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Details:
- Entry Deadline (First Game Kickoff): 11-12-15, 7:30 PM EST
- Number of games in slate: 3 games
Louisiana Lafayette at South Alabama
Kickoff: 11-12-15, 7:30 PM EST
Spread: South Alabama -3
O/U: 61
Louisiana Lafayette
Expected Team Total Points: 29
RB Elijah McGuire – 7,600
Analysis: Elijah McGuire has largely failed to build on his 2014 success, only surpassing the 100 yard mark on two occasions this season. The running game has really struggled of late, with only quarterback Jalen Nixon finding real success on the ground. Coach Mark Hudspeth talked this week about how the team needs to get both McGuire and the running game in general going. The cure for what ills the Rajun Cajuns potentially comes in the form of the South Alabama defense, who have over their last three games have allowed an average of 241 yards rushing.
Recommendation: Especially in PPR format, McGuire is shaping up as a very tough fade this week. Though he’s struggled this season, the matchup is as good as could be hoped for. He’s a player to build around in this slate.
WR Jamal Robinson – 4,300
Analysis: Robinson has scored three times in the last three games that he has suited up in. He’s averaging 6.6 targets per game, though his production hasn’t been overly reliable with Louisiana Lafayette juggling quarterbacks throughout the season. Brooks Haack, the quarterback with the better passing ability, is expected to start this week, and though both quarterbacks will play, that bodes well for the team’s best receiver.
Recommendation: If you are looking for a cheaper receiver that doesn’t have a rock bottom floor and has decent upside, Robinson is someone you should consider. The Louisiana Lafayette passing game hasn’t been great this season, but Robinson at least sees consistent targets.
South Alabama
Expected Team Total Points: 32
Cody Clements (5,100) is looking like a great punt at quarterback in this slate. Though he hasn’t hit 200 yards passing in either of his last two games - that should change this week. Louisiana Lafayette has allowed an average of 277 passing yards in its past two games, and has given up six passing touchdowns in that span. His top receiving target, Gerald Everett (4,200), also looks like a viable option this week. Everett has managed to score double digit fantasy points in each of his last six games – largely because he is not only a red zone target as a receiver, but he also receives goal line carries.
Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech
Kickoff: 11-12-15, 7:30 PM EST
Spread: Georgia Tech -3.5
O/U: 53.5
Virginia Tech
Expected Team Total Points: 25
RB Travon McMillian – 7,500
Analysis: Since getting his first start against NC State a month ago, McMillian has done nothing but impress – rushing for at least 96 yards in each of those four games. The most commendable effort came in Virginia Tech’s last game against Boston College’s FBS best run defense when McMillian rushed for 105 yards on 33 carries. This week’s matchup against Georgia Tech is much softer – the Yellow Jackets are allowing 172 yards per game via the ground.
Recommendation: McMillian is a good bet to hit 100 yards and has a good shot to hit value, but we prefer Ronald Jones and Elijah McGuire if forced to pick between the top tier running backs.
WR Isaiah Ford – 4,800
Analysis: Isaiah Ford has averaged nine targets per game this season, good for second most in the ACC. Though he hasn’t exploded for many big games, Ford has recorded at least 50 receiving yards in all but two games this season. With Michael Brewer back at quarterback, the passing game at Virginia Tech, the passing game is far more reliable week to week than it was while Brenden Motley was filling in.
Recommendation: Ford has a fairly high floor, and while we wouldn’t build around him, he is the best receiver in his price range.
Georgia Tech
Expected Team Total Points: 28.5
WR Ricky Jeune – 4,100
Analysis: Jeune has filled the role of the quintessential tall, deep ball catching Georgia Tech receiver. It’s a title rich in tradition held previously by known commodities such as Demaryius Thomas, Stephen Hill, Darren Waller, and DeAndre Smelter. It’s taken some time to get Jeune going, as he only caught one pass in each of the first two games of 2015. He’s now up to 20 grabs, 422 yards, and three touchdowns on the year - averaging over 21 yards per catch – and turned in his best performance of the year in the Yellow Jackets’ last game, hauling in five passes for 103 yards.
Recommendation: The 6’3” 214 pound Jeune is undoubtedly a risky target playing in an option offense, but he is essentially the team’s only true deep threat. At 4,100, he offers affordable upside in tournaments.
