Pick-a-Player: Dalvin Cook, Travis Kelce, or Michael Thomas

Photo: Jeff Curry, USA Today Sports

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This article is about a 13-minute read.

The premise of a Pick-a-Player question is as follows:

• Three comparable players are available.
• The draft is at a stage where these players are usually drafted.
• You can take one of them or pass on all three for someone else.

Every few days, we ask a question of three groups of people -- the Footballguys staff, the great people following the Footballguys Facebook page, and the active members of our Shark Pool message board. If you'd like to answer a future Pick-a-Player question, there will be another one every few days from now through most of August. Plus, there is a lot of other content there as well. Follow the Facebook page and/or join the Shark Pool, and you can take part in the great discussions happening every day.

The Footballguys Players Championships (FPC) has a grand prize of $500,000. It also has a unique scoring system. It's PPR with tight ends get 1.5 points for every reception (all other positions get the standard single point for a catch).

So, it's the 1.05 pick in an FPC draft. Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, and Alvin Kamara were the first four picks. Would you take Dalvin Cook, Travis Kelce, or Michael Thomas? Or would you pass on all three?

Starting Lineup:

• 1 quarterback
• 2 running backs
• 2 wide receivers
• 1 tight end
• 2 flex (RB/WR/TE)
• 1 kicker
• 1 defense

The Results

And the winner is -- mostly Thomas with a splash of Kelce! See the very diverse percentages below.

Comments from the Staff

Jason Wood

In FPC, Travis Kelce would be the pick, for me. In fact, he would easily be my pick over Alvin Kamara at 1.04 (as would Michael Thomas). That's to say nothing of Michael Thomas, who would be my choice at 1.06. Dalvin Cook is being overdrafted. Full stop. Yes, I know he reported to camp but this is a guy with not one, not two, but three shoulder surgeries already, plus bad knees, plus a bunch of other injuries throughout his collegiate and pro careers. I don't understand why he's lumped in with the other elite players given his enhanced risks.

Jeff Haseley

It's difficult to not select Travis Kelce here. I agree with Jason. In tight end premium leagues, only Michael Thomas and his incredible 149-catch season finished higher than Travis Kelce when factoring in wide receivers and tight ends in FPC format. And that was with only six touchdowns last year. A positive touchdown regression is likely coming. Another reason to target him at 1.05 in this format is that he is super-consistent in the Patrick Mahomes II-led offense. He had only one game last year where he finished outside of the Top 15 in weekly scoring among tight ends, keeping in mind he only scored six times. He had a staggering 11 Top 10 weeks in 2019 and 23 Top 10 weeks in the last 32 games.

Michael Thomas will probably not come close to 149 catches again this season, but even if he did the dominance over other tight ends, if Kelce was your pick, would be too much to ignore. The tight end position, especially in FPC format is one you want to exploit due to the scarcity of elite performers at the position. Having Kelce in your tight end roster arsenal would go a lot further than having Michael Thomas in your wide receiver roster arsenal.

Dan Hindery

I would take Michael Thomas here. He outscored Kelce by 70 points last year (375 to 305) in this format even with Kelce getting the extra 0.5 for every reception. I understand the argument Thomas is unlikely to repeat his historically-great 2019 performance but he doesn't have to. Even if Thomas' production falls 10-20%, he is still likely to outscore Kelce.

I remain unconvinced by many of the arguments as to why Thomas is going to see a big dip in targets in 2020. Over the last two seasons, he has averaged 9.4 yards per target, had a catch rate of 82.5%, and picked up a first down on 53% of his targets. Those are elite numbers. When someone is so consistently making plays, coming through in the clutch, and keeping the chains moving, the quarterback is going to keep feeding him.

It is also worth noting that everyone doing full projections for Footballguys (David Dodds, Jason Wood, Maurile Tremblay, and Bob Henry) has Thomas outscoring Kelce in the FFPC/FPC format.

Chad Parsons

I am not a big Dalvin Cook fan and I think mid-round receivers are quality values this year specifically. Therefore, I will side with Travis Kelce considering the premium scoring, his profile of production, and the situation in Kansas City paired with Patrick Mahomes II. Kelce also has some positive regression to his 2020 projection for touchdowns considering his strong goal line and red zone usage last year, but a sagging touchdown rate on said targets.

Jeff Pasquino

There's no question that this pick has to be Travis Kelce.

• Elite talent? Check.
• The top player at his position? Check.
• Exposure to one of the best offenses? Check.
• High VBD (in comparison to other tight ends)? Check.

With 1.5 PPR, Kelce is the clear option. A bad week for Kelce of only four catches and 40 yards is still 10 points, which is pretty good considering that several starting tight ends in fantasy this year will struggle to average that "bad start". As I broke down in the FPC TE PPR Bonus Rule article, only 2-4 tight ends get 80 or more catches a season, and Kelce has averaged 100 catches the past two years and 92 the past four. That is such an advantage that it is hard to beat, and his floor is extremely high. Taking Kelce also forces one of the next teams to take George Kittle, which lets another RB or WR fall back to you with your next pick.

