With four games complete for dynasty teams, the sample size is growing enough to establish strength of schedule trends to improve the dynasty trade market timing, and lineup usage, for optimal value. Here is a look at the most glaring schedule splits:
Running Games
Moving Up
49ers
Raheem Mostert is trending towards returning in Week 5 after Jerick McKinnon and Jeffery Wilson held down the backfield in Mostert's absence. A tough opening month of the season with rushing efficiency matchups flips on its head as one of the easiest in the NFL for the next four weeks. Mostert returning makes selling McKinnon more difficult for anything more than a Round 2 pick (which I would still do). As a buyer, Mostert is unlikely to be added for another less than a Round 1 pick.
Buccaneers
Leonard Fournette and LeSean McCoy are on the mend, paving the way for Ronald Jones II to exploit at least some of the more optimistic schedule less contested. Jones is unlikely to return a Round 1 pick presently, but another game or two similar to Week 4 (add a touchdown or two) and Jones will be on that track. Fournette may be available for a Round 2 pick and a player added with Jones the current starter.
Colts
Jonathan Taylor was in the crosshairs of criticism this week after a single-digit performance in Week 4, despite showing well through tape analysis. Taylor is an exploratory buy this week from, say, Joe Mixon or possibly getting Taylor+ for Clyde Edwards-Helaire. The Colts run game schedule gets notably easier over the next month.
Broncos
Like the 49ers, Denver likely gets a significant piece back in Week 5 with Phillip Lindsay. The schedule gets easy after a tough stretch to open the season. Melvin Gordon will be tough to get more than a 1st as a seller where this backfield is optimized for fantasy upside with a clarifying injury, which Lindsay previously provided. Royce Freeman is a tough dynasty hold in leagues with fewer than 28 roster spots, but has a quality profile and could be a trade candidate in the coming weeks if another team sustains an injury.
Titans
Tennessee is battling COVID-19 cases after a postponed Week 4 game but enjoys a more optimistic rushing slate over the next month. Darrynton Evans is the value play here, likely available for a 3rd round pick, or added to a bigger deal. With next to nothing else behind Henry, Evans would vault to high-RB2 (or better) numbers and potentially a 1st round rookie pick valuation if Henry were to miss a chunk of the season.
Falcons
Todd Gurley is a big picture dynasty sell recommendation, but Week 4 was only the start of a quality stretch matchup-wise as Atlanta has the easiest run game schedule over the next month in the entire NFL. Gurley's lack of receiving usage (plus Atlanta's struggling defense rarely halting negative game scripts) is a limiting factor. While dynasty teams should be safe to hold and start Gurley in the coming few games, a 1st is possible in the market this week and a down game or two (or injury) will vanquish the possible exit price.
Texans
David Johnson had a tough early-season road between Houston's schedule, game script, plus now a coaching/GM change. Johnson is a strong bounce-back candidate in October, however, with an easy matchup slate. As a contender, holding unless getting a 1st from the market is recommended.
Football Team
Antonio Gibson has been one of the under-the-radar running backs (as well as among rookies) in the opening month. This despite a tough schedule about to turn easy. Gibson is easily worth a 1st and only contemplating selling if a high 2021 1st (or pivoting to a Cam Akers-D'Andre Swift-J.K. Dobbins type) return is the end result.
Jets
While Sam Darnold is out Week 5, LeVeon Bell is on track to return to a much easier schedule than the opening month of the season. Frank Gore, if he was not already, can be returned to the dynasty waiver wire and Bell is a solid target player for contending teams in the zone of a 2nd round pick, adding a short-term or flip player if necessary. The Jets are getting healthy (outside of Darnold) with Jamison Crowder back and Breshad Perriman (and hopefully Denzel Mims) shortly to follow.
Moving Down
Ravens
Mark Ingram has already been a concern with his squeezed weekly snap count in this three-headed committee for RB2 or flex lineup usage. Now, the schedule turns difficult in the second month of the season and both Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins are producing more given their touches. Ingram is a tough sell for even a 2nd and Edwards is out on some shallow-to-moderate waiver wires. The backfield will lack lineup clarity unless an injury thins the group. The upcoming schedule does not help either.
Cardinals
Kenyan Drake is off to arguably one of the most disappointing running back starts to the season considering the level of the Arizona offense overall and the consensus market breakout expectations for Drake himself. Their average-level run game matchups over the first four games turns tough over the next quartile. Drake has just five receptions this season and will struggle to return a 1st in the trade market. He is worth holding over dealing for a 2nd.
Bengals
After a career day in Week 4 with 42 PPR points, Joe Mixon's market is far more liquid this week as one of the most traded players overall on Myfantasyleague.com. This is the sell window for Mixon, if interested, as the schedule turns tough over the next month and pivoting to Jonathan Taylor, possibly Saquon Barkley, Nick Chubb, Josh Jacobs, or ideas like Cam Akers-D'Andre Swift-J.K. Dobbins plus a 1st are options.
Panthers
Christian McCaffrey's return date from his high ankle injury is still a question mark, and Mike Davis has been a fantasy revelation in his absence. The schedule turns difficult for the Carolina run game to soften Davis' starting projection in the next few weeks and make McCaffrey's opening game back or two tricky. As a contender, selling Davis for a 2nd is tough considering his impact to-date, high-level market share of the backfield, plus the variable of McCaffrey aggravating a pesky injury for any skill position player. Davis seeing a handful more starts this season is in-play depending on McCaffrey's transition to play and staying on the field after the fact. Davis is a sell for a 1st, but not for a 2nd.
Steelers
James Conner returned to his starting perch earlier this season but the Steelers' run game schedule turns brutal over the next month. An RB1-type role could yield RB2-type production as a result. Conner is a quality contender hold as bye weeks start. Benny Snell is on the dynasty roster fringe in formats of less than 25 roster spots and Anthony McFarland is a strong stash after a flash-filled debut in Week 3.
Lions
Adrian Peterson continues to have a quality role on the three-headed committee depth chart. However, D'Andre Swift is monopolizing most of the passing game production. Peterson is tough to sell for even a 3rd and Swift is one of the better buys (see above pivoting from Joe Mixon or Antonio Gibson as examples). Like Baltimore, Detroit's backfield needs missed time by one back to clarify touches and more predictable production for anything more than flex lineup consideration. Their previously average-level opening month of matchup strength turns tough over the next four weeks.
Patriots
Sony Michel missed Week 4 and is set to miss more games. On the flip side, James White is back from a leave of absence and Damien Harris posted 100 yards in his season debut after a mere four touches overall in a lost 2019 rookie season. Hold out for a 1st if exploring the sell market on Harris, who is likely to be squeezed by White and Rex Burkhead in the passing game, plus Cam Newton near the goal line. Michel is a dynasty afterthought at this point where getting a 2nd and an injury-away running back in return is a tall order. The Patriots' previously easy run game schedule to opening the season gets far more difficult over the next month.
Eagles
Miles Sanders as generally been underutilized through the opening month and the schedule turns more difficult in the short term. A single touchdown overall and topping out with 36 receiving yards in any game has limited Sanders compared to his 2019 rookie season infused with six games of at least 40 receiving yards and three games of 70 or more. Sanders is lost in the dynasty market shuffle between the elite backs and the rest. With Boston Scott and Corey Clement likely splitting fill-in duties if Sanders were out, both have middling dynasty roster appeal outside of 28+ player rosters.
