Details:
- Entry Deadline (First Game Kickoff): 9-10-15, 8:00 PM EST
- Number of games in slate: 3 games
Louisiana Tech at Western Kentucky
Kickoff: 8:00 PM EST
Spread: Louisiana Tech -1
O/U: 62
Western Kentucky
Expected Team Total Points: 30.5
Brandon Doughty – 10,100
Analysis: Brandon Doughty is coming off of a very subpar performance by his standards, only throwing for 209 yards and one touchdown in the season opener. Awaiting Doughty this week is the defense against which he had his worst performance of 2014, only throwing for 134 yards to go along with four interceptions. Louisiana Tech blitzed Doughty repeatedly during last season’s encounter and the same should be expected on Thursday. Additionally, Louisiana Tech returns All C-USA First Team safety Xavier Woods and his defensive backfield teammates Kentrell Brice and Adairius Barnes, both of whom were named All C-USA Honorable Mentions.
Recommendation: Doughty is the most expensive quarterback in this slate, priced 1,300 more than the next closest quarterback. While it’s very possible that Doughty throws for over 300 yards and three touchdowns and justifies his price, the real issue is that there are not that many affordable value plays in this slate, making it harder to construct a solid lineup with Doughty in it.
Leon Allen – 9,500
Analysis: Going into Western Kentucky’s first game last week, there were concerns over whether Leon Allen would be suspended. In the end though, Allen played the entire game and though he only rushed for 56 yards on 15 carries, the entire WKU offense struggled in what was a slow paced, defensive affair. Louisiana Tech returns two defensive linemen from a defense that held opponents to the 16th lowest yards per carry rate in 2014, and held Allen to only 76 yards rushing on 14 carries when the two teams met last year. It’s exceedingly unlikely that this game is a repeat of last year’s, in which WKU lost 59-10 largely due to Doughty’s inability to deal with the blitz, and Allen should be in for a much bigger game if this one stays close.
Recommendation: Viewing this matchup as neutral is probably in your best interest, as this doesn’t project as a scenario in which Allen puts up five points, or 40 points. Neutral probably isn’t good enough to consider him a cash game play when factoring in his price, and including him in your lineup makes constructing a solid lineup substantially more difficult.
Jared Dangerfield – 6,400
Analysis: It sounds like Dangerfield is still not fully recovered from his hamstring injury that severely limited his snaps last week against Vanderbilt. While Coach Brohm offered optimism about Dangerfield playing this week, nothing is definitive.
Recommendation: Dangerfield didn’t register a catch last week, yet his price increased. Unless we get absolute confirmation that he’s a ‘full-go’ he shouldn’t even be considered for your lineup.
Tyler Higbee – 4,100
Analysis: Higbee was Western Kentucky’s leading receiver last week, totaling 102 yards on four catches with a touchdown against Vanderbilt. Louisiana Tech is breaking in an entirely new group of linebackers this year, as none of their 2014 starters are back with the team. It’s probably not accurate to call Higbee the top target in this offense, but WKU actively looks to get him involved, which is far more than what can be said about most tight ends at the collegiate level.
Recommendation: While Higbee is not priced quite as reasonably as last week, he was 3,100 last Thursday; he is still a relative bargain considering his role in the WKU offense. He doesn’t have the ceiling of other receiving options in this slate, but he has a solid floor and should help you construct a lineup that includes some of the higher priced options.
Taywan Taylor – 5,100 Antwane Grant – 4,400 Nicholas Norris – 3,600
Analysis: Western Kentucky lived up to its billing in its season opener as an offense that spreads the wealth, with no receiver catching more than five balls. While we should assume that the passing game will be far more successful going forward than it was against Vanderbilt, the tertiary receivers in this offense should continue to find targets hard to come by, especially with Jared Dangerfield continuing to progress in his recovery from a hamstring injury that limited him opening night.
Recommendation: These guys are nothing more than lottery tickets at this stage and should be viewed strictly as contrarian plays.
Louisiana Tech
Expected Team Total Points: 31.5
Jeff Driskel – 8,700
Analysis: We’ve only seen Jeff Driskel play one half of one game so far in a Louisiana Tech uniform, against an FCS level opponent nonetheless. He dominated in that brief appearance though, throwing four touchdowns and 274 yards and four touchdowns on only 15 pass attempts. The expectation this week is that WKU will be making it a priority to contain Kenneth Dixon, which should open up the passing game for Driskel. It also helps that he’ll be throwing against a pass defense that gave up on average 272 yards per game in 2014. Even though Driskel only rushed three times against Southern, Coach Skip Holtz confirmed that there were packages that were not unleashed in the season opener. Expect the running ability that Driskel demonstrated while at Florida to be on display more this week.
Recommendation: Driskel has largely frustrated during his time at the collegiate level, but this is a dream matchup and we recommend that you have exposure in your lineups this week. He’s priced as the third highest quarterback in this slate but could easily put up the most points of any.
