Eliminator Pool: Week 15

Photo: USA Today Sports

Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com some help in playing office pools, one of the most popular methods to follow the NFL aside from fantasy football leagues. For the past few seasons, both Dave Larkin and I have written the “For The Win” column where Dave attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. This has been a very popular feature, so this year Footballguys once again is presenting the Eliminator Challenge, where staffers have to pick a team to win each week. Just one? That sounds easy, but here is the catch – you can only pick the team you choose in a given week once all season long. Many contests and pools out there get pretty big, so an Eliminator (or Survivor) Pool can go 16 or 17 weeks.

Jeff Pasquino has provided some insight into this kind of contest previously with a preseason strategy article, which describes this kind of contest along with some advice on how to pick a team each week:

Survivor Pool Strategy

This pool will run all season long, but to keep participation up, the pool will crown the staffer with the best W-L record for the season (which means that everyone in the pool will continue to make picks every week).

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

It was a wild Week 14, with an upset by the Eagles over the Saints that cost the group two losses, including the previously undefeated Jordan McNamara. Jordan predicted this possibility last week with his commentary, which highlights why you have to read those every week. Jordan and Jason Wood were joined in the loss column by Andrew Garda, who took the loss along with Carolina at home against Denver in a 32-27 shootout. Those three losses really impacted the standings as now just three Footballguys writers - Sigmund Bloom, Aaron Rudnicki, and Jeff Haseley - remain perfect on the season. Three games remain for the 2020 campaign, and anything can happen (and often does). Every NFL team is back in play the rest of the year, so let's take a look at the possible picks for NFL Week 15.

THIS WEEK'S PICK SUMMARY

Here are the picks for this week.

DISCUSSION

Week 15 is here already, and with just three weeks left in the regular season, all 32 NFL teams will be in action. That means that there are 16 games each week to select from, but with just three picks left and 14 picks in the rearview mirror, the level of difficulty continues to increase. With a full slate of 16 games to select from, there are usually at least a few games to look hard at, even here in December. Similar to last week, it is once again rather remarkable over half of the slate - 10 of 16 games - have teams listed as favorites by six points or more. Here's a quick rundown:

• LA Rams (vs. New York Jets, -16.5 to -17, -1429 to -2000 Money Line)
• Baltimore (vs. Jacksonville, -13.5 to -14, -800 to -1200 Money Line)
• Pittsburgh (at Cincinnati - Monday, -12.5 to -13, -714 to -900 Money Line)
• Tennessee (vs. Detroit, -10.5, -588 to -670 Money Line)
• Green Bay (vs. Carolina - Saturday, -8.5 to -9, -400 to -450 Money Line)
• Indianapolis (vs. Houston, -7 to -7.5, -325 to -345 Money Line)
• Buffalo (at Denver - Saturday, -6.5, -275 to -305 Money Line)
• Arizona (vs. Philadelphia, -6 to -6.5, -265 to -280 Money Line)
• Tampa Bay (at Atlanta, -5.5 to -6, -250 to -278 Money Line)
• Seattle (at Washington, -5.5 to -6, -238 to -260 Money Line)

With 10 games to choose from and several big spreads and Money Lines, that is a significantly large list to pick from for Week 15. Rather than breaking it down by the full group - as many of these teams have been used by most of the staff - let me start by reviewing our three leaders, and what each of them has left. Focusing on the 13 teams in the NFL that have eight or more wins is a good place to start, given that everyone has made 14 picks and has just three to go. Looking at who has the most options left from this group will really shed some light as to who is in the best position to take down this year's title:

Aaron Rudnicki: Aaron has used most of these teams and was able to steal a couple of wins with picks of the Eagles, Chargers, and Raiders. Of his 14 picks so far, 11 of them have been with the teams with 8+ victories this season, but Aaron still has Baltimore and Cleveland left to use. Odds are that he takes Baltimore this week and the Browns (at the Jets) in Week 16, then rolls some dice for Week 17 (potentially Patriots over Jets).

