The notion of who to target in an auction draft takes on a much different meaning than it does in a serpentine format. For traditional drafts, you are locked into a certain pool of players based on where you are picking, and that pool shrinks in a fashion that greatly limits your options. But in an auction, you can do so much more with the targets you enter a draft with. Your strategy for when you nominate your targets, how you can massage your budget to acquire the players you want, and the unpredictable run on positions all make it possible to grab a larger share of your targets than you can in a traditional draft.
When talking about auction targets it is natural to think of them as being low-cost options. But that isn’t necessarily the case. Targets are going to be lower-cost options than the players around them in the fantasy rankings. So targets can be high, moderate, or low priced players. But they become targets because you can hopefully acquire them cheaper than similar players in the same tier. The way you make your roster a championship roster is to pay the market price for the guys you really want, but then get deals on strong productive players that the rest of the room is fading. It’s a tall task, but that’s why you’re here.
The quarterback and tight end positions are similar in an auction room in that most leagues only require one of them to be in a starting lineup. In that regard, these two positions are much easier to navigate for true bargain hunting. You can often wait and be one of the last ones to get a starter at these positions and see prices truly bottom out when others don’t want to draft a backup or don’t want to pay for a starter quality player when they already have one on their team. Nevertheless, there are some targets that auction drafters should zero in on at all price levels for the combination of their price and upside in 2020 drafts.
QUARTERBACKS
Elite Targets
Deshaun Watson – Everyone knows Watson’s upside because his bonkers rookie season is seared into the collective fantasy psyche. But for the first time since then, he is looking like he could be a draft-day value. While players chase Patrick Mahomes II and Lamar Jackson, and to a lesser extent Dak Prescott and Kyler Murray, take the discount on Watson. Since he lost DeAndre Hopkins this offseason there is likely to be a small price break on Watson as compared to previous years, and his upside remains intact with an explosive and professional corps of wide receiver talent at his disposal. Nominate Watson before the other four come off the board and see if you can grab him cheaper than he should go.
Matt Ryan – Ryan threw the ball a lot in 2019. He’s going to throw the ball a lot in 2020. The coaching staff and wide receiver corps remain intact, and the offense as a whole should get better from adding a stronger running back to take over for Devonta Freeman. Ryan’s TD rate was only 4.2% last year so that has room to improve and don’t forget he missed 1.5 games while still throwing 26 touchdowns. Ryan is constantly underrated in fantasy circles and 30 touchdowns with a top-three fantasy finish is not a crazy scenario. Ryan should be relatively cheap for the upside he brings.
Middle Tier Targets
Matthew Stafford – Before Stafford’s injury he was rolling up some big fantasy games and was the QB6 when he went to the sidelines. It’s hard to find that kind of upside in the middle tiers, but that’s what Stafford brings. He has plenty of talent on offense, and with the glut of quality fantasy quarterbacks, it is very possible Stafford will be largely ignored. Securing him cheaply should be possible.
Jared Goff – The Rams threw the ball more than anyone in the league in 2019. The problem for Goff is that he only converted his throws to a touchdown 3.5% of the time. After posting 5.7 and 5.9% rates the previous two years for Sean McVay, Goff should see a healthy regression closer to 5.0% in 2020. The fantasy community is generally not excited about Goff and the way he disappointed last year so take advantage of the recency bias to try and grab Goff cheaply early on in the auction. If you don’t get him early then stall as long as you can and the general attitude towards him may allow you to snag him very late for pennies on the dollar. He’s unlikely to be a top target for many drafters.
Ben Roethlisberger – In his last full season, the Steelers threw the ball a whopping 675 times. Although the Steelers defense is improved from 2018, the Steelers clearly like to let him throw the ball. He has two exciting young prospects, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and a pair of good receiving tight ends. His price should be very cheap because of the uncertainty around this offense and his health. Take the discount, and if he throws the ball 600 times, he’ll be a very good quarterback option.
