As part of our 2015 College Football DFS preview, we are going conference by conference to provide you a look at who the DFS targets are for this upcoming season.
Clemson
Quarterback
The biggest exclamation point for the Clemson Tigers this coming season should certainly be their star sophomore quarterback Deshaun Watson. Last season Watson passed for nearly 1500 yards with 14 touchdowns and only 2 Interceptions while throwing the majority of balls in only 4 games. It should be noted that Watson certainly has his share of durability concerns—a broken collarbone in pre-season 2014, a broken hand in the Louisville game, and a partially torn ACL that would ultimately require surgery. Luckily for DFS players, season-long durability is not a concern. If Watson is 100% at game-time, even with a relatively inexperienced offensive line protecting him this year, he should be worth the salary coming in as our #3 overall rated quarterback.
Running Back
Wayne Gallman should continue to carry the load at running back for the Tigers this season. Gallman certainly showed a positive trend last year in terms of workload, receiving an average of 18 carries per game to close the season as opposed to 5.5 carries per game in the first 6 weeks. However, Gallman’s usage really did not kick in until Deshaun Watson was off the field after week 6. Yes, I realize Gallman exploded against South Carolina for 191 and a touchdown, but Watson was playing through his torn ACL that game—so of course Gallman was fed a whopping 27 carries. With a healthy Watson on the field, and having lost 4 starters on the offensive line, we think Gallman’s upside should be relatively limited this year (ranked #71).
Wide Receiver
At wide receiver, Clemson gets back their two All-ACC studs in Mike Williams and Artavis Scott, who combined for nearly 2000 of Clemson’s 3400 yards through the air last year. These will be your main two wide receiver options to target from Clemson, with Scott gaining the slight edge in our book due to his reliable 82.6% catch rate in 2014 (Williams was 61.3%). Depending on defensive matchup, one or the other should make for an excellent pairing with Watson in your lineups.
Tight End
Clemson doesn’t heavily target its tight end position. Jordan Leggett is first on the depth chart, but we don’t expect much fantasy production from him.
Defense
Clemson had an incredible defense in 2015, allowing only 16.7 points against (3rd best in FBS). They ranked #1 in the country in yards per game allowed, with their pass defense just as stout as the run defense. This year, Clemson must replace 6 of their top 7 defensive linemen along with a few guys in the secondary. While we expect their run defense to regress slightly, we still would recommend caution when evaluating the potential upside of any wide receiver or quarterback facing off against the Tigers this year.
North Carolina
Quarterback
Boy, do we like Marquise Williams. For DFS purposes, this is a guy to really keep your eye on. Last season Williams had over 3000 passing yards with 21 touchdowns while sporting a 63% completion rate. Williams is very dangerous on the ground as well, as he was the team’s lead rusher with 788 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns. This year, we think Williams’ stats will slightly regress, but he still has plenty of upside as a QB1 when the matchup is right. The Tar Heels have a FAST PACED offense, ranking #1 in our 2014 Tempo Rankings. In addition, their defense should be horrible once again---so expect plenty of points with Williams at the center of it all.
Running Back
North Carolina has a talented, but crowded backfield. We think TJ Logan should continue to carry the lead role, and he comes in ranked as our #88 running back. His production should increase this year, but due to the competition for carries with Williams along with the rest of that backfield, Logan remains a secondary option as a value-play only.
Wide Receiver
With as much as North Carolina spreads the ball around, it is tough to put our finger on any one Tar Heel wide receiver. They had 11 players with double digit receptions last season, with their top 4 wide receivers each hauling in over 34 receptions for 400+ yards. This is a situation to watch, because with as explosive of an offense that North Carolina should have, any stand-out here would quickly move up in our rankings. Right now, we have Quinshad Davis ranked highest at #104 and think he would make for a decent option when paired with Williams at quarterback.
Tight End
North Carolina is not expected to have a playmaking tight end in the passing game—avoid this position.
Florida State
Quarterback
Notre Dame transfer Everett Golson is expected to lead the Seminoles at quarterback this year. Golson has shown flashes of success in the past, putting up consistent touchdown and yardage totals at Notre Dame. However, he comes with plenty of baggage, having lost 12 fumbles and 14 interceptions in 2014 campaign. With Florida State breaking in a brand new offensive line (from 174 career starts to only 9), along with the losses of offensive playmakers like Rashad Greene / Nick O’Leary / Dalvin Cook, we expect for Golson’s upside to be limited.
