoffs, rushing 15 times for 89 yards so far this year. He’s the most dangerous weapon in this offense and Arizona State knows it needs to get him touches.

Recommendation: There’s potential for these two to have huge games, but factoring in the blowout potential, both players are more likely to score 20-30 points than 40-50. Foster is best reserved for tournaments due to the depth at receiver in this slate. The running back position though, does not have many value plays, making Richard a better option in cash games.

Devin Lucien – 4,000

Analysis: Devin Lucien came to Arizona State via UCLA for 2015 via the graduate transfer provision. While he was just a face in the crowd at UCLA, after two games it looks like Lucien could be on his way to stepping up as one of Mike Bercovici’s favorite targets, catching seven passes for 79 yards last week.

Recommendation: Lucien probably is not going to light the world on fire on a weekly basis, but he has a secure role in the starting lineup, and at 4,000 is cheaply priced in a matchup in which Arizona State should have little trouble throwing the ball. He’s better suited for cash games than tournaments.

Tim White – 3,000

Analysis: Tim White recorded his first touches of the season on Arizona State’s final touchdown drive last week. On that possession, he accounted for 82 of the team’s 86 yards, running for 59 yards on one play, while catching two passes for 23 yards, and a touchdown.

Recommendation: Arizona State is looking for playmakers at the receiver position and White has a good chance to emerge at some point this season. With the likelihood that this game turns into a blowout, even if White doesn’t see time early on, he should see significant run in the second half. Clearly, there’s substantial risk here, but he’s our favorite minimum priced option in this slate.