Eliminator Pool: Week 10

Photo: USA Today Sports

Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com some help in playing office pools, one of the most popular methods to follow the NFL aside from fantasy football leagues. For the past few seasons, both Dave Larkin and I have written the “For The Win” column where Dave attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. This has been a very popular feature, so this year Footballguys once again is presenting the Eliminator Challenge, where staffers have to pick a team to win each week. Just one? That sounds easy, but here is the catch – you can only pick the team you choose in a given week once all season long. Many contests and pools out there get pretty big, so an Eliminator (or Survivor) Pool can go 16 or 17 weeks.

Jeff Pasquino has provided some insight into this kind of contest previously with a preseason strategy article, which describes this kind of contest along with some advice on how to pick a team each week:

Survivor Pool Strategy

This pool will run all season long, but to keep participation up, the pool will crown the staffer with the best W-L record for the season (which means that everyone in the pool will continue to make picks every week).

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

Week 9 was relatively uneventful for the staff when the dust had settled, but that does not mean it was not eventful. Pittsburgh, the clear and top pick, did everything they could to lose in Dallas, but somehow came away with a victory. Green Bay (over San Francisco) and Tennessee (vs. Chicago) took care of business, but the staff also survived three close calls for Houston, Kansas City, and even New England on Monday against the Jets. Only Justin Bonnema's pick of Washington (loss at home to the Giants) kept the whole staff from having their second perfect week this year. Nine staffers are still perfect on the year with half of the season already played out, but as mentioned many times, it gets tougher and tougher every week. Week 10 may look like an easy call, but nothing is certain in the NFL. Let's take a look and see what NFL Week 10 will have in store for the staff.

THIS WEEK'S PICK SUMMARY

Here are the picks for this week.

DISCUSSION

Week 10 looks like a slam dunk week with Green Bay at home against Jacksonville. The Packers (-13.5, -850 to -1100 Money Line) should be the top choice in all Survivor and Eliminator Leagues this week, but the odds are that several people may have used Green Bay already at some point before Week 10. That is the case here for the Footballguys' staff, as eight staffers have already used the Packers. So who else should be considered? Three other games have point spreads of a touchdown or more: Pittsburgh (-7.5 to -8, hosting Cincinnati, -360 to -400 Money Line), New Orleans (-9 to -9.5, vs. San Francisco, -385 to -420 Money Line), and Baltimore (-7, at New England, -305 to -330 Money Line). Two more games are between 4 and 6 points, which also should be a consideration for some: Tampa Bay (-4.5 to -5, at Carolina -220 to -240 Money Line) and Las Vegas (-5 to -5.5 vs. Denver, -225 to -240 Money Line). The rest of the games are right around a field goal or less, so expect most of the picks to come from these six options (Green Bay, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Baltimore, Tampa Bay, and Las Vegas).

The picks are in here on Wednesday night, and Green Bay is indeed the top choice. Exactly 12 of the 14 staffers with the Packers left to use went with Green Bay, with just Darin Tietgen and Jason Wood going in other directions. Both of them shared their thoughts in the comments below, so be sure to check those out. As for the other picks that were popular this week, the Saints are expected to keep on marching against San Francisco by six of our staffers in this league, while Las Vegas earned two selections here in Week 10. Two unique picks - Jason Woods' choice of Philadelphia at the New York Giants and Danny Tuccitto's call for Tampa Bay at Carolina - round out the week. Danny is tied with several staffers at 9-0, so it will be interesting to see if his contrarian pick pays off. With five different teams chosen, it could be a pretty slow week come Tuesday, but that's why they play the games.

Please note a few things: We will be doing these picks every week, win or lose, to keep it entertaining all season long. Normally a Survivor/Eliminator pool would end once all but one player lost once, but to provide our subscribers with more perspectives, everyone will pick every week even if they lose. That said, we will still try and honor the spirit of an Eliminator/Survivor Pool, trying to win every week and not re-use any teams during the year.

COMMENTARY

Each week, contestants are invited to submit any comments that they might have about their picks. If they submit them early enough, we post them with the article. If not, the comments will be within the section below.

Jeff Pasquino: This is the week I was saving Green Bay for - home against Jacksonville. Week 10 looked like a tougher call with several teams that are reasonable favorites in divisional matchups (New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Las Vegas) but this is the perfect time to take the Packers - at home against a weak opponent. The Packers are projected to win this game 85-90% of the time, so with those odds, it is an easy call. If you have used the Packers, I would say New Orleans would be the next option as they are playing very well and the 49ers are not. But no question - there will not be a better time to use Green Bay than this week.