Running Back
Assuming Dalvin Cook is out of the picture (indefinite suspension), Mario Pender would be next in line to assume the lead running back role. Pender averaged 5 yards per carry last season on only 41 attempts with 4 touchdownss. If priced down, Pender could be a sneaky start at running back in games where FSU is heavily favorited or facing a weak run defense. We also want to keep an eye on 5-star freshman Jacques Patrick. With his size and talent, Patrick could easily eat into Pender’s workload, especially around the goal line.
Wide Receiver
Florida State has some young, talented players at the wide receiver position. Returning sophomore and 5-star recruit Travis Rudolph is expected to step into the WR1 role this season. Working opposite Rashad Greene last year, Rudolph averaged 14.6 yards per catch for 555 yards and 4 touchdowns. We have him ranked as our #56 wide receiver. Jesus Wilson also had a very similar stat line as Rudolph, but he does not seem to have the raw talent or size of Rudolph. Finally, watch for freshman 5-star recruit George Campbell to also get some looks this year.
Tight End
With the departure of 4-year tight end Nick O’Leary, it is an open contest for any of FSU’s three freshmen tight ends to step up. Unless one of these players begins to receive consistent targets, we do not see this position as being DFS-relevant.
Georgia Tech
Quarterback
Quarterback Justin Thomas will return for his second season as the starter. Last year, he averaged a paltry 130 passing yards per game, exceeding 18 attempts on only one occasion. We expect a similar year through the air, if not slightly declined due to a stronger schedule. Although on the ground, Thomas’s potential should increase significantly due to their loss of so much talent on offense. He averaged around 80 rushing yards per game last season, and we think that will climb to over 100 rushing yards per game this season. Thomas is our #23 ranked quarterback, and with the 100-yard bonus on Draftkings, he has to be considered for both cash and tournament lineups if the price is right.
Running Back
Georgia Tech will be losing their core trio of running backs in Days / Laskey / Perkins who accounted for almost half of Georgia Tech’s total rushing yards. In spite of those losses, we still think their run game ploughs forward due to the return of a mostly in-tact premium offensive line (with the exception of All-American Shaquille Mason). We expect for senior back Broderick Snoddy to see a lot of snaps, as he averaged 10.1 yards per carry on his small sample of 28 rushes. Stanford transfer Patrick Skov should also be in the mix, but due to Georgia Tech’s flexbone offense coupled with their talented rushing quarterback, we would not advise putting much stock in a Yellow Jacket running back unless we see a significant standout over the first few weeks.
Wide Receiver
Of the 106 team receptions last year (yes, I said only 106 in TOTAL), the Georgia Tech receivers / backs accounting for 95 of those are now gone. This team will continue to pound the rock--stay away their Wide Receivers.
Tight End
Georgia Tech does not utilize a tight end in the triple option flexbone offense.
NC State
Quarterback
Jacoby Brissett was a critical piece to the Wolfpack’s success last season, throwing for just over 2600 yards and 24 touchdowns while allowing only 6 interceptions. He showed some decent mobility as well, carrying the ball an average of nearly 10 times per game amassing 529 yards and 3 rushing touchdowns. Brissett comes in ranked as our #43 quarterback, so depending on his price, he could make for an interesting QB2 when paired with TE David Grinnage—you may just want to avoid him against some of those elite ACC defenses.
Running Back
We expect to see Shadrach Thornton take on the majority of carries this year, but know that the load may be shared with the speedy junior Matt Dayes. Each averaged a solid 5.5 yards per carry last year with 9 and 8 touchdowns respectively. Although we do not see much upside at the running back position here due to the competition for carries expected in this NC State offense between Thornton, Dayes, Brissett, and a handful of talented freshman backs.
Wide Receiver
Keep an eye on Bra'Lon Cherry to step up at wide receiver, but overall we are not expecting much at this position.
Tight End
David Grinnage is one of the best Tight Ends in the country, ranking #7 on our list. Last season he had 28 receptions at 9.5 yards per catch with 5 touchdowns, and after the loss of a few veteran wide receivers, we expect Grinnage’s usage to only increase. He should see plenty of looks in the red zone and therefore remains a solid DFS option in both cash and tournament formats.
