Photo: Jeremy Brevard, USA Today Sports

For the uninitiated, playing daily games on DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. Footballguys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “Tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on DraftKings and make value-based recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments.

Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.

TIPS AND PICKS

Let's take a deeper look into some of the players who I will be targeting for my cash game and tournament rosters this weekend. A short summary follows each respective table to fill in the gaps that led to the respective recommendations; that text represents only an overview of the methodology and rationale that goes into each recommendation. If you have questions about any of the recommendations or the process that led to them, please email me at john.lee@footballguys.com.

Updated Sunday, November 8th @ 8:30 AM

CASH GAMES

Quarterbacks: There is an argument to be made this week to save salary at the quarterback position by slotting in Jake Luton, a 6th-round pick out of Oregon State from this year's draft, against the Texans' 28th-ranked DVOA defense, but it's a risky proposition to recommend starting a quarterback without a single NFL snap (including pre-season). Instead, you are advised to spend up at the position and choose between either Deshaun Watson ($7.1K) or Josh Allen ($7.0K). Watson is white-hot of late, posting 300+ passing yards in every game over the past month and adding 25+ rushing yards in his last 3 games. He will face a Jaguars defense ranked dead-last in DVOA against the pass and one that is allowing the third-most points to quarterbacks (23.2 DK points per game). As an alternative to Watson, Josh Allen makes sense against the Seahawks, whose combination of plus offense and poor defense have resulted them allowing more fantasy production to quarterbacks than any team in the league (27.0 DK points per game). Allen is coming off a modest game against the Pats, where he threw for only ~ 150 yards and his only touchdown was via his legs. We should expect Russell Wilson's offense to drive the pace of this game and Allen to benefit--he is averaging 25.1 DK points per game against better defenses than he will face on Sunday.

Running Backs: Coming off a slate-breaking 51.6-DK point performance last Sunday against the Packers, Dalvin Cook is the class of his position this weekend versus the Lions, whose defense trails only the aforementioned Packers in points allowed to opposing running backs. We know that Mike Zimmer is going to cram the ball down Detroit's figurative throat, as the Vikings run the ball at the third-highest rate (49.6%) in the league, which brightens Cook's prospects even further. After Cook, both Josh Jacobs and David Montgomery are interesting options in the $6K salary range. Jacobs is the easier sell coming off a 31-carry game against the Browns; the voluminous running back has collected 18 or more touches in all-but-one game this season and should get plenty of high-value redzone looks in a game that is projected to shoot out in southern California. With only one score across the past month, David Montgomery is arguably a tougher trigger to pull, but he also has enjoyed considerable volume since Tarik Cohen tore his ACL back in Week #3. Over the past month, DMont is averaging 20 touches per game and has quietly collected 18 receptions over that same period; his bell-cow role is expanding, but his salary is still modest for the time being. Take advantage now. Lastly, DAndre Swift gets consideration against the Vikings because of his emerging RB1 role and reasonable salary. Swift's snap count continues to rise (38% to 45% to 62%) over the past three weeks and he seems to be cementing a role as RB1 in the Lions offense; at $5.0K, his salary is reasonable for his expected role and he should be expected bounce-back from last week's tough matchup against the top-ranked Indy rush defense (DVOA metric).

Wide Receivers: Without Calvin Ridley, Julio Jones collected 30 catches for 378 yards and 2 touchdowns across 3 games in 2019. With Ridley expected to miss this weekend's game with a foot injury, Jones is priced too cheaply for his implied scoring floor and should be one of the first players rostered in your cash game lineups. After Jones, both Keenan Allen and Tyler Lockett merit consideration because of their consistent output and volume-heavy roles in their respective offenses. Between them, they are averaging nearly 20 targets and over 40 DK points per game this season. Allen has scored and/or surpassed 100 receiving yards in 4 of his previous 5 games and Lockett is the most relevant Seahawk receiver this week because he will avoid the shutdown coverage of TreDavious White while running from the slot. Just below those two, Terry McLaurin is entering "matchup-proof" territory, as he seems to find a way to deliver despite consistently poor quarterback play. McLaurin has 7 or more catches and/or 80+ receiving yards in all-but-one game since Week #2; he is easily the focal point of the Football Team's offense and can easily blow past James Bradberry's (4.50-second 40-yard dash) so-called "shadow" coverage. Lastly, Jerry Jeudy is your salary-saver at the wide receiver position. The Broncos' first pick from this year's draft seems to be building a rapport with Drew Lock of late and gets a tasty matchup against the Falcons, who allow the fifth-most fantasy points to wide receivers; as moderate four-point underdogs, the Broncos could be asked to throw quite a bit in this one, which supports the case for Denver's clear WR1. SUNDAY AM UPDATE: You can probably consider the Colts' Marcus Johnson as a cash game salary-saver against the Ravens today. While Baltimore is a tough matchup, T.Y. Hilton is trending doubtful with a lingering groin injury, which should result in 6-8 targets for Marcus Johnson, whose $3K salary afford you to jam in those safer, more expensive names like Dalvin Cook and Julio Jones. Also, be aware that Keenan Allen was reportedly ill on Saturday and will need to clear a COVID test today before he can play against the Raiders. As of the time of this update, it is unclear if/when that will occur--with that game starting late in the afternoon and no clear pivots, you are advised to remove Allen from cash game consideration if we do not know his status before the early game lineup lock.

