Photo: Joe Nicholson, USA Today Sports

For the uninitiated, playing daily games on DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. Footballguys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “Tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on DraftKings and make value-based recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments.

Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.

TIPS AND PICKS

Let's take a deeper look into some of the players who I will be targeting for my cash game and tournament rosters this weekend. A short summary follows each respective table to fill in the gaps that led to the respective recommendations; that text represents only an overview of the methodology and rationale that goes into each recommendation. If you have questions about any of the recommendations or the process that led to them, please email me at john.lee@footballguys.com.

CASH GAMES

Quarterbacks: Having delivered 4 consecutive games above 25-DK points, Ryan Fitzpatrick is this week's cash game quarterback at only $5.9K against the Jets. The matchup is pristine against the league's 31st-ranked DVOA pass defense, one that allowed 380 passing yards just last Sunday to Kyler Murray. To help bolster his floor, Fitzmagic has been doing it on the ground (for a 37-year old quarterback)--he has rushed for an average of 26 yards this season and has a pair of rushing touchdowns to boot. And, if you are wondering, Fitzpatrick makes for a solid play in tournament formats, as well. If slotting Fitzpatrick into your cash games lineups feels, well, wrong, Cam Newton is the next man up at home against the Denver Broncos. Newton makes his return after a positive COVID test that unfortunately caused him to miss last week's showdown against the Chiefs. The matchup against the 10th-ranked Broncos DVOA defense appears to be suboptimal, but closer inspection shows that Denver has been allowed no less than 20 DK points to all quarterbacks they have faced this season. With an extra week of rest and a point to prove after an embarrassing loss to the Chiefs, look for Cam to steamroll the Broncos and easily collect the requisite 20-DK points he will need to justify his place in your cash game lineups.

Running Backs: The cash game build this week will be salary-heavy at the running back position. There are three solid choices in the low-$7K range including Derrick Henry, Alexander Mattison, and Mike Davis. Of those options, Henry and Mattison top the list because of their teams' respective commitment to the run and defensive matchups. Henry is coming off what could be his lightest workload of the season ("only" 20 touches) and gets a Texans defense that has allowed 100+ rushing yards in 60% of their games thus far. Mattison, filling in for Dalvin Cook (groin), is arguably the best running back on 75% of NFL rosters and will get a full bevy of snaps against the Falcons, who are allowing an average of 30.0-DK points per game to his position to this point in the season. Mike Davis is a tertiary option against the Bears and should be considered given his substantial role in the passing game (30 receptions in the past month). Across from Davis (and $1.2K cheaper) is David Montgomery, whose role was enhanced when Tarik Cohen was lost for the season with an ACL injury. Since Cohen went down, DMont has collected 10 receptions across a pair of games; as a reference point, Montgomery had 25 receptions in the entire year of 2019. The matchup against Carolina's sieve of a defense is stellar--no team in the league has allowed more fantasy points to opposing running backs than the Panthers.

Wide Receivers: Because you will be likely "spending up" at running back, you will need to find salary savings at other positions. Unfortunately, value is tough to come by this week with limited unexpected injuries and/or COVID-related issues. Of the possibilities, Jeff Smith is intriguing in both cash and tournament formats against the Dolphins. Smith has run 95% and 99% of the Jets' offensive snaps since being activated from the IR in early October. He is coming off a disappointing 3/23/0 stat line against the Cardinals, but we would be remiss to ignore the fact that he has compiled 20 targets in 2 weeks and was the leading target receiver in Joe Flacco's season-debut as a starter last Sunday. At the other end of the spectrum, Adam Thielen is the chalk option you want at $7.3K. Thielen has eight or more targets in all-but-one game this season and double-digits targets across his last two games. He gets a home matchup against the league's 30th-ranked DVOA pass defense and is on the team with the highest implied team total on the Vegas boards (on the main slate). Elsewhere, a trio of solid cash game options reside in the ~ $6K area: Kenny Golladay, Terry McLaurin, and A.J. Brown. Golladay gets a soft matchup against the Jaguars, who yielded Brandin Cooks' breakout game (8/161/1) last weekend. McLaurin will have his hands full with coverage from James Bradberry, but McLaurin's speed and skillset will continue to make him relevant on a weekly basis, including this one where the Football Team has a legitimate chance for their first win since early September. Lastly, A.J. Brown looked excellent in his return against the Bills' stellar coverage team on Tuesday night. Brown finished with a 7/82/1 stat line and is going to present legitimate matchup issues for Houston's Bradley Roby, who is allowing a passer rating of 114 when targeted this season.