The Pick: Green Bay Packers

Jason Wood: I'm taking Philly. As hard as it is to believe, the Eagles and Giants face off this week with the division lead on the line. While neither team is very good, the Eagles are getting healthier and could have the fullest complement of skill players they've had all year. Expect the Eagles to assert themselves as the "Beast of the Least" with authority.

The Pick: Philadelphia Eagles

Jeff Haseley: I'm still alive through nine weeks, and I have already used Green Bay. The next best option for me is either...

• NO vs SF
• LV vs DEN
• PIT vs CIN
• CLE vs HOU

Of those, New Orleans has the greatest line (-9.5) and they play a team out of their division. The Saints are hitting on all cylinders after a big game against the Buccaneers. The 49ers are a well-coached team who were behind the 8-ball last week due to COVID restrictions and a multitude of injuries. They were beaten harshly by Green Bay, but truthfully, many teams would've beaten them that day. Nick Mullens is the starter by default but he could be replaced after another poor outing. The Saints are starting to get their offense back in gear with the return of Michael Thomas, plus their defense has elevated their game. As much as I hate to go against Kyle Shanahan any given week, this seems like the play, but if I recall, I have been burned by the Saints in multiple survivor leagues before. My other gut feeling is playing Cleveland against Houston, but Deshaun Watson is capable of winning any given week, and Cleveland is...well, Cleveland. I'm a bit leery about the Steelers and their performance against Dallas, plus all of the COVID news passing through their team. I feel Ben Roethlisberger will play, but his practice routine will be off this week - plus Cincinnati is a divisional opponent who just knocked off Tennessee. My pick: Saints for win No. 10.

The Pick: New Orleans Saints

Sigmund Bloom: I'll take Las Vegas this week because no matter how much he does in garbage time, Drew Lock is not very good.

The Pick: Las Vegas Raiders

Darin Tietgen: Green Bay has four very winnable games in the next six weeks, so I'm holding on to them. I love how Vegas is playing right now and their remaining schedule gets tougher so I don't see myself being able to use them for the rest of the season. I'd rather hold the Packers for a tougher spot in the coming month.

The Pick: Las Vegas Raiders

Danny Tuccitto: Of the nine favorites available to me, I whittled down my options to three: Philadelphia, Las Vegas, and Tampa Bay. Across the various prediction models out there, Philadelphia had the lowest average win probability (60%). They also finish the season against two of the worst teams in the league (at Dallas in Week 16 and vs. Washington in Week 17), so the opportunity exists to use an even healthier, playoff stretch-motivated version of this Eagles team down the road. Therefore, I eliminated them from consideration.

Las Vegas had the next-lowest average win probability (62%) and arguably the most favorable matchup (i.e., at home against a Bottom 8 Broncos team). My reasons for passing on the Raiders were three-fold. First, the stats-based rankings out there -- Pro Football Reference's SRS, Fivethirtyeight's ELO, Pro Football Focus' ELO, Football Outsiders DVOA, etc. -- show that the gap between Las Vegas and Denver isn't as big as their records indicate. Second, the Raiders defense is abysmal by almost any measure, which means the Broncos could easily either build an early lead or come back late. The third and final reason is that Las Vegas still has the Jets and Broncos (again) left on their schedule.

So at the end of the day, I went with the Buccaneers. At 67% they had the highest average win probability amongst my three finalists. Also, of the teams I could choose from, this is the only instance of a Top 10 team facing a Bottom 10 team. Granted Tampa Bay's on the road, but it seems as though home-field advantage doesn't exist as much this year.

Another obvious concern is these teams' respective performances last week; namely Tampa Bay getting crushed by New Orleans and Carolina nearly upsetting Kansas City. Here's the thing, though. The Saints defense was able to dominate because of their pass rush, a well-worn strategy against Tom Brady. The combination of a top-five Adjusted Sack Rate (per Football Outsiders) and Tampa Bay missing guard Ali Marpet led to a mismatch that Brady couldn't overcome. No such problem should exist against Carolina, as Marpet is slated to return to the lineup and Carolina's defense ranks 26th in adjusted sack rate (ASR). Taken together, I think, if not for a bit of recency bias based on what happened in Week 9, the line would be much larger in favor of the Buccaneers, and I'll take that bit of arbitrage.

The Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com

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