Jeff Haseley: Jeff is in the toughest spot with 12 of 13 winning teams already taken. Wins by Dallas and Minnesota are his best steals on the season, but it is going to be tough to find clear wins the rest of the way. Even if Jeff takes Cleveland next week, he has to find a way to sneak in a win both this week and in the season finale to take at least a share of the title this season. Arizona is my prediction for his pick this week, so let's see what he chooses.

Sigmund Bloom: Bloom is in the best shape here, as he still has the Rams, Buccaneers, Titans, and Browns to choose from - meaning that he has good options and just has to figure out the best times to take these teams over the next three weeks and call it a day. Wins by Dallas, New England, Las Vegas, the Giants, and Minnesota gave Bloom five wins with teams with seven victories or fewer, which gives him a lot of strong picks left for the final three weeks. I expect Bloom to continue to fade the Jets with the Rams this week and the Browns in Week 16, followed by either Tennessee (at Houston) or - more likely - Tampa Bay (hosting Atlanta) in the season finale if he decides to continue to stick with these 13 teams. I give Bloom the best shot at going 17-0 and taking the title.

Of course, anything can happen, but if you are still alive or just a game or two off the pace in your Survivor/Eliminator Pool, it is important to take a look at the top teams and who they have left to choose from, if only to differentiate from their picks. The only way to ensure that is to take a team that they have used already. More on that later in my personal pick comments.

Given that Green Bay (all 22 staffers have used them), Indianapolis (20), the Rams (19), Seattle (19), Pittsburgh (18), Buffalo (17), Tampa Bay (15), and Tennessee (14) have all been selected quite a bit, this looks like a week where many will try and once again use a borderline playoff team in a good spot on the schedule to get a win and move on to the final two weeks. Expect a lot of selections for either Baltimore (10 staffers still have them left) or Arizona (everyone has them available) once all the picks are in for the week.

The picks are coming in late on a Wednesday night and the results are rather close to the prediction once again. Baltimore is the top choice by far with nine staffers on the Ravens to beat Jacksonville, while Cleveland comes in with four selections as the Browns look to bounce back from that tough loss to Baltimore on the road at the Giants in Week 15. Tennessee (3) comes in next, with the Rams and Bills each getting two picks this week. As for our three leaders in the pool, Aaron (Baltimore) and Bloom (Rams) did pick as expected, but Jeff Haseley (Cleveland) chose to go with the Browns at the Giants this week as moderate (-4.5) favorites over New York. Two unique picks round out the week with James Brimacombe finally taking the Steelers while my pick of the Cardinals is all by itself - one of the only ways to possibly catch up in this pool this late. Seven different teams are in the mix this week for the picks, so once again it will be interesting to see how it all plays out by Tuesday morning.

Please note a few things: We will be doing these picks every week, win or lose, to keep it entertaining all season long. Normally a Survivor/Eliminator pool would end once all but one player lost once, but to provide our subscribers with more perspectives, everyone will pick every week even if they lose. That said, we will still try and honor the spirit of an Eliminator/Survivor Pool, trying to win every week and not re-use any teams during the year.

COMMENTARY

Each week, contestants are invited to submit any comments that they might have about their picks. If they submit them early enough, we post them with the article. If not, the comments will be within the section below.

Jeff Pasquino: Once again I am going to focus on Game Theory, as this is a must in these types of contests as the end draws near. Now our contest amongst the staff is guaranteed to go 17 weeks, but your contest may not - so keep that in mind. That said, the logic holds true as described earlier: figure out who the team(s) above you have left and also who they have used, and find good spots to use teams that they have already used and hope that you win and that they lose. Alternatively, if you are ahead, plot out the last three weeks so that you have strong picks for your final three weeks. If you are unsure, see who can catch you and target teams that most are likely to pick so that - in the odd chance two or more teams are all on the same team - you all go up or down the standings together.

