The 2015 college football season kicks off this Thursday with a great slate and we're bringing you a game-by-game preview of all the relevant players.
Details:
- Entry Deadline (First Game Kickoff): 9-3-15, 6:00 PM EST
- Number of games in slate: 9 games
North Carolina vs South Carolina (Neutral Field)
Kickoff: 6:00 PM EST
Spread: South Carolina -3
O/U: 65
North Carolina
Team Expected Points: 31
Marquise Williams - 9,700
Analysis: Marquise Williams’ ceiling is as high as any quarterback’s in the nation, though he has historically been inconsistent week to week. The UNC offense is the system that we have rated number one overall in our tempo rankings from 2014 and when the unit is playing well they’re as dynamic as any in the country. Williams played hurt down the stretch last season, fighting through a hip injury which he continued to recover from this spring. South Carolina returns eight starters from a defense that got carved up multiple times in 2014 by mobile quarterbacks, most notably by Joshua Dobbs and Deshaun Watson.
Recommendation: Marquise Williams is the second highest priced quarterback in this slate. Last year, in projected shootouts against East Carolina and NC State, Williams put up efforts of 7.78 and 3.98 DraftKings points, respectively, while also falling far short of value in matchups against Miami and Rutgers. Of course, he also turned in gems against Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, and Pittsburgh, going for at least 46 DraftKings points in each of those contests. Our concern is that considering the cost, there is too much risk to trust Williams in cash games, though he should certainly be included him in tournament lineups.
Elijah Hood – 3,600 TJ Logan – 5,000
Analysis: Elijah Hood is expected to serve as North Carolina’s starting running back for the season opener, over TJ Logan, who operated as the starter at the end of 2014. Marquise Williams, Hood, and Logan all project to have material roles in the run game and for this reason, Hood probably does not have the upside of other starting running backs. He’s not without risk, as he likely won’t see twenty carries or break 100 yards, and will need to score in order to put up a usable line. However, Hood is a bigger running back than Logan, and we expect him to see the majority of red zone work.
Recommendation: Logan is probably unplayable at his price even though he will still receive carries on game day. Hood is very interesting considering how cheap he is. Working Hood into your lineup should allow you to access some more expensive plays and it’s tough to argue with a potential starting running back for $3,600. The fact that we know that this will be a timeshare, in conjunction with Williams taking carries as well, limits the upside of your lineup though if you roll with Hood.
Ryan Switzer – 4,900 Quinshad Davis – 5,200 Mack Hollins – 3,900
Analysis: Mack Hollins only caught more than four passes in one game in 2014 but totaled eight touchdowns on the season. Quinshad Davis functions as a red zone target and possession receiver for UNC, but has been inconsistent throughout his career. Ryan Switzer sees more targets than either of Hollins and Davis, but the team has not done a good job using him creatively in the past and he has not put up many game-changing lines as a result.
Recommendation: Ryan Switzer’s value is definitely aided by DraftKings’ PPR scoring, but while his floor is not as low as the other receivers on the team, his ceiling is not as high. Hollins is listed as a back-up on the week one depth chart, so while his proclivity for the big play gives him upside, he is a huge risk. Overall, we’re shying away from UNC receivers as the whole is great than the individual parts, most weeks.
South Carolina
Expected Team Total Points: 34
Connor Mitch – 6,900
Analysis: Connor Mitch was officially named the South Carolina starter on August 25th. Mitch has the surrounding weapons and the matchup to potentially put together a nice game, but he has not had a particularly strong summer camp, and he has no established track record.
Recommendation: Mitch is not priced as a quarterback who is making his first career start, but rather his price is more indicative of someone with an established resume. We don’t see Mitch as a value play.
Brandon Wilds – 7,500 David Williams – 4,300
Analysis: Brandon Wilds has been named the starter and while coaches and media have emphasized that he will split carries with David Williams, this is a fantastic matchup for Wilds. He has shown flashes of great play amidst injuries, and backing up Mike Davis in the past. If he is given a starter’s workload against a UNC defense that ranked as the 12th worst rush defense in the FBS, Wilds will have a big day.
Recommendation: The risk here lies in the possibility that this situation is treated as a true timeshare. While Wilds should see the bulk of the carries, Williams should also see a material role. We recommend having exposure to Wilds, despite his relatively high price, and project him to put up the third most DraftKings points amongst running backs in this slate.