Kenneth Dixon – 10,400
Analysis: Kenneth Dixon is one the best running backs in the country, is utilized in both the running and passing game, and is playing in a game that is likely to be an absolute shootout. While Western Kentucky will undoubtedly game plan to load the box and slow him down, no ‘Group of Five’ team has held Dixon to 85 total yards or less since 2013. He’s also scored at least one touchdown in every game he’s played in since the beginning of 2014. It’s safe to expect another rock solid effort from Dixon this week, against a defense that was one of the worst against the run last season, and allowed 168 rush yards against Vanderbilt last week.
Recommendation: It’s not a question of if Dixon will produce so much as it is whether you build a good lineup around him. Play Dixon and you effectively rule out all of the top receivers and top quarterback options, and guarantee that you will need to use multiple high-risk minimum priced players. Such a strategy is not recommended for cash games and Dixon is best utilized as a GPP play in this slate.
Paul Turner – 6,500 Trent Taylor – 5,800
Analysis: Paul Turner and Trent Taylor are clearly the top two receiving options in this offense. Eight of starting quarterback Jeff Driskel’s 15 passes were targeted at this duo, with Turner seeing five balls, snagging three, while Taylor caught all three of the passes thrown his way. Turner, an LSU transfer, was banged up for much of 2014, missing two games with an IT band issue that nagged him throughout the season. Taylor proved to be the team’s most reliable option last season, leading the team with 64 catches. Western Kentucky will certainly focus its efforts largely on stopping Kenneth Dixon, which should leave ample opportunity for Taylor and Turner to exploit a pass defense that was one of the worst in the FBS last season. Also working in the favor of Louisiana Tech receivers, WKU’s best cornerback, Wonderful Terry, aggravated a pre-existing ankle injury against Vanderbilt, and though he played through the pain, it’s been noted that he’s still dealing with the injury leading up to the game this week.
Recommendation: Turner and Taylor should be targeted early and often in this game and are both recommended plays.
Carlos Henderson – 4,600 Marlon Watts – 3,000
Analysis: Carlos Henderson, Louisiana Tech’s third receiver, did not start last week due to a finger injury. While he still worked his way into the game, it was Marlon Watts who played with the first team in his place. Though Watts caught four passes for 41 yards and a score, all of that production came after the backup quarterback had entered the game.
Recommendation: Reports still have Henderson wearing a cast and Watts likely to start this week. This probably makes Henderson off limits, and while there is legitimate risk to playing Watts, as he’s no higher than the number four option in this offense, he is our favorite minimum priced option from this game.
Miami at Florida Atlantic
Miami
Expected Team Total Points: 36.25
Brad Kaaya – 8,800
Analysis: Kaaya has thrown at least one touchdown in every game of his collegiate career, a remarkable stat considering that he started every game last season as a true freshman. Kaaya should have no problem find success passing against a soft Florida Atlantic defense that allowed 424 passing yards last week against Tulsa. The only thing that should potentially slow Kaaya down is if Miami decides to lean on the running game with their receiving group short-handed due to injuries.
Recommendation: Kaaya is a solid cash game play as a quarterback who should have no trouble putting up 20-25 fantasy points. Expecting a huge fantasy performance though is probably unrealistic, as Miami will likely be able to run the ball as effectively as they can pass it.
Joseph Yearby – 8,200 Mark Walton – 5,300
Analysis: Joseph Yearby and Mark Walton both had nice, abbreviated games against Bethune-Cookman. Yearby and Walton each saw time with the first team offense, both scoring touchdowns while Brad Kaaya was still in the game. Yearby will operate as the starter Friday, as he did in the season opener, but expect both to see double digit carries.
Recommendation: Yearby’s price essentially makes him unplayable, especially relative to Walton. Considering the projected game flow (Miami playing ahead throughout), and matchup (Florida Atlantic gave up 194 rush yards in week one and ranked 110th against the run in 2014), Walton makes for one of the better value plays at running back in this slate.
Rashawn Scott – 5,800 Herb Waters – 4,400 Malcolm Lewis 3,300
Analysis: Stacey Coley and Braxton Berrios have both been ruled out for Friday’s game due to injury. This should expand the roles of Waters and Lewis, who each saw four targets last week, and are both now starters. Scott was Kaaya’s go-to receiver last week, catching six balls for 100 yards and a touchdown, and projects to once again lead the team in receiving this week.
Recommendation: Scott should be viewed as one of the more reliable receiving options in this slate, as Miami’s clear top receiver. Waters and Lewis are both riskier plays, though Waters does have the better track record and we view him as the superior play of the two. Lewis is very cheap, but carries a ton of risk as he has a very limited resume in his four years as a Hurricane.
Standish Dobard – 3,000
Analysis: With Berrios and Coley out, Dobard should see more looks in the passing game. He has already showed that he is a capable target, filling in competently for Clive Walford in 2014, and catching two passes, including a touchdown last week. While little is known about how targets will be allocated this season in the Miami passing game, Dobard has a more secure role than most of the pass catching options in this offense.
Recommendation: Dobard is our favorite minimum priced option from this game. Miami has historically utilized their tight ends in the passing game under Al Golden’s watch and that trend should continue with Dobard.