Tight Ends: As discussed in this week's edition of The Power Grid, the tight end position is an absolute wasteland for DFS purposes. George Kittle, Darren Waller, and Travis Kelce are all off the main slate and the most prominent names available are Mark Andrews and Zach Ertz. Of the pricey options, Ertz is the most likely to deliver 3x value on his salary. Ertz is coming off his worst game in over five years (1/6/0 on six targets), but could still land on 12-15% of tournament lineups, which is a testament to how barren the position is this weekend. On paper, the matchup against the Ravens is intimidating, but a closer look tells us that Baltimore has allowed four different tight ends to reach double-digit fantasy points this season and only one of those tight ends (Travis Kelce) is of a similar caliber to Zach Ertz, in terms of skill and usage. If you want to punt the position entirely (and you might), Irv Smith is worth consideration against the Falcons, who have allowed seven touchdowns to tight ends this season. Coming into the season, Smith was the heir-apparent to Kyle Rudolph, but fell off fantasy radars when he collected two receptions across the first month of the season. He had a resurgence last week against the Seahawks when he finished with a 4/64/0 stat line and 31 routes run, a marked improvement over his previous 4 games. Our David Dodds has Smith currently projected to score 6.0 DK points, which is not quite the 3x multiplier you will need to justify his presence in your cash games lineups, but the opportunity cost is low and you should consider spending the savings at positions where the usage and floor are more certain.

Team Defenses: Continuing the theme from the previous sentence around opportunity cost and floor projections, the recommendation is to save salary at defense in your cash games this Sunday. Two admittedly "bad" defenses are recommended, but they both face quarterbacks with issues of their own. The Dolphins take on Joe Flacco and a gutted Jets offense that released their best player (LeVeon Bell) earlier this week. Flacco took 3 sacks and was the first quarterback this season unable to collect 200 passing yards against the Cardinals last Sunday. For their part, the Dolphins have posted 12.0-DK points in 2 of their previous 3 contests and 11 sacks across that period of time. Dropping down in salary, the Bengals are a punt option on the road against Philip Rivers' shadow of himself. The (massive) dropoff in Rivers' play was on full display last weekend against the Browns when he was unable to get anything going for four full quarters and threw a pair of interceptions (versus no touchdowns) in the process. The Bengals are no defensive juggernaut, but if they can get after (sack) Rivers a few times and collect a turnover or two, that will be all that they need to reach 3x value on their $2.1K salary.

TOURNAMENTS

Quarterbacks: There is not much justification needed to nominate a pair of future Hall-of-Fame quarterbacks in Vegas' highest-totaled game of the week for GPP consideration. Both Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady should be part of your tournament strategy on Sunday in a "Bay of Pigs" game that surprisingly has each of them projected to be on less than 5% of GPP rosters. Rodgers has been without his best weapon (Davante Adams) for several weeks and Brady has not had both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin at 100% for most of the season; both situations will reverse on Sunday and few quarterbacks have as much upside as Rodgers and Brady as a result. In a similar theme to Brady, Matt Ryan gets both of his primary receivers at 100% for the first time in nearly a month and an implied gamescript that favors plenty of passing; earmark Ryan for 4-8% of your GPP portfolio and "run it back" with either Alexander Mattison or your favorite Viking on the same rosters. Elsewhere, Daniel Jones is a personal favorite tournament option against Washington on Sunday. Jones is coming off a disappointing performance against Dallas, a team that has been beaten by nearly every quarterback (save Jones) this season and recency bias will be in full effect as a result. Short memories win tournaments in DFS and Jones' projections merit consideration far above where we currently project his percent-rostered numbers. As for the matchup, Washington has allowed every opposing quarterback to score at least twice in every game this season and are allowing the fifth-most DK points per game to the position. Lastly, Joe Flacco is a deep flyer who can be paired with Jeff Smith for a total of $8.1K and run back with Myles Gasking for another $5.4K, which leaves nearly 80% of your salary to spend up on those expensive running backs in good spots.