Pharoh Cooper – 8,100
Analysis: Pharoh Cooper had an amazing 2014 and South Carolina works to get him involved as many ways they can, whether it be via running or passing plays. Cooper caught 69 balls for 1,136 yards and nine scores, rushed 27 times for 200 yards and two touchdowns, and even completed five passes for 78 yards and two touchdowns. While you could view the inexperience at quarterback as something that could negatively impact the team’s top receiver, we’re expecting that Coach Spurrier look for even more ways to get Cooper involved this season. Whether it be through screens, wildcat snaps, or trick plays, Cooper will be seeing the ball frequently as a means of taking pressure off of Connor Mitch.
Recommendation: Pharoh Cooper is the highest priced receiver in this slate. While he will need to have a huge game to justify this price, the shear amount of targets he should receive should give him a high floor, especially against this soft defense.
Florida International at Central Florida
Kickoff: 6:00 PM EST
Spread: Central Florida -16.5
O/U: 46
Florida International
Expected Team Total Points: 14.75
Jonnu Smith – 4,200
Analysis: Jonnu Smith is clearly the top target in the FIU passing game, producing a line of 61/710/8 in 2014 as a sophomore. The team splits him out wide regularly and Smith caught 38 more passes than any other player on the team last season. Simply put, he is clearly the top option in the passing game, regardless of his status as a tight end. With FIU expected to be playing from behind in this contest, they’ll be throwing out of necessity and Smith will be heavily involved.
Recommendation: Even with the elimination of the tight end spot on DraftKings, Jonnu Smith remains intriguing. Smith offers a much higher floor than similarly priced wide receiver eligible players and we anticipate that he may have a low ownership percentage, as a result of people dismissing him due to his tight end designation.
Central Florida
Expected Team Total Points: 31.25
Justin Holman – 6,500
Analysis: With UCF losing their top four leading receivers from 2014, much is unknown about who will be catching passes this fall. Justin Holman was very inconsistent last year, even with a great group of receivers, and the team will likely be more reliant on the run game in 2015.
Recommendation: UCF should not be expected to pass as much as last year and Holman is far too expensive to be considered a punt play. Against this weaker opponent, he could put up a big game, but it’s far more likely that the team just leans on the running game.
William Stanback – 6,600
Analysis: A lot was expected of Williams Stanback in 2014, and while he largely disappointed, he was also hampered by injuries throughout the season. Stanback also missed the spring game this year with a leg injury, but is said to be healthy and should function as the feature back in this offense. UCF loses its top four receiving options from 2014, making it even more likely that they’ll need Stanback to shine behind an offensive line that returns three starters. Florida International gave up big days every time that they faced an FBS team that featured a workhorse back in 2014, with Jordan Howard, Devon Johnson, Ray Lawry, and James Conner all going over 100 yards. With UCF expected to be comfortably ahead in this game, it would be surprising if Stanback saw less than 20 carries.
Recommendation: Volume will likely be there and Stanback should be a safe play. He has not shown himself to be an explosive option and lacks the upside of other running backs in this slate, though game flow, tempo, and system are all on his side though, and we feel comfortable using him in cash games.
Oklahoma State at Central Michigan
Kickoff: 7:00 PM EST
Spread: Oklahoma State -23
O/U: 54.5
Oklahoma State
Expected Team Total Points: 38.75
Mason Rudolph – 8,100
Analysis: Oklahoma State has the second highest team total in this slate, projected to score 39 points. Mason Rudolph will likely have success throwing the football, but is a zero in the run game and may cede red zone work to his backup J.W. Walsh. While it’s safe to lock Rudolph in for close to 300 yards and at least a couple of scores, giving him a nice floor, his ceiling is not as high as other quarterbacks in this slate.
Recommendation: For the reasons stated above, we see Rudolph as more of a cash game play in this matchup, but it is best to avoid him in GPPs. It’s very difficult to envision him struggling to put up fantasy points against Central Michigan.
Chris Carson – 6,200
Analysis: Chris Carson was named the starting running back over Rennie Childs with the release of Oklahoma State’s most recent depth chart. Carson is a very highly touted JUCO transfer and should be the most talented and productive running back that Oklahoma State has had in recent years. While Coach Mike Gundy has stated a desire to get Carson and Childs each “about 15 carries” against Central Michigan, this could just be coach-speak. That statement though was not exactly what we were hoping to hear.
