Here we are again this year, back for more NFL picks. It is with great pleasure that I begin my second season writing this column. As someone who has won and lost their fair share of money on the NFL (and many other sports), this is bound to be a fun and unpredictable ride. Join me, won’t you?
As with the format in previous years, this article will help those of you who compete in confidence pools and in ranking selections, which may come in handy on those Las Vegas trips. Games are rated based on preference for both the point spread and other angles (such as totals or over/unders) with 1-3 “Stars”, which basically highlight the best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars are not preferred one way or the other, but will still be covered, discussed and a winner will be predicted for those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools.
Every dog has its day, and certainly, that was the case in Week 8. Underdogs went 9-4 against the spread, with the Bengals, Vikings, Steelers, Dolphins, and Broncos all winning straight up to boot. In this column, our bets went 8-6 overall, a solid return that was a few bounces here and there away from a better outcome. Week 9 is upon us already, with some typically intriguing lines and scenarios to delve into.
Note that the over/unders are taken from VegasInsider.com
(Thursday Night) GREEN BAY (-2.5) at SAN FRANCISCO (Over/Under 51)
Last Sunday’s loss to the Vikings marked Green Bay head coach Matt LaFleur’s first loss in the NFC North since taking over. It was an ugly one, with Dalvin Cook ripping the Packers defense to shreds on the hallowed turf of Lambeau Field. Now, on a short week, the Packers must return to the site of their punishing defeat in last season’s NFC Championship game -- a contest that saw the 49ers’ relentless rushing attack steamroll the Green Bay resistance.
However, a slew of injuries to key 49ers players this past week – Jimmy Garoppolo, George Kittle, and Tevin Coleman, most notably – has left Kyle Shanahan with little to work with. The young head coach will have to work his magic with scant time to prepare. Nick Mullens is a serviceable quarterback, but he is prone to basic errors too, so the -2.5 line in the road team’s favor makes sense. Interestingly, the look-ahead line for this game was a pick'em, meaning the injury bug has firmly shifted Vegas’ opinion. The 49ers have gone just 1-3 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) at home this season, so the Packers look like a nice bet if you can get it before it reaches -3.
Pick: Green Bay
NY GIANTS at WASHINGTON (-3.5) (Over/Under 43)
The Giants deserve a lot of credit for scratching and clawing their way to a respectable game against the much-touted Buccaneers. And yet, despite that effort, one cannot help but feel that Daniel Jones’ turnovers are holding back the entire team. They come at inopportune moments and are often not the result of excellent defense, but rather ill-advised decisions. At times, the play-calling on Monday night was emblematic of what the coaching staff thought of Jones: safe, quick releases that minimized exposure.
Washington lost by just one point in the previous meeting this season, so they should not be fearful of their division rivals. In fact, the week off will have given the coaching staff time to recalibrate things and prepare for a run-in that could feature a legitimate fight for a playoff berth. The 3.5-point line gives a bit of pause, but the Giants offensive line – and Jones’ errors – make it worth the punt against a strong Washington front.
Pick: Washington
CHICAGO at TENNESSEE (-5.5) (Over/Under 46.5)
Nick Foles’ lack of mobility is prompting calls from some desperate corners of Bears Twitter for the return of – surely not? – Mitchell Trubisky. There were several plays during the Saints game that a more mobile quarterback would have been able to make something of. Not Foles. The former Super Bowl champion is playing a brand of football that is of another generation, and one wonders how long his leash really is with Matt Nagy. Listed as six-point road underdogs, Vegas is clearly making a statement that the trust is now gone in the Bears.
Perhaps Tennessee’s loss to Cincinnati will look more respectable as the Bengals start stacking victories towards the season’s end. Or perhaps it will be a situation of what could have been for Mike Vrabel’s team, who were fancied to take care of business. Derrick Henry and the offensive line certainly found their groove, but third down inefficiencies and key turnovers cost them dearly. The take-home message is that they were not that far away, but defensively they have many exploitable areas. Fortunately, the Bears are hopelessly inept on offense and will not pose much of a problem. Even with the steep -5.5 line, it is hard to look past the home team.