• Sleeper: Coming off a 6.32-fantasy point stinker against the Ravens' stout defense, Joe Burrow is going overlooked this weekend in DFS circles. Prior to last Sunday's letdown, the rookie posted 3 consecutive 300-yard games and averaged 4x this week's salary across that span. The matchup against the Colts' stingy zone defense (1st DVOA against the pass) is certainly daunting, but the Colts secondary has yet to be tested by an above-average quarterback this season. With Tyler Boyd catapulting into the WR1 role and Tee Higgins impressing as a rookie, Burrow brings 4x upside to your roster at extremely low popularity.
• Fade: This week's darling at quarterback, Matthew Stafford has a plush matchup against the Jaguars' last-ranked DVOA pass defense. Jacksonville has allowed opposing passers to average nearly 23 DK points per game, which is nearly 4x Stafford's salary in Week #6. Despite the factors in his favor, the suggestion is to go light on Stafford with the understanding that the Lions could go run-heavy at some point in the game against the Jags who have allowed big games on the ground to Joe Mixon (45 DK points) and Nyheim Hines (27 DK points) thus far this season. Avoiding Stafford and the chalk-option, Kenny Golladay (see below), in tournaments will confer the type of roster uniqueness you will need to pull down a top 1% finish.

Running Backs: This author was surprised to see both Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams flagged as solid GPP selections when crunching data into the weekend. Jones is the more comfortable selection, having demonstrated three-touchdown upside already this season against the Lions in Week #2, but Williams is coming off a 16-touch game last week (including 8 receptions) and can be had for close to 50% of Jones' asking price. Their sledding on Sunday should be a bit easier than normal against the Bucs, who lost their best run-stopper in Vita Vea (ankle), who was ranked 18th (of 212) in ProFootballFocus' run stop percentage. In Indy, Joe Mixon remains the focal point of the Bengals offense and merits weekly consideration for tournaments based on his usage alone. Mixon is coming off back-to-back 30-touch games, one of which was a 27-3 drubbing by the Ravens; this tells us that Mixon is gamescript-proof and warrants consideration, particularly if he continues to find himself on < 5% of tournament rosters when lineups lock on Sunday. Rounding things out, both running backs in the Giants-Football Team game are in play for tournaments. Antonio Gibson gets a nice spot against a Giants' front seven that has allowed a pair of touchdowns to opposing running backs in two of their previous three games. Meanwhile, Devonta Freeman (as predicted here last week) solidified himself as the RB1 in the Giants backfield and delivered tournament value against the Cowboys last Sunday; Freeman's price jumped only $300 and his matchup is unimposing against Washington, who have allowed opposing running backs to compile 22+ DK points in 2 of their previous 3 contests.

• Sleeper: Akin to what was described above surrounding Jamaal Williams' usage in Green Bay's backfield, Nyheim Hines is a tough trigger to pull in DFS contests, but he merits consideration in large-field GPPs. Hines is likely to be on less than 1% of rosters by lineup lock on Sunday due to his most recent five-touch performance against the Browns. If you were unfortunate enough to watch that game, however, the Colts offense stumbled throughout and never got into any type of groove, which limited all Colts' skill players' opportunities (Jonathan Taylor only saw 14 touches). In the two games prior to last week's anomaly, Hines captured a dozen touches in each, including the coveted third-down (passing) role out of the backfield. Hines has 14 redzone touches (versus 20 for the aforementioned Taylor) and has displayed GPP upside this season with a 27-DK point performance back in Week #1.
• Fade: Appearing in this spot for the second week in a row, James Robinson's popularity in the DFS world does not align with his expected fantasy performance. JRob went off in 19.1% of MillyMaker lineups at a $6.7K price point and delivered only 11.0 points against the Texans. This week, Robinson is $100 more expensive and has a similarly appealing matchup against the league's 31st-ranked DVOA rush defense, but will again be in too many opponents' lineups to substantiate being in yours. If you are tempted to slot JRob into your tournament lineups, just go right above (Kareem Hunt) or below (Miles Sanders, Jonathan Taylor) his price point and roster somebody else with better points-per-dollar upside.

