Details:
- Entry Deadline (First Game Kickoff): 12-31-15, 12:00 PM EST
- Number of games in slate: 8 games
Houston vs. Florida State
Kickoff: 12-31-15, 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Florida State -7
O/U: 55.5
Houston
Expected Team Total Points: 24.25
Analysis: Houston boasts one of the most exciting and unique offenses in the country, but they are facing a very difficult test in Florida State. The Seminoles have yet to allow any opponent to score 25 points this season – a telling statistic considering that their schedule included top ranked Clemson. Houston comes into bowl season much healthier than they were when they last played. QB Greg Ward Jr (7,700) has had close to a month to heal up from an ankle injury that had been hobbling him down the stretch. RB Kenneth Farrow (5,100) is expected to regain his starting running back role after missing two games with an ankle injury. WR Demarcus Ayers (5,500) suffered a shoulder injury in Houston’s last game, but he’s good to go for the Peach Bowl.
Recommendation: Florida State’s two losses this season were to Georgia Tech (option offense) and Clemson (spread offense.) Houston represents something of a blend of the two. We feel that the Cougars’ offense could give Florida State problems and make this game close, but none of Houston’s skill players are shaping up as trustworthy cash game options. Demarcus Ayers will be matching up with All-American cornerback Jalen Ramsey, making it unlikely that he have a significant impact. Ward and Farrow have significant upside as the focal points of this fast-paced, run-heavy offense, and are in play for tournament lineups.
Florida State
Expected Team Total Points: 31.25
Analysis: Even though Houston is coming into this game allowing only 116 rush yards per game, we’re largely disregarding that impressive statistic in favor of placing confidence in the ability that RB Dalvin Cook (8,800) has shown to run over quality defenses all season. For context, in games against Clemson, Florida, and Louisville – teams that allowed an average of 128.8, 120.6, and 118.8 yards rushing per game, respectively – Cook ran for 194, 183, and 163 yards, or an average of 180 yards per game. Simply put, he’s as matchup proof as you can get when it comes to running backs. WR Travis Rudolph (3,900) functions as Florida State’s most reliable receiver, seeing at least five targets in every game this season. Since QB Sean Maguire (5,600) took over at quarterback with five games to play, Rudolph has scored three touchdowns, but all came in one game (against Syracuse). In that five game span, Rudolph is averaging 4.4 grabs for 81 yards – but those averages are heavily influenced by his 191 yard outburst against Syracuse.
Recommendation: Dalvin Cook is one of the premier running back options and we like him in both cash games and tournaments in this slate. None of the Florida State receivers are particularly enticing choices, but Travis Rudolph’s fairly reliable allocation of targets makes him usable as a cheaper, sub-4k option.
Oklahoma vs. Clemson
Kickoff: 12-31-15, 4:00 PM EST
Spread: Oklahoma -3.5
O/U: 64
Oklahoma
Expected Team Total Points: 33.75
Analysis: Oklahoma boasts some of the highest priced options on the board in this slate. The backfield combination of RB Samaje Perine (7,300) and RB Joe Mixon (5,200) have been on a tear of late, with Perine leading the way running for over 100 yards in three straight games. Clemson offers a stiff test, having allowed only two 100 yard rushing games to running backs this season. QB Baker Mayfield (8,500) had a tremendous season, but saw his statistical output decline late in the year as the team shifted its gameplan more towards the ground game, and eased the burden from Mayfield’s arm. Clemson enters this game only allowing 166.9 pass yards per game, and while UNC’s Marquise Williams showed in Clemson’s most recent game that this defense can be beaten, a large part of his statistical success came late in the final quarter after the outcome had been decided, after he had struggled for much of the game. WR Sterling Shepard (6,800) has emerged as Oklahoma’s only reliable receiver in the second half of the year, seeing an average of 15 targets per game in the team’s last three games. Against Clemson, he will be squaring off with one of the top cornerbacks in the country, Mackensie Alexander. Last year when these two teams played, granted, with Trevor Knight at quarterback, in the Russell Athletic Bowl, Alexander held Shepard to a single catch for 13 yards.
Recommendation: Perine doesn’t measure up with the other top tier running backs this week. The tough matchup and likelihood that Mixon will syphon carries from him make Perine a less than desirable play. Mixon had value at times this season due to his immense talent and reasonable price, but at 5,200, he’s unplayable given his limited role in the offense. If Oklahoma is going to reach their Team Total of roughly 34 points, we feel that it will largely be due to Mayfield finding success. Still, he will be facing by far the toughest defense he’s seen all year, making him a GPP only play at his heightened price. Rostering Shepard in cash games is equally unadvisable as he’s going up against a very talented secondary and is the most expensive receiver in this slate. We feel that it’s unlikely that he delivers value in this matchup.