Pick: Tennessee
DETROIT at MINNESOTA (-4) (Over/Under 54)
The Vikings under Mike Zimmer have been strong ATS as home favorites, covering 61.5% of the time for a 24-15-1 record since 2014. That might go some way to explaining Vegas’ four-point line in what is ostensibly a match-up of two evenly matched teams. Neither will be taking a place in the postseason if things play out as expected, but the Lions have more to play for and are still not buried yet.
The problem for Detroit is that they seem unable to get up for a big game that they need to win. Last week against the Colts was an utter disappointment in all phases, so it would be fair to expect a bounce-back against the Vikings. The trust factor is still low with this team, however, giving the home team a slight edge. The over might be the best option from a wagering perspective, considering how fragile both defenses have been this season. As for the side, it is a reluctant lean to Detroit getting the four points.
Pick: Detroit
CAROLINA at KANSAS CITY (-10.5) (Over/Under 51)
The Panthers laid an egg in their previous game on Thursday night, letting Julio Jones run wild and showing they are further away than the consensus in the media would have you believe. After all, it was not too long ago that Matt Rhule’s team was trending, the talk of the town. That narrative has shifted, with defenses beginning to figure out Teddy Bridgewater’s fatal flaw: internal pressure. Bridgewater has taken several critical sacks in the past two games due to pressure up the middle. Expect Steve Spagnuolo to cook up some creative blitzes to exploit it.
The Chiefs have been one of the most reliable covers this season (6-2 ATS) even as Vegas continues to place a points spread tax on them. This week, the bar for Patrick Mahomes II and company is 10.5, not insurmountable by any means against a Panthers defense that lacks experience and star power. Carolina has had extra time to prepare, but they will need to pull all their tricks out of the basket to stay with Kansas City. Rhule’s team has fared well as an underdog this season, however, going 4-2 ATS. This is a fair line, but one that Carolina can cover.
Pick: Carolina
HOUSTON (-6.5) at JACKSONVILLE (Over/Under 51.5)
No Gardner Minshew, no problem? We are about to find out. The hirsute quarterback will miss this clash with division rival Houston due to a foot injury, forcing either Mike Glennon or Jake Luton into action. Neither replacement inspires much confidence, prompting Vegas to slap a 6.5-point line on this game. Houston’s season may be over as far as the playoff hunt, but getting a feel-good road win will do their confidence good coming off a bye.
The Jaguars have gone 2-4 ATS this season as the underdog, with a series of unfortunate events conspiring to see them finish up in the ‘L’ column every week. The under 51.5 looks like a decent bet here, despite the obvious dangers of Houston’s offense getting into a rhythm and creaming the Jaguars from pillar to post. The advice here is to avoid the -6.5, which is a little prohibitive, and focus on the total. The lean, however, remains with Houston.
Pick: Houston
BALTIMORE (-3) at INDIANAPOLIS (Over/Under 45)
Losses to Kansas City and Pittsburgh have put Baltimore behind the eight-ball as far as securing a higher seed in the AFC playoffs. Few doubt that the Ravens will make it to the dance; the question is, who might their partner be, and will these early-season defeats doom them to a first-round exit? Lamar Jackson has not been playing at 2019 levels this season, but that was an unsustainable standard that was destined to take a dip. However, he has started to make basic errors – such as the pick-six last week – that have dug an unnecessary hole for his offense. This should be a fascinating test for the young passer up against a Colts defense that, with Darius Leonard back, will create a bit of havoc.
The Indianapolis offense surpassed 40 points last week in Detroit, a statement of intent after spluttering into life in previous weeks. Playing in the cozy confines of Lucas Oil Stadium, Philip Rivers has a decent shot at keeping this game competitive. The Ravens defense is a nasty unit, so he may be forced to dink and dunk his way throughout. The combination of the Indianapolis defense and a mistake-free game from Rivers could be enough.
