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The early part of the Dynasty startup draft calendar is a great time to get value in drafts. Here are four early startup trends that should help you draft your teams.
Quarterbacks Early
The early theme of Dynasty Superflex startup drafts is the pace at which quarterbacks are flying off the board. Of the 12 players with median draft positions in the first round of Superflex startup drafts this offseason, eight are quarterbacks, three are running backs, and one is the 1.01 rookie pick. With Trevor Lawrence the projected 1.01 in rookie classes, that makes three-quarters of the first round of Superflex drafts dominated by quarterbacks. If you include Russell Wilson, who is currently the median 2.01 pick in startup drafts, there is a big tier at the top of the board, then a huge tier break to Aaron Rodgers at QB10 at 3.03.
There are strategies you can construct where you miss on the Top 10 quarterbacks and still put together a competent dynasty team. However, this will require planning, particularly in 2021. In prior seasons there have been great value opportunities from QB10 through QB25. With the amount of uncertainty at the position and potential trade movement still to come, there is less certainty in this range than in years past. For example, the young quarterbacks in the range including Jalen Hurts (QB12), Baker Mayfield (QB 13), Tua Tagovailoa (QB 15), Daniel Jones (QB19.5), and Sam Darnold (QB24) all have uncertainty in their job status. Similarly, some veterans have questionable longevity, including Carson Wentz (QB17), Matt Ryan (QB19), Derek Carr (QB20), and Jared Goff (QB21).
If you are going to miss out on the Top 10 at the quarterback position, a lot of planning is required, particularly around your comfort level of quarterback two, three, and four. If you miss one of the Top 10 quarterbacks, targeting two stable options in the next range like Matthew Stafford (QB14), Ryan Tannehill (QB12), and Kirk Cousins (QB17) becomes a must-do. Your strategy should then pivot to a combination of veterans and upside options.
Distressed Assets Aplenty
The early startup draft market is a prime opportunity to pounce on high performers that are being discounted because of recent events. Slow finishes for Russell Wilson (QB9), Ezekiel Elliott (RB12), Michael Thomas (WR10), and Adam Theilen (WR35) are all high performers who finished 2020 on down notes resulting in falling prices. Elliott, with five top-12 seasonal finishes to begin his career, is a particularly strong candidate to return value at his cost.
Further down the dial, David Johnson (RB36.5) and Melvin Gordon (RB27) are essentially locked into starting roles in 2021 and going at backup prices. If you are competing in 2021, they are quality targets at cost. On the younger end, Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB14) and Josh Jacobs (RB11) have platinum profiles that are being discounted by the market.
Big Assumptions at Running Back
A.J. Dillon is perhaps the most fascinating cost of any player in Dynasty at present. At RB21, the market is essentially assuming that he will be Green Bay’s starter in week 1 of 2021. By way of comparison, Aaron Jones is RB18 and David Montgomery is RB20. In fact, Dillon is the most expensive running back in dynasty drafts who was not a 2020 starter. At his cost, it is a question of how much higher Dillon could rise in value if Jones leaves Green Bay in free agency. If you are risk-averse, this is a time to consider a cash-out.
The market is making a huge bet on Cam Akers (2.10) who is going slightly ahead of Derrick Henry (2.11), Nick Chubb (2.12), and Josh Jacobs (3.09) despite a much smaller sample size. If you are making the riskier bet on Akers, there is some upside, but more danger than the other players in the range.
Pick Your Adventure at Wide Receiver
The wide receiver position can be a pick-your-own profile adventure. If you prefer young wide receivers, there are key options early in the draft including DK Metcalf (WR2), Justin Jefferson (WR3), A.J. Brown (WR5), and CeeDee Lamb (WR8) in the second through the fourth round. If you are looking for mid-career players with prior production, Tyreek Hill (WR3), Stefon Diggs (WR6), Calvin Ridley (WR9), and Michael Thomas (WR10) are all options.
If you want to wait at the position, there are rare profiles, with dense hit profiles to date available in the teens including Allen Robinson (WR17), Mike Evans (WR18), Amari Cooper (WR19), and JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR21) available in the sixth and seventh rounds. The production profiles of these players, while still in their prime windows of production are historic discounts.