Tight Ends: If you have the excess salary, Darren Waller is a sharp play for both cash and tournament formats this weekend. Waller has nearly double the targets of any receiver on the Raiders and will avoid the Chargers' best coverage defenders on the perimeter. The Bolts have allowed a tight end to reach the endzone in five of their previous six games and only one of those tight ends was of Waller's ability (Travis Kelce). In the same game, however, you can save some salary and still feel somewhat confident of a decent scoring floor with Hunter Henry, who trails only Keenan Allen (75; 4th in NFL) on his team. Henry has been on a bit of dry spell with regards to scoring this year, having found the endzone only once in 29 receptions; over the course of his career, Henry has scored once in every 8 receptions. The volume is still there and his quarterback play is improved, so we should expect some positive scoring progression in the near-term.

Team Defenses: The Pittsburgh Steelers are the prime defense this week against the Cowboys and whomever they start at quarterback. However, DraftKings priced the Steelers up to an all-time high (for the position) of $4.9K, which takes them out of consideration for cash games. At half that price, you can nab either the Arizona Cardinals against Tua Tagovailoa or the Vikings against Chase Daniel. In Arizona, we have a defense that has collected seven or more points in three straight games and gets a matchup against a quarterback making his second NFL start; to be fair, Tagovailoa surprisingly won his debut against the Rams last week, but his role was minimized and the verdict is still out on whether he can make this Dolphins offense a contender. Going north to Minnesota, the Vikings are far from a good defense, but their lack of consistent output is baked into their $2.4K salary. Providing Matthew Stafford (COVID-19) does not start, the Vikings should be able to get after Chase Daniel for a few sacks and turnovers, enough to deliver 3x value on their modest salary. In both cases, you are saving salary with lesser defenses against unproven quarterbacks; at a position with high scoring volatility, it is the right move to enable you to spend your salary at other positions where the return on investment is much more likely.

TOURNAMENTS

Quarterbacks: In what has become his home in this space, Patrick Mahomes II is always in play for tournaments as evidenced by his 400+ passing yard and 5 touchdown performance last Sunday against the Jets. He can do it on any given Sunday, so get your exposure accordingly. After Mahomes, Kyler Murray has demonstrated upside of late, having posted 360+ passing yards and a rushing touchdown in 2 of his previous 3 contests. Murray's salary is substantial, but he has more rushing yards than Alvin Kamara, Joe Mixon, and Jonathan Taylor; only Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry, and Todd Gurley have more rushing touchdowns than Murray. If Miami is able to score points with Tua Tagovailoa under center, Murray's upside is as high as any quarterback on the slate. In Los Angeles, Justin Herbert merits consideration against the Raiders' 27th-ranked DVOA pass defense. Herbert has done everything possible to disprove naysayers who scoffed at his draft spot (sixth) in this year's NFL draft; in his 6 games as a starter, Herbert has collected 260+ yards in every game and has thrown for 15 passes (versus only 5 interceptions). Elsewhere, Matt Ryan seems to be going overlooked at home against the Broncos. He is projected to be on less than 5% of rosters and has demonstrated 30+ point upside on multiple occasions this season; with Calvin Ridley expected to miss this game, his stacking options (Julio Jones and Hayden Hurst) become more clear to boot. Lastly, in the "I hate to do it" category, Daniel Jones popped as a possible GPP selection in my model this week. Luckily, he is projected to be on ~ 1% of rosters, so we need only 3-5% exposure to go overweight on him against the Football Team; if it's possible to talk you into him, it will be based on his more recent games that saw him throw for a pair of touchdowns in each while also running for 70+ yards in 2 of his previous 3 contests.