Wide Receivers: This feels like a week where the chalk at wide receiver could under-deliver for tournaments, which is why you will see a series of sub-10% names in this section. First, Davante Adams makes his return against the Buccaneers after missing three weeks (two games plus a bye) with a hamstring issue. In his only full game this season, Adams collected 17 targets en route to a 14/156/2 stat line against the Vikings in Week #1. This week, Allen Lazard (abdominals) will watch from the sidelines, which should funnel even more activity from Aaron Rodgers to Adams. One more reason to pay for Adams' $8K salary? It will force you towards a different roster build from the masses, who will assuredly be slotting in Derrick Henry and Alexander Mattison first and then realizing that they cannot afford Adams; by doing the opposite, you will force you towards cheaper, lesser-rostered running back options like those discussed in the previous section. In the mid-$6K range, both Will Fuller and JuJu Smith-Schuster are being egregiously overlooked despite their roles and personnel matchups. Fuller has scored a touchdown and/or collected 100 receiving yards in every game this season, yet is being ignored for unknown reasons; he will match up at least 50% of the time against Malcolm Butler, but Butler has struggled in coverage this season (currently ranked 46th of 57 qualifiers on PFF) and should continue to stumble against Fuller. Smith-Schuster is basking in the warm shadow of stablemate Chase Claypool's four-touchdown anomaly last Sunday. With Diontae Johnson (back) announced as "out," expect the masses to chase Chase's (see what I did there?) big day, which will further diffuse JuJu's percent-rostered numbers. Go overweight with JuJu and fade Claypool--it's the right decision regardless of outcome. A pair of WR1's in the Cinci-Indy game make their way into this section, as well. Tyler Boyd and T.Y. Hilton are both modestly priced and are well ahead of their teammates in team marketshare of their respective offenses. Boyd has only a single score on the season despite leading the team in targets (40) and receptions (32); his matchup against Indy's defense is less than optimal, but the implied gamescript favors passing and Boyd is the Bengals' first option. As for Hilton, he finally saw double-digit targets last week for the first time since Philip Rivers took over at quarterback. Despite Twitter's claims that Hilton is "washed up," Hilton still looks the part on the field and has suffered moreso from poor quarterback play than an aging skillset; with last week as our most recent data point, perhaps Rivers has finally recognized that Hilton is his best receiver and will continue to target him accordingly? Lastly, both NKeal Harry and Curtis Samuel stood out as cheap flyers to pair with those more popular expensive running backs referenced in previous sections. If you are thinking about rolling out a Mattison-Henry core, you are going to need to differentiate elsewhere and names like NKeal Harry and/or Curtis Samuel will accomplish that feat. Harry gets a soft matchup against the league's fourth-friendliest defense to his position (DK points per game), as well as the return of Cam Newton, who targeted him in the redzone in every game this season; Samuel will assuredly raise eyeballs, but his dual-usage (RB/WR), cheap price, and low percent-rostered make him a super-sneaky leverage play against the ~ 20% of rosters that will contain either Robby Anderson or D.J. Moore.

• Sleeper: Coming off back-to-back games with a touchdown, including last week's 10/152/1 stat line, Travis Fulgham is going to garner all the attention out of the Eagles' wide receiver corps on Sunday. Meanwhile, Greg Ward will be entirely forgotten by the DFS community despite being the most senior (active) wide receiver on the team and also scoring twice across the team's previous three contests. To be fair, the matchup for all Eagles receivers is intimidating against the Ravens' 3rd-ranked DVOA defense, but the gamescript, price, and Vegas projections all advocate getting a piece of the Eagles' passing game. Of the logical options, Zach Ertz (this week's TnP coverboy) makes a lot of sense, but sleeping on Greg Ward could be a mistake.
• Fade: If Kenny Golladay ends on 23% of tournament rosters on Sunday, it will have been too high for the same reasons outlined (above) with Matthew Stafford. This is not an indemnification of Golladay's talent or role on the team, but we would be remiss to ignore the fact that he has yet to pass 70 receiving yards on the season and has surpassed 100 receiving yards only once since the mid-point of the 2019 season. Given the tendency of the Lions to spread the ball around (eight different players have scored in 2020), you are better off going with a less popular option in this price range--Terry McLaurin, DeVante Parker, and Darius Slayton are all better options.