Clemson
Expected Team Total Points: 30.25
Analysis: QB Deshaun Watson (8,600) has been on a rampage of late, averaging 44.64 fantasy points in his last four games. In the biggest game of the year for his team, we fully expect Clemson to rely heavily on their Heisman Finalist. While RB Wayne Gallman (5,500) is nicely priced at 5,500, expecting an effort even close to his 255 yard, two touchdown output against UNC is probably unwise. As we saw on Tuesday night, when Baylor ran for over 600 yards against the Tar Heels, UNC’s run defense is one of the worst in the country and it made sense for Clemson to ride Gallman in that matchup. Clemson announced on Tuesday night that WR Deon Cain (5,000) was sent home and will not play on New Year’s Eve. Cain was Clemson’s primary deep threat and the team doesn’t have a clear cut replacement for his role. WR Ray Ray McCloud (3,300) will undoubtedly see his playing time rise, but he lacks Cain’s size and likely won’t occupy the same role. We now expect Clemson to rely even more on the short passing game, and as a consequence place more of a burden on WR Artavis Scott (5,800). Scott had his knee scoped following the team’s victory in the ACC Championship game against UNC, but has been practicing in full leading up to the Orange Bowl.
Recommendation: We aren’t overly worried about Oklahoma’s statistically solid defense containing Watson. Oklahoma State quarterback, J.W. Walsh shredded Oklahoma the last time the Sooners took the field for 325 pass yards and 50 rush yards (28 fantasy points). Needless to say, Walsh’s tools pale in comparison to Watson. Oklahoma didn’t have to face Trevone Boykin or Seth Russell this year, so it’s difficult to project how a truly elite quarterback like Watson might perform against Oklahoma. In this all-important game though, we like Watson to approach both the 300 and 100 yard bonus thresholds, as Clemson will undoubtedly place the game in the hands of their superstar. Even at his expensive price, Watson should be considered for rosters in both cash games and tournaments. In light of the difficult matchups so many quarterbacks in this slate face, the high floor that Watson offers makes him an elite play. Wayne Gallman should push for 100 yards as Clemson’s every down running back, but we don’t see his ceiling as being ideal for tournaments. He is a solid cash game option if you are looking to roster mid-tier running back(s). Artavis Scott makes for a nice cash option as well, as he’s very much aided by DraftKings’s PPR format. Assuming he encounters no knee setbacks, it would be very surprising to see him fail to hit 3x value, as he should push for double-digit grabs. Ray Ray McCloud carries serious risk, but with the suspension of Cain, he becomes one of the more appealing punts at wide receiver in this slate.
Michigan State vs. Alabama
Kickoff: 12-31-15, 8:00 PM EST
Spread: Alabama -9.5
O/U: 47
Michigan State
Expected Team Total Points: 18.75
Analysis: Despite the friendly pricing of Michigan State running backs RB LJ Scott (4,200) and RB Madre London (3,400), the Alabama defense represents the toughest test for opposing running backs in the country, allowing only 74 rush yards per game and only six rushing scores on the year. Scott was the hero of Michigan State’s win against Iowa, but it had previously appeared that he would seize the starting job two or three times during the season, only to see London and Gerald Holmes maintain material roles. Scott also had disciplinary issues that repeatedly landed him in Coach Mark D’Antonio’s dog house. WR Aaron Burbridge (6,100) was largely held in check by Iowa’s top cornerback Desmond King, only gaining 61 yards on five catches. The matchup with Alabama is similarly tough, as the Crimson Tide are only giving up 184.2 passing yards per game and have made numerous good quarterbacks look awful this season.
Recommendation: Even if LJ Scott was locked into a full time role, he’d still be facing an uphill battle to hit value against the tough Alabama run defense. The reality is though that Scott will likely still be splitting carries, for most of the game, with Michigan State’s other running backs. He’s a good bet for 15+ carries, but we don’t like his chances of turning that into 12+ fantasy points. If Michigan State is to win this game, it will likely be because they’ve found success via the aerial attack, with Burbridge playing a large role. For this reason, pairing QB Connor Cook (5,500) and Burbridge in a GPP could pay off handsomely if things go right for the Spartans, but the more likely scenario is that the Michigan State offense struggles as a whole against the top overall defense in the country.