Bargain Shopping
Teddy Bridgewater – The pieces are all there for Bridgewater, but he certainly faces some obstacles to crack the top 12 at the position. That shouldn’t stop you from trying to steal him cheaply and see if he can fulfill his potential. Bridgewater is an accurate quarterback, he has an offensive-minded coach, and he has a truly elite set of weapons. On top of all that it looks like the Panthers defense will be quite poor as well. The hype train seems to be picking up steam for Bridgewater, but if he’s nominated at the right time he’ll be affordable. He’s the type of player that should be kept for the end of auctions to possibly get him for $1-$3. Paying too much negates the value of taking the risk, so get him cheaply and pair him with another cheap option.
Gardner Minshew – Despite losing his job to Nick Foles after Foles returned from injury, Minshew put up some impressive numbers for a rookie. He was a sneaky rushing threat with 344 rushing yards even though he failed to convert a single rushing score. With the amount of running he will do, it’s likely he’ll tack on several rushing scores in 2020. Minshew, like Bridgewater, will also play with a poor defense on the other side of the ball. Try to pair Minshew and Bridgewater together if roster space allows. The good thing about Minshew is that he has less buzz than Bridgewater does so it is possible to nominate Minshew early on and get him very cheap. If not, it’s completely reasonable to wait on him until everyone has their quarterbacks in place and you stand a good chance of getting him for the minimum $1 bid.
The goal of quarterback bargain shopping in an auction is that you should be pushing the money saved at quarterback towards other top options at other positions. The best strategy would be to try and grab one of the Middle Tier targets first, but if they don’t go cheaply enough then simply play the waiting game for Bridgewater or Minshew. Chasing the Elite options is fine, but quarterback really should be the spot where you try to bank savings by getting top-12 production and talent on the cheap.
TIGHT ENDS
The tight end landscape in 2020 is much the same as it was in 2019, only with the addition of Mark Andrews to the conversation of the top tier or two that stands apart from the rest. The play at tight end in an auction looks a little different than the one at quarterback because after the top four guys are off the board it doesn’t look like the middle tier holds enough value to demand that you spend for one of them. Instead, if you don’t grab one of Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Mark Andrews, or Zach Ertz, just wait until other owners feel like they have what they want at the position and take one or two of the myriad of players who are in a position to take a step forward with increased opportunity.
Keep in mind that in an auction the quarterback and tight end positions are treated differently than the running back and wide receiver spots. Allowing owners to fill their starting spots and even some teams to grab backups, is the way to see the market crater in time for you to get a couple of bargain-basement deals on guys who likely wouldn’t go that cheap when people still needed the spot filled. Additionally, plenty of leagues don’t require backups at these positions so fantasy teams taking just one of each leaves a deep pool of players to choose from. Here are some tight ends that can finish off your auction squad with strength.
Elite Targets
Zach Ertz – The narrative around the Eagles tight end situation continues to consistently beat the drum for Goedert while downplaying the reality of what Philadelphia is doing. They picked up Ertz’s option for 2021 already and are in negotiations to extend his deal yet again. He isn’t going anywhere. If you start Ertz there will likely be games where it is frustrating to watch Goedert vulture some production, but the fact is that Ertz was excellent for fantasy purposes yet again in 2019, finishing as the TE4. If you’re going to attempt to get a good option at tight end there isn’t likely to be a huge discount on any of the top four guys, but Ertz is the only one who’s lack of buzz has pushed his price down. If you’re targeting Ertz you should nominate him before Kelce and Kittle are put up for nomination. If those two (and Andrews) are rostered first, not only will it set the market and hurt the value for Ertz, but owners wanting a top tight end may lose out on the elite options and then “settle” for Ertz thereby pushing his price up artificially.
Middle Tier Targets
Hayden Hurst – Everything has trended positive for Hurst this offseason. He switched teams to the Atlanta Falcons where Austin Hooper vacated 97 targets and the tight end room is Hurst’s from the start. The Falcons have an offensive coordinator who liberally uses the position, and Atlanta throws the ball at a prodigious rate. As drafts have continued during the summer Hurst’s ADP has risen slowly but steadily. By the time drafts roll around in August he may no longer be a viable target, but it’s worth a look, and therefore a nomination, in a great situation for production.