Duke
Quarterback
Thomas Sirk is set to take over the reins at quarterback for Duke. Sirk is widely unproven, having only seen a few snaps behind Anthony Boone last year. Sirk will get his safety outlet tight end in Braxton Deaver back, but he has a lot of inexperience to work with at the wide receiver position after losing his top 2 targets in the offseason. Sirk has been touted for his running ability, so we do look for him to gain some yards on the ground. We will have to watch how Sirk performs the first couple of weeks before considering adding him to our DFS roster—as with any mobile quarterback, there certainly can be DFS upside potential.
Running Back
We think the workload at running back for Duke should be a fairly even split between Shaun Wilson and Shaquille Powell. Had Jela Duncan not recently torn his pectoral muscle (out indefinitely), this split would be even more interesting as he certainly has some talent. We think Shaun Wilson gets the nod as the more useful back due to his speed, touchdown upside, and impressive 7.7 yards per carry in 2014. Although, due to the split in workload, we would not recommend either Duke running back as a DFS play.
Wide Receiver
The loss of Jamison Crowder and Issac Blakeney is huge for the Duke wide receiver position. Having accounted for 50% of the team’s targets and 58% of total receiving yards, there certainly will be some opportunities for other guys to step up. Max McCaffrey has some size and should step up this year, but we will have to wait and see if any of the Duke wide receivers step up. At this point, since we think Braxton Deaver will be heavily used at tight end, we would recommend avoiding the Duke receivers.
Tight End
If you are going to target any offensive position for Duke, we would recommend their tight end Braxton Deaver. He missed the 2014 season with a torn ACL, but in 2013 Deaver accounted for 46 receptions for 600 yards and 4 touchdowns. Considering the inexperience of Sirk and the pass-first offensive style that Duke has attempted to follow in recent years, we expect for Sirk to rely heavily on his 6’5 245lb tight end. Deaver is ranked as our #13 tight end and makes for an excellent cash game option this year.
Miami
Quarterback
Brad Kaaya returns after throwing for nearly 3200 yards with 26 touchdowns last season as a true freshman starter. Kaaya started the year well for a freshman, sporting over a 60% completion rate and an average Quarterback Rating of 160 in his first 9 games (that includes an abysmal performance versus a great Virginia Tech defense). However in his last 4 games, Kaaya’s completion rate dropped to around 52% with an average Quarterback Rating of only 127. The loss of key offensive weapons at all skilled positions combined with Kaaya’s complete absence of mobility will put a damper on his DFS upside this season. We have him ranked below average and recommend avoiding him.
Running Back
Joseph Yearby and Gus Edwards are currently battling for the top spot at running back for the Hurricanes. Yearby had just over 500 yards and 1 touchdown last year serving as the primary backup to former starter Duke Johnson. The other running back in the mix is power runner Gus Edwards, who actually had a whopping 6 touchdowns on only 61 carries last season. Edwards is a very talented runner who we project to win the job and rush for over 1000 yards this year. If Edwards does take win the job and show some consistency in the first couple of weeks, keep an eye on him for a value DFS play as the season moves on. If we see Yearby and Edwards splitting carries, this will be a situation to avoid for DFS.
Wide Receiver
Herb Waters is atop the depth chart at wide receiver, with Stacy Coley not far behind him. If the 2013 version of Stacy Coley were to re-appear (33 REC, 591 YDS, 7 TDs), he would become an intriguing option at wide receiver in 2015. However, temper your expectation since he put up an abysmal 8 yards per catch with no touchdowns in his 11 games last season. Neither Coley nor Waters break our top-150 wide receivers, so we will avoid targeting either in DFS unless someone stands out early in the season.
Tight End
Standish Dobard will start at tight end in place of the departing Clive Walford. Dobard had some explosive moments last year averaging 21 yards per catch in his very limited opportunities, but we would not expect him to be a viable tight end option from the get-go this year.
Pittsburgh
Quarterback
Chad Voytik had a slow start at quarterback for the Panthers in 2014, but he really turned the corner in their last 6 contests sporting a 66.4% completion rate and nearly 200 passing yards per game. For DFS purposes, we would not typically recommend him due to his limited pass attempts—however if his price is down and you pair him with star wide receiver Tyler Boyd, Voytik could be a serviceable QB2 in GPP formats.
Running Back
There is not really much to say here other than James Conner is an absolute stud. He pounded the rock nearly 300 times for over 1700 yards and 26 touchdowns last season. Despite losing lose two all-ACC linemen; Pittsburgh still has some experienced options for Conner to run behind; so we don’t think this will have much of an impact on his production. James Conner remains a top option at running back, coming in #9 overall on Fanduel (#11 on Draftkings due to his lack of receptions).