Pick: Indianapolis
SEATTLE (-3) at BUFFALO (Over/Under 54.5)
The Seahawks responded well last Sunday, albeit against a banged-up 49ers squad, to re-establish their dominance in the NFC West. At 6-1, however, they still have just a one-game lead over both the Rams and Cardinals, so every game counts. Pete Carroll’s team is 8-4-1 ATS on the road stretching back to last season, so a road trip to western New York will not faze them. Vegas has them as three-point favorites, a nod to Buffalo’s inconsistencies.
Indeed, the Bills have not covered in their last four games and, despite being 6-2, are on a downward trend as far as their overall play. Sean McDermott will hope this fallow patch of the season is just a blip and that better things are ahead for Josh Allen and company down the stretch. The defense has not been playing well of late, and it will be interesting to see if the Seahawks ground attack will be relied upon to wear down Buffalo, just as the Patriots did last week.
Pick: Seattle
DENVER at ATLANTA (-4) (Over/Under 50)
The Broncos enjoy being the underdog, going 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games in that spot. Encouragingly, Drew Lock showed some rhythm, timing, and confidence last week, sparking a bit of much-needed optimism among the Broncos faithful. In the cozy confines of the dome, Lock and his receivers should be able to find exploitable areas against a suspect Falcons pass defense.
Atlanta is 0-4 ATS at home this season, so the decision to make them four-point favorites is a little puzzling. The logic could be that they are due a cover at home, but they have already shown us their DNA on multiple occasions: why shouldn’t we believe them? The total crept up a few points from 47.5 to 50, so the crowd is expecting points in bunches. If it plays out like that, the safer side of that bet is Denver.
Pick: Denver
LAS VEGAS at LA CHARGERS (-1.5) (Over/Under 52.5)
The Raiders (4-3) may not catch the Chiefs (7-1) in the AFC West, but they need to keep stacking wins to remain a factor in the crowded AFC playoff picture. A clash against the frustratingly Jekyll and Hyde Chargers will be a tough test, despite the record of Anthony Lynn’s team. With weather no issue like last week in Cleveland, this could be a game where Derek Carr and his receivers get unleashed. Indeed, the over in Raiders games this season has gone 5-1-1.
With Justin Herbert running the show, the Chargers have also gone ‘over’ in their last four, so that bet looks like a decent one before the total creeps up too much. Despite their 2-5 record, all is not yet lost for the Chargers. A late-season surge, as unlikely as that may be considering their propensity to squander leads, is still possible with the talent on the roster. As the line suggests, this should be a close game, and in those scenarios, it is always best to take the points.
Pick: Las Vegas
PITTSBURGH (-13.5) at DALLAS (Over/Under 42)
The Steelers remain the league’s lone undefeated team and have demonstrated an ability to win in a variety of ways. This week, against a reeling Cowboys team, not even Mike Tomlin’s penchant for playing down to their level of competition will stop them. Installed as 13.5-point favorites, this is not an attractive option to bet. Even a six-point teaser would only take it down to -7.5, when we ideally want to be playing through the seven.
Andy Dalton tested positive for coronavirus this week, but it will not be Ben DiNucci starting. Instead, the Cowboys will reportedly choose between Garrett Gilbert and Cooper Rush. Regardless of who is taking snaps, it will not matter. The Steelers defense will feast on the Cowboys throughout, so if you must lean to one side, make it the men from Pittsburgh.
Pick: Pittsburgh
MIAMI at ARIZONA (-4.5) (Over/Under 48.5)
The Dolphins are on a 14-5 ATS run since early 2019 and are 12-3 in their last 15 as the underdog. Brian Flores has quietly gone about his business in turning this roster from an afterthought into respectability, with the defense picking up the slack last week in the impressive win over the Rams. That unit will be tested constantly this week against the up-tempo attack of Kyler Murray, but Flores has shown a penchant for formulating effective game plans to stifle passers.
