As we approach the final semi-meaningful preseason game and the most popular weekend for fantasy drafts, it's a great time to look at some more training camp news with a critical eye. Talent is king at this time of year and can sometimes cause people to overlook situation and opportunity. It's a difficult time to get a read on injuries, position battles and planned usage. Because of that some sleepers become over-hyped while other options become sleepers. Let's try to sort through it in this week's Believe It Or Not.
A healthy Travis Kelce has added a new element to the Chiefs offense and should be drafted as a borderline TE1. Kelce is a huge target that has shown explosive speed in the preseason and he plays for a coach and organization that likes to involve their tight end. He's provided the two most exciting plays of the preseason for the Chiefs and gives them a much needed weapon in the passing. Their lack of receiving options and the unspectacular Anthony Fasano make Kelce a good bet to post top 15 numbers.
Verdict: Don't believe it. I love Kelce's talent and believe nearly everything in the paragraph above. Andy Reid apparently feels same the way, except every time he praises Kelce in the pass game he brings up his need to block better. It's no coincidence that Kelce's two preseason touchdowns have come from Chase Daniel and Aaron Murray, because a majority of the first team tight end targets are going to Anthony Fasano. The Chiefs are a run-first, screen-second team and Reid trusts Fasano's blocking enough to limit Kelce's snaps in 2014. He's still an excellent dynasty target.
The struggles of Eli Manning and the Giants offense have carried over to 2014 and it's time to start downgrading Giants even further. Manning's 2013 was a nightmare that he still hasn't woken up from. He's looked every bit as uncomfortable this preseason as he did in 2013, and his receivers aren't helping him any. This offense looks so dysfunctional that it's difficult to trust any of them at their current ADP.
Verdict: Believe it. Manning used to be looked at as a special quarterback that also was mistake prone. Unfortunately the mistakes have become even more common and his accuracy has gone in the tank. Last year seemed exceptionally bad but the reality is that his completion percentage has been declining since 2010. The fact that they get to play the Cowboys and Washington twice should produce a couple of decent games but it's hard to count on any consistency from this quarterback or this offense.
The Titans have figured out how to use Justin Hunter and he's going to live up to his potential in 2014. Hunter is built like a prototypical receiver and he flashed his athleticism as a rookie in 2013. His size and leaping ability make him a quality red zone threat on a team largely devoid of them. Hunter really popped in the team's second preseason game posting a 4-111-2 against the Saints. They seem to have embraced Hunter as the weapon he is, which will make him an excellent value on draft day.
Verdict: Don't believe it. As long as Jake Locker is playing quarterback, and Kendall Wright is getting most of the targets it's difficult to see Hunter as more than a lottery ticket bye week replacement. Ken Whisenhunt will likely focus heavily on the short passing game, which is Wright's specialty. The only chance Hunter has to becoming a reliable WR3 is if he can produce a large amount of red zone scores, and the Titans are going to have a hard time producing a large amount of red zone opportunities.
After the loss of Charles Sims, Lovie Smith suddenly sees Doug Martin as a "bell cow". We've spent most of the preseason hearing about how Jeff Tedford will use a RBBC in Tampa Bay, limiting Martin's fantasy value. Then Sims suffered a significant injury and reports out of Tampa Bay sound completely different. Tampa Bay is now talking about Martin as a three-down back and expectations are inching closer to where they were before 2013.
Verdict: Believe it. I have thought all along that the Buccaneers would be foolish to use a RBBC when Martin is so much better than the other options in the offense. Martin is a three down back, and there aren't really any questions about that. He's excellent catching the ball in space and he rushed for 11 touchdowns as a rookie. There are far more questions about his offensive line than his ability and there's no reason to think Tedford and Smith won't use him accordingly.