• Sleeper: It is difficult to know what we are going to see with Jake Luton on Sunday against the Texans, but we do know that he is dirt-cheap and likely to be on few rosters due to the aforementioned lack of name recognition. Without any preseason games from which to gauge his fit for the NFL, we can only rely on draft grades, most of which seem to describe him in a vanilla fashion--not bad, not great. Nevertheless, offer up a sub-$5K quarterback and he immediately becomes attractive (exception: Ben DiNucci and Cooper Rush). As a seven-point home underdog, we will definitely get a solid look at Luton's abilities against the Texans' 28th-ranked DVOA defense. Expect to see a heavy dose of James Robinson for as long as the game is close, but Luton is going to throw the ball 30+ times, which should create plenty of opportunity for him to deliver 4x value on his salary at contrarian percent-rostered numbers; of his possible stack options, Laviska Shenault (more below) is most intriguing and the combination can be had for $9.1K, opening up all sorts of options at other positions.
• Fade: It's tough to recommend fading a quarterback who has posted 300+ yards and/or 3 passing touchdowns in every game this season, but here we are. Russell Wilson's field exposure will approach 15% by the time lineups lock on Sunday, which is too high given his hefty salary and tough opposition. To be fair, DK Metcalf is as close to matchup-proof as wide receivers get in 2020, but he is going to have his hands full with shadow coverage from TreDavious White, who has allowed only 13 receptions all season while in coverage. This will force Wilson to look elsewhere, presumably Tyler Lockett from the slot, but also lessens Wilson's scoring ceiling in the process. Do not eliminate his from your GPP portfolio altogether, but going underweight is the right call with Wilson this weekend.

Running Backs: Christian McCaffrey is tied for 12th in rushing touchdowns and has not played an NFL snap in nearly 2 months; that should serve as a reminder of just how dominant CMC can be when at 100% capacity. Entering this weekend, McCaffrey appears to be ready to go and Coach Matt Rhule has not indicated that CMC will be limited in any fashion. McCaffrey is gamescript-proof and arguably benefits from playing from behind where he acts as the Panthers' primary receiver out the backfield; he could easily finish Sunday with 20+ touches, half of which could be full-PPR receptions. In Jacksonville, James Robinson gets a plush matchup against the Texans' 27th-ranked DVOA rush defense that yielded 32- and 43-DK point games to Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry over the past month. JRob may not be at their level, but we can bet that he will get ample opportunity to lead the Jags offense rather than asking Jake Luton to do the heavy lifting in his NFL debut. In the Big D, both running backs are in play, one of whom makes a lot of sense and the the other of whom may not. James Conner certainly has the gamescript in his favor as two-touchdown road favorites and will could easily finish with multiple scores against Dallas' makeshift defense. Ezekiel Elliott, however, is as cheap as he has been in years and will be on less than 5% of rosters; his talent, alone, merits more consideration than the masses are giving him and he should be on at least 10% of your GPP lineups. Lastly, Justin Jackson makes his third straight appearance here because DraftKings refuses to raise his salary. In last week's column, he was called out as a 'sleeper' and delivered 142 all-purpose yards on 20 touches while establishing himself as the lead back over Joshua Kelley. This week, expect the Chargers to feed him again versus the Raiders' 31st-ranked DVOA defense that has allowed 3 different running backs to score multiple touchdowns in 2020. SUNDAY AM UPDATE: The Cowboys promoted a running back from their practice squad on Sunday because Zeke Elliott is dealing with a hamstring issue entering today's game against the Steelers. While I loved Elliott's percent-rostered numbers when this article was originally published, it would be irresponsible to recommend Elliott knowing that he is a candidate to get pulled early if he tweaks the hamstring and/or the game gets out of hand (which is a distinct possibility).