Recommendation: While the information of Carson being named the starting running back was not made public until after the pricing was released, Carson’s price does not represent any sort of discount. As a result of his price (6,200) and the potential workload concerns, it would be smart to limit your overall exposure. There just appear to be more sure things at running back that are priced similarly.
Brandon Sheperd – 6,000 James Washington – 4,500
Analysis: Brandon Sheperd should function as Rudolph’s top target in 2015. Sheperd clearly established himself as Rudolph’s go-to receiver over the last two games of 2014, hauling in 12 passes for 254 yards and three scores in that span, and that connection should continue into this season. One thing to note is that Sheperd has recently dealt with a dislocated finger but is expected to be good to go on Thursday.
Recommendation: Although he is not priced cheaply, assuming he is given a clean bill of health in advance of kick off, we recommend using Sheperd in tournament lineups. There will some lineups where you will want to go cheap at receiver, and won’t be including him, but assuming the connection with Rudolph carries over from last season, it is easy to imagine him having a fine day. James Washington was a true deep threat as a freshman, scoring six touchdowns on only 28 catches while amassing 456 yards. He’s received a ton of hype this offseason and in addition to his potential for a huge blow-up game, he is priced very cheaply. The potential is also there, however, for him to be minimally productive, as he was in so many games last season, so he’s best reserved for GPP lineups.
Central Michigan
Expected Team Total Points: 15.75
Cooper Rush – 5,200
Analysis: We feel that Cooper Rush is getting too much love following his huge performance in the Bahamas Bowl last season. If we take out that game, in which Rush threw for 493 yards and seven touchdowns, he only averaged 222 yards passing and 1.67 scores per game. He did not break the 300 yard passing threshold in any other game in 2014. And that was with Titus Davis, his clear top target, who is now gone.
Recommendation: We won’t be using Rush in any sort of format this week, as he should be viewed as a play with very limited upside and a low floor.
Western Kentucky at Vanderbilt
Kickoff: 8:00 PM EST
Spread: Even
O/U: 68
Western Kentucky
Expected Team Total Points: 34
Brandon Doughty – 9,000
Analysis: While Brandon Doughty is a top quarterback play this Thursday, working against Doughty is that Vanderbilt will be dead set on playing a very slow tempo, as they played at the 13th slowest pace in the FBS last year. This is also a defense that returns nine starters, though they were less than stellar as a unit in 2014. That being said, we’ still very high on Doughty. Last year, Old Dominion, who run system similar to Western Kentucky, played at Vanderbilt, and quarterback Taylor Heinicke threw for 291 yards and two touchdowns. We believe that a similar output should be viewed as the floor for Doughty. The Western Kentucky offense is a good deal more efficient than Old Dominion’s and Doughty is a better quarterback than Heinicke.
Recommendation: We definitely recommend having exposure to Doughty this week. The worst case scenario for Western Kentucky should be that this is a close game, while the possibility also exists that WKU completely blows out Vanderbilt. We really don’t see it as a realistic outcome that WKU gets blown out, and while the tempo of this game may slightly limit Doughty’s ceiling, 300 yards and a couple of scores is a realistic floor for him.
Leon Allen – 9,200
Analysis: Leon Allen ran into legal trouble this offseason and while no suspension has been announced, we’ll want to follow closely on game day to make sure he dresses. Allen’s backup, Anthony Wales, has already been ruled out, so the heavily utilized Allen could be in for an even bigger day, barely coming off the field when WKU has the ball. Western Kentucky can beat you any number of different ways and while Allen will be key part of the offense, it is tough to envision this being a game in which he gets close to the 30 carries that he generally needed in order to have huge games last season.
Recommendation: With the bevy of solid, more moderately priced running back options in this slate, many of which also project to be playing from comfortably ahead, it’s exceedingly difficult to effectively work Allen into lineups. He will need to have a great day to hit value, and needs to be considered a GPP play.
Jared Dangerfield – 5,900 Taywan Taylor – 4,800 Antwane Grant – 3,700 Nicholas Norris – 3,300 Nacarius Fant – 3,300 Tyler Higbee – 3,100
Analysis: Jared Dangerfield is Western Kentucky’s top receiver heading into 2015. Last season, WKU spread the ball around to a large group of receivers, capping the reliable output of any one pass catcher. Even though Dangerfield is the top receiving option in this offense, he doesn’t have the upside of other teams’ number one receivers, as a result of the fairly equitable distribution of targets. It is very important to note that Dangerfield has not practiced in two weeks, with an undisclosed injury, and this is definitely a situation to monitor leading up to kickoff. If Dangerfield were to be ruled out, WKU’s other receivers would become far more interesting options.