Florida Atlantic
Expected Team Total Points: 18.75
Jaquez Johnson – 6,900
Analysis: Jaquez Johnson had a great first week going up against a weak Tulsa defense but should find things substantially more difficult against Miami. The sample size is obviously small, but in three career games against Power Five teams, Johnson has only averaged 92 yards passing, 36 yards rushing, while accounting for two total touchdowns. Also working against Johnson, Miami returns seven starters from a defense that allowed the ninth fewest passing yards per game in the FBS last season, and allowed an FBS low 26 passing yards in week one.
Recommendation: Regardless of Johnson’s running ability, solid showing in week one, and modest price relative to the other quarterbacks in this slate, we do not consider him a reliable cash game play this week. There is a strong possibility that Florida Atlantic struggles mightily to move the offense and that Johnson falls flat against a stingy defense. It’s best to consider him a tournament play in this matchup.
Greg Howell – 4,800
Analysis: Howell turned in a monster performance last week against Tulsa, piling up 138 yards and two touchdowns on 22 carries. The problem this week is that Florida Atlantic will very likely be playing from behind for much of this game, making it less likely that Howell will see significant touches. Also of note, no Florida Atlantic running back caught a pass last week, which doesn’t bode very well for Howell’s role when the team has to go into ‘comeback mode.’
Recommendation: Howell is the cheapest starting running back in this slate. Unless you are completely punting a running back spot in your lineup, he makes sense as an option, even though game flow is not likely to be on his side. There is definitive risk here though.
Jenson Stoshak – 5,100 Kalib Woods – 4,200
Analysis: While Stoshak and Woods both had breakout games in Saturday’s shootout against Tulsa, they face a far more difficult matchup and expecting a big game from either would be naive. We project quarterback Jaquez Johnson to struggle mightily against Miami’s stellar pass defense and we have similar concerns about his receivers.
Recommendation: Stoshak and Woods are not exorbitantly priced, but the likelihood that FAU’s passing game gets shut down makes them players with lower floors than we’d like from moderately priced receiving options.
Utah State at Utah
Utah State
Expected Team Total Points: 15.25
Chuckie Keeton – 6,300
Analysis: It’s looking more and more like we might never again see the Chuckie Keeton of old. After tearing his ACL during the 2013 season, Keeton ended up taking a medical redshirt in 2014 following an attempted comeback that was cut short after three games. Then, last week in the 2015 season opener against FCS opponent Southern Utah, Keeton only completed 16 of his 33 pass attempts for 166 yards and failed to lead the offense to a single touchdown. For further perspective, Utah State only converted one of its 15 third down conversion attempts in the game. Granted, Keeton is without his top receiver, Hunter Sharp who has been suspended for the first two games of 2015, but far more was expected entering 2015 of Keeton and the offense as a whole.
Recommendation: This game is expected to be low scoring and there is not much evidence suggesting that Keeton will have a big game this week. Despite his many accomplishments over the course of his Utah State career, and being the cheapest quarterback in this slate, Keeton shouldn’t be utilized as anything other than a GPP play.
LaJuan Hunt – 5,600
Analysis: Lajuan Hunt saw 23 carries last week turning them into 80 yards and he’ll likely see a large dose of touches once again versus Utah. The Utes rush defense only allowed 76 rushing yards against Michigan last week and Hunt will likely struggle to turn in an efficient night on the ground. Projected volume is the main factor that makes him relevant in this slate.
Recommendation: Even though Hunt is a good bet for twenty touches, you are hoping he capitalizes on a goal line opportunity or breaks free for a long run if you use him. He’s unlikely to run for 100 yards and is too expensive to justify his price unless scores at least once.
Utah
Expected Team Total Points: 28.75
Travis Wilson – 7,100
Analysis: Wilson is coming off of an efficient outing against Michigan in which he threw for 208 yards, completing 24 of his 33 attempts. However, no receiver has stepped up to offer Wilson a deep threat presence to this point and he only completed one pass of 20 yards or more against Michigan. Wilson will likely once again be asked to play the role of game manager in what projects to be a low scoring affair.
Recommendation: The problem here is that Wilson is quarterbacking a team that wants to rely heavily on their star running back in the game that is projected to have the lowest combined team total in this slate. While we have Wilson projected for 216 total yards, and he will likely account for at least one score, his upside is severely limited in this game.
Devontae Booker – 9,200
Analysis: Devontae Booker faced a very challenging test last week against a stout Michigan run defense. While he received 22 carries, he only turned them into 69 yards and a touchdown, though his value was buoyed by the seven passes he caught for 55 yards. Once again squaring off against a tough matchup this week (Utah State’s rush defense only allowed 129 yards per game last season), Booker’s projected usage is what gives him a very high floor.
Recommendation: Of the three highest priced running backs in this slate – Dixon, Booker, and Allen – we project Booker to deliver the best return on a basis of ‘Projected Points Per Dollar.’ With that being the case, you will still have to take significant risks at other positions in order to fit Booker into your lineup due to his price tag of 9,200.