Bob Henry

I'm also taking Kelce, although it's a close call with Michael Thomas as I agree with most of what Dan wrote previously. As he points out, even by my own projections, Thomas outscores Kelce by about 10 points in this format. That said, I'm still going with Kelce because I think I can build a roster with another WR1 and good depth beyond that, but the drop off from Kelce's perch atop the TEs is quite a bit steeper. If you don't take Kelce, you're not getting KIttle either.

It's a close call and I couldn't critique those who opt for Thomas because both players are consistently dominant within their positions and they're both in elite quarterbacks and offenses along with good continuity from last year, which matters considering the lack of offseason reps this summer.

David Dodds

I would take Michael Thomas here, but it's extremely close.

The Dual-flex, tight end premium essentially creates a super-position where RBs/WRs/TEs should nearly be drafted as one position (at least at the start of drafts). My rule of thumb is I am willing to take a running back or tight end if he projects within ten fantasy points of the corresponding wide receiver.

Here are the three-year averages for fantasy points for the elite positions.

• RB1 - 413.4
• RB2 - 348.6
• RB3 - 333.0
• RB4 - 319.5
• RB5 - 306.6
• RB6 - 286.8
• RB7 - 267.9
  
  
• WR1 - 325.0
• WR2 - 304.1
• WR3 - 295.4
• WR4 - 287.4
  
  
• TE1 - 307.6
• TE2 - 288.6

Historical data suggests RB1, RB2, RB3, RB4, WR1 (Thomas), RB5 (Cook or Henry), TE1 (Kelce). My projections also support this same start.

Phil Alexander

I'll go off the board and take Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Over the second half of last season and the playoffs, Damien Williams averaged about 17 total touches per game and 1.2 fantasy points per touch as the Chiefs lead running back.

Given the competition around him, 17 touches per game seems like a safe projection for Edwards-Helaire. If the rookie can come within 10% of Williams' second-half efficiency on those touches, we're looking at roughly 300 PPR fantasy points, which would have tied him with Derrick Henry as the RB5 last year.

There's upside too. What if 17 touches per game is a low touch projection for Edwards-Helaire? What if more of his touches come on receptions than Williams' 3.25 per game over the second half? And what if he's simply way better than Williams? I wouldn't do anything rash like take him No. 1 overall, but I wouldn't dismiss him finishing as the best running back in fantasy football out of hand either.

Andrew Davenport

I'm going to go with Travis Kelce here like most of the guys. My knee-jerk reaction was Michael Thomas, but while it is an extremely close call, I ended up on the Kelce side. The guys have hit the heart of the issue and that's regression. I don't think Thomas is suddenly going to drop off to some huge degree, but it isn't lazy analysis to keep it simple: he set an NFL record in receptions last year, and he did it in style recording 6 more than second place all-time, and 13 more than third place. He will be fine, but he will regress. The other thing is, and this is nitpicking, but he's never had a season over 9 touchdowns. So lop off some receptions, and if he isn't much of a huge touchdown guy in addition, then it points to Kelce.

It has already been noted, but it is worth saying again - Kelce has rock-solid reception totals and last year lagged with only five touchdowns. He hasn't been a producer of end zone trips like a Rob Gronkowski-type, so five isn't a huge outlier, but it is reasonable to project a guy getting 135 targets in the Chiefs offense to score a couple more times in 2020. But really, the bankable reception totals for the half point tight end bonus clinches it for me. I'd take Kelce.

Jordan McNamara

I would avoid Dalvin Cook at the cost, and think Michael Thomas is the target. While tight end premium scoring creates an incentive for drafters to select tight ends earlier, I think this is overstated. What is most important at positions is the baseline, or the amount you are over replacement. With a 1.5 PPR premium for tight ends, the premium applies to all tight ends, elevating the baseline or replacement level along with the entire position. This gives a slight bump to the elite tight ends, but only about .1 or .2 wins over the course of a season compared to standard PPR. Unless it is a premium format to require two tight ends or make tight ends attractive flex options, I'm waiting on the position and taking Thomas.

Andy Hicks

I would take Michael Thomas in a heartbeat here. The thing that bothers me about Travis Kelce here is that he has no upside left at all. Michael Thomas is far and away the leading wide receiver and while 149 catches may not be possible again, he was 45 receptions ahead of the second wide receiver. That is almost 50% more. If he only gets 125, he is still streets the rest of the receiving group. How is this for a thought? He could be even better. He has room for more touchdowns and the yardage figure can be improved on. It’s crazy to think about what he could do if Jameis Winston plays.

Regarding Kelce, once a tight end is over 30, their statistics usually regress -- sometimes slowly, sometimes rapidly. There are several other tight ends that should get within the vicinity of the reception numbers for Kelce, and I’d much rather get Thomas and a tight end with upside than Kelce and a second-tier option with my second pick.