Wide Receiver
The only name you need here is Tyler Boyd. After eclipsing 1000 yards in his first 2 seasons, we see Boyd being another go-to wide receiver option in DFS this year. His consistency and volume is exactly what we love in a DFS wide receiver. Last season Boyd accounted for an unreal 41.5% of all team targets, with his 1261 receiving yards representing 52% of the team’s total receiving yards. Boyd comes in as our #22 overall ranked wide receiver based on only 11 games (suspended week 1). Boyd would be a top 10 option if playing the full season, so consider him a go-to target in your cash games this season.
Tight End
Give tight end J.P. Holtz a look in tournaments when Pittsburgh is facing some of those tough ACC defenses. An immense amount of attention will be paid to both Boyd and Connor, so Holtz has a chance to make some plays as the Panthers’ #2 option in the passing game.
Virginia Tech
Quarterback
Michael Brewer returns for his senior season this year. For DFS purposes, Brewer should not be considered as he comes in ranked at our #109 quarterback. He does not run and has limited passing upside, having passed for more than 300 yards only once last year and averaging over 1 interception plus nearly 3 sacks per game.
Running Back
JC Coleman is first on the depth chart at running back as of right now. He had a very strong finish to the 2014 season rushing for 468 yards in the final 4 games. However despite the strong finish, Coleman still comes in near the bottom of our running back rankings at #115 due to his limited usage in this offense. Virginia Tech has not had a decent rushing game since David Wilson in 2011, and we don’t expect much improvement this year. A healthy Trey Edmunds and exonerated Shai McKenzie could prove us wrong, but even so, look elsewhere for a running back.
Wide Receiver
In 2014, Isaiah Ford led the team in receiving with 56 catches on 90 targets for 709 yards and 6 touchdowns. However, Ford only broke the 100-yard mark once last season in his 8 catch 114 yard performance against Georgia Tech. While we think his numbers will improve this season (ranked as our #49 wide receiver), we would only see Ford as being a cheap cash game play due to his lack of big-game upside.
Tight End
The primary fantasy option for the Hokies is Bucky Hodges, coming in ranked as our #3 tight end. Last year as a freshman, Hodges broke numerous school records by hauling in 45 receptions for 526 yards and a team-leading 7 touchdowns. Hodges will be a pricey option, but with his consistent targets, especially in the red zone, he should continue to be highly owned in both cash games and tournaments.
Defense
It is worth mentioning that Virginia Tech has an outstanding defense with a stellar pass-rush and three of the best cornerbacks in the country. Kendall Fuller may be the nation’s top shut-down cornerbacks, so keep this in mind when assessing the upside of opposing #1 wide receivers and quarterbacks this season.
Louisville
Quarterback
The Louisville quarterback position is still up for grabs at this point in the pre-season. Reggie Bonnafon seems to have the edge over Will Gardner due to his athleticism and upside, but either could come out on top or even split time as the season begins. Regardless, each would be outside of our top-100 rankings and not a strong option for DFS.
Running Back
Brandon Radcliff is expected to shoulder the load at running back this season for the Cardinals. Radcliff finished the 2014 season relatively strong in terms of fantasy production with 242 yards and a 6 touchdowns in his last 4 games. Over the course of the season, Radcliff did show fantasy upside by rushing for over 100 yards in 3 games and scoring multiple touchdowns in 5 games. However with that said, Louisville will need to make significant improvements on offensive line. Last year they had a 23.4% stuff rate (113th in FBS) along with a 61% power success rate (107th in FBS). Maybe their loss of all 4 starting guards / tackles (158 career starts) will be a good thing? We will have to wait and see, but at this point, Radcliff remains a mediocre running back option ranked at #78.
Wide Receiver
The loss of Devante Parker is huge for Louisville, but the Cardinals still should have some big-play upside with James Quick, who averaged just over 15 yards per catch in his first 2 seasons. Quick only had 2 games over 100 yards last year and struggled with drops, but with Parker gone he will certainly see a few more targets. Other options would include sophomore Ja`Quay Savage and 6’6’’ freshman transfer from Florida Devante Peete. With that said, none of these wide receivers crack the top-100 in our rankings, but Quick could be considered in GPP formats for his big-play potential.