Recommendation: If all of the Western Kentucky receivers suit up, it becomes very difficult to play any of them, and feel confident that that receiver puts up a usable line. If Dangerfield were to be ruled out, you could look to work Nicholas Norris and Nacarius Fant into lineups, as they are both very cheap. Norris is listed as the team’s starting slot receiver and Fant would take over Dangerfield’s starting role. Higbee is also intriguing because of his very cheap price and likely sizable role in the passing game, even though DraftKings doesn’t require that you play a tight end. Also, while WKU will likely rotate which receivers are on and off the field, with the lack of depth at the tight end position, Higbee figures to stay in play for virtually every snap. Grant and Taylor are known names from last season, and while they are slotted to share one spot on the depth chart, they’ll both undoubtedly see plenty of game action. We don’t confidently recommend either of them, though they’re cheap enough to throw into tournament lineups if you want to load up on this game.
Vanderbilt
Expected Team Total Points: 34
Ralph Webb – 6,500
Analysis: The only way we really see Ralph Webb being slowed down is if game flow forces Vanderbilt to abandon the run. There are numerous factors working in Webb’s favor. Western Kentucky boasted the 13th worst run defense in 2014. Vanderbilt’s new offensive coordinator, Andy Ludwig, previously worked as OC at Wisconsin where he consistently boasted a nationally top ranked rushing attack. Ludwig has already stated that he’ll be installing an “tailback driven offense." Even though Vanderbilt recently lost their starting left tackle for the season, they still return three starting linemen. Vanderbilt has yet to name a starting quarterback, will not do so in advance of kickoff, and the team has lost its leading receiver, C.J. Duncan, for the season. Webb will be the focal point of this offense.
Recommendation: Ralph Webb is one of our favorite plays at running back this week. It is very likely that Webb runs for at least 100 yards and he makes sense in both cash and tournament lineups, due to his sizable role in the offense and potential for a huge game.
Steven Scheu – 3,200
Analysis: As much as Vanderbilt will try and run the ball on Thursday, they will throw at times, and Scheu should be the number one target of whoever is named starting quarterback. C.J. Duncan, the team’s top returning wide receiver has been ruled out for the year with injury, and while Scheu was already set to see plenty of targets, he should only see more as a result.
Recommendation: Scheu is the top target on a team playing in the game with the highest over/under in this slate. Even though no tight end is required on DraftKings, the projected value is so great that he makes a great cheap target.
Michigan at Utah
Kickoff: 8:00 PM EST
Spread: Utah -5.5
O/U: 46
Michigan
Expected Team Total Points: 20.25
Jake Rudock – 5,800 Ty Isaac – 4,900 De’veon Smith – 4,500
Analysis: Not much is known about the Wolverines, as they’ve yet to name a starting quarterback and probably won’t be doing so before kickoff. It wouldn’t be surprising if Michigan played two quarterbacks and Coach Jim Harbaugh has already stated that three running backs will receive carries.
Recommendation: There is way too much uncertainty surrounding this program to confidently project a solid fantasy output from any one player. While it seems like Jake Rudock will be the starting quarterback and Ty Isaac may be the most talented running back, even though De’veon Smith has been named the starter, we don’t recommend rostering anyone from this team for the season opener.
Utah
Expected Team Total Points: 25.75
Devontae Booker – 8,300
Analysis: Devontae Booker will undoubtedly be the focal point of Utah’s game plan against Michigan, and it would be very surprising if he received less than 20 carries. However, Michigan had one of the best run defenses in the FBS last season, only allowing 118 yards per game. While Booker did not have a strong showing against Michigan when the two teams met last season, he was not yet entrenched as the team’s bell cow running back at that time. Even though a low yards-per-carry average can probably be expected from Booker, this game is likely going to be played at a very slow tempo, lending itself to Utah’s desire to lean heavily on Booker.
Recommendation: Booker is the third most expensive running back in this slate, priced at 8,300. While there is a very real chance that Michigan bottles up Booker, his workload can be counted on to be sizable. As a result, while he may not have the upside of other running backs in juicier matchups, he should be relied upon for a solid output.