Alabama
Expected Team Total Points: 28.25
Analysis: RB Derrick Henry (8,600) comes into this game having received 90 carries in his last two games. Though he faces a tough matchup in Michigan State which allows only 113.1 yards per game, he showed against Florida that he can still produce against a top defense, if only as a result of a massive workload, for which he should once again be ticketed for. WR Calvin Ridley (5,500) has been one of the more consistent receivers in the country this season, catching at least four passes in each of the last 12 games and going for at least 50 yards in all but one of Alabama’s last nine contests. The problem is that though Ridley is clearly the team’s number one receiver, and is exceptionally talented, Alabama runs the ball so much that Ridley rarely explodes for big games. Alabama has looked to feature him more in big games however, with Ridley averaging 3.75 catches per game in non-conference games and 6.66 grabs against SEC foes.
Recommendation: Though Henry should have no problem breaking the 100 yard barrier, as he’ll likely see around 30 carries, expecting a truly massive output isn’t wise given the matchup. He is a good bet to hit value via the bulk-carry route, and is fine for cash games, but he makes sense as a fade in tournaments. Calvin Ridley should also be considered a better option in cash games than tournaments, as he is likely to catch 5+ balls for 75+ yards, but lacks the upside of other receivers in this slate.
Northwestern vs. Tennessee
Kickoff: 1-1-16, 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Tennessee -8
O/U: 47.5
Northwestern
Expected Team Total Points: 19.75
Analysis: RB Justin Jackson (7,000) is the only Northwestern player worth giving roster consideration to in this slate. Jackson handles a truly monstrous workload, averaging just under 25 carries per game. He ran for 1,344 yards on 298 attempts this season, and the fact that he only had four rushing scores speaks to just how inept the rest of the offense is.
Recommendation: Jackson should be expected to see his usual 20+ carries against Tennessee, but it’s difficult to see him having the type of day that will have you in contention to win GPP’s. He’s a good bet to break 100 yards rushing, but at the price of 7,000, he would have to do far more than that in order to hit value. We prefer to pay the difference required to roster one of the 8,000+ running backs, as the expected Fantasy Point/dollar is far greater with options like Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry, and Ezekiel Elliot.
Tennessee
Expected Team Total Points: 27.75
Analysis: QB Joshua Dobbs (7,100) has played poorly in numerous difficult matchups this year, struggling mightily down the stretch against Missouri and Vanderbilt. He now faces a Northwestern defense that is allowing only 311 total yards per game (8th best in the FBS.) Northwestern’s run defense has been generally strong this year – only allowing 117.8 yards per game – but they were gashed by Iowa’s Akrum Wadley (204 yards on 26 carries) and Penn State’s Saquan Barkley (129 yards on 25 carries). Outside of those two games, the only time that Northwestern faced a potent rushing attack was the season opener at home against Stanford, in a game played at Noon EST (9 AM PST), during which the Wildcats managed to contain Christian McCaffrey, only allowing him to rush for 66 yards on 12 carries. Not too discredit Northwestern, but that game very much seems like an anomaly in hindsight. Coinciding with Dobbs’s late season struggles, Tennessee has increasingly relied on RB Jalen Hurd (6,000). Hurd rushed for 151 yards on 34 carries against Missouri and 120 yards on 19 carries against Vanderbilt. The Outback Bowl projects to be a closely contested affair, and there’s little doubt Tennessee will look to heavily involve Hurd. His backfield mate RB Alvin Kamara (5,400) is a very adept pass catcher, but has only seen double digit carries in three games this year, each of which were blowouts.
Recommendation: Dobbs’s running ability has him in play for tournaments, but we’d prefer similarly priced Chad Kelly in most scenarios (both cash and GPP). Jalen Hurd is one of the better values at running back in this slate. He should be locked in for 20 carries, and even in a tough matchup, we like his chances of hitting value. He makes more sense in cash games than tournaments, as Kamara and Dobbs will also get carries, preventing Hurd from threatening to have a truly huge day. Kamara was a solid punt option earlier in the year at a reduced price, but at 5,400, he would need to score at least once and have a big day catching the ball in order to be worth his price tag. He’s not one of our preferred options.