Now, as for my pick this week and my plans - I have two teams left available to me (Baltimore and New Orleans) with eight or more wins on the season. The easy path would be to take Baltimore this week and New Orleans either in Week 16 (home against the Vikings) or Week 17 (at Carolina). The concerns here are that (A) a lot of people are going to use Baltimore this week if they can, (B) New Orleans may not have anything to play for in Week 17 (a possibility), and (C) I need to find an alternative team at some point the rest of the way for that third team. I gave some thought to going BAL-NO-NE (home against the Jets), but that seems like the most likely path for most teams, especially Aaron Rudnicki who has both Baltimore and New England left to use. Making up two games in three weeks is going to be quite hard, so the only option I have is to take an alternative team this week and use the Ravens next week (most likely) and then see if the Saints make sense for the season finale.

So, the alternative team for me is going to be... Arizona, a team I circled a few weeks ago when I first started looking at game theory plans. Even though everyone has them available, I think they will be avoided for the most part because Philadelphia just upset the Saints and that will scare everyone away from the Cardinals. I think that this is a mistake because Arizona is in a must-win spot here as they have just two home games left and two big NFC West games to close out the season (home vs. San Francisco next week, at the Rams in Week 17). The Cardinals have to win the next two games and hope that the Rams have nothing to play for in Week 17, but more than likely the Cardinals must win over the Eagles and 49ers to get to 10-5 to ensure a playoff spot. That makes this game a must-win, and while the Eagles looked good at home last week against the Saints, I think New Orleans did not play as well as they could have and that Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia defense got rather lucky with turnovers in the upset. I will take Arizona as a home favorite and a 72-74% win probability based on the -265 to -280 Money Line.

The Pick: Arizona Cardinals

Devin Knotts: This one comes down to whether you're willing to tie with your competitors if you're still in it. If you're still in it with multiple people and are ok with tying, take the opponent of the Jets the rest of the way. However, I'm going with the Tennessee Titans at home against the Lions who can't stop the run this season. Root for the Jets to pull the upset and take home the full prize.

The Pick: Tennessee Titans

Clayton Gray: Usually, it's pretty tough sledding to be confident in a Week 15 pick. But wait! What do I see? Baltimore over Jacksonville! Yes, please!

The Pick: Baltimore Ravens

Jeff Haseley: I really want to take Los Angeles against the Raiders. Las Vegas is a 3.5 point favorite but they are going the wrong direction with injuries to deal with on a short week.

Las Vegas has lost three of their last four games allowing 35, 43, 28, 44 points in those games. This week they will be without the following players...

• Henry Ruggs (COVID)
• Damon Arnette
• Clelin Ferrell
• Jonathan Abram
• Nicholas Morrow
• Takk McKinley

The Raiders have allowed 2+ touchdown passes in five of the last six games and five 300-yard passing games this season but none since Week 11.

After allowing 11 touchdown passes from Week 7-11, the Chargers have buckled down allowing only four in the last four games. The Raiders have allowed seven rushing touchdowns in the last four games including back-to-back 100-yard rushing games to Ty Johnson and Jonathan Taylor.

The Chargers have not allowed a rushing touchdown since Week 11. They have allowed two 100-yard rushing games, but none since Week 7 (James Robinson).

This game screams letdown for Las Vegas.

The other alternative I have is Cleveland at the Giants. It's looking like Colt McCoy might start for the Giants this week and that may be a blessing in disguise for the Giants. Not so much that he's a better quarterback than Daniel Jones, but Jones' hamstring and ankle injury prevent him from being more mobile. Cleveland is a 4.5 point favorite on the road. The strength of their running game may be too much for the Giants to handle. My options are thin this week as more and more teams are no longer eligible for this contest. Cleveland at New York is my first pick, followed by Los Angeles taking out Las Vegas.

The Pick: Cleveland Browns

Sigmund Bloom: This week's pick is simply the Rams - the team playing the Jets.

The Pick: Los Angeles Rams

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com

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