Tight End
The 6’6’’ 261 lb tight end Keith Townbridge returns this season, but after only catching 9 balls on 22 targets last season, he will not be an option you want to roll with on Saturdays.
Boston College
Quarterback
Boston College is a run-first, run again team, ranking 15th in rushing yards per game last season. With the loss of mobile quarterback Tyler Murphy, the Eagles are left with inexperienced in Darius Wade. Avoid the Boston College quarterback position, as Wade comes in near the bottom of our quarterback rankings.
Running Back
With the absence of running quarterback Tyler Murphy (1184 rushing yards last season), Jon Hilliman should see an increase in carries as RB1. He averaged 16 carries per game last year with 5 multi-touchdown games. However, Boston College is expected to employ a committee including a couple other guys all running behind a brand new offensive line—therefore we suggest avoiding this position unless we see give Hilliman 20+ carries consistently.
Wide Receiver
Again, this is a rushing offense. Boston College did not have a single wide receiver with over 30 receptions last year. Avoid this position.
Tight End
Not a single tight end caught a pass last year for Boston College. Avoid this position.
Defense
It should continue to be tough to run on the Eagles this year. They are returning the majority of a defensive line and linebacker core that crushed the run with a whopping 27% stuff rate (4th in FBS). We would not recommend using any running back facing this defense.
Syracuse
Quarterback
Quarterback Terrell Hunt only played 6 games last season, but he showed some significant upside in a couple of them. In week 2 against Central Michigan, Hunt passed for 175 yards and 1 touchdown while rushing for 92 yards and 3 touchdowns. The following week against Maryland he passed for 219 yards and rushed for 156 yards with 2 touchdowns. If his price is low, Hunt’s rushing ability vaults him to a decent value play on multi-quarterback sites.
Running Back
Unless someone emerges, there are no DFS relevant running backs to be considered here.
Wide Receiver
Given the Orange’s lack of success in the passing game, we would not recommend using any of their wide receivers.
Tight End
We do not expect to see a DFS-relevant tight end from Syracuse.
Virginia
Quarterback
Matt Johns will have the lead role at quarterback this year. Johns is certainly set up for success with returning 7 linemen who started a game last year. This is after a year where their unit ranked 12th in the country in both Adjusted Sack Rate and Passing Downs Sack Rate. However since Virginia runs a fairly balanced offense between the run and pass, we do not expect to see much DFS relevance from Johns since he should come close to throwing as many touchdowns as he will interceptions. Avoid him for DFS purposes.
Running Back
Taquan Mizzell should lead the charge at running back this year for the Cavaliers. As third on the depth chart last season, Mizzell had very average yards per carry of 4.4, resulting in 280 yards and 2 touchdowns. We think Mizzell’s workload on the ground should increase, but we are still not projecting him to surpass 1000 yards as carries may still be split with sophomore Daniel Hamm. Where Mizzell really has upside is the passing game-- he showed he can catch last year with a 75% catch rate, converting 52 targets into 39 receptions for 271 yards. The 5-star talent Mizzell has upside, but he is still outside our top-50 running back rankings due to the balanced Virginia offensive scheme.
Wide Receiver
The Cavaliers get their #1 wide receiver in Canaan Severin back this year. Last season Severin was very consistent, hauling in 4 or more balls in 8 of their contests for an average of around 50 yards per game. The issue is his upside, as Severin surpassed neither 5 receptions nor 100 yards in a single game. If he is cheap, take a look for cash games—but we would not recommend Severin as a tournament play.
Tight End
Virginia does not heavily use a pass-catching tight end in their offensive system.
Wake Forest
Quarterback
Unless Justin Wolford takes a big step forward in his second season as a starter, the Wake Forest quarterback position is one you want to avoid.
Running Back
Wake Forest’s leading running back last year had 240 yards rushing. We don’t anticipate it improving this year, this is a position you can safely avoid.
Wide Receiver
If Justin Wolford takes a big step forward this year, E.J Scott could become interesting. Otherwise, this is a position to avoid, as there are better options.
Tight End
Cam Serigne is really the only fantasy option on this team. In 2014, the freshman tight end hauled in 54 catches for 531 yards and 5 touchdowns on a 70% catch rate. If Wolford continues to struggle, he should be heavily relying on his safety outlet at tight end. Serigne is our #2 tight end and a top option for your cash games.