Michigan vs. Florida
Kickoff: 1-1-16, 1:00 PM EST
Spread: Michigan -4
O/U: 39
Michigan
Expected Team Total Points: 21.5
Analysis: The total for this game is 39 points, which says a lot about the overall expectation for these two offenses. While the Michigan offense is definitely the better of the two, the Wolverines have serious question marks heading into this game. QB Jake Rudock (5,000) injured his shoulder in the regular season finale against Ohio State, and though he’s been practicing, Rudock faces a Florida defense that is only allowing 176.8 pass yards per game. Though the Michigan run game was strong to start the year, it’s faltered in recent weeks. RB De’veon Smith (4,800) has dealt with injuries and has seen his workload decline with the injection of Jabrill Peppers into a material offensive role. Peppers’s status for the Citrus Bowl is uncertain as he has been spotted without pads in recent practices. Though Rudock shouldn’t be counted on for a big day, his receivers represent some of the better values in this slate. This can be attributed to the leanness of the Michigan passing game. After Chesson, Butt, and Amara Darboh (4,800), each of whom has at least 45 catches, the receiver with the next highest catch total is running back De’Veon Smith, with 18. WR Jehu Chesson (4,800) has come on very strong down the stretch for the Wolverines, catching 22 passes for 397 yards and five touchdowns in the team’s last three games. In that stretch, he’s seen at least ten targets in each game. WR Jake Butt (3,700) has also been on a good run of late, catching at least four passes in five straight games.
Recommendation: We’re not expecting big things from Rudock, as the solid performances that he’s turned in this season have generally come against the Big 10’s bottom feeders. At 3,700, Butt doesn’t have the upside of some riskier value plays, but he has a nice floor, having reached double digit fantasy points in four straight games. Jehu Chesson’s late season emergence didn’t go unnoticed internally, as he was recently named the ‘Bo Schembechler’ Team MVP. Both he and teammate Amara Darboh are very reasonably priced but go up against two of the best cornerbacks in the country in Vernon Hargreaves III and Jalen Tabor. Even though the recent track record of Chesson and Darboh suggests that they are high-floor plays, in this matchup we’re not looking at either in cash games.
Florida
Expected Team Total Points: 17.5
Analysis: Despite being priced at the minimum, QB Treon Harris (4,000) isn’t an attractive option, as he’s very unlikely to find any level of success against Michigan’s superb defense. Even if he hits value and puts up ~ 15 fantasy points, the opportunity cost of starting him at quarterback in place of top level talent is too great. This is especially the case in a slate like this one in which you need to lock in guaranteed points at quarterback, with so many quality defenses and bad matchups littered throughout. The lone Florida player that really intrigues us is WR Antonio Callaway (3,500). Calloway, just a freshman, is looking like an elite talent, averaging 20 yards per catch with four receiving scores and two punt return touchdowns on the year, but his statistical output has largely been stunted by Treon Harris’s inability to effectively throw the football.
Recommendation: Undoubtedly people will use Treon Harris as a means of accessing higher priced players at other positions, but we don’t recommend doing so, and feel that it’s likely that such a strategy will torpedo your lineup. While we have a lot of faith in Antonio Callaway’s ability, we have less trust in Harris’s ability to get Callaway the ball down the field. Callaway only needs a couple of big plays to hit value, and we feel that he’s one of the highest upside value receivers, but is used in tournaments.
Notre Dame vs. Ohio State
Kickoff: 1-1-16, 1:00 PM EST
Spread: Ohio State -6.5
O/U: 57
Notre Dame
Expected Team Total Points: 25.25
Analysis: QB Deshone Kizer (7,300) has a stiff challenge on tap against an Ohio State defense that is only allowing 304 total yards per game. Kizer, however, has had success against quality foes this year, putting up 34.16 fantasy points against Stanford and 43.26 fantasy points against Temple. His top running back RB CJ Prosise (6,800) has been recovering from an ankle injury, and though he’s improving, his role is uncertain. WR Will Fuller (6,700) has had a stellar overall season, but his production has been inconsisteny with Kizer at the helm, topping 100 yards three times in Notre Dame’s final nine games after starting the year with three straight 100 yard games. Fuller will likely see a lot of Ohio State cornerback Eli Apple, who has been one of the better defensive backs in America at taking away teams’ top targets.
Recommendation: We feel that Kizer is one of the better tournament options at quarterback in this slate. He could easily exceed value at his price tag, especially if he’s asked to take on more of the running workload if CJ Prosise is too banged up to see much time. If word were to come out that Prosise was not going to be able to suit up, his backup RB Josh Adams (6,200) would make for a great play in both cash games and tournaments. We’re only considering Will Fuller for tournaments, as he is not enough of a sure thing at his expensive price to consider him for cash games.
