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Introduction
Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest-growing daily fantasy sites and offers a unique product that is a lot of fun. There are no salary caps and you do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less. Since each combination (two or more players) are playing in the same game, we can use correlation to our advantage. For example, if we know that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback is more likely to throw for more yards also.
In this weekly article, we will count down the five best props of the week, saving the best for last.
Looking back at last week
Last Week:+11.5
Overall Season (+26 units)
We came just short of a perfect week for the second time in the last month. Only Stafford with a backdoor cover late kept us from hitting on all 10 props.
Hits
- We had over 13.5 fantasy points for Antonio Gibson and over 14.5 fantasy points for Amari Cooper. Both flew over those numbers.
- We had the unders on passing yards in the Giants-Bengals game. Both went safely under.
- We had unders on Josh Jacobs and Julio Jones before he scratched.
- We got ahead of the news in Denver by taking Michael Thomas (-17.5 receiving yards) over Tim Patrick and Taysom Hill over Lock.
Misses
- We had Deshaun Watson (-24.5) more passing yards than Matthew Stafford and Will Fuller (-3.5) more receiving yards than Brandin Cooks on Thanksgiving. Fuller crushed Cooks and Watson was crushing Stafford before a couple of garbage time drives brought Stafford to within 23 passing yards of Watson. Bad beat here.
Number 5: Passing Overs Atlanta
Matt Ryan over 265.5 passing yards
Taysom Hill over 179.5 passing yards
- One of our biggest edges on Monkey Knife Fight is the ability to use correlation to our advantage. We can do that here by taking the over for both quarterbacks.
- This 45.5-point total is the lowest we have had in this rivalry in many, many years. It is understandable given how the defenses of both teams have been playing but the bet here is that there is still a decent chance this turns into a little bit of a shootout with both teams having modest success through the air.
- Taysom Hill’s passing yardage total of just 179.5 is giving us a lot of value because it is being skewed lower due to the fact that Hill threw for just 78 yards last week. In the most 2020 game of the season, Hill was matched up against a practice squad wide receiver for the Broncos. Take any stats from this game with a massive grain of salt.
- Even with the Falcons scoring just nine points and having a long touchdown pass called back due to holding, Hill threw for 233 yards against this same Falcons defense two weeks ago.
#Saints @ Falcons key matchups - What could stop Taysom Hill? Taysom Hill. https://t.co/d3zfG88kaf pic.twitter.com/KWiihsNhqC
— Canal St. Chronicles (@SaintsCSC) December 3, 2020
- While Matt Ryan has had a couple of down passing weeks, there is still a lot of value on the over of 265.5 passing yards. Over the last two seasons, he has gone over 265.5 yards in 19-of-26 starts (73%).
- Ryan has 24 starts against the Saints in his career and has averaged 295 passing yards in those games.
- In the last decade, he has thrown for 300+ yards in 11-of-20 games (55%) against New Orleans.
Number 4: Opposite Directions
Brandon Allen under 210.5 passing yards
DeVante Parker over 71.5 receiving yards
- This is not a correlation play but we are putting our money on the direction of these two seasons continuing on their current trajectory.
- Brandon Allen was a disaster in his first start for the Bengals. His adjusted yards per attempt was 3.83 against the Giants last week. Allen threw for 136 total yards and almost half of that yardage came in the final minutes.
- The Giants pass defense that dominated Allen ranks 25th in DVOA. The Dolphins 10th-ranked pass defense will be an even stiffer test.
- With Joe Burrow out, it feels like the Bengals have thrown in the towel on the season. The best thing that could happen for this franchise would likely be losing out to secure a franchise left tackle. Or better yet, a pick that a quarterback-needy team would overpay for in trade.
- There is also a non-zero chance that Allen could be pulled for Ryan Finley if he has another bad first half.
- DeVante Parker saw 14 targets and produced an 8-119-0 line last week and Week 13 should be more of the same.
Flores' view of the importance of separation and receivers? He says it depends on the player. Says in the case of a DeVante Parker, if a guy is on his back, "His arm length is the separation."