Despite the high-flying nature of their offense, the Cardinals are on an 8-3-1 under run, so that might be a good side to wager on. Arizona is getting a lot of respect from Vegas with a 4.5-point line, but they seem to have turned the corner since their early season swoon. The big unknown here is how Tua Tagovailoa will perform if forced to drop back 25+ times. Even with the uncertainty, the smart play here is to take the generous points on offer and get the popcorn ready.
Pick: Miami
(Sunday Night) NEW ORLEANS at TAMPA BAY (-5) (Over/Under 51.5)
The book is out on Drew Brees. His dwindling arm strength was plain for all to see last week in the Saints’ first outdoor game of the season, forcing Sean Payton to cook up creative ways to attack. Even still, the Saints are squeaking out victories – their last two coming by three points apiece against Carolina and Chicago. That might go some way to explaining why Vegas has the Bucs as five-point favorites, with the market perhaps not buying what the Saints are selling.
The Bucs had to battle hard for a victory on Monday night, and perhaps they were guilty of looking past the Giants a little bit. Regardless, they showed the versatility of their offense, the ferocity of their defense, and that they can win in a multitude of ways, much like their AFC counterparts Pittsburgh. Bruce Arians is on a 17-7 ‘over’ run with the Bucs, while the Saints have gone 5-1 to the ‘over’ in their last six against Tampa Bay. That looks like a good angle, considering the -5 line is not the most attractive.
Pick: New Orleans
(Monday Night) NEW ENGLAND (-7) at NY JETS (Over/Under 42.5)
The Patriots laying just seven points on the road against the Jets seems too good to be true, but we must remind ourselves that this is not the juggernaut of old. At 2-5 after last week’s heartbreaker in Buffalo, Bill Belichick’s team is playing to stay relevant. They should stick to the familiar script of 2020: a heavy dose of the ground game, Cam Newton moving the chains with his legs and short passes, and a decent defensive effort.
As for the Jets, they are 1-7 ATS this season and must face up to the possibility of a one-win or possibly no-win season, forcing an organizational reset. Sam Darnold will hope to avoid ‘seeing ghosts’ as he did in a previous meeting on Monday night. The offense is unlikely to find a much-needed rhythm against their division rivals. The under has gone 10-4 in the last 14 Jets games, so that looks like the best angle of attack. A six-point teaser to get the Patriots down to -1 is also appealing.
Pick: New England
BEST BETS
Once again this year this article will give out not only the Best Bets but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 Star scale. The more stars, the bigger the emphasis on that side of the game.
It proved to be more of a mix of a week with the best bets, with the Green Bay result causing problems for many. With lines getting more efficient as the weeks go by, however, we have to remain focused and stick to the process. This week, we will focus our bets around the following lines:
- 1 CAROLINA (+10.5) at KANSAS CITY
- 2 INDIANAPOLIS (+3) vs. BALTIMORE
- 3 SEATTLE (-3) at BUFFALO
- 4 NEW ORLEANS (+5) at TAMPA BAY
With these likes in mind, here are the Week 9 selections:
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- 2-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (0.67-1 ODDS)
- NEW ENGLAND (-1)
- HOUSTON (-0.5)
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- DOUBLE DOG (2.28-1 ODDS):
- CAROLINA (+10.5)
- INDIANAPOLIS (+3)
- 2-TEAM UNDER DOUBLE (2.61-1 ODDS):
- NEW ENGLAND/NY JETS – UNDER 42.5
- MIAMI/ARIZONA – UNDER 48.5
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- 3-TEAM MEGA MONEY LINE (8.15-1 ODDS)
- DENVER – FOR THE WIN
- INDIANAPOLIS – FOR THE WIN
- WASHINGTON – FOR THE WIN
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: Carolina, Indianapolis, Seattle, New Orleans, Denver
RESULTS
Last Week / Season
- LAST WEEK: 8-6
- SEASON OVERALL: 66-51-2 (56.7%)
- BEST BETS: 17-14-1, last week 2-2 (56.3%)
- PICK OF THE WEEK: 21-19-1, last week 2-3 (53%)
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to larkin@footballguys.com
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