Ohio State
Expected Team Total Points: 31.75
Analysis: QB JT Barrett (8,300) is priced with the elite quarterbacks, but with the exception of efforts against Michigan and Rutgers, he hasn’t like up to that label this season. This can largely be attributed to his uncertain role within the offense, and it was certainly encouraging to see him close the regular season on such a high note, amassing 43.42 fantasy points against the Wolverines. RB Ezekiel Elliot (8,000) is also coming off of a signature performance against Michigan, running for 214 yards on 30 carries. Elliot was cited for driving with a suspended license after getting into a car accident this week. Ohio State has already confirmed that this will not affect Elliot’s status for the game against Notre Dame. WR Michael Thomas (5,100) hasn’t quite lived up to the high expectations set for him in the fantasy community this season, but he has a potentially good matchup since Notre Dame’s top cornerback Keivarae Russell will miss the bowl game, and his replacement Devin Butler is also out due to injury.
Recommendation: JT Barrett isn’t one of our top plays in this slate, as we’d rather just pay the small difference and roster Deshaun Watson. Ezekiel Elliot is a cheaper alternative to Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry and offers just as much upside. If you are looking for an elite running back that might be under-owned in tournaments, Elliot is your man. Michael Thomas is one of the cheaper receivers in this slate that has real, top tier upside. His low floor, however, has us only using him in GPPs.
Stanford vs. Iowa
Kickoff: 1-1-16, 5:00 PM EST
Spread: Stanford -6
O/U: 53.5
Stanford
Expected Team Total Points: 29.75
Analysis: Heisman runner-up RB Christian McCaffrey (9,000) is the most expensive player in this slate, and he earned that price tag by piling up at least 20 fantasy points in all but two games this year. In his most recent game against USC, McCaffrey showcased his versatility, running for 207 yards, catching four passes for 105 yards, and throwing an 11 yard touchdown pass. He will need to be used creatively against an Iowa defense that has only allowed one 100 yard rushing performance to a running back all season. The Hawkeyes have been exceedingly strong against the run all season, giving up only 114.9 yards per game.
Recommendation: McCaffrey’s ability to contribute in a number of different ways gives him multiple paths to fantasy value, however it’s difficult to see him putting together a truly monstrous performance against Iowa. Both teams will be playing at a very slow tempo and have very good defenses and this game isn’t likely to see a ton of scoring. Stanford’s ability to creatively use McCaffrey keeps him in play as a GPP option, but considering the percentage of salary that you will have to commit to him, we don’t recommend him for cash games. The risks you will have to take at other positions to offset his salary are greater than the likelihood that he puts together a performance worthy of his exorbitant cost.
Iowa
Expected Team Total Points: 23.75
Analysis: QB CJ Beathard (4,900) had a solid run, from a fantasy perspective during the middle part of the season when Iowa was facing some of the easier Big 10 defenses, but his numbers have regressed down the stretch, as the Hawkeyes have increasingly emphasized running the football. Over the team’s last four games, Beathard has only averaged 19.5 pass attempts per game and with both these teams likely looking to establish clock controlling, running back driven gameplans, a big game for Beathard doesn’t appear to be likely. RB Jordan Canzeri (5,600) hurt his ankle in the Big 10 Championship game, but has deemed his himself ready to play in the Rose Bowl. He was quoted on December 26th as saying “I feel great. It’s definitely getting there. We have six days left for me to get really there." The fact that he’s not yet 100 percent isn’t exactly encouraging for someone who has been banged up this year and throughout his career. According to Offensive Coordinator Greg Davis, ‘Between Canzeri/Wadley/Daniels, it's "who gets a hot hand.’
Recommendation: Assuming Iowa is able to find success running the football against Stanford, it would largely be an exercise in guesswork trying to figure out how the carries will be distributed. We don’t recommend rostering Canzeri or Leshun Daniels Jr. (4,100) in cash games, as there’s too much risk attached to these players, from the perspectives of health, effectiveness, and role. One intriguing note is that Offensive Coordinator Greg Davis did state the WR Derrick Mitchell Jr. (3,000) will be the team’s third down back in the Rose Bowl. Mitchell led the team in rushing in the Big 10 Championship game, totaling 24 yards on four carries, seeing action after Canzeri left injured. His wide receiver distinction gives him potentially hidden value and he would definitely be a very low owned tournament pivot. At the minimum price, he has appeal as a lottery ticket.