Ohio at Idaho
Kickoff: 9:00 PM EST
Spread: Ohio -9
O/U: 55
Ohio
Expected Team Total Points: 32
Derrius Vick – 7,700 JD Sprague – 5,500
Analysis: Coach Frank Solich has already gone on record saying that both Derrius Vick and JD Sprague will play in the season opener, though Vick has been named the starter. Anyone who followed this team last season knows that the quarterback situation was a nightmare situation for fantasy players, with in-game rotation commonly occurring.
Recommendation: While we expect Ohio to have success against the Idaho defense, the fact that we know that a two quarterback system will be used makes both quarterbacks unplayable.
A.J. Ouelette – 6,400
Analysis: Idaho had the eighth worst run defense in the FBS in 2014, allowing over 245 yards per game. While Ouelette was hobbled for much of his freshman season with an ankle injury, he finished strong, averaging 125 yards per game over the school’s final three contests. Ohio returns 99 career starts on its offensive line, ninth most in the FBS, and even though the coaching staff has expressed a desire to ease Ouelette’s burden this season, even if he only gets 15-20 carries, he should be able to deliver a solid performance.
Recommendation: A.J. Ouelette is shaping up to be a great, safe play this week. There are always a lot of uncertainties going into week one, but we like Ouelette as a cash game play and have him as our top projected running back for this slate.
Idaho
Matt Linehan – 4,400
Expected Team Total Points: 23
Analysis: While Matt Linehan’s numbers last year were relatively poor, he also was not throwing to Dezmon Epps, who was kicked off the team in 2014, after a great 2013 campaign. Additionally, Idaho averaged the 14th most pass attempts per game in the FBS last season and Ohio had the 105th ranked pass defense. Linehan has not yet been officially named the starting quarterback, but the local beat writers fully expect that he will be the guy on Thursday.
Recommendation: Matt Linehan is the cheapest priced quarterback in this slate and lets you work other solid players into your lineup as a result. We recommend using him in cash games as well as tournaments, and while it would be unrealistic to expect a superstar effort from Linehan, he should have no trouble hitting value.
Elijhaa Penny – 3,800
Analysis: Elijhaa Penny is the starting running back for Idaho and is a candidate to receive twenty carries, as this situation in no way appears to be a timeshare. Game flow is certainly a legitimate concern, as Idaho could fall behind early, but Penny should remain on the field, regardless, and will be receiving carries as long as the run game is not completely abandoned.
Recommendation: Penny is a true feature back priced below 4,000. Even though there is a realistic possibility that Idaho falls behind early, if you are looking for a cheap option at running back, Penny is the one with the most secure role in his team’s offense.
Dezmon Epps – 3,200
Analysis: Dezmon Epps was Idaho’s leading receiver in 2013, accumulating close to 1,000 yards, but was kicked off the team in 2014. He was reinstated this summer, found trouble again with the law, but there has been no word of a suspension. He also missed time early in camp with a leg injury but has been practicing lately, and has been described as “playing with a different gear than everyone else and being open on nearly every play” in practice by a local beat writer. While practice is of course different than doing it in actual games, it is good to see that Epps is resembling the effective receiver that he was in 2013, and he should be ready to make an instant impact in this offense.
Recommendation: DraftKings has priced all of the Idaho options very affordably, but Epps is probably the most egregiously underpriced. At 3,200, it is very difficult to find cause not to play him.
TCU at Minnesota
Kickoff: 9:00 PM EST
Spread: TCU -14.5
O/U: 57.5
TCU
Expected Team Total Points: 36
Trevone Boykin – 10,300
Analysis: Boykin is arguably the best fantasy football quarterback in the entire FBS and a frontrunner for the Heisman coming into 2015. Minnesota returns seven starters, including three defensive backs from a defense that ranked 33rd in yards allowed per game in 2014. Last year, in games against Texas, West Virginia, Ole Miss, Minnesota, and Kansas State – the five toughest passing defenses he faced - Boykin failed to throw for over 260 yards in each. Fortunately, he ran for 5 scores in these games to buoy his fantasy outputs, highlighting that even when he is not lighting it up with his arm, he can still produce serviceable games.
Recommendation: While over the course of the season Boykin will likely be one of the top quarterbacks in the nation, it’s tough to see this as an ideal matchup for him. His price is exorbitant and there is substantial risk that he does not hit value. He will likely have low ownership and we’re considering him a GPP play.