Chris Allen

I'd say Travis Kelce here without too much hesitation. The scoring system already lends itself to boosting tight-end production and there are few tight ends (really only one or two) that will challenge Kelce in target share. Couple that with his connection to Patrick Mahomes II in an offense that passed at the highest rate in neutral game scripts and Kelce becomes a weekly advantage at the position. I don't think Damien Williams' opt-out decision moves Kelce up for me, but it at least strengthens my resolve to pick take him at the 1.05 with confidence he'll meet that value at season's end.

Select Comments from The Shark Pool

jwsbowler

Of these three, I would take Thomas. Way too early for Kelce, and I feel Cook is more of a second-rounder here.

Soulfly3

Anyone passing on Michael Thomas should be banned from the FPC.

FreeBaGeL

Well, ban me now then because I am probably taking Cook here. Maybe Kelce, but not Thomas.

Don't get me wrong I think Thomas will have a great year, but we are due for some pretty reasonable regression from the most receptions in NFL history. The guys who had the second-, third-, and fourth-most receptions in NFL history saw their receptions the next year drop pretty substantially.

• Marvin Harrison: 143 -> 94
• Antonio Brown: 136 -> 106
• Julio Jones: 136 -> 83

I actually expect there is a pretty good chance that Travis Kelce outscores Thomas straight up in that format this year.

Just as importantly, it is just too easy to find wide receivers in FFPC to take one when there are still elite running backs or a difference-making tight end on the board. Looking at FFPC ADP, drafting someone like Thomas over Cook now means you're going to be drafting junk like James White or Marlon Mack over guys like Tyler Boyd later on.

fightingillini

There has been some tough decisions in this series.......but this one isn't.

The pick has to be Thomas.

Cook's injury history is too big to ignore, and MIN has seen that Mattison is pretty good.....I wouldn't be surprised to see Mattison cut into Cook's production more than last year, in order to keep him from breaking down. Kelce is great in this format (and he should be gone with the next pick), but give me 120+ catches, 1450+ yards, and 9-10 TDs. No reason to believe that it will be anything different. Thomas has caught at least 4 passes in every game in his career but ONE. That's right, 63 of 64 games of catching at least 4 passes. He has been durable.....hasn't missed a game in his career. Thomas has averaged 19.3 fantasy points in PPR for his whole career, with his worst year in 2017 where he averaged 16.2 fantasy points while only scoring 5 TDs. What a model of consistency. Such a high floor while also having a high ceiling. Pick him at 1.05 and smile!

JamesTheScot

That's why ill be the contrarian and take Kelce. He's the clear #1 at his position in a format that requires a TE.

Thomas is a near tie but I break the tie in Kelce's favor because he produces even when the other top KC targets are healthy. And I think E.Sanders is going to be a bigger drain on targets in NO than some think. Sanders is going to compliment Brees' old man "smarts" game and is going to be an attractive check down for Brees when Thomas is blanketed. I don't think Thomas is dropping out of the top 10 WR's by any means. But I can see some throws that Brees would have forced to Thomas in years past going to Sanders who is suddenly always open unlike the other prior Saints WR's. Brees is way to smart to force feed Thomas when Sanders is making it easy to keep the chains moving with lower risk.

Duckboy

Good options here, but I’m taking Thomas. I think there’s enough of a gap between the top four running backs and the next level with Cook, and a similar gap from MT to the next level of WRs. Kelce gets some boost for the 1.5 PPR but not enough to move this high.

Cook would be my 1.06 in this format, and Kelce would be late first-rounder depending on what running backs are left at the pick.

Select Comments from Facebook

Zachary T

Very tough call. Now that Cook has reported, he may get the edge. I think Thomas may regress a little. Kelce is really tempting, but Andrews or Ertz in the second or third may be better.

James R

If Cook's contract is worked out, I would take him. He will be a top-five running back. Can't pass that up since running back seems to be thin. I know Thomas will be the consensus pick here, but wide receiver is too deep this year to take one before 1.08

Tom M

Thomas. Cook’s contract situation reminds me too much of LeVeon Bell and Melvin Gordon to feel good about him.

Jeremy V

Cook's contract situation is not like Bell’s. He has not been franchise tagged. This is more like Gordon, and look how that turned out. He will be there for the season. If you’re worried about an injury that is more legitimate.

Richard G

None. I am still spitting beer out of my nose that someone picked Kamara in the first round.

Brian F

Thomas. Cook is not in consideration. I like Kelce in this format but not until late first at the earliest

Justin Y

Dalvin Cook. Simply because of scarcity at the position and because top RBs are already flying off the board. Although his durability issues and his contract throw up some red flags for me, the drop off from Cook to the rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire or Chubb is enough for me to take him. Wide receivers are so deep with tons of upside. Kelce has a lot of value in this format but you could focus on trying to get Kittle in the 2nd or even Ertz in the third who would also have a lot of value.

Tim B

Dalvin Cook. He's going to be a workhorse this year. I'd also work on getting his backup later because he's going to be a workhorse this year.

Ray C

Michael Thomas -- the No. 1 wide receiver easily. At the 2.08 and 3.05, you should be able to still land really solid running backs with those picks to keep balance.

Bob F

Michael Thomas all day every day. Not sure how Kelce made it into this discussion.

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