Join the Footballguys Daily Update
Start your morning with our roundup of the most important stories in football - with the fantasy insight you need to make league-winning decisions. Delivered straight to your inbox, 100% free.
TOP 5 PASSING MATCHUPS WEEK 12
To view all of our Week 12 Matchup content, please see the links below:
Top 5 Passing Matchups Week 12
Bottom 5 Passing Matchups Week 12
Top 5 Rushing Matchups Week 12
Bottom 5 Rushing Matchups Week 12
Rushing Matchup Chart Week 12
Passing Matchup Chart Week 12
Detroit vs Houston
The Lions, hammered hard by injuries throughout the offense, still don’t know for sure what their Thanksgiving backfield will look like. If dynamic rookie DAndre Swift clears the concussion protocol in time, he’ll lead the way. He took on 63% of the team carries in the two games prior to the injury, and neither Kerryon Johnson nor Adrian Peterson seems to offer much. Swift has responded well to the workload, turning 29 rushes into 145 yards over those two weeks. He’s more explosive than the others, and more capable of producing in spite of the Lions’ mediocre front line play.
The Texans, by just about every measure, have fielded 2020’s most burnable run defense. Saddled with an ineffective rotation up front, and often working against a negative game flow, they’ve given up more yardage per game (159) and per rush (5.1) than anyone. Beyond J.J. Watt, the Texans simply don’t boast much run-tracking talent in the front seven. Middle linebacker Zach Cunningham racks up hefty tackle numbers but is often exposed when forced to pursue. And virtually everyone has cracked the code - 9 opposing runners have topped 70 yards, with 6 of them cruising past 100. Lacking a true nose up front as well, this unit routinely leaves wide gaps all over the formation. If Swift is able to suit up, he’ll fit the profile of quick-footed backs to find success running through them. Only two teams have allowed more breakaway runs (15+ yards) than this group.
Washington at Dallas
The Football Team appears to have found its dynamic back of the future. Rookie Antonio Gibson, showcasing a blend of speed (4.39) and bulk (6-foot-2 and 220), has commanded 58% of the backfield’s carries over the past four games. J.D. McKissic and, for whatever reason, Peyton Barber are mixed in liberally to spell the youngster. But McKissic rarely runs the ball outside hurry-up mode, while Barber is a career 3.5-yard per carry plodder. Overall, this backfield belongs more and more to Gibson each week. And last Sunday he hinted toward the ceiling he offers, turning 16 carries into 94 yards and a touchdown against the Bengals. He’ll now draw a similarly soft defensive matchup - a Dallas crew he shredded for 128 just last month.
The Cowboys continue to trot out one of 2020’s weakest run defenses, sitting 31st in per-game yardage and 30th per carry. Three of their last five opponents have produced a rusher of 125+ yards - including Gibson’s season-high 128 from five weeks ago. This unit doesn’t outright lack talent, particularly at linebacker, where Leighton Vander Esch and Jaylon Smith offer real value against the run. But without strong, block-absorbing bodies up front, they’re too often forced into traffic where their playmaking talents are wasted. The Cowboys are in desperate need of a stout nose tackle to command blocking inside; as it stands, their Thanksgiving matchup isn’t a favorable one. In Week 7, the Washington front line simply manhandled this light group, and the two units have only kept up their trendlines through the five weeks since. By all measures, the explosive Gibson projects to another big day on the ground.
Houston at Detroit
The Texans have struggled mightily throughout 2020 to carve out an impactful ground game. Their investment in David Johnson hasn’t paid off, producing just 4.0 yards per rush and 51 a game before his trip to injured reserve. Duke Johnson Jr has done little in his place - 120 yards over the past three weeks - and will again dominate the backfield on Thanksgiving. This is anything but an imposing attack, but Johnson will at least work behind an upper-tier run-blocking line. And of course, he’s buoyed greatly by a matchup with the Lions’ porous run defense.
The Lions’ beleaguered run defense may have turned a corner over the past two weeks, allowing just 3.0 yards per carry to opposing backs. But it seems more likely they simply benefitted from facing a pair of weak ground games, and that the truer picture of this unit comes from prior weeks. Over the first eight games, opponents coasted to a 5.1 average, with 10 different runners topping 60 on their own. The Detroit front seven is stocked with name-brand run-stuffers like Danny Shelton, Jarrad Davis, and Reggie Ragland, but few of them are effective at this stage. It’s been a particularly hard fall for Davis, the first-round pick from 2017 - he’s drawn just 26% of team snaps over his last three healthy games.
Pittsburgh vs Baltimore
The Steelers, flush with pass-catching talent on all levels of the field, aren’t running the ball particularly much these days. Lead runner James Conner hasn’t topped 15 attempts since Week 7; unsurprisingly, he hasn’t cleared 90 yards in a game over that span. Still, that dynamic air attack often serves to open up the field for Conner, allowing him to produce on a situational basis. Last Sunday, Conner took advantage and turned 13 carries into 89 yards. And in four games of 16 rushes or more, he’s averaged 100 and found the end zone three times. It also helps, of course, to work behind such a dominant front line. On the inside, Maurkice Pouncey and David DeCastro make up arguably the league’s premier run-blocking duo. They boast a small advantage here even when the Ravens are healthy in the trenches. This week, with multiple Baltimore starters on the shelf, the gap is wide enough to project Conner even more handsomely.
The Ravens’ imposing defense has taken big injury hits over the past few weeks, and now looks even more depleted on the short, chaotic week. Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams, the two run-stuffing building blocks up front, will almost certainly sit again Thursday night. Over two games without them, this unit has been shredded by power runners Damien Harris (121 yards) and Derrick Henry (133). There have been tackling issues throughout the year, with rookie Patrick Queen struggling perhaps most of all. And with the front line lightened so severely, more is asked of the playmakers, and those issues can be magnified. Just days ago, Henry churned consistently through a thinned-out Ravens front that faded notably down the stretch. His overtime touchdown was one-of-a-kind, but still a fair snapshot of the Ravens’ issues at the moment. Conner, a bruising interior runner in his own right, projects similarly if game flow and volume cooperate.
NY Giants vs Cincinnati
The Giants clearly miss Saquon Barkley in the worst way. He's among football's most explosive players, of course, and the likes of Wayne Gallman and Devonta Freeman pale in replacement. Anytime 31-year-old Alfred Morris is laying claim to 31% of the rushes, things have clearly gone off the rails. Thankfully, it doesn't take much firepower to produce against this sieve-like Bengals defense. Gallman and Morris project to solid volume, if nothing else (26 rushes last week), and it's worth noting that Gallman has found the end zone in four straight games.
The Bengals continue to trot out one of football's weakest crews against the run. This group sits 31st in yardage allowed and 29th on a per-carry basis, and it's not hard to see why. The front office spent up in the offseason for nose tackle D.J. Reader, a run-game specialist that did pay early dividends but was quickly lost for the year. Beyond that, little has been done for this porous unit. Linebackers Josh Bynes and Germaine Pratt consistently grade out near the bottom of the league in run support, and rookie Logan Wilson has brought almost nothing to the table. As a result, they've already allowed 12 different runners to top 60 yards on the ground. The Giants don't boast much of a ground game without Barkley, but they don't need a game-breaker to find volume-driven success in this friendly matchup.