Aaron Green – 6,900
Analysis: Aaron Green was one of the best running backs in the country in the second half of last season, amassing 992 rushing yards even though he only started five games. Green enters this season as the favorite to see the majority of carries, but this will be a system that uses multiple backs. Even though that is the case, Green does not need to see 20+ touches in order to make an impact. Though Green did not receive 20 carries in any game last season, he totaled eight touchdowns in the final five games, while rushing for greater than 100 yards in three of them. The matchup is also nice, as TCU returns four starting linemen and Minnesota gave up huge rushing games down the stretch last season to spread teams Missouri and Ohio State.
Recommendation: Aaron Green was extremely reliable in a starting role last season and we expect a solid game in week one against Minnesota. His likely limited touches have him ranked behind other true feature backs, but his upside as someone who does not need significant touches to generate a strong fantasy output warrants him being included in some of your lineups.
Kolby Listenbee – 4,700
Analysis: With the news that Deante’ Gray will not be playing against Minnesota, Kolby Listenbee should be in line for more targets than usual. Listenbee caught 41 passes for 753 yards in 2014 despite being hobbled with an ankle injury for much of the second half of the season. He has track star speed and, as evidenced by his 18.4 yards per catch average in 2014, can turn every play into a big play. He should be the clear number two target in the passing game for Trevone Boykin on Thursday.
Recommendation: Listenbee’s cheap price tag will make him a popular target in this slate. He almost certainly would have been priced higher if the news about Gray had come out before DraftKings pricing was finalized. While his game innately has risk in it, he only caught five or more passes on two occasions in 2014, he has a very high ceiling this week.
Josh Doctson – 7,200
Analysis: Josh Doctson is Boykin’s clear number one target and, much like Listenbee, should also see an uptick in targets with Gray ruled out. Doctson broke his hand this spring and then dealt with an undisclosed injury leading up to game day. Gary Patterson has stated that he expects Doctson to start Thursday, but this is still a situation to monitor leading up to kickoff. Doctson scored two touchdowns against Minnesota last season and even though the Gophers return two Second Team All-Big Ten defensive backs, you can be sure that Boykin will feel confident feeding Doctson jump balls, as he was willing to do so in tough matchups throughout 2014.
Recommendation: Doctson’s ability to score touchdowns gives him as high upside as any receiver in this slate. He is not priced cheaply at 7,200 and will have to have a big game to deliver value. He makes the most sense as a tournament play.
Minnesota
Expected Team Total Points: 21.5
Rodrick Williams Jr – 5,100
Analysis: Williams has been named the starting running back for Minnesota and while it is possible that he takes on a David Cobb level workload, that’s far from a certainty at this point. The talk has definitely been positive from players, coaches, and beat writers about Williams this summer and also working in his favor is that Minnesota returns three offensive linemen. Coach Jerry Kill also stated that the team will not be using any “no-huddle” this season, further emphasizing the belief that Minnesota will be running an offense with a very slow tempo, focused on the run game. TCU represents a tough test, returning three starters from a defensive line that allowed the 13th least rush yards per game in 2014. Also working against Williams is that this TCU, as a 14.5 point favorites, could very easily go up early and force Minnesota to throw more than they would like.
Recommendation: Williams’ price is reasonable at 5,100 but we see too many uncertainties to play him in cash games. Throwing him in a GPP lineup or two makes more sense, as Minnesota will absolutely look to establish the run game.
Duke at Tulane
Kickoff: 9:30 PM EST
Spread: Duke – 10
O/U: 47.5
Duke
Expected Team Total Points: 28.75
Thomas Sirk – 6,000
Analysis: This will be Sirk’s first year as a starter but he has plenty of experience in short yardage and goal line roles from previous seasons. Ideally, we would see that skillset translate into his role as a starter and he would be a true duel threat, but Duke Coach Dave Cutcliffe has already hinted that two quarterbacks could be used, with backup Parker Boehme being utilized in the same way Sirk was in 2014. Sirk has only attempted 14 career passes, so there’s not much track record to go on in terms of his arm. Additionally, Duke’s top two receivers from a season ago are also gone, adding more uncertainty to the passing game. Tulane got beat badly in each of its three matchups against Power Five teams last season against Rutgers, Duke, and Georgia Tech, giving up an average of 419 yards and 39 points in those contests.