• Sleeper: With 18 or more touches in every game over the past month and averaging a touchdown per game over that same span, it is somewhat surprising to see Todd Gurley going overlooked in tournaments this Sunday. Gurley has achieved GPP value in two of his previous four games at this price point and should benefit from being short home favorites; likewise, Calvin Ridley's absence should also confer an extra 10-12 opportunities to other Falcons. Denver, his opponent, has been tough against the run, but not impossible--Chargers running backs compiled nearly 200 rushing yards just last week (but failed to get into the endzone).
• Fade: While we have all been waiting for the week where Chase Edmonds gets the Cardinals backfield to himself, the sad reality is that too many people share that thought. On 25% of rosters, Edmonds is simply too high for his projected fantasy output against the Dolphins. There are too many ways that things could go south for the electric playmaker to substantiate that lofty percent-rostered number; assuming he remains that popular, fade him and leverage that ownership with a similarly priced, lower popularity running back with equivalent upside (Todd Gurley and Ezekiel Elliott come to mind). SUNDAY AM UPDATE: While Edmonds is still a fade for me, add DeeJay Dallas to the list. Dallas is creeping up, in terms of popularity (~ 14-18%), but I just don't think he is worthy of that type of consideration. He scored twice last week, but averaged only ~ 2 yards per carry against the Niners; at $5.0K, give me more shares of Justin Jackson and/or DAndre Swift at that same price range.

Wide Receivers: Let the masses chase a big day from the over-rostered Chase Edmonds while you leverage that inflated popularity and roll with his teammate, DeAndre Hopkins, against the Dolphins. Hopkins will deal with a combination of Xavien Howard and Byron Jones on the perimeter, but neither can stifle Hopkins' superior athleticism. In Buffalo, Stefon Diggs is in play again this week after disappointing against the Patriots last Sunday; Diggs is a perfect stack to pair with Josh Allen and can be 'run back' with Tyler Lockett (or your favorite Seahawk) in a gamestack formation. Elsewhere, both Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen are intriguing leverage plays away from Dalvin Cook, who will be the highest-rostered player on the Week #9 slate; if Cook falters, it could mean that it was due to a Viking receiver having a big game against the Lions and your roster will have jumped past the 35+% of lineups that contain Cook's name. In the Las Vegas-Los Angeles game, there are a lot of ways to go and one of them involves stacking Justin Herbert with multiple Chargers, including Mike Williams and/or Hunter Henry, and running it back with Henry Ruggs (or Darren Waller). This game features two offenses with big-play ability and could easily surpass the 52-point Vegas total. Lastly, Preston Williams led the Dolphins in targets in Tua Tagovailoa's NFL debut; with a cheap price tag and a gamescript that favors the pass, Williams brings 4x upside on his salary at limited crowd exposure. SUNDAY AM UPDATE: Add both of Carolina's wide receivers to this list. Both D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson jumped in my model since this article went live because of how their percent-rostered numbers are dropping with each update. D.J. Moore ($5.6K) is going to be one of the sharper plays of the week, but Robby Anderson ($6.3K) should not be ignored either; both get a pristine implied gamescript chasing the Chiefs' offense for four quarters and should benefit from the return of Christian McCaffrey, who will keep linebackers from dropping back to help in coverage schemes.

• Sleeper: Coming off back-to-back stinker performances, nobody is going to be on Laviska Shenault on Sunday in any format, which could be a mistake. Prior to those disappointing games, Shenault patched together a couple of decent stat lines that would have yielded near-GPP value on this week's $4.2K salary. It's worth noting that he managed that fantasy production without finding the endzone either; that scoreless streak could change against the Texans, who have allowed eight receiving touchdowns over their previous three games and are the league's sixth friendliest defense to Shenault's position. The combination of price, upside, and low popularity is perfect for contests like the Millionaire Maker where building contrarian lineups is necessary to pull down a top 1% finish.
• Fade: It's never fun to recommend avoiding a player that is exciting to watch, but that's where we find ourselves with DK Metcalf in Week #9. Metcalf is the prototypical GPP player with a catch of 35+ yards in all-but-one game this season and touchdowns in 5 out of 7 games. That said, his salary is now the second-highest at his position, higher than names like Julio Jones, Stefon Diggs, and Tyreek Hill, all of whom have just as much upside with a higher likelihood to deliver value on their respective salaries. Metcalf will contend with TreDavious White all afternoon in shadow coverage and we should expect Russell Wilson to take the path of least resistance with Tyler Lockett, who has demonstrated an ability to carry the team on his back multiple times already this season.

Tight Ends: Averaging 21+ DK points per game over the past month, Travis Kelce will continue to live in this spot until his salary gets closer to $8K or his percent-rostered surpasses 16-18%, neither of which is true this weekend. While a bit pricey, T.J. Hockenson gets a nod as a tournament option because he could see higher-value targets with Kenny Golladay (hip) announced as 'out' for Week #9. Inside the redzone, Hockenson offers a 6'5" frame for Chase Daniel, which is substantially larger than the majority of Lions' receivers, all of whom are sub-6-feet (except for Marvin Jones at 6'2"). One of the more appealing tournament options at the position this week is Hayden Hurst, who continues to go overlooked on a weekly basis. Hurst gets a bump due to the injury to Calvin Ridley that should confer additional targets. Over the past 3 games, Hurst has collected 15 receptions for 179 yards and a score on 18 receptions. Lastly, Logan Thomas returns to this section because of his redzone prowess, reasonable salary, and low percent-rostered projections. "LT3" has seven redzone targets on the season, trailing only Terry McLaurin amongst the Football Team's receivers, and has scored in both of Kyle Allen's starts; when facing this same defense in Week #6, Thomas finished with 13.2 DK points, a number that would justify his current salary in tournament formats.

• Sleeper: Coming of a quiet week where underwhelming teammates Anthony Miller and Darnell Mooney accrued significant fantasy production for the first time all season, Jimmy Graham is going to be completely off the radar in Week #9 GPP circles. Graham is no longer the offensive juggernaut that he was earlier in his career, but he remains an excellent redzone target--he has double the number of redzone targets as the next closest Bears' receiver (Allen Robinson) and has scored in half of Chicago's games this season. The matchup against the Titans is better than average, as they have allowed four different tight ends to reach double-digit fantasy production this season despite not playing a team that features a prominent tight end. At only $3.8K and on 1-2% of rosters, Graham represents a contrarian value play with two-touchdown upside that could make the difference in large-field tournaments.
• Fade: After missing three weeks with an ankle injury, Jordan Akins is making a splash in DFS circles, approaching nearly 8% of rosters in our early projections. Sure, he is cheap at only $3.3K, but Akins' best game this season was a 11.9-DK point performance on opening weekend and he would have missed GPP value in every game he played in 2019 on his current salary with one outlier exception early in the season. Darren Fells will still capture about 40% of the team's snaps, which further clouds the mystery around Akins' popularity--he is a hard fade at this projected percent-rostered and could be considered for elimination from your GPP player pool if these numbers are maintained over the weekend.

Team Defenses: Unless some serious value opens up on Friday and Saturday, it is difficult to envision the Steelers finding themselves on 8% of tournament rosters, as is currently projected by our Devin Knotts. Certainly, the matchup is enticing against the Cowboys' third-string quarterback(s), but finding the room to pay nearly $5K for a team defense is tough to justify on a week with limited value options. Monitor the percent-rostered movement into Sunday morning, but get some shares of Pittsburgh's top-end defense if they slide closer to the 5% threshold; this is an early bet on a perfect matchup while paying up to be contrarian. Just two weeks ago, the Football Team in Washington traveled to the Meadowlands to take on the Giants and posted 14 DK points in that contest; this weekend, they get the same Giants team at home and are fairly priced at $3.4K with the defensive playmakers that they bring to the party. Rounding things out, a pair of home teams against underwhelming quarterbacks are presented as cheap flyers in Week #9. The Titans will host Nick Foles and the Bears, a team that has not mustered 24 points scored in over 6 weeks; meanwhile the Falcons, who have quietly not allowed 24 points in a month, welcome Drew Locks' 4-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio in Atlana.

• Sleeper: No team in the league has been able to shut down the Seahawks' potent offense through the midway point of 2020, but the Bills are the type of defense that could over-deliver on expectations. After starting the season 4-0, Buffalo stumbled a bit with consecutive losses to the Titans and Chiefs before recovering recently by besting AFC North foes (Jets and Patriots). Of particular interest is their loss to Kansas City, where they held Patrick Mahomes II to only 225 passing yards and the powerful Chiefs offense to a 26 points (2nd lowest on the season for KC). As discussed earlier in the article, one of the Seahawks' best weapons, DK Metcalf, will contend with TreDavious White, which leaves Seattle with a combination of Tyler Lockett, DeeJay Dallas, David Moore, and Greg Olsen to post big points against Buffalo. Lockett will get his production, but the others are more subject to disappointing performances--go overweight on Buffalo at home and capitalize on the personnel mismatches described.
• Fade: Given the combination of a $3.1K salary, presence on 12% of rosters, and 28th overall DVOA ranking, the recommendation is to fade the Texans defense this Sunday. Yes, J.J. Watt has a tremendous matchup against Jake Luton, but this defense is averaging 2.6 DK points per game and has scored more than 4 DK points only once all season. Let the masses chase mistakes from the unproven quarterback while you recognize the volatility of scoring at the position and diversify away from an overrated, over-rostered defense.

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