Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
[Blue font indicates games *not* on the DFS main slate.]
UPDATED SUNDAY, DECEMBER 27TH @ 6 AM (EST)
Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
Kansas City | Atlanta | -10.5 | 53 | 31.75 | ««« | ««« | |
Tampa Bay | Detroit | -9.5 | 54 | 31.75 | ««« | ««« | |
New Orleans | Minnesota | -7 | 51 | 29 | «« | ««« | |
Green Bay | Tennessee | -3 | 54 | 28.5 | «« | «« | |
Chicago | Jacksonville | -8 | 46.5 | 27.25 | « | «« | « |
Baltimore | NY Giants | -10 | 44 | 27 | « | «« | «« |
Houston | Cincinnati | -8 | 46 | 27 | « | «« | « |
Arizona | San Francisco | -5 | 49 | 27 | « | « | |
Buffalo | New England | -7 | 46.5 | 26.75 | « | «« | « |
Philadelphia | Dallas | -3 | 50 | 26.5 | « | « | |
Cleveland | NY Jets | -7 | 44.5 | 25.75 | « | ||
Tennessee | Green Bay | 3 | 54 | 25.5 | |||
LA Chargers | Denver | -3 | 48 | 25.5 | |||
Miami | Las Vegas | -3 | 47.5 | 25.25 | |||
Seattle | LA Rams | -1 | 47.5 | 24.25 | |||
Dallas | Philadelphia | 3 | 50 | 23.5 | |||
LA Rams | Seattle | 1 | 47.5 | 23.25 | |||
Denver | LA Chargers | 3 | 48 | 22.5 | |||
Pittsburgh | Indianapolis | -2 | 43 | 22.5 | |||
Detroit | Tampa Bay | 9.5 | 54 | 22.25 | |||
Las Vegas | Miami | 3 | 47.5 | 22.25 | |||
Minnesota | New Orleans | 7 | 51 | 22 | |||
San Francisco | Arizona | 5 | 49 | 22 | |||
Washington | Carolina | -1 | 41.5 | 21.25 | |||
Atlanta | Kansas City | 10.5 | 53 | 21.25 | |||
Indianapolis | Pittsburgh | 2 | 43 | 20.5 | |||
Carolina | Washington | 1 | 41.5 | 20.25 | |||
New England | Buffalo | 7 | 46.5 | 19.75 | |||
Jacksonville | Chicago | 8 | 46.5 | 19.25 | |||
Cincinnati | Houston | 8 | 46 | 19 | |||
NY Jets | Cleveland | 7 | 44.5 | 18.75 | |||
NY Giants | Baltimore | 10 | 44 | 17 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Patrick Mahomes II (Chiefs), Tom Brady (Buccaneers)
- Running Back: LeVeon Bell (Chiefs), Ronald Jones II (Buccaneers), Alvin Kamara (Saints), Nick Chubb/Kareem Hunt (Browns)
- Receivers: Tyreek Hill/Sammy Watkins/Mecole Hardman/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), Mike Evans/Chris Godwin/Rob Gronkowski (Buccaneers)
- Defense: None
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Drew Brees (Saints)
- Running Back: Aaron Jones (Packers), J.K. Dobbins/Gus Edwards (Ravens), David Montgomery (Bears), David Johnson (Texans), Zack Moss/Devin Singletary (Bills)
- Receivers: Davante Adams/Allen Lazard/Robert Tonyan Jr (Packers), Emmanuel Sanders/Jared Cook (Saints)
- Defense: Ravens
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Lamar Jackson (Ravens), Mitchell Trubisky (Bears), Deshaun Watson (Texans), Kyler Murray (Cardinals), Josh Allen (Bills), Jalen Hurts (Eagles)
- Running Back: Kenyan Drake (Cardinals), Derrick Henry (Titans)
- Receivers: Marquise Brown/Willie Snead/Mark Andrews (Ravens), Allen Robinson/Anthony Miller/Darnell Mooney/Cole Kmet (Bears), Brandin Cooks/Keke Coutee/Jordan Akins (Texans), DeAndre Hopkins/Christian Kirk/Larry Fitzgerald (Cardinals), Stefon Diggs/Cole Beasley/Gabriel Davis/Dawson Knox (Bills), Greg Ward/Alshon Jeffery/Dallas Goedert/Zach Ertz (Eagles)
- Defense: Texans, Browns, Bills, Bears