Recommendation: Sirk is not exorbitantly priced on DraftKings but because of the uncertainty of his role in this offense, and how the offense as a whole will look, he’s not recommended for cash games. Working him into GPP lineups makes more sense, as it’s very possible he could blow up for a big game if given the opportunity to utilize his legs.
Shaquille Powell – 4,700
Analysis: Shaquille Powell was the team’s leading rusher in 2014 with 618 yards on the ground, and received 29 carries in the school’s bowl game, turning them into 117 yards. Duke traditionally rotates multiple backs, rendering all of them unplayable. Heading into 2015 however, Jela Duncan has been ruled out for an extended period of time and Shaun Wilson has been banged up, and did not participate in the team’s most recent scrimmage, though it’s sounding like he returned to practice earlier this week. Running back depth has been such a concern at Duke heading up to the season opener that the third string quarterback has been moved to running back.
Recommendation: Powell is reasonably priced at 4,700 and even if Shaun Wilson suits up Thursday, we would still recommend using Powell. Whereas in the past Duke was a pass first team, while we do not know for certain how the offense will be run this season, it would make sense for the Blue Devils to be much more ground oriented in 2015.
Tulane
Expected Team Total Points: 18.75
Sherman Badie – 4,200
Analysis: Badie began 2014 with a bang, rushing for 215 yards in his first ever collegiate game. After a few more solid showings in the early part of the season, Badie was hobbled by a high ankle sprain that though he tried to play through, severely limited his productivity during the remainder of the year. He is expected to split carries in 2015 with at least two other running backs, but Badie is also working out wide in three wide receiver sets, potentially giving him more paths to touches. Duke’s run defense was prone to giving up big days last season and returns only one starting defensive lineman, while Tulane returns four starters on its offensive line.
Recommendation: There is definitely material risk associated with playing Badie, as he is in a true committee approach at running back. His low price and potential to put up a solid PPR scoring line, however, make him worth considering as a GPP play.
UTSA at Arizona
Kickoff: 10:00 PM EST
Spread: Arizona – 31.5
O/U: 52.5
Expected Team Total Points: 41
Anu Solomon – 9,200
Analysis: Solomon played very well as a redshirt freshman, putting up some huge fantasy lines, most of which came prior to an ankle injury which limited him in the second half of the season. Solomon does not have game breaking rushing ability, but moves effectively and should improve as a passer in his second year as a starter. While he struggled in last year’s meeting with UTSA, this year’s Roadrunners team only returns three defensive starters in what projects to be a rebuilding year.
Recommendation: There’s a strong chance that this game gets out of hand quickly, but that should largely have to do with Solomon leading the team on successful scoring drives. It’s entirely possible that the team leans on the running game and limits Solomon’s production as a result, but we see him as someone with a high floor this week. He should have no trouble for throwing for over 300 yards and he is someone to utilize in cash game lineups.
Nick Wilson – 9,000
Analysis: Nick Wilson operated as a true feature back in Rich Rodriguez’s offense for much of last season, with only concussion and ankle injuries really being able to slow him down. In the three non-conference matchups Arizona faced last season, Wilson went for at least 100 yards and a touchdown in each of them. This year, UTSA returns zero starting defensive linemen from 2014 and this projects as a plus matchup.
Recommendation: The same concerns that apply for Solomon also apply for Wilson. This game could get ugly very quickly and it seems unlikely that the starters play into the fourth quarter. That being said, Wilson should be a lock for a solid line. The blowout potential also brings relevancy to minimum priced, back-up running back Jared Baker, but only as a GPP play.
Cayleb Jones – 6,100
Analysis: Cayleb Jones started last season with a string of monster games, but tailed off leading up to the school’s bowl game, when he returned to form, with his fourth 100 yard game of the season. This pattern is very similar to Anu Solomon’s season and while Solomon suffered through an ankle injury, Jones was dealing with a hand injury. Fully healthy now, Jones should have no trouble taking advantage of what should be a very weak UTSA defense.
Recommendation: Jones should be a very safe play this week. While he is the third most expensive receiver in this slate, 6,100 is not impeding for someone who should have no problem clearing 100 yards.
UTSA
Expected Team Total Points: 11.5
UTSA has the lowest team total of any team in this slate. It’s very likely that they will struggle mightily to move the ball at all and we don’t recommend rostering any players from this team.