T.J. Hockenson – It isn’t often that rookie tight ends make a real impression for fantasy purposes, but Hockenson showed real promise before getting injured near the end of the season and missing the final 4 games. For Hockenson backers it was tough to see as he garnered a whopping 11 targets in his final game before going down for the year. The takeaway, however, is that the Lions liked him enough to feature him, as well as to go to trust him near the goal line. He garnered a solid four targets inside the 10-yard line, and just missed a few scores that would’ve changed the narrative on his season. Again, rookies come on slow and Detroit’s use of him, and his promising early production, means he’s a great target to try and snag for the possible upside. He does carry a healthy amount of risk, however, so it is best to pair him with another middle-tier or bargain shopping option.
Austin Hooper – The fantasy community is a bit traumatized by how poorly the Browns offense performed in 2019 and you can use that to your advantage. But they added a stud offensive lineman, a strong offensive coach, and a difference-maker at tight end. Hooper’s ADP, quite the opposite of Hurst’s, has now fallen out of the top 12 at the position and that’s how you know you can begin to see some value in an auction. It is possible someone is still high on him from his 2019 season, but for now, the attitude points to people not quite trusting Hooper’s spot. That is how you try and steal top talent at a discount.
Dallas Goedert – How is it possible that Ertz and Goedert are both targets? Well, Goedert finished 2019 as the TE10 on the season and yet somehow finds his ADP in the mid-TE2 range. No, Ertz isn’t going anywhere, but that doesn’t mean Goedert doesn’t have tremendous value. Ertz does have some history with injury and that fact alone makes Goedert a monster hold if he takes over the number one job. But beyond that, the Eagles wide receiver corps is still not very strong and this likely makes their tight ends to be busier than they would on another team with better options. Jalen Reagor is a fine addition, but other than that Philadelphia failed to do much else to bolster their situation. DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffrey are hanging on, but they are another year older and still their same injury-prone selves. Goedert has some buzz, but on the other hand, nobody is too keen on spending a lot of money on a guy who is clearly the backup. Use that to grab Goedert at the end of the draft cheaper than he should be.
Bargain Shopping
Eric Ebron – His talent, and upside, was on display quite often in Indianapolis. The Steelers are clearly trying to find that receiving threat in the middle of the field as they traded for Vance McDonald a few years back, and now have signed Ebron. McDonald has been a disappointment, but Ebron has a much better track record of NFL production and he’s going cheaply enough that it’s possible his double-digit touchdown upside can be had for just a couple dollars if you wait long enough.
Jack Doyle – Nobody gets excited about Jack Doyle. It’s as simple as that. But Ebron is now gone, and Philip Rivers is in town. Both of those factors make Doyle more attractive, and his complete vanilla reputation means he is the perfect auction target. He should have a reasonable floor if you want to pair him with a more exciting prospect like Hockenson or Ebron with more upside.
Chris Herndon – It is a big year for Herndon to prove he can produce like people think he can. After getting suspended and then hurt last year he lost the entire season. But anyone who has watched Herndon knows his talent leaps off the page. Ryan Griffin’s production in the middle of last year is tantalizing for what Herndon could do with the same opportunity. This cuts both ways, unfortunately, and means that if Herndon doesn’t blow away the coaching staff he could end up in a platoon with Griffin. This is a high risk, high upside play, but Herndon should be a cheap option if you wait until the end of the draft.
Gerald Everett – The 2020 offseason chatter about tight ends seems to be all about Tyler Higbee and his incredible finish to last year. This has Everett lacking any draft day attention. The thing is, nobody in Los Angeles has said that Higbee is now the starter, or even that he’ll relegate Everett to the bench. Over the second half of the season, the Rams used a lot of two-tight end sets, and if that continues it is very possible that Everett picks up where he left off last year before he was injured. Everett should only cost you a dollar, and you’ll know right away if he’s going to pan out. If he doesn’t and has truly lost his job to Higbee then it’s an easy drop to the waiver wire.
Auction targets require you to be able to read the room, and the whole fantasy community, in order to figure out how to find value as you move through the draft. The main goal, however, is to remember that you win your leagues by getting deals on some of these targets while paying market value for the truly top tier, sought after players. If you pair both of those together that’s how you end up pushing your auction draft results over the top and making a run at a championship.
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