USC at Colorado
Kickoff: 11-13-15, 9:00 PM EST
Spread: USC -16.5
O/U: 61.5
USC
Expected Team Total Points: 39
QB Cody Kessler – 8,200
Analysis: Kessler has seen his statistical output regress amidst the turmoil at USC this season. In three games since a solid effort against Notre Dame - in which USC had to throw often in an attempt to come back - Kessler has only averaged 231 yards passing, and has only thrown three total touchdowns in that span. He’s also ran for -47 yards in that time, though he’s never been known for being fleet of feet. USC has certainly been banged up at receiver, with tertiary receivers Darreus Rogers and Steven Mitchell missing time with injury, and Juju Smith playing through a broken hand, and the team has become increasingly reliant on their running game of late. 58% of the Trojans’ yards have come via the air in the last three games versus 66% in the first six games.
Recommendation: Kessler has disappointed three straight weeks, largely due to USC’s gameplan – and we expect the Trojans to continue to rely heavily on the running game this week. We don’t feel that Kessler is a great bet to hit value, and he’s best utilized in tournaments.
RB Ronald Jones – 5,900
Analysis: It’s been evident all year that Jones is very talented, rushing for 593 yards and seven touchdowns on only 70 carries in the first seven games of the year. Then, this past weekend against Arizona, Jones finally saw more than 15 carries for the first time all season. The result was a true breakout, as the freshman rushed for 177 yards and a touchdown. Following that outburst, when USC released its depth chart for this week’s game, Jones was listed as ‘co-starter’ at running back with Justin Davis and Tre Madden, while he’d previously been labeled a reserve. Wednesday, news broke that Madden will miss this week’s game, leaving only Justin Davis as a threat to cut into Jones’s workload. The Colorado defense has allowed a 100 yard rusher in each of its last four games.
Recommendation: Jones is a chalk play at 5,900.
WR Juju Smith-Schuster – 7,600
Analysis: Juju Smith-Schuster has accounted for 40 percent of USC’s receiving yards this season, and that number jumps to 48 percent if we consider only the past three games. Incredibly, Smith-Schuster broke his hand on Halloween against Cal, but played this past week against Arizona. He said he felt “a lot” of pain during the game, but you wouldn’t know from his stat line of eight catches for 138 yards and a touchdown. This week at practice, Smith-Schuster has been running routes, but has not been catching passes – though his plan is to do so on Thursday, and he’s fully planning on playing Friday.
Recommendation: We feel that Smith-Schuster is best suited for GPP lineups this week. There’s a real chance he could re-injure his hand, or just decide that he can no longer play through the pain – and his salary really limits your ability to roster the top flight running back talent that’s available in this slate.
Colorado
Expected Team Total Points: 22.5
QB Sefo Liufau – 6,300
Analysis: Sefo Liufau hasn’t been as statistically prolific in 2015 as he was last year, as Colorado has been far more balanced this season – averaging 183 yards rushing in 2015 versus only 155 yards in 2014. Liufau has thrown for over 300 yards three times in Colorado’s last five games – with all three of those efforts coming in games in which Colorado fell behind and had to throw often in an attempt to come back. USC hasn’t allowed a team to run for more than 120 yards in any of its last three games, but has allowed at least 250 yards passing, and two touchdown through the air, in each of those games.
Recommendation: We like Liufau a lot this week. Colorado is a 16.5 point underdog and should be forced to throw often on Friday. He’s a good bet to throw for 300 yards, and should add some value on the ground, as he’s averaging 25.6 yards rushing per game in 2015. At 6,300, he’s a fine value this week.
WR Nelson Spruce – 5,900
Analysis: Spruce has been incredibly reliable for Colorado this season, catching at least 5 passes and totaling over 60 yards in every game so far. Spruce’s shortcoming, however, has been that he’s only scored two touchdowns in 2015, after reaching pay dirt 12 times last year. Colorado’s other top receiver, Shay Fields, had to leave last week’s game due to a nagging high-ankle sprain. He’s questionable to play this week and quarterback Sefo Liufau has stated “I’m pretty sure he’ll be back (this week). I've seen him out there practicing."
Recommendation: Especially in PPR format, Spruce is a fine value at 5,900 and is a great cash game option. If we were to get word of Shay Fields suiting up prior to kickoff, he’d be a great late swap candidate at only 4,500.