— Hal Habib (@gunnerhal) December 2, 2020
- Parker is the only truly proven wide receiver on the roster right now for the Dolphins and Ryan Fitzpatrick has always been a quarterback who will throw it up to his top target regardless of the coverage.
Number 3: The Fuller Impact
Philip Rivers under 280.5 passing yards
Deshaun Watson under 275.5 passing yards
- We are going with a classic correlation play here taking the under for both quarterbacks in this head-to-head matchup.
- The loss of Will Fuller is a big deal for this Houston passing offense that is already without Randall Cobb and David Johnson.
Deshaun Watson w/ Will Fuller:
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) December 1, 2020
🔹 26.1 fantasy points per game
🔹 8.8 yards per attempt
Without Will Fuller:
🔸 22 fantasy points per game
🔸 7.3 yards per attempt
Read @Ihartitz QB rankings for Wk 13https://t.co/DeQ9ygJWqY
- Coming into 2020, Deshaun Watson had averaged just 222 passing yards per start without Will Fuller.
- Indianapolis has held opposing quarterbacks under 250 yards in 8-of-11 games this season.
- The Indianapolis rushing defense failed completely without defensive tackle DeForest Buckner last week, allowing 229 yards and 4 touchdowns in a blowout loss to the Titans.
- The path of least resistance against the Texans is also on the ground. Houston is giving up 154.7 rushing yards per game (2nd most in the NFL). With Jonathan Taylor returning from a brief absence due to exposure to the virus, expect a very run-heavy approach for the Colts on Sunday.
- Philip Rivers is limping around with a foot injury and playing at less than 100%. Even more reason to believe the Colts come out hell-bent on establishing the run.
Number 2: Easy points from PPR Backs
Austin Ekeler over 16.5 fantasy points
James White over 10.5 fantasy points
- Austin Ekeler has played three games with Justin Herbert this season. He has 20+ touches in each of those games and had 129+ total yards in each game.
- Ekeler saw a whopping 16 targets last week in his first game back from a hamstring injury. In his last two full games, Ekeler has 22 catches for 169 yards. That is good for 19.5 fantasy points per game just on receptions and receiving yards. He is also going to see 10-15 carries.
Will Austin Ekeler finish as the highest scoring RB for the rest of the season? @MattHarmon_BYB's Week 13 Metrics Notebook âž¡ï¸ https://t.co/ein3qghmVu pic.twitter.com/LWwtLTtBb2
— Yahoo Fantasy Sports (@YahooFantasy) December 3, 2020
- James White has seen his snaps increase since the season-ending Rex Burkhead injury. While he is still a part-time player, he has played 59 snaps over the past two weeks.
- Two weeks ago, White saw 9 targets and last week cashed in two red zone rushing touchdowns. He has multiple paths to double-digit fantasy points and would project for a bigger role if the Chargers can get out to a lead.
- This is a sneaky correlation play because if either of these backs has a strong fantasy outing, it increases the chances of the other also succeeding.
Number 1: Offense in Detroit-Chicago
David Montgomery over 14.5 fantasy points
Marvin Jones over 10.5 fantasy points
- Our consensus projections have Montgomery scoring 15.6 fantasy points, so there is some value on the over.
- Montgomery has more receiving upside in the current iteration of the Bears offense than he may get credit for. In his last seven games, he is averaging 5.6 targets per game. That puts him in elite company at the running back position.
David Montgomery's Week 12 usage in his first game back from the concussion:
— Frank Stampfl (@Roto_Frank) November 30, 2020
85% snaps
39 routes (season high)
85% of RB carries
86% of RB targets
16 touches
143 total yards
1 receiving touchdown
- The Lions are giving up the most fantasy points in the NFL to opposing running backs. They have allowed 21 total touchdowns to opposing backs, 14 rushing and 7 receiving.
- Detroit has given up more than 14.5 fantasy points to the opposing starting running back in eight straight games.
- With Kenny Golladay expected to miss another game, Marvin Jones is a virtual lock to see a heavy workload. He has seen 28 targets over the last three weeks.
- Our consensus projections have Jones at 12.1 fantasy points this weekend, giving us significant value at the 10.5 number.