Oklahoma State vs. Ole Miss
Kickoff: 1-1-16, 8:30 PM EST
Spread: Ole Miss -7
O/U: 67.5
Oklahoma State
Expected Team Total Points: 30.25
Analysis: After seeing how Mike Gundy handled the (lack of) dissemination of information concerning the health of QB Mason Rudolph (5,900) leading up to the team’s game against Oklahoma, it’s difficult to put much faith in the vague updates we’ve since received on the quarterback’s recovery from a right foot injury. Coach Mike Gundy stated on December 21st that “with the increased role and number of practice reps that J.W.'s gotten, we would expect him to play at least half the game, either way, depending on Mason's health." If Rudolph is ruled out, or is very much trending toward not playing, we’d then have to consider playing QB J.W. Walsh (6,200). Walsh played all but one series against Oklahoma in Rudolph’s absence, and while he was unable to keep pace with the Sooners on the scoreboard, he showcased his fantasy friendly skillset – throwing for 325 yards and two touchdowns, and also leading the team with 50 yards rushing. WR James Washington (6,500) is one of the top deep threats in the country. Though he’s caught less than half of his targets this years – 50 of 104 – this is largely due to so many of those targets being low percentage vertical ‘shot plays.’ Washington is extremely adept in that role however, as can be inferred from his 52-1,077-10 line this season. While deep ball threats are usually risky options, the target volume Washington has seen in recent weeks – an average of 13 targets in his last three games - makes him more trustworthy than other receivers who play a similar role in their teams’ offense.
Recommendation: J.W. Walsh will only be in play if we can confidently determine that Rudolph will not have a material role. If that turns out to be the case, we feel that Walsh should have little trouble hitting value at his salary of 6,200. He may not be the efficient thrower that Rudolph is, but the offense does not change for the worse with Walsh at the helm. The team still takes plenty of deep shots and Walsh also operates largely as the lead ball carrier. Assuming confidence can be gained regarding Walsh’s playing time, we like him in both cash games and tournaments. James Washington is a fantastic tournament play, as he represents the wide receiver with the highest ceiling in this slate. We feel confident that he is usable in cash games as well, but primarily we are looking to construct cash game lineups around cheaper receivers, allowing room to pay up at running back and quarterback.
Ole Miss
Expected Team Total Points: 37.25
Analysis: In a slate ripe with strong defenses and average quarterbacks, QB Chad Kelly (7,000) stands out as a clear outlier. Kelly has been a strong play all year, throwing for 3,740 yards and 27 touchdowns, and adding 427 yards and a team leading 10 scores via the ground. Ole Miss has been one of the most pass-dependent teams this season, amassing 64.80% of their total yards through the air – 25th highest in the FBS. Oklahoma State is very vulnerable against the pass, giving up huge passing outputs to Big 12 opponents Baylor, Texas Tech, and TCU down the stretch. While Oklahoma and Baylor showed us that the Cowboys can be beat on the ground, rushing for 344 and 304 yards, respectively, Ole Miss simply doesn’t have the same talent in its backfield, other than Kelly, to cause concern about how the Rebels may choose to gameplan against the Cowboys. Though Kelly’s top target WR Laquan Treadwell (6,600) is one of the most talented receivers in college football, the tertiary talent that Ole Miss possesses at the skill positions has Treadwell seeing less targets than many other true number one receivers. For context, in Ole Miss’s last five games, starting with Texas A&M on October 24th, Treadwell has seen 6, 8, 7, 10, and 10 targets. Of course, he’s been productive in many of those contests, but the bountiful amount of options available to Chad Kelly results in Treadwell’s floor being lower than it might otherwise be.
Recommendation: Chad Kelly is our preferred cash game building block at quarterback. We expect him to be very highly owned due to his combination of talent, matchup, and reasonable price (for a quarterback of his stature.) Because of all the weapons that Kelly has at his disposal, Kelly having a big game doesn’t necessarily correlate to Laquan Treadwell going off. Treadwell’s upside is as high as any receiver in this slate, but he’s only an option in GPPs because of his relatively low floor. WR Evan Engram (3,000) is in play as a preferred punt option. He hasn’t a particularly strong season, only catching 32 passes for 368 yards and 2 touchdowns, but possesses more than enough talent to blow past value in this matchup.
