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Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
[Blue font indicates games *not* on the DFS main slate.]
Updated Sunday, January 3rd @ 6:00 AM (EST)
Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
Indianapolis | Jacksonville | -14.5 | 48.5 | 31.5 | ««« | ««« | «« |
Tennessee | Houston | -7 | 55.5 | 31.25 | ««« | ««« | |
Minnesota | Detroit | -4 | 54 | 29 | ««« | ««« | |
Baltimore | Cincinnati | -14 | 44 | 29 | «« | ««« | ««« |
Tampa Bay | Atlanta | -7 | 50 | 28.5 | «« | «« | |
Green Bay | Chicago | -4.5 | 50 | 27.25 | «« | «« | |
Las Vegas | Denver | -2.5 | 50.5 | 26.5 | « | « | |
Seattle | San Francisco | -7 | 46 | 26.5 | « | «« | « |
Cleveland | Pittsburgh | -9.5 | 43.5 | 26.5 | « | «« | «« |
New Orleans | Carolina | -6 | 46.5 | 26.25 | « | « | |
Detroit | Minnesota | 4 | 54 | 25 | |||
Houston | Tennessee | 7 | 55.5 | 24.25 | |||
Denver | Las Vegas | 2.5 | 50.5 | 24 | |||
LA Chargers | Kansas City | -5 | 43 | 24 | « | ||
Washington | Philadelphia | -4 | 44 | 24 | |||
Dallas | NY Giants | -2 | 45 | 23.5 | |||
Chicago | Green Bay | 4.5 | 50 | 22.75 | |||
Buffalo | Miami | -2 | 42 | 22 | |||
Arizona | LA Rams | -2.5 | 41.5 | 22 | « | ||
Atlanta | Tampa Bay | 7 | 50 | 21.5 | |||
NY Giants | Dallas | 2 | 45 | 21.5 | |||
New England | NY Jets | -3 | 39.5 | 21.25 | « | ||
Carolina | New Orleans | 6 | 46.5 | 20.25 | |||
Philadelphia | Washington | 4 | 44 | 20 | |||
Miami | Buffalo | 2 | 42 | 20 | |||
San Francisco | Seattle | 7 | 46 | 19.5 | |||
LA Rams | Arizona | 2.5 | 41.5 | 19.5 | |||
Kansas City | LA Chargers | 5 | 43 | 19 | |||
NY Jets | New England | 3 | 39.5 | 18.25 | |||
Jacksonville | Indianapolis | 14.5 | 48.5 | 17 | |||
Pittsburgh | Cleveland | 9.5 | 43.5 | 17 | |||
Cincinnati | Baltimore | 14 | 44 | 15 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Ryan Tannehill (Titans), Philip Rivers (Colts), Kirk Cousins (Vikings)
- Running Back: Derrick Henry (Titans), Jonathan Taylor/Nyheim Hines (Colts), Alexander Mattison (Vikings), J.K. Dobbins/Gus Edwards (Ravens)
- Receivers: A.J. Brown/Corey Davis/Jonnu Smith (Titans), T.Y. Hilton/Michael Pittman/Zach Pascal/Jack Doyle (Colts), Adam Thielen/Justin Jefferson/Irv Smith (Vikings)
- Defense: Ravens
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Tom Brady (Buccaneers), Lamar Jackson (Ravens)
- Running Back: Aaron Jones (Packers), Ronald Jones II/Leonard Fournette (Buccaneers), Chris Carson (Seahawks), Nick Chubb/Kareem Hunt (Browns)
- Receivers: Davante Adams/Allen Lazard/Robert Tonyan Jr (Packers), Mike Evans/Chris Godwin/Rob Gronkowski (Buccaneers), Marquise Brown/Willie Snead/Mark Andrews (Ravens)
- Defense: Browns, Colts
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Drew Brees (Saints), Derek Carr (Raiders), Russell Wilson (Seahawks), Baker Mayfield (Browns)
- Running Back: Ty Montgomery (Saints), Josh Jacobs (Raiders)
- Receivers: Emmanuel Sanders/Marquez Callaway/Jared Cook (Saints), Henry Ruggs/Nelson Agholor/Hunter Renfrow/Darren Waller (Raiders), DK Metcalf/Tyler Lockett (Seahawks), Jarvis Landry/Rashard Higgins/Austin Hooper (Browns)
- Defense: Patriots, Chargers, Cardinals, Seahawks