Tight Ends: As discussed earlier in the article, there is not much to like at the tight end position this weekend. As a result, you are encouraged to diversify your player pool to accommodate strong feelings at other positions. Of the available options, Zach Ertz (cash game section, above) is probably the strongest GPP value for reasons already discussed. After Ertz, give consideration to Eric Ebron, who faces a Cleveland team that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. For his part, Ebron has posted 40+ yards in 3 consecutive games and 5 targets in each of the Steelers' previous 2 contests. Elsewhere, you can certainly give consideration to Mark Andrews against the Eagles, who have allowed both George Kittle and Tyler Higbee to explode for big games against them to this point in the season. Around the $5K range, both Jonnu Smith and Evan Engram are also options. Jonnu has quietly posted five touchdowns across four games while Engram gets an opportunity to break out of his 2020 slump against Washington, another team that has struggled to contain the tight end position.

• Sleeper: Since returning from a calf injury that saw him spend the first three weeks of the season on IR, Trey Burton has been making his presence felt amongst the Colts tight ends. Both Mo Alie-Cox and Jack Doyle held down the tight end responsibilities in his absence, but Burton's return in Week #4 demonstrated that he is the preferred receiver from that crew. Burton is now running more routes than MAC and Doyle and has seven receptions since returning to action versus two, combined, for his stablemates. With Alie-Cox appearing as 'out' on Friday's injury report (knee), Burton could be asked to do even more against a Bengals defense that has allowed 14 or more DK points in 60% of their games this season.
• Fade: Having only surpassed 14 points once this season, it is unclear why Mike Gesicki is projected to be this week's most popular tight end, particularly when taking into account his $5.5K salary. The dearth of viable options is probably the best answer to that question, but Gesicki is not the right solution amongst the choices available. Outside of an outlier 30-DK point performance in Week #2 against the Bills, Gesicki has failed to muster more than 30 yards receiving on 3 of 4 occasions this season. This is one of the easier fades on the slate--maximize your total exposure at no more than 3-4% of your GPP portfolio.

Team Defenses: When under pressure this season, Baker Mayfield ranks 20th out of 28 qualifying quarterbacks with a 30.9 passer rating that is only higher than Kyler Murray (24.2). Enter the Steelers, whose top-ranked pass rush (ProFootballFocus) is leading to a league-high five sacks per game. This is a tough spot for Mayfield and the Steelers are not cheap, but are probably worth finding themselves within 6-10% of your GPP portfolio. In Washington, almost nobody will have the Giants' 16th-ranked DVOA defense in their lineups, but with Kyle Allen under center, there is always a possibility of an interception that could lead to a defensive score; remember that Allen throw 16 interceptions versus 17 touchdowns as the starter in Carolina just last year. Elsewhere, you might consider both the Carolina Panthers and New York Jets as contrarian options against quarterbacks prone to blow up from time to time. Carolina gets Nick Foles at home and the Jets will be on the road against Ryan Fitzpatrick; neither are stellar defenses, but the possibility of defensive scores is always higher against quarterbacks who have a tendency to get sloppy, which is a characteristic that both Fitzpatrick and Foles share.

• Sleeper: Making a repeat appearance in this spot, the Washington Football team is going to be completely overlooked by the masses because of their $3.3K price tag. But lest we forget that the Football Team has invested heavily in their defense with draft picks in recent years and they will face off against Daniel Jones, who is averaging less than 200 passing yards per game over his past 3 games and has not thrown a touchdown in a month. Chase Young and company could surprise in this spot and would do so on about 1% of rosters.
• Fade: Yes, the Falcons fired Dan Quinn this week. Yes, the Falcons are winless. Yes, the Vikings defense is cheap. With those factors out of the way, let's not forget that the Falcons offense is averaging 24.4 points per game and has not been 100% healthy in nearly a month. This Sunday, both Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley are reported to be at full-capacity, which should elevate that offense to levels not seen in recent weeks. Meanwhile, Todd Gurley is coming off his first 100-yard game of the season and will get a chance to make it 2-in-a-row against Minnesota's 27th-ranked DVOA rush defense. If you need to save salary at defense, both the Jets and Bengals are